Yea Baby! Dollar up to 1840!

Saltador says on Aug 11, 2008, 13:40:

Bump.

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paulr says on Aug 11, 2008, 13:49:

ssssshhhhh, seems like every time someone mentions a rise, it then drops.

"paulr threatens me with death !" pobrecito

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GregYohn says on Aug 11, 2008, 13:56:

Hola!

It was less than $1.50 for 1 Euro today from $1.60 a week ago!

12VOIP.com gives free calls to Colombia.Greg

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RJQuilla says on Aug 11, 2008, 16:06:

I am loving it cause I head south next month...............hoping for 2k by then but doubt it will get that good. The more the peso to the dollar the better. I wanna be a big baller!!!

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briarblue says on Aug 11, 2008, 17:40:

I'm with you RJQuilla.....would love to see 2 mil by mid-sept, but I'm not gonna hold my breath.

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droble77 says on Aug 11, 2008, 17:52:

I doubt it'll hit 2,000 but every little bit helps. I'm in the same boat as you guys, as I got a trip to CTG mid-September.

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A_Fern says on Aug 11, 2008, 17:54:

Rising Dollar?

Lets assume I have lived in a cave, smoked pot all my life and have only a few functioning brain cells left, dated Paris Hilton and Britney Spears and they both dumped me because I couldn't keep up with all their big words..............

A rising dollar value equals what to me?
How about a quick "Rising Dollar Values for Dummies" cliff note please.........

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briarblue says on Aug 11, 2008, 18:10:

it means that same dime bag will last longer or for the same weight you'll have money left over to buy a dictionary to snag a new girlfriend.

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tejasmarcos says on Aug 11, 2008, 18:38:

seems the dollar/peso is tracking the dollar/euro. i'm no expert. what say the currency players?

trying to walk a straight line on sour mash and cheap wine...

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GregYohn says on Aug 11, 2008, 18:57:

Hola!

When your beer costs 1,100 pesos and the exchange rate is 1,800 Pesos to the Dollar. It costs $0.61 for it.

Let's say the Dollar rises and goes up. Now, at 2,000 Pesos to the Dollar. It costs $0.55 for it.

Take out 500,000 pesos from the ATM and at the 1st rate it costs $277.78, but just $250 was taken out of your bank acct using the 2nd rate .

12VOIP.com gives free calls to Colombia.Greg

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gringoloid says on Aug 11, 2008, 19:15:

no big deal.............central banks around the world have been buying up dollars and then acquire u.s. debt instruments so they can earn interest. records are kept and reported in the weekly federal reserve report........this type of activity is up 38% on an annual basis.

when the central banks stop buying dollars you'll see everything go back to the way it was.

this phenomena has happened in colombia recently when the BdR bought dollars.

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rocinante says on Aug 11, 2008, 20:33:

No pues!

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Not that the US president actually runs the US." Feb 5, 2008

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wendell13 says on Aug 11, 2008, 20:55:

the commodity bull run is over......these gold bugs that are holding bullion are always wrong.

If the end of the era of paper money is over, I would want to be holding guns and ammo and not gold.

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deathnova says on Aug 11, 2008, 21:13:

The dollar is regaining some of it's strength, it follows the price of oil inversely of course.

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poco says on Aug 11, 2008, 21:45:

Quote: ...............hoping for 2k by then but doubt it will get that good.
===========
If it hits 2,800.. well that might mean the prices are only 25% more,, on the average for hard goods.

services,, well,, depends on what service means to any one individual.
==========
Quote: it follows the price of oil inversely of course.
=======
Humm,, well,, that makes some kind of sense,, hey,, maybe gold and silver follow oil,, or maybe oil follows gold and silver,, or maybe they all have some kind of incestuous relationship ?

Or,, maybe,, just maybe,, the gods of ill fortune frowned on the oil traders and gold bugs,, maybe it’s time to remember that old foo-bird saying, When the foo shits,, wear it.

