jh816 has left 170 comments

jh816 comments on Protests at the university of antioquia

I had a few english students from U of A. They missed a huge amount of school because the STUDENTS were striking. Crazy. Basically, the government wants to privatize some of the public universities and the students went batshit. Couldn't believe it though. Students striking. Fine, don't want to go to class, then fail, but don't prohibit other students from attending.

jh816 comments on Colombia changes debt denomination to pesos

sorry, late night typing. The FTA I was talking about was the talks with Canada. Info is from Reuters.

jh816 comments on Wow Peso up a bit

Some of the sources lag a day and aren't very dependable. Usually reuters, bloomberg, or yahoo are pretty dependable for quickly-revised rates though yahoo's charts are not to be trusted

jh816 comments on Wow Peso up a bit

It is good for the Col economy. Oil is priced in dollars, not only does a weak dollar drive the price of oil up to keep relative value, but investors flock to the commodity as a safe haven. When we talk about importers, we are not only talking about Juan and Maria from down the block. We are talking companies that import their computers, capital equipment, whatever. They are now able to update their equipment at a much lower cost because import prices have come down "you want the paso to stay steady while the dollar falls off the cliff" sorry this doesn't make much sense. If the dollar falls, the peso will strengthen relative to the dollar. It is just the other side of the same transaction

jh816 comments on Wow Peso up a bit

The government's, through the central bank, role is inflation control and employment. By increasing controls on foreign direct investment, they are hurting employment. Yeah, less fdi may weaken the peso and help the export sector but this is an indirect relationship. FDI has a direct relationship with employment, and is more likely to create jobs. The inflation problem has less to do with the peso revaluation and more to do with global commodity prices. Besides, as you pointed out, the average colombian isn't buying the big screen tv. Their canasta of daily goods is mostly colombian made and has less to do with strength in the peso. As far as becoming less competitive in the global market, that's globalization. Part of global trade is hedging your currency risk and continuously improving your product and processes to avoid problems like they are having. Check the World Bank figures. Colombian companies have done very little to increase productivity over the last 5 years and the rest of the world is passing them by. There are structural and cultural issues that need to be addressed or the Colombian exporter will be hurting even more than they are now.

jh816 comments on Wow Peso up a bit

Regardless of who is helped or hurt by the strength in the Peso, unless it is a drastic and unforseen change, the government should not intervene. Changing economic policy to weaken the peso (ie, capital controls on foreign investment is only going to deprive Colombia of the economic momentum it has. Instead, they should be addressing the real issue, why can't Colombian companies compete when the peso strengthens?

jh816 comments on Wow Peso up a bit

If we can finally get some decent capital equipment then we can improve productivity instead of being the one of the worst ranked countries in latin america in productivity terms. Also, tech stuff is only an example of commonly imported products. Even the poorer part of the population buys something imported.

jh816 comments on Wow Peso up a bit

The peso strength IS good for importers. Not only has the price of tech stuff come down quite a bit in the last year (check out LCD tvs), but many companies are also updating their equipment. El Colombiano had an article Thursday of last week, imports of heavy machinery and capital equipment are skyrocketing.

jh816 comments on Bancolombia Jumps on Colombia Credit Upgrade Speculation

Yeah, better that we should join in the Revolucion Boliviariana with Chavez and his pals. The average venazolano is really reaping the rewards of that one. Yeah, it sucks that there is a big disparity between the haves and the have-nots, but at least when there are successful companies (pronounced "companies allowed to be successful and not expropiated and destroyed by the state") there are more jobs for the regular folks. Colombia's exports to Venezuela doubled last year. Know why? It's because, more often than not, a socialist system doesn't produce quality products in sufficient mass for the people. Better there should be haves and have-nots, than everyone be have-nots

jh816 comments on Exchange houses and fluctuation of rates

If they were speculating, it would be speculating for a dollar drop. They are selling at less than the official rate which would mean they are trying to get rid of the dollars before the value drops further. Washing the money is the big function of the cash houses. Most don't even ask for your passport or cedula, no paper trail. The "big remittance" idea is the only thing I've been able to imagine also. Makes ya wonder what the spread was in the glory days of Escobar and company. Bet you could have made a good 20% off the exchange.

jh816 comments on Deaths of Union workers

Yeah, government must not be doing anything. If 22 is a 77% increase from last year, then only 13 were killed last year. Compare this to the years before Uribe's government came to power and tell me nothing is being done.

jh816 comments on Colombia: a frontier market that might surprise?

