Yea Baby! Dollar up to 1840!

Saltador says on Aug 11, 2008, 13:40:

Bump.

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paulr says on Aug 11, 2008, 13:49:

ssssshhhhh, seems like every time someone mentions a rise, it then drops.

"paulr threatens me with death !" pobrecito

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RJQuilla says on Aug 11, 2008, 16:06:

I am loving it cause I head south next month...............hoping for 2k by then but doubt it will get that good. The more the peso to the dollar the better. I wanna be a big baller!!!

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briarblue says on Aug 11, 2008, 17:40:

I'm with you RJQuilla.....would love to see 2 mil by mid-sept, but I'm not gonna hold my breath.

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droble77 says on Aug 11, 2008, 17:52:

I doubt it'll hit 2,000 but every little bit helps. I'm in the same boat as you guys, as I got a trip to CTG mid-September.

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briarblue says on Aug 11, 2008, 18:10:

it means that same dime bag will last longer or for the same weight you'll have money left over to buy a dictionary to snag a new girlfriend.

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tejasmarcos says on Aug 11, 2008, 18:38:

seems the dollar/peso is tracking the dollar/euro. i'm no expert. what say the currency players?

trying to walk a straight line on sour mash and cheap wine...

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wendell13 says on Aug 11, 2008, 20:55:

the commodity bull run is over......these gold bugs that are holding bullion are always wrong.

If the end of the era of paper money is over, I would want to be holding guns and ammo and not gold.

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deathnova says on Aug 11, 2008, 21:13:

The dollar is regaining some of it's strength, it follows the price of oil inversely of course.

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poco says on Aug 11, 2008, 21:45:

Quote: ...............hoping for 2k by then but doubt it will get that good.
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If it hits 2,800.. well that might mean the prices are only 25% more,, on the average for hard goods.

services,, well,, depends on what service means to any one individual.
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Quote: it follows the price of oil inversely of course.
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Humm,, well,, that makes some kind of sense,, hey,, maybe gold and silver follow oil,, or maybe oil follows gold and silver,, or maybe they all have some kind of incestuous relationship ?

Or,, maybe,, just maybe,, the gods of ill fortune frowned on the oil traders and gold bugs,, maybe it’s time to remember that old foo-bird saying, When the foo shits,, wear it.

Colombian Chickens are crowing about the new President of the U.S. who will assure that From each according to their ability to each according to their need.

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asdfn says on Aug 12, 2008, 06:01:

yea, the col peso tracks commodities, which have come off considerably. the central bank started buying $20 million a day to fight appreciation as well. plus, the dollar is just getting a bid across the board lately.

my trip is in sept too, ill be rooting on the greenback in the short term.

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asdfn says on Aug 12, 2008, 06:02:

yea, the col peso tracks commodities, which have come off considerably. the central bank started buying $20 million a day to fight appreciation as well. plus, the dollar is just getting a bid across the board lately.

my trip is in sept too, ill be rooting on the greenback in the short term.

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asdfn says on Aug 12, 2008, 06:06:

yea, the col peso tracks commodities, which have come off considerably. the central bank started buying $20 million a day to fight appreciation as well. plus, the dollar is just getting a bid across the board lately.

my trip is in sept too, ill be rooting on the greenback in the short term.

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asdfn says on Aug 12, 2008, 06:06:

yea, the col peso tracks commodities, which have come off considerably. the central bank started buying $20 million a day to fight appreciation as well. plus, the dollar is just getting a bid across the board lately.

my trip is in sept too, ill be rooting on the greenback in the short term.

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Simon says on Aug 12, 2008, 20:09:

GO PESO GOOOO!!!!

"Just an honest, decent Colombian trying to do the right thing."--Simon

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 13, 2008, 03:16:

Lets see what happens in th coming weeks, its thin trading at the moment, traders are most likely playing at the moment.

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Saltador says on Aug 13, 2008, 08:24:

I just saw 1855. Hell of a dead cat bounce, I'm loving it...

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ColombianoGringo (Moderator) (Trustee board) (☼Travelguide writer) says on Aug 13, 2008, 09:57:

Ctg Bound says on Aug 13, 2008, 10:18:

Saltador,

A few pecentage points is hardly a "hell of a dead cat bounce".

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Saltador says on Aug 13, 2008, 10:24:

CTGB,
Hey, I'm just cheerleading like all the guys who want the dollar to fall against the peso.
And I was being sarcastic about the dead cat bounce. The dollar haters like to break out that expression when the dollar rises. I was just beating them to the punch.
Any move up is a good move as far as I'm concerned.