"When you men get home and face an anti-war protester, look him in the eyes and shake his hand. Then, wink at his girlfriend, because she knows she's dating a pussy." Quote - General Tommy Franks

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rocinante says on Aug 12, 2008, 05:43:

Dude I gave you a funny.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Not that the US president actually runs the US." Feb 5, 2008

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rocinante says on Aug 12, 2008, 05:46:

When the Peso drops against the dollar I rush the ATM. How long will this last? I dont know but I like a little artificial control. China has been doing it since they said they stopped doing it in 2005.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Not that the US president actually runs the US." Feb 5, 2008

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asdfn says on Aug 12, 2008, 06:01:

yea, the col peso tracks commodities, which have come off considerably. the central bank started buying $20 million a day to fight appreciation as well. plus, the dollar is just getting a bid across the board lately.

my trip is in sept too, ill be rooting on the greenback in the short term.

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asdfn says on Aug 12, 2008, 06:02:

yea, the col peso tracks commodities, which have come off considerably. the central bank started buying $20 million a day to fight appreciation as well. plus, the dollar is just getting a bid across the board lately.

my trip is in sept too, ill be rooting on the greenback in the short term.

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asdfn says on Aug 12, 2008, 06:06:

yea, the col peso tracks commodities, which have come off considerably. the central bank started buying $20 million a day to fight appreciation as well. plus, the dollar is just getting a bid across the board lately.

my trip is in sept too, ill be rooting on the greenback in the short term.

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asdfn says on Aug 12, 2008, 06:06:

yea, the col peso tracks commodities, which have come off considerably. the central bank started buying $20 million a day to fight appreciation as well. plus, the dollar is just getting a bid across the board lately.

my trip is in sept too, ill be rooting on the greenback in the short term.

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gringoloid says on Aug 12, 2008, 06:42:

obviously the reason the central banks began buying dollars is because of this war in russia. the dollar, and oil would have gone over the cliff if this artificial strenthening hadn't occurred.

the fundamentals are still the same; until the federal reserve starts raising interest rates and the senate raises taxes to pay for this war then the beat goes on.

look for commodity prices to head on up again in the 4th quarter.

what would you rather have, artificially pumped up currency or gold?

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morphus says on Aug 12, 2008, 06:44:

Go dollar!

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morphus says on Aug 12, 2008, 06:46:

You could call it artificial or whatever but like it or not, the peso is pegged to the dollar to certain degree.

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morphus says on Aug 12, 2008, 06:53:

Its all a matter of how greedy the rich Colombians want to be. Colombia is already leading the world as the country with the biggest economic imbalance. I think FARC has been very nice so far. They are only holding hostages for months/years without killing them. If things get worse, they are going to have to kidnap these rich Colombians and riddle them with bullets just to make a point. They need to be run out of Colombia.

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gringoloid says on Aug 12, 2008, 07:01:

morph.........have you had a couple of drinks this morning?

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morphus says on Aug 12, 2008, 07:03:

Just a couple of O'doul's if that counts :)

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Simon says on Aug 12, 2008, 20:09:

GO PESO GOOOO!!!!

"DON'T FOK WITH COLOMBIA!!"-----Simon

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Gringo Spy says on Aug 12, 2008, 20:38:

It will get stronger on Friday (meaning it will go down from where it is today).

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 13, 2008, 03:16:

Lets see what happens in th coming weeks, its thin trading at the moment, traders are most likely playing at the moment.

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gringoloid says on Aug 13, 2008, 06:38:

GS, do you feel confident enough to say that the dollar would strengthen to 1.42?

you would need that kind of a move to make real money on a euro put.

i think it is too risky to make that bet so i´m staying out of it.

yesterdays surprising number of a lower trade deficit than forecast had alot to do with the strengthening to 1.49.

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gringoloid says on Aug 13, 2008, 06:42:

rubito is still controlling this peso challenge.............my gadget says 1823 right now.

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Saltador says on Aug 13, 2008, 08:24:

I just saw 1855. Hell of a dead cat bounce, I'm loving it...

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gringoloid says on Aug 13, 2008, 08:59:

i'm loving it too.........and like it a whole lot more if it would go to 2000 and above.

but the cat is still in the air.