It would be nice to see Colombia continue its 6-year economic run. It has a lot going for it: a relatively free-market country, declining security problems, good natural resources, and a smart business-minded president. A lot of things worry me about Colombia though. 1) The people just do not have the work ethic that the developed countries have. I'm sure this will peeve someone off here, but it is the truth. It is a play first, work later culture (and the work done is often shoddy). Because of this, as well as capital controls and tariffs, the productivity rate is among the lowest in South America. Example: When Uribe first came to power, he tried to decrease some of the nation's 18 holidays (the most in the world), of course there was a huge uproar and it never happened. 2) The education system here, especially public, is for the most part horrible. I try to talk to my students about Colombian history or some other basic topics and they have no idea (and many of my students went to private schools). They seem to be a bit more competitive in their own career track, but outside of that they're lost. 3) As much as I think Uribe and his boys are doing a great job, they still spend money like socialists. Public spending is out of control. Peru has used the last few years to build up a huge surplus in reserves, and for this has regained their investment grade status. What has Colombia done? The government continues to spend money like its going out of style. What is really crazy is that they are spending theirselves into huge amounts of public debt while at the same time raising interest rates so high they are choking off private lending and growth. Newsflash boys, the private sector spends money a lot more efficiently than you do. Lower the interest rates and let the economic growth take care of the rest. 4) Feeding into the whole system is the outrageous tax and subsidy system. 16% sales tax?! 35% business/personal income tax?! On top of this, if you are foolish enough to try to get ahead, you are taxed an additional 20-30% on most other services to subsidize the lower three stratas. I understand we need enough tax income to help out, but this is ridiculous. I'm not even going to get into the prohibitive import tariffs and restrictions. Needless to say, Colombia has come a long way, and hopefully will continue to improve, but there are some serious cultural and structural changes that need to be made for any lasting growth.

jh816 comments on

This is what happens when emotions get involved in economics. It doesn't work. I'll concede the point that in a capitalist society there is a greater division of wealth. There are rich and there are poor. But this beats the hell out of the alternative. In a socialist society, everyone is poor. Give me a capitalist society and let me at least try to succeed.

jh816 comments on No Free trade with Colombia

The agreement will be passed this year. Bush has to, and has said he will, present it this week for it to be voted on this session. At first the Dems will do their posturing and the administration will give in and grant concessions for an aide packet for labor. Bush has talked up the agreement too much to let it die, and Pelosi has said she would let it pass if they had a TAA package. The agreement means little for the US. After passage US GDP will increase by 2.5 billion (from the analysis of the US Trade Commission. An amazing report, I recommend all read it), which is only about a .05 percent increase. The agreement is VERY important for Colombia. For all you budding socialists out there that don't want the TLC passed but love Colombia, please objectively research what it will mean for the nation. First, and most importantly, the agreement will mean a permanent trading partner with a huge chunk of world wealth. This means financial security and stability. Colombia WILL regain its investment grade status if we get this agreement. It just happened for Peru last week (a few months after passage of their own TLC with the US). With investment grade comes even more foreign direct investment and a richer country. From this you can extrapolate a whole boatload of consequences. With food on the table and money in the bank people are less likely to resort to crime or join a...hmm I don't know revolutionist group. Second, Colombia sorely needs to lower its protectionist policies and a TLC will do this immediately. Why do you think you pay almost double for any technology product here in Colombia? Why do you think the infrastructure is so chitty? Because technology and heavy machinery are both taxed to the point that they can not be imported without restrictive prices. Third, Actually this one relates to number 2 (lowering import tariffs, and hence prices). Because of the tariffs and price bands on grain and rice, Colombia imports almost nothing. This keeps the prices of staple products of the colombian diet artificially high. Without these restrictions, it is estimated that rice imports alone will increase 20-fold. WANT TO FIGHT INFLATION? Pass the TLC! Yes, some colombians will lose their jobs with the passage of the TLC. Sorry, it happens. But these people will find new jobs because of the investment and growth that the TLC will bring.