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 13, 2008, 10:35:

Saltador,

Actually I said that it was a dead cat bounce, BUT I am no dollar hater, Euro or Peso lover, just what I feel it is.

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briarblue says on Aug 13, 2008, 17:48:

Do you know quite a few gay hillbillies? Are you speaking from personal experience?

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asdfn says on Aug 14, 2008, 02:20:

how are you guys trading the peso? I'm at work looking at the institutional spot platforms for six major banks and none of them offer usdcop. is there a futures contract?

I can't imagine its very liquid if $20 million a day will push it up like this, that's nothing in the grand scheme of things.

I wouldn't call the dollar a dead cat bounce, interest rate differentials are about to reverse course, which was the last leg the recent euro run had to stand on. their fundamentals aren't so rosy and ours just can't get worse, barring armegeddon.

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 14, 2008, 03:20:

asdfn,

I don't trade it, I don't trade any currencies.

I take a longer view on what I think us going to happen regarding currencies or stockmarkets, Countries etc., I closed my stock trading portfolio by 2005, which I had started closing in 2003.

I went heavy into Asia stock markets late 1997 and carried on until 2001, although I have since sold certain markets over the last few years, like Korea making up to 1000%.

I swapped my Euros for dollars end of 2001 and early 2002, still holding mostly Euros, but as I have stated a few months ao I will be swapping them for dollars when I think its right, I swapped 33% of the Euros when the dollar was 1.59 to the Euro.

For Pesos I mostly invested in Colombia when the peso was 2,500 to 3,000 pesos to the dollar, but that was because I live here and wanted something to do, otherwise I wouldn't have bothered.

I don't see the Euro/US interest rate changing, I also still see more problems ahead for the US than Europe in the short term.

BUT I believe the Euro is overvalued against the dollar on fundamentals, but I see dollar weakness until more of the mess in the US is cleaned up.

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 14, 2008, 04:01:

gringoloid,

I don't see everything go back to what it was.

The high oil price & commodty prices are starting to feed through to lower growth, mostly in the developed markets, although it will also affect the developing markets, but to a lesser degree.

Many Countries and the people in them are addjusting to the high oil price, which will put strong downward presure on the oil price, as the old saying goes “nothing cures high prices like high prices."

Although prices of oils and other commodities may bounce back up, I think overall the commodity bull run is over, although I don't see overall that commodity prices dropping away dramitically either.

The main driver in the increase in the commodity market has been China, I see China exporting less due to les demand and the yuan appreciating.

I don't see any real problems for China on the growth side overall though as they have been trying to reign in internal demand for several years and can reverse that now, in fact they have already started, so Chinese growth could go down to 8% a year, although that would depend on how much their government wants to stimulate their economy.

But taking into account the developed Countries and other using less commodities due to the high price and growth slowdown, plus extra commodity coming online, this I expect will cancel out the continued growth of China for this turn of the cycle.

We shall see.

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 14, 2008, 04:11:

tomtom33,

It had gone up by so much, there was only one way it could go, but I don't see the index as representing anything in the real world, unlike some other countries stock markets.

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webmanco says on Aug 14, 2008, 04:35:

Still a long run for the dolar to be USD 1 = $4000 pesos :-) , if ever

No hay extremo cierto o verdadero, porque los extremos opacan, enruedan, (lavan cerebros) verdades. Yotas

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 14, 2008, 04:41:

webmanco,

"If ever" is a long time, I don't see it for now, but in the long run who can know, to many variables.

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pedro (☼Travelguide writer) says on Aug 14, 2008, 16:13:

RJQuilla says on Aug 14, 2008, 18:50:

2500???? What is the all time high?? Never been that good when I have been there.

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billyb says on Aug 14, 2008, 20:16:

“nothing cures high prices like high prices."

jaja, I like that, so true. Gringo, it might not be optimism as much as the fact that all the bad news is already built into the market and will now tend to react more to good news or even treat bad news that wasn't catastrophic as good news (then again that might qualify as optimism). It works inversely when the market is at the tippytop.

"All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I never go there" Unkown (at least to me) wise man.

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billyb says on Aug 14, 2008, 20:51:

"so we have billy, wendell, ctg bound, who say the commodity boom is over. anyone else?'

Where did I say that? BTW, Saudi can get oil to the pump for about $2 per barrell.