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ColombianoGringo (Moderator) says on Aug 13, 2008, 09:57:

I'd be happy with 2,000. In the unlikely event that it ever got back up to 2,500, I'd be dancing a jig.

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 13, 2008, 10:18:

Saltador,

A few pecentage points is hardly a "hell of a dead cat bounce".

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Saltador says on Aug 13, 2008, 10:24:

CTGB,
Hey, I'm just cheerleading like all the guys who want the dollar to fall against the peso.
And I was being sarcastic about the dead cat bounce. The dollar haters like to break out that expression when the dollar rises. I was just beating them to the punch.
Any move up is a good move as far as I'm concerned.

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 13, 2008, 10:35:

Saltador,

Actually I said that it was a dead cat bounce, BUT I am no dollar hater, Euro or Peso lover, just what I feel it is.

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gringoloid says on Aug 13, 2008, 10:44:

as far as i know there is only one dollar hater around here and that is simon.........and i think he is being facetious and therefore, just kidding around.

i can't imagine why anyone would be thrilled with a 1000-1200 peso in the long run.

for once i have to agree with ctgbound, the fundamentals are still there for a weak dollar. when interest rates and taxes are raised along with a consistently better monthly current account then i'll jump on the dollar bandwagon.

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morphus says on Aug 13, 2008, 11:00:

Oh yeah, Simon the dollar hater...Simon the gringo hater. Sounds like he was bullied by some rednecks at one point in his life...LOL

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gringoloid says on Aug 13, 2008, 12:19:

I noticed in that great source of news, Fox, that they said the recent drop in oil was due to lessened demand in China and leading us to believe that it was chinese consumer driven.

What really happened was a mandatory closing of factories in China to improve air quality for the Olympics. With a quarter of Chinese economy affected, this lack of buying power had a big impact on the oil markets.

All the big boys, like the hedge funds were on the wrong side having gone long. These guys also have positions in metals and agricultural futures, so they were squeezed out of their positions to cover margin calls on oil.

So it was oil that drove gold, silver, corn, and soybeans lower as well.

When things start up again in China in a couple of weeks everything will be back to normal.

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briarblue says on Aug 13, 2008, 17:48:

Do you know quite a few gay hillbillies? Are you speaking from personal experience?

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asdfn says on Aug 14, 2008, 02:20:

how are you guys trading the peso? I'm at work looking at the institutional spot platforms for six major banks and none of them offer usdcop. is there a futures contract?

I can't imagine its very liquid if $20 million a day will push it up like this, that's nothing in the grand scheme of things.

I wouldn't call the dollar a dead cat bounce, interest rate differentials are about to reverse course, which was the last leg the recent euro run had to stand on. their fundamentals aren't so rosy and ours just can't get worse, barring armegeddon.

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 14, 2008, 03:20:

asdfn,

I don't trade it, I don't trade any currencies.

I take a longer view on what I think us going to happen regarding currencies or stockmarkets, Countries etc., I closed my stock trading portfolio by 2005, which I had started closing in 2003.

I went heavy into Asia stock markets late 1997 and carried on until 2001, although I have since sold certain markets over the last few years, like Korea making up to 1000%.

I swapped my Euros for dollars end of 2001 and early 2002, still holding mostly Euros, but as I have stated a few months ao I will be swapping them for dollars when I think its right, I swapped 33% of the Euros when the dollar was 1.59 to the Euro.

For Pesos I mostly invested in Colombia when the peso was 2,500 to 3,000 pesos to the dollar, but that was because I live here and wanted something to do, otherwise I wouldn't have bothered.

I don't see the Euro/US interest rate changing, I also still see more problems ahead for the US than Europe in the short term.

BUT I believe the Euro is overvalued against the dollar on fundamentals, but I see dollar weakness until more of the mess in the US is cleaned up.

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 14, 2008, 04:01:

gringoloid,

I don't see everything go back to what it was.

The high oil price & commodty prices are starting to feed through to lower growth, mostly in the developed markets, although it will also affect the developing markets, but to a lesser degree.

Many Countries and the people in them are addjusting to the high oil price, which will put strong downward presure on the oil price, as the old saying goes “nothing cures high prices like high prices."