jh816 comments on

Capitalism does work in South America. Look at the difference between Colombia/Brazil versus Venezuela/Bolivia. Granted, no country in S.A. is as freely capitalistic as the U.S. or England and will never be for two reasons. 1) The latino culture is much more centered around the family, and by association the community. It is a given that everyone takes care of each other. That includes your poor uncle that won't get off his arse to work. For this, the capitalistic idea of survival of the fittest seems cold-hearted to them. 2) Rule of Law. This is the theory that economies run more smoothly and efficiently when there is greater rule of law (this includes not only personal security but also the strength of contract law and the courts). One problem for latin america is the security situation. Now this may be a cause or an effect of the economic reality (and you could spend your whole life trying to prove one way or the other), but it is probably a combination of the two. The other problem with South America in terms of "Rule of Law" is that the culture is MUCH more an informal society. People, and their contracts, are not taken in a literal sense. This very much hurts the validity of contracts and business.

jh816 comments on Another moto driver is road kill this morning in Medellin

And my students are always amazed when I tell them the motorcycle laws in the US (no weaving through traffic, no driving the center line, etc).

jh816 comments on With all the war talk (which way will the $$ Peso $$ go tomorrow ? )

I don't except the argument that high inflation is a "natural' part of a developing nation's economics. Prices follow supply and demand. Yes, in a booming economy inflation will be higher, but it does not have to be 6% and upwards. The problem with Colombia is two-fold. While the private sector has been booming, the government sector has continued to overspend, contributing to a huge increase in demand. Because of protective government tariffs and regulations, colombian companies have never really had to increase productivity. They have increased output, but can only increase it to a point because of poor productivity. Then again, it is so expensive for importers to pay the sky high duties that they don't have to compete much. Sure, supply has increased in the past few years, but not nearly enough to keep up with demand. Not enough supply for an increasing demand= higher prices. How about lowering the 81% import tariff Colombia has on rice or the 18% tariff on dairy?

jh816 comments on With all the war talk (which way will the $$ Peso $$ go tomorrow ? )

Besides the risk of war, check the inflation numbers. 1.5% for the month of Feb. alone? Between January and Feb. inflation has already eaten half of the target set by the central bank. The peso will not be nearly as strong over the next year as many on the board believe. Strongest it will go is 1800. Things could get tough if the government can't figure out how to stem inflation.

jh816 comments on MATARON A RAUL REYES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

With all the excitement, there's not much word on the capture of the guy that replaced Martin Caballero, but this was a really big capture as well. With all the hostage releases and captures/deaths of FARC lately this could be a turning point for Colombia. Amazing. Tropas del Comando conjunto del Caribe capturaron en las últimas horas a Manuel Ortiz o Lucio Gómez Briñez, alias "Mañe", quien reemplazó a Martín Caballero en la comandancia del frente 35 de las Farc. Colprensa/LA PATRIA Sincelejo Tropas del Comando conjunto del Caribe capturaron en las últimas horas a Manuel Ortiz o Lucio Gómez Briñez, alias "Mañe", quien reemplazó a Martín Caballero en la comandancia del frente 35 de las Farc. También se identificaba como Uriel Oviedo Aldana. Su captura se dio cuando se desplazaba de parrillero en una moto, en zona rural del municipio de Córdoba, Bolívar. Alias "Mañe" delinquía en la región de los Montes de María y asumió tras la muerte de Caballero, según fuentes militares. El 25 de octubre del año anterior fue abatido en combates Gustavo Rueda Díaz, alias "Martín Caballero", comandante del frente 37 de las Farc, en el departamento de Bolívar, exactamente en la región conocida como los Montes de María. Para las autoridades, los dos fueron responsables del secuestro del hoy canciller Fernando Araujo. En las próximas horas las Fuerzas Militares adelantarán una rueda de prensa donde el guerrillero será mostrado ante los medios de comunicación.