".Saudi Oil Minister Al-Naimi estimated that it costs Saudi Arabia about $2 to produce a barrel of oil....................."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/16/AR2007...

"All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I never go there" Unkown (at least to me) wise man.

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billyb says on Aug 14, 2008, 21:18:

One sign of speculation in the oil market is the fact that in june and July only 2% of oil future contracts were delivered on. That means that 98% of the action was pure speculation as opposed to hedging. Then again, i never make predictions, not smart enough for that.

"Because, oil executives have said recently that $100 is the minimum oil price required to bring new oil supplies to the pump."

gringoloid, I would have bet you would have been the last person to believe what oil executives say .LOL.

"All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I never go there" Unkown (at least to me) wise man.

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billyb says on Aug 14, 2008, 21:22:

I don't know. I guess what drives all markets, greed and panic??? BTW, I have no problem with speculators. If the market is there and they risk their money, more power to you.

"All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I never go there" Unkown (at least to me) wise man.

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billyb says on Aug 14, 2008, 21:35:

GL, you may be misunderstanding me, I'm not arguing with your logic of how the oil market got to where it is, it seems to have been spot on (although you could add the security premuim to the price also), but just pointing out the fact that the STOCK market seems temporeraly oversold, as it is shrugging off bad news and embracing any good news, even if it comes in the form of bad news that wasn't as bad as was expected. And as i noted above, I am not smart enough to be able to predict how long that oversold mentality will continue, I leave that the to Wall Streeet Mavens of PBH.

"All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I never go there" Unkown (at least to me) wise man.

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billyb says on Aug 14, 2008, 21:57:

"At the very least, they could have went out on the foriegn currency markets and bought euro dollars, to bolster the dollar'

But wouldn't have been artificially bolstering the dollar as opposed to letting it find its natural level? And from what I can tell, it generally can't be sustained and usually doesn't wind up working, as it gives the market a signal of weakness, giving speculators the incentive to just ride it out.

"All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I never go there" Unkown (at least to me) wise man.

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billyb says on Aug 14, 2008, 22:47:

The problem (or solution) is that it being a globalized economy there are no longer any absolutes. Before you could count on certain things being good and certain ones bad, but now there are so many permutuations, where something might be good for us in one sense and harm us in another. Like your example with high oil prices and how it affects outsourcing. Like they say, it's a brave new world.

"All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I never go there" Unkown (at least to me) wise man.

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billyb says on Aug 14, 2008, 23:18:

I got one for you. One of our customers was having a hacking attack a couple of days ago and when we noticed it, we tried to contact their IT manager (and our only contact) for several hours and no luck. finally we shut them down from all outgoing traffic to save the from themselvesand all of a sudden she calls to complain about the service shutdown and when we explain that we couldn't contact her, she mentioned that it's because she is in Nepal. well that little bit of outsourcing cost them an extra $10k this month, and they are based just down the road from us.

"All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I never go there" Unkown (at least to me) wise man.

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 15, 2008, 03:12:

gringoloid,

I believe that the main rises in commodity are over in this cycle, not sure what "so for once, are you willing to back that up with..."

Its quite a straight forward statement.

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 15, 2008, 03:34:

gringoloid,

"chinese factories restart for business after the olympics"

Only a small amount of business is closed in China around Beijing, it was also stated for months that China was sucking in extra oil and coal before the games started to make sure there were no shortgages and blackouts.

I wonder how much affect that had on the oil price and its rise over much of this year?

I read a number of artciles that said they thought oil would carry on going up until around when the games started and the pull back.

I hope you were on the right side of the pull back.

I don't blame speculators for the oil rise, they can only add to volatilty nothing else in a large market like the oil one.

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 15, 2008, 03:43:

gringoloid,

You predict a worldwide depression, not sure how this tallies with oil price rising to $200 and a overall commodity bull run.

Let me know your thoughts?

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billyb says on Aug 15, 2008, 06:47:

Go figure, oil down Dow up this morning, what gives?

"All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I never go there" Unkown (at least to me) wise man.

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billyb says on Aug 15, 2008, 07:01:

Yeah, but if it wasn't for Fox news we wouldn't have heard about the Montawk Monster.

"All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I never go there" Unkown (at least to me) wise man.

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 15, 2008, 07:49:

gringoloid,

As to Buffet fine, but he gets things wrong as well, to me making 25% a year for 30 years is OK, but nothing special, there are many others that make better, but like to keep quite about it, although it gets harder for any fund to keep making large percentage as they get bigger, as it is easier to make bigger percentage with smaller funds.