Although prices of oils and other commodities may bounce back up, I think overall the commodity bull run is over, although I don't see overall that commodity prices dropping away dramitically either.

The main driver in the increase in the commodity market has been China, I see China exporting less due to les demand and the yuan appreciating.

I don't see any real problems for China on the growth side overall though as they have been trying to reign in internal demand for several years and can reverse that now, in fact they have already started, so Chinese growth could go down to 8% a year, although that would depend on how much their government wants to stimulate their economy.

But taking into account the developed Countries and other using less commodities due to the high price and growth slowdown, plus extra commodity coming online, this I expect will cancel out the continued growth of China for this turn of the cycle.

We shall see.

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tomtom33 says on Aug 14, 2008, 04:09:

The 60% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index since 10/07 would at least indicate some kind of correction, don't you think?

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 14, 2008, 04:11:

tomtom33,

It had gone up by so much, there was only one way it could go, but I don't see the index as representing anything in the real world, unlike some other countries stock markets.

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webmanco says on Aug 14, 2008, 04:35:

Still a long run for the dolar to be USD 1 = $4000 pesos :-) , if ever

...A yo, déjenme queto y no me jodan má! ...

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 14, 2008, 04:41:

webmanco,

"If ever" is a long time, I don't see it for now, but in the long run who can know, to many variables.

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gringoloid says on Aug 14, 2008, 15:14:

no one commented on my comment about the oil longs being squeezed so i'm going to expand a little.

there was a big liquidation of long positions in agricultural commodities that left the lowest amount of open interest in futures in years. given the robust demand for beans and corn, it does not make sense for there to be such low open interest. i don't buy it.

as far as i'm concerned, the commodities boom has not even begun yet. with the start of the olympics and the politcal conventions in the usa there appears to be some 'window dressing' going on.

i'm saying that once the chinese factories restart for business after the olympics and the phony political conventions are finished, oil starts heading up and will take metals and aggies along for the ride. so at the earliest the beginning of september, at the latest sometime in october the fun begins again.

btw, turns out, this depreciation of the australian dollar was caused by the japanese central bank unloading their inventory of AUD.

just my opinion.

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gringoloid says on Aug 14, 2008, 15:35:

and to apply the metrics, i purchased some jan 09 calls, on DBC with a strike of $45. Also purchased more gold.

ctg bound......... DBC, and that is also the stock symbol is a commodity tracking index ETF. You said that the commodity boom is over; .......so for once, are you willing to back that up with a statement that DBC will NOT rise to any new upward, stronger level above $38 a share? (maybe some upward 'bounces' though)

btw, those bounces you mention in commodity prices are the way i make my living.

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pedro says on Aug 14, 2008, 16:13:

Loid, worth mentioning that it's hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico over the next few months. Last couple of years have been quiet, who knows how it will go this year?

que nota!

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Joel y Luza says on Aug 14, 2008, 17:24:

i am betting on a 2500 COP by Dec...

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Joel y Luza says on Aug 14, 2008, 17:27:

Dollar fundementals are improving..inflation 5.7% annualized The Fed will raise rates 1/2 % by Dec...Developing economies and Europe are faltering, pushing the dollar higher on its relative strength.... Europe and the developing economies are more sensitive to commodities prices....

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RJQuilla says on Aug 14, 2008, 18:50:

2500???? What is the all time high?? Never been that good when I have been there.

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gringoloid says on Aug 14, 2008, 20:04:

yes, pedro, there is The Catalyst, and that could be anything.........a hurricane......a devastating earthquake etc. In my case, I've been wondering about a war in Iran and what type of retaliation the Iranians may strike back at the coalition of the willing. if the strait of hormuz was to be suddenly closed............that would be it, brother.

we can only add things to a list as i don't think anyone knows what's going to happen.

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gringoloid says on Aug 14, 2008, 20:12:

actually, i think this economy is just a facade........a mirage. take today for instance, the worst inflation report in 17 years, the seventh month in a row for increasing unemployment, home foreclosures increase by 55%, 9 banks have failed in the past 2 weeks.............and the stock markets rise wildly. what optimism.

i would like to know who is buying all these stocks. and on that inflation report, there should have been a sell off on bonds...................i dunno, but i'll tell you this............after election day, the fun starts.