jh816 comments on Comment on the Relationship between Wall Street and the Colombian Peso

Be careful, there is almost certainly a correlation between equity prices in New York and the peso, but there is no causation arguement. The peso/dollar rate fluctuates because of the relative differences in the economies, economic growth, inflation, and interest rates of the two countries not because the market is 'up' or 'down' a particular day. The correlation is because the market for both assets (exchange rates and stocks) are tied to the afforementioned factors (the market takes its cues mostly from the general economy). The reason you may notice that when New York is 'down' the dollar is up relative to the peso is because "usually" when there is economic fear on Wall Street, there is greater economic fear in the rest of the world (shown by the world equity markets falling a greater percentage than in New York). When this happens, people move their investments to "safer" areas (i.e. United States assets and currency) hence increasing demand (strengthening) for the dollar and weakening demand for the peso. This has not necessarily been the case recently because even as Wall Street (the U.S. economy) falls, Colombia is expected to grow.

jh816 comments on Central bank going to have to eat those put options it sold!

Posted a website that explains their policies on a previous post. It appears that if the 20-day moving average falls to the point that the options are exercised, the central bank just sells rolls over the options (sells a new batch with the new moving average) to pay for the call on the other ones. The trouble is, with selling options, if the price on the asset moves by a great deal (like the moving average has done since they sold the options) the exercised options will cost a chitload. It would make sense that when they saw the wholesale inflation number in the US and some of the economic reports a few days ago, that they would have gotten out of the positions or entered into an offsetting one, but who knows with bureacrats. I can just see the central bank sitting on their butts because something hasn't been formalized in policy or a million documents haven't been signed and passed to everyone and their brother to authorize the transaction. So goes government in Colombia.

jh816 comments on Colombian Peso highest level since 1999

If the Col government could stop breast-feeding some of the weak companies in Colombia and allow the import tariffs to come down, inflation would plummet with the cost of some staple products like dairy and rice(staple products). Dairy products face an 18% tariff and rice is charged an 80% tariff. Lowering the tariffs on these or allowing more imports would bring the price of the canasta (and inflation) down. The central bank doesn't need to raise rates and quell growth, they need to allow Colombians to buy products at global market prices.

jh816 comments on Central bank going to have to eat those put options it sold!

They sold put options on the dollar. This gives the buyer the right to sell dollars. It looks like the strike price they are using is the 20-day moving average. The day they sold the options, the peso weakened to 1915 from 1905 the day before. I haven't calculated what the 20-day would be, but a guess would be a little over 1900.

jh816 comments on Colombia rebels get foothold in Venezuela

Yes Chavez denies that the FARC is in Venezuela, but I think this has been more under the context of denying that they are giving aid or shelter. But, either way, its irrelevant whether he's denied it in the past or not. The point is, this now gives Chavez an international precedent (US and EU support of Turkish incursions into Iraq) to move troops into Colombia to protect Venezuela from the FARC. On December 14, Colombian officers arrested Rodrigo Granda, the chief of international relations for the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia - FARC. The Venezuelan government said Granda was arrested inside Venezuela's borders, so the arrest was illegal and Granda was actually kidnapped.

jh816 comments on Colombia rebels get foothold in Venezuela

This should be a HUGE alarm going off for Colombia! This is the only "reason" Chavez needs to invade Colombia. Clearly Chavez and the FARC are on the same side, but this move (and its publication in the press) has probably been jointly orchestrated to present a "danger" to the Venezuelan people. Chavez can now move his troops into colombian territory on the auspices of "controlling" the rebel problem in his country, and all he has to do to keep the US from saying anything is say, "but look, you are allowing Turkey to do the same thing in N. Iraq."