I am a smaller fund for example, over 14 years my average is 45% and I only use my own resources, five of those years I mostly took a break and followed things to a lot lesser degree.

There was no way oil was going to stay at $10 a barrel, only a fool would think that was a realistic price, copying the same percentage growth as the 70s is not really good science to me, but thats up to you.

Although some of the events you say could happen, I don't really see any of them as having any seriouse long term impact on the oil price and world economy, short term blip yes, long term no, a spike up then back down again.

Iran doesn't have the capabilities to disrupt the flow of oil out of Straights of Hormuz or the gulf, other than cause a few minor problems at the beginning of the war, before their assets are mostly destroyed, looking at the 80s, plus looking at what equipment they have compared with the US and other Countries, price would jump higher then go back down.

One big downer could be a sustained terorist attack on Saudi oil facilties, but the world would addjust and I don't see that pushing the world into depression.

But I am afraid I still don't see a squaring of the circle of a world wide depression and a high oil price.

I don't think you are negative thinking though, from 1986, I would tell people when the conversation came up, don't worry about the Russians, its those dam Arab Muslims who are going to start the next world war, some called me rasist etc. I suspect they now think differant.

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Tinto (Moderator) (Trustee board) says on Aug 15, 2008, 08:32:

Yippee! Now Pasty White Gringos can afford better bling for their women in Colombia. Platinum has gone from $2200 USD per ounce to $1380 and gold has gone from $1050 to $780.

I wanted access to health care, housing and education, but, no, I get potholes, trash and silicone tits instead. -Desi.

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Saltador says on Aug 15, 2008, 11:28:

CTG Bound,
Damn, too bad I didn't throw 10,000 dollars your way 14 years ago. That 10,000 dollars would now be worth 1.8 million, at 45% for 14 years. I hope you started out with at least ten grand. And that you didn't go to the same accounting class that the "Beardstown Ladies" did...

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 15, 2008, 12:07:

Saltador,

A litlle bit more than that, but not a lot more, three of those years were at 90-96% growth, the growth over 5 of the last 6 years has been less than 45%, because of the reason given, otherwise it would have possibly been higher, or lower if I didn't play well.

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billyb says on Aug 15, 2008, 14:18:

"Beardstown Ladies"

Saltador, why is that ringing a bell? Are those those old ladies in an investnment club and it didn't end well, or something like that?

"All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I never go there" Unkown (at least to me) wise man.

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Saltador says on Aug 15, 2008, 14:34:

They were these little old ladies that formed an investment club, and then wrote a best selling book claiming they had averaged 24% a year for about 15 years. This was astounding, because even the best money managers in the world would be hard pressed to average those kind of returns over a time period like that.
Well, someone audited them and when their books were scrutinized, they ended up averaging like 15% over a time period that the SP averaged 17%.

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billyb says on Aug 15, 2008, 14:50:

thanks.

"All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I never go there" Unkown (at least to me) wise man.

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briarblue says on Aug 15, 2008, 16:24:

Dead cat bounce? How about a reversal? If so, don't fight the trend, the trend is your friend.

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podborski says on Aug 16, 2008, 11:14:

hey loid, and who will win the bet on the value of the COP if it keeps going...to around 2150 or so??? : )

As for the commodity bubble or no....I want to go on record as being solidly on the fence, but if I had to make a guess, my gut says it's a bubble, and I think it's bursting right now.

As the US slows the whole world is going to slow...but just for a year or two and then I'd jump back on the oil and commodities bandwagon.

China and India are not going away, although they aren't as solid as people seem to think either.

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Tinto (Moderator) (Trustee board) says on Aug 16, 2008, 12:18:

Is it any wonder? Rubito's guess has a 270 peso range, wider than any of the others.

Please refresh my memory: start and end dates of the contest?

I wanted access to health care, housing and education, but, no, I get potholes, trash and silicone tits instead. -Desi.

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pedro (☼Travelguide writer) says on Aug 16, 2008, 18:17:

manINred says on Aug 18, 2008, 06:55:

Last time I went to Colombia the dollar was at that price, 1800/1900, and I was annoyed because at that point it was expensive to buy pesos, I was used to it being well above 2000.

Oh well, up up and away for the dollar hopefully :) Actualy, I'm not too fussed, it's not like i'm there now.

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