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billyb says on Aug 14, 2008, 20:16:

“nothing cures high prices like high prices."

jaja, I like that, so true. Gringo, it might not be optimism as much as the fact that all the bad news is already built into the market and will now tend to react more to good news or even treat bad news that wasn't catastrophic as good news (then again that might qualify as optimism). It works inversely when the market is at the tippytop.

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gringoloid says on Aug 14, 2008, 20:19:

The futures market typically bottoms a couple of weeks before the worst news is out. So I think we're very near the end and things will change by Sept 1. I loaded up with gold at $790 an ounce..........I don't think it will go much lower than that.

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gringoloid says on Aug 14, 2008, 20:38:

it may be billy, but i've never seen that much bad news 'built into the market'. tell me what this good news is that the market is reacting to? maybe i'm missing something.

so we have billy, wendell, ctg bound, who say the commodity boom is over. anyone else?

everyone is foolishly celebrating lower oil prices and i see there is a big sell off of oil stocks.
Why do I say foolishly? Because, oil executives have said recently that $100 is the minimum oil price required to bring new oil supplies to the pump.

Any dip below those levels would be self-correcting -- it would mean no new oil to meet demand. It would also postpone the development of alternative energies. The result would be that prices rise considerably higher, very quickly.

the recent drop in oil prices isn't the end of the commodities boom. More likely it's the last great buying opportunity.

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billyb says on Aug 14, 2008, 20:51:

"so we have billy, wendell, ctg bound, who say the commodity boom is over. anyone else?'

Where did I say that? BTW, Saudi can get oil to the pump for about $2 per barrell.

".Saudi Oil Minister Al-Naimi estimated that it costs Saudi Arabia about $2 to produce a barrel of oil....................."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/16/AR2007...

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Joel y Luza says on Aug 14, 2008, 21:10:

one issue gringoid, is that congress is going to pass legislation to limit speculative buy of commodities, specifically oil. On the run up to $147, some barrels of oil were bought and sold 5 times.. kind of like the condo market in Miami.. The concensus, (oil producers, refiners, and down stream marketers), is that the true price of a barrel of oil should be between $80 and $100.

Why I am somewhat optimistic with the US market is that the US has some bad new ahead of it, but should shake out better than Europe and developing economies, (Colombia).. There is speculation that Britain and Germany could be heading into a flow blown recession, which will bury the Euro..

The US may be dealing with a real estate bubble, but some European countries have suffered through their own real estate issues too, contributing to a credit crunch... speaking of credit crunch.. I dont think Real estate will bounce back like it was, due to permenent changes in lending practices. Alot of houses are sitting vacant with price tags below replacement cost. Until THAT corrects, we will be back to a boring 3-5% appreciation in housing for many years to come

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gringoloid says on Aug 14, 2008, 21:12:

i totally agree...........there is no oil shortage..........this is just a ploy to get us into alternative energies. all those indians and chinese driving cars would wreck the atmosphere.

so after this world wide contraction is said and done everybody will be driving smaller cars and living in smaller houses.

alright, we'll cross you off the commodity boom is over list.

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billyb says on Aug 14, 2008, 21:18:

One sign of speculation in the oil market is the fact that in june and July only 2% of oil future contracts were delivered on. That means that 98% of the action was pure speculation as opposed to hedging. Then again, i never make predictions, not smart enough for that.

"Because, oil executives have said recently that $100 is the minimum oil price required to bring new oil supplies to the pump."

gringoloid, I would have bet you would have been the last person to believe what oil executives say .LOL.

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gringoloid says on Aug 14, 2008, 21:21:

they complain about us speculators.................the question they should be asking is, 'what's driving the speculators'?

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billyb says on Aug 14, 2008, 21:22:

I don't know. I guess what drives all markets, greed and panic??? BTW, I have no problem with speculators. If the market is there and they risk their money, more power to you.