jh816 comments on Colombia's ex-president slams government for hostage comments

Whether Uribe cares for the hostages or not, can he (or the government) show too much sentiment or give up too much in bargaining in front of the FARC. If he publicly cries over the hostages or gives too much, how many senators do you think will be kidnapped next week?

jh816 comments on Colombia's ex-president slams government for hostage comments

How many months did Uribe suspend military operations when the Farc said they were going to release the THREE hostages? Yeah, he probably did start operations back up on the last day. He set a deadline, by that time the FARC had provided nothing, so he started the alternative coarse of action. This is a terrorist, drug-dealing organization! The government has been more than cooperative, but have received nothing but lies and red herrings. How many weeks has it been since they said they would release Gechem? So just release him. Drop him off in a small town and let them contact the government. Or do they want to arrange a dropoff with their partner in crime Chavez, to receive another mysterious package???

jh816 comments on

The latino culture is much more affectionate than the american culture. Don't confuse flirting with simple familiarity.

jh816 comments on Colombia's ex-president slams government for hostage comments

Whether it was foolish to release the intel or not, what right does Samper have to criticize the government on relations with the FARC or against the narcos? Some job he did when he had Bogota.

jh816 comments on Gobierno Colombiano tiene que dejar de creer que EEUU es su único referente en politica internacional

Normalmente, los paises que tienen mas en comun (en el area de politica filosofia y economia) quedan juntos. Por eso, Colombia tiene un vinculo mas fuerte con EEUU que con los otros paises de America del Sur. Uribe ha tratado, recientamente, a vincular con el EU tambien. Los otros paises de America Latina son, por la mayoria, mucho mas a la izquierda en pensamiento que Colombia. Se vean Colombia como un triador de los latinos porque quiere vincular mas con los paices de capitalismo que con ellos. Es una enfermidad que llamo "ciego politico", o cuando estas tan a la izquierda (o a la derecha) que no puedes intender o ver las razones del otro lado. Estoy de acuerdo que Colombia necesita vinculos con los demas, pero no debe sacrificar su filosofia economica para ser un parte del grupo. Colombia ha tratado a caer bien con los otros paises pero con unos (Chavez en particular) hay pocito que puede hacer. Uribe acepto Chavez con agradacimiento la primera vez para el cambio con el Farc, pero cuando Chavez mostro el favoritismo y rompio las reglas de ser intermedio, solo habia una cosa a hacer, despiderle. (bueno, se acabo con el carnicero del idioma)

jh816 comments on Obama vs. McCain

I think the NY times article is a non-issue. 1) It was run with no verifiable evidence which makes it easily discredited and ignored, 2) being attacked by the NYT is considered by many conservatives as a badge of honor (and this may even help McCain by drawing the ultra-conservatives out to defend hime), and 3) does that part of his life really reflect his ability to serve well as president? I'm a conservative, but can admit that Clinton was a great president (and we know what he did).

jh816 comments on Obama vs. McCain

Though, it would be nice to have someone in the WH that has committed to meet with foriegn officials unfriendly to the US to reach an accord. With Obama's personality and speechmaking, we might actually be the country that the world respects and envies once again

jh816 comments on Obama vs. McCain

wow, quite a bit more distrust for McCain than I had anticipated. His age does worry me a bit, as well as his stance on Iraq. Part of my support, though, comes from the fact that I prefer the president to be of the opposing party as those that control congress. Politicians, as a whole, will line their pockets and pass as many 'pet' projects for their districts if not checked by someone on the other side. Democrats in the WH and congress seems like a prescription for too many government programs. Though a repeal of some of the tax cuts and withdrawal from Iraq would probably pay for a great deal of it.