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gringoloid says on Aug 14, 2008, 21:27:

no, really billy............i read a very long time ago that Mobil and Chevron executives as well as saudis and others said that they were cutting back production. with china and india coming on as big consumers, it was simply supply and demand.

that's how i knew that oil was going for that $150 a barrel ride back in 2005. a war in iran and we may see $200 a barrel.

I'm just not a Fox News watcher or believer.

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billyb says on Aug 14, 2008, 21:35:

GL, you may be misunderstanding me, I'm not arguing with your logic of how the oil market got to where it is, it seems to have been spot on (although you could add the security premuim to the price also), but just pointing out the fact that the STOCK market seems temporeraly oversold, as it is shrugging off bad news and embracing any good news, even if it comes in the form of bad news that wasn't as bad as was expected. And as i noted above, I am not smart enough to be able to predict how long that oversold mentality will continue, I leave that the to Wall Streeet Mavens of PBH.

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Joel y Luza says on Aug 14, 2008, 21:50:

IMHO I would love to see congress do a little anti trust splintering of the oil companies.. I knew, back in the 90's nothing good was going to come of those combinations...

I do really think that oil will back off annd hover around $80 a barrel for awhile... This abreviated oil spike, we just had, has reeked havoc with the world economy, and isn't sustainable, in the long run, without some sort of investment in alternative energy.. It pretty much turned Detroit into a ghost town, (I am not excusing big auto for having a shitty business plan.. If they couldn't see this coming, in time to retool, they deserve to have their clocks rung by the Koreans and Japanese)

Gringoloid, i agree, I do think this little spike was manufactured, to some extent, to push us toward an energy policy of some sort..I am rather surprised that the government hasn't looked at this from a national security stand point, (and economc sustainability) , and been more proactive in their intervention... At the very least, they could have went out on the foriegn currency markets and bought euro dollars, to bolster the dollar. That could have stopped the downward spiral of the dollar, and attenuated the meteoric rise of gas prices...

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billyb says on Aug 14, 2008, 21:57:

"At the very least, they could have went out on the foriegn currency markets and bought euro dollars, to bolster the dollar'

But wouldn't have been artificially bolstering the dollar as opposed to letting it find its natural level? And from what I can tell, it generally can't be sustained and usually doesn't wind up working, as it gives the market a signal of weakness, giving speculators the incentive to just ride it out.

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Joel y Luza says on Aug 14, 2008, 22:39:

I agree to a point...it really isn't artificially bolstering the dollar, since it is taking dollars, (in the foriegn market) out of the system....Since the market is already weak, I don't think, in the short term, it is going to matter much, but in the long term, it will push the dollar higher in relation to other currencies....

You are right, from a signaling theory perspective, it will pretty much tell the world that the Fed has used up its bag of tricks, and, at last resort, the government is intervening.

If you don't think it will work, look at the chinese economy and currency, other the last few years. They trade Dollars and Yuan like crazy to keep the Yuan lower than the dollar, (I think pegged at 2% lower than the USD). It works good for them..

The best thing for this economy is high oil prices, in the long run, since it makes out sourcing manufacturing jobs to China expensive, due to freight costs. Actually this would be good for Colombia, as, in theory, it could end up being less expensive than China to manufacturer goods destine for the US of A.

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billyb says on Aug 14, 2008, 22:47:

The problem (or solution) is that it being a globalized economy there are no longer any absolutes. Before you could count on certain things being good and certain ones bad, but now there are so many permutuations, where something might be good for us in one sense and harm us in another. Like your example with high oil prices and how it affects outsourcing. Like they say, it's a brave new world.

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Joel y Luza says on Aug 14, 2008, 22:58:

si si!! That I agree. Two companies, in my town, have recently announced outsourcing to India and China.. Funny thing, one company is outsourcing its accounting staff?!?!?!? to India.. along with its IT infrastructure... When administrative offices go, we just end up being a country of consumers...Actually not a country anymore.. More of just a market, where the world unload their goods and services...

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billyb says on Aug 14, 2008, 23:18:

I got one for you. One of our customers was having a hacking attack a couple of days ago and when we noticed it, we tried to contact their IT manager (and our only contact) for several hours and no luck. finally we shut them down from all outgoing traffic to save the from themselvesand all of a sudden she calls to complain about the service shutdown and when we explain that we couldn't contact her, she mentioned that it's because she is in Nepal. well that little bit of outsourcing cost them an extra $10k this month, and they are based just down the road from us.

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 15, 2008, 03:12:

gringoloid,

I believe that the main rises in commodity are over in this cycle, not sure what "so for once, are you willing to back that up with..."

Its quite a straight forward statement.

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 15, 2008, 03:34:

gringoloid,

"chinese factories restart for business after the olympics"

Only a small amount of business is closed in China around Beijing, it was also stated for months that China was sucking in extra oil and coal before the games started to make sure there were no shortgages and blackouts.

I wonder how much affect that had on the oil price and its rise over much of this year?

I read a number of artciles that said they thought oil would carry on going up until around when the games started and the pull back.

I hope you were on the right side of the pull back.

I don't blame speculators for the oil rise, they can only add to volatilty nothing else in a large market like the oil one.

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 15, 2008, 03:43:

gringoloid,

You predict a worldwide depression, not sure how this tallies with oil price rising to $200 and a overall commodity bull run.

Let me know your thoughts?

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tomtom33 says on Aug 15, 2008, 04:31:

"...congress is going to pass legislation to limit speculative buy of commodities, specifically oil."

Oil is a world commodity. Congress can only affect speculation in the US. The only affect of this legislation, if passed, would be to move speculation out of the US. Is this what we really want?

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morphus says on Aug 15, 2008, 06:06:

1.00 USD = 1,863.90 COP

HA HA...Suckers!

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gringoloid says on Aug 15, 2008, 06:07:

ctg bound...........Let me say this to start as the coffee is still brewing.........This past week, Warren Buffet out did himself in the purchase of stocks.......he usually buys about 2 billion dollars worth on average and this time he doubled his purchases and bought 4 billion. Most of it in oil stocks.

This is from a man who has had a 25% return on his portfolio each year for the last 30 years. I've piggybacked his trades for many years and have never been disappointed.

I know this doesn't mean anything but The Buff seems to know which stocks are going to go up.

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gringoloid says on Aug 15, 2008, 06:35:

ctgb, .........You ask about the worldwide contraction i've been talking about and the $200 a barrel oil. I'm only using the 70's as the example because what is happening now is exactly the way it was back then.

Oil went from about $1.50 a barrel to about $33 a barrel, i think it turned out be about a 26 fold increase. If that were to happen this time, oil would go to $250 a barrel with todays numbers.

I've also talked about 'The Catalyst', ........will it be a terrorist attack like Rubito says or will it be some war with iran..........i certainly don't know. But if/when this happens that will surely push oil up.

This conflict that erupted in the Caucases this past week has nothing to do with same old cold war terminology like communist and capitalist like you read on the pbh political threads........i believe it has more to do with a fundamental change in world dynamics and Russia trying to grab some resources. After all, GazProm may be the most important company in the world.

That Georgian pipeline was designed to bypass Russia and all Russia needs to do is conrol that pipleline and they dominate energy in western europe.

This is a resource war, not a cold war...........did you see how the Russians staged an air attack near the pipeline without damaging their prize? In a real war you would want to blow up the other guys oil facilities.

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gringoloid says on Aug 15, 2008, 06:45:

So in this 'resource war' the only weapon the USA has is its defense establishment. Did you see the agreement between the USA and Poland with missile placements?

As ghoulish as it may seem........defense stocks are the place to be right now and they are badly beaten down and oversold.

As a result, for the past 2 weeks i've been buying PPA a military defense ETF. I also started with NLR a few weeks ago but it's not doing to good. Maybe Buffets purchase of oil/nuclear stocks this week is the break i've been waiting for.

The only chance the USA has in this resource war is to keep developing their defense as it did in the cold war.

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billyb says on Aug 15, 2008, 06:47:

Go figure, oil down Dow up this morning, what gives?