jh816 comments on Colombia Central Bank Sells $180 Million of Dollar Put Options

ahhhh, good ol' american skeptiscm. That's what I miss. Anyway, getting a little off topic, thought I might start a new thread for McCain vs. Obama

jh816 comments on Colombia Central Bank Sells $180 Million of Dollar Put Options

Roci, gotta ask. Where's the quote from "World economic indicators..."? I'd agree that Obama will probably get the nomination, but I think he has a long way to go to beat McCain. More though is the "1400 by November." That's a 26% move from the rate as it is now, let alone from the 2000 it has been hanging around. I can see maybe 1800 or as low as 1750, but just don't see economic factors (or the government allowing such a steep decline) pushing it down that low.

jh816 comments on Colombia Central Bank Sells $180 Million of Dollar Put Options

options can be good instruments for hedging a position (helping to mitigate risk on an investment) but naked option investments are a quick way to lose a lot of money because of the leverage involved. Roci has the dynamics correct. When they SELL puts, the central bank is betting that the dollar stabilizes relative to the peso. Basically, they use these option auctions when the exchange rate has moved more than 4% in a 20 day period. I didn't calculate the statistics, but I'm guessing 4% is at least close to two standard deviations, so further moves would be statistically improbable. When the bank sells puts, they are selling investors the right to sell dollars if the price drops further. This is more of a hedge position because the bank buys and sells the currencies anyway to help stabilize the rate.

jh816 comments on Colombia Central Bank Sells $180 Million of Dollar Put Options

A more thorough explanation and analysis of what they are doing and how it worked between 1999 (inception) to 2003. http://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap23i.pdf It seems to work fairly well as a means of stabilizing reserves when the 20-day moving average fluctuates. I'm still a little uneasy that the govt. would take such a risky stance, but it is a short-term move and they have inplace a few safeguards.

jh816 comments on Colombia Central Bank Sells $180 Million of Dollar Put Options

Check out the site below for rules adopted by the central bank for these options. http://www.banrep.gov.co/econome/reglam/i_centralbankint.pdf I've never heard of central banks doing this to control their currency. I've got quite a bit of experience in the options markets, but would have to look into this a little more to pass judgement. It looks like the options have a one-month time horizon. The thing with selling option contracts though is they entail an unlimited amount of downside risk and a limited amount of upside potential. Basically, the most the bank could gain is the $180 million paid as premiums, but could lose a great deal if something were to happen to change the exchange rate suddenly.

jh816 comments on English School for Sale

Guess your time isn't so "precious" as to "waste" it on posting your two cents though

jh816 comments on English School for Sale

mranderson, sent you an email. I've got the teacher's edition to the first interchange book but not the cd's. I don't usually use them in class, but just have them for the students to study outside of class for another perspective. There are a few places close to the school that you could make copies.

jh816 comments on English School for Sale

Sorry, this isn't Ebay. No bidding until you've actually seen the place.

jh816 comments on Colombia OKs Tax Breaks, Cheap Loans For Cos Hurt By Currency

While I'm not sure the peso will strengthen to 1500 anytime soon, with the difference in interest rates and relative growth, the trend will definately be to the stronger side. This government aid will be a bandaid for a broken leg. The worst part about the package is its effect on the government's debt. They already spend way too much and this is keeping Colombia from getting its treasury debt back to investment grade by the rating agencies (this would be a huge step for the country). There is still plenty of profit left in the export industries, but Colombia has one of the worst productivity rates in Latin America (which is also to say one of the worst in the world). The people may work long hours, but they don't get nearly as much done. If the government really wants to help business, they need to put that money into figuring out how to increase productivity (through better mfg. or quality control processes, labor study, or pushing the companies to upgrade equipment).

jh816 comments on English School for Sale

I use the Stand Out series of books, but I've got copies of the Interchange and Everyday English series for the students to study outside of class. These I would have to keep to sell with the school. However, I do have 157 lessons (grammar, people and places, everyday dialogues, etc) in PDF format and 38 audio lessons that I could sell.

jh816 comments on Renting longer than a month in Colombia

Even offering rent upfront won't usually get you a place. Before I bought my place, I was offering 6 months upfront and noone would accept. It gets a little easier if you can talk with owners, but still pretty tough. Pedro and I lived in a place over here in Laureles for a while. I forgot the number to the landlord, he probably still has it. They let us sign a lease with just passports and put down a month security.

jh816 comments on Colombia could be 'very good gold frontier' in near future

ahhhh, gotta love the debates between the free market capatalists and reformists. Though I do agree that a level of social control is good, I've got to agree with slyguy here. Sure sometimes the system sucks and people get abused, but what's the next best alternative? Socialism didn't work too well for the Soviets, hasn't done much for Cuba, and we're starting to see that maybe Chavez's revolution isn't so great either. Colombia's problem is that there are so many people unemployed or underemployed that this keeps supply and demand from increasing wages. There are just too many people out there willing to do the job for less. Hopefully, with good economic growth and foriegn investment, the country can lower the unemployment rate and wages will naturally come up. Capitalism "is the worst system of government, except for all the others" (before anyone makes a fuss about misquoting Churchill, I think 'capitalism' goes rather well in the space)

jh816 comments on Colombia could be 'very good gold frontier' in near future

Things are going to get real interesting in about 4-5 years. The production from the newly discovered deposit will start coming out (it's supposed to be one of the top ten largest in the world) and the production from these projects will be close to sale. Since gold is priced in dollars, I'm not quite sure how the mechanics will work. Any ideas? The companies that mine the gold sell it for dollars or pesos directly? At any rate, Colombia's gold exports will skyrocket. I imagine much of the gold will be paid for in dollars and this will play huge games with the exchange rate.

jh816 comments on POLITICS IS POLITICS AND BUSINESS ARE BUSINESS: COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA TIED BY OIL

hah! I love it. "PdVSA will start to export gas to Colombia in 2011". At the rate their going, their won't be a PdVSA or a Chavez by 2011.

jh816 comments on

"Well, none (prostitutes)" Don't kid yourself. Just because the girl doesn't explicitly ask for money for sex, doesn't mean she's not a prostitute. This happens with men and women, and in every country, but I've seen it a lot here. All the rich gringos come down and think they're hot chit because they have great looking women to date and take home. But they've never actually handed money to the girl before sex, so she's not a pro. What do you think all those meals and drinks in Lleras are buying you? Do you really think she's going out with you for your charming personality and good conversation? Better yet, has she ever asked for you to help her pay a (student loan, shoes, family member's debt)? We all pimp ourselves out to a point. Some are just a little more direct.

jh816 comments on 1.00 USD = 1,899.00 COP

Assumptions: Colombian interest rate 10% US interest rate 3.25% Colombian rate of inflation 4% US rate of inflation 2.5% With these assumptions, the currency rate comes out to about 1818/$ in a year's time. The Col. central bank is expected to raise rates to 10%, but I believe this will be about it. The slowdown in the US will help to cool off the economy and they won't have to worry too much about inflation. Inflation will come down to 4%, but will not come down as much as they would hope because of government spending. The Col. central bank is also getting a lot of pressure for the interest rate's effect on exchange, and this will help to cap their actions. The Fed will lower interest rates one more time to convince everyone they are serious about recession worries, but they really can't ignore the inflation picture either. I believe inflation will come up to 2.5% (above the Fed's target) but they won't be able to raise rates because of the economy. Now, there is a lot of "noise" that can (and will) happen to effect rates. I think the Fed is focusing too much on the economy and not enough on inflation, which could mean that inflation surges to much higher levels (3-4%). Something could happen anyday with Venezuela, which would have huge consequences on the Colombian economy. The Colombian government just released further plans to aid industries effected by the revaluation, this along with every other social program, will keep Colombian inflation high. 12 month prediction range 1727-1908/$

jh816 comments on English School for Sale

Gringoloid, not sure I can help you. It seems that you are not really interested in teaching or the students, but only about solving the visa issues. I've also got to think about the students as well. I can't just sell the place to someone and screw the students. I've got a couple of offers from teacher friends to rent the place and cash out some of the assets, but am looking for a better deal. If you're genuinely interested in teaching, and have some experience. Contact me. I have all the financial documents and have paid all IVA up to date to show DAS.