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gringoloid says on Aug 15, 2008, 06:59:

Joel and Luza........you make this quote: ""At the very least, they could have went out on the foriegn currency markets and bought euro dollars, to bolster the dollar':"
.
.
In a comment above I address this situation. According to the Federal Reserve report, central banks around the world have been buying dollars like there is tomorrow for the past couple of weeks. That is what caused this uptick in the dollar.........nothing fundamental.....all artificial.

Some lurkers here at PBH that don't post wrote me on private mail to congratulate me on finding this statistic within the weekly fed report. This is huge brother, along with the Japanese world bank dumping their inventory of australian dollars this week.

it's something you won't find on fox news.

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billyb says on Aug 15, 2008, 07:01:

Yeah, but if it wasn't for Fox news we wouldn't have heard about the Montawk Monster.

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Joel y Luza says on Aug 15, 2008, 07:43:

I agree Gringoloid-I think the US govt should be buying Euro dollars, and take them off the market, just like the FED does with our domestic money supply, and not foriegn governments...I just think if GW Bush is going to espouse a strong dollar policy, he needs to take strong dollar actions.. As Billy said, however, buying euro dollars on the market is a sign of weakness, since it pretty much tells currency traders that our economy is so weak that we can't sustain healthy interest rates, relative to the rest of the world...

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 15, 2008, 07:49:

gringoloid,

As to Buffet fine, but he gets things wrong as well, to me making 25% a year for 30 years is OK, but nothing special, there are many others that make better, but like to keep quite about it, although it gets harder for any fund to keep making large percentage as they get bigger, as it is easier to make bigger percentage with smaller funds.

I am a smaller fund for example, over 14 years my average is 45% and I only use my own resources, five of those years I mostly took a break and followed things to a lot lesser degree.

There was no way oil was going to stay at $10 a barrel, only a fool would think that was a realistic price, copying the same percentage growth as the 70s is not really good science to me, but thats up to you.

Although some of the events you say could happen, I don't really see any of them as having any seriouse long term impact on the oil price and world economy, short term blip yes, long term no, a spike up then back down again.

Iran doesn't have the capabilities to disrupt the flow of oil out of Straights of Hormuz or the gulf, other than cause a few minor problems at the beginning of the war, before their assets are mostly destroyed, looking at the 80s, plus looking at what equipment they have compared with the US and other Countries, price would jump higher then go back down.

One big downer could be a sustained terorist attack on Saudi oil facilties, but the world would addjust and I don't see that pushing the world into depression.

But I am afraid I still don't see a squaring of the circle of a world wide depression and a high oil price.

I don't think you are negative thinking though, from 1986, I would tell people when the conversation came up, don't worry about the Russians, its those dam Arab Muslims who are going to start the next world war, some called me rasist etc. I suspect they now think differant.

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Tinto (Moderator) says on Aug 15, 2008, 08:32:

Yippee! Now Pasty White Gringos can afford better bling for their women in Colombia. Platinum has gone from $2200 USD per ounce to $1380 and gold has gone from $1050 to $780.

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Joel y Luza says on Aug 15, 2008, 08:41:

hmmm? COP 1890.....Don't think the drop in gold will mean more bling, but the COP at $2200 by October is going to make my fall trip to Colombia a lot more fun for me.. Alot better than the $1540 a while back!!!

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gringoloid says on Aug 15, 2008, 08:43:

I feel that many of you are awfully optimistic as a result of the commodity sell off this past month.

With the political conventions in the USA coming up.........a time when all eyes are on politicians..........the politicos are putting the liptstick on the pig.

As i told Billy, I don't see any fundamentals that have changed.

I've been saying all along that things don't really get started until after election day. We're just going to have to wait.

Ctg, you're correct, i'm not a pessimist.....i certainly don't believe the world is going to blow up anytime soon.....but this will be the greatest money making event of all time in the next couple of years.

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Joel y Luza says on Aug 15, 2008, 10:02:

two interesting facts....OPEC's oil revenues exceeded US tax reciepts for the year for the first time.. Oil has drifted down this week mainly because investors have had to sell to cover their settlements of futures contracts at $110/bbl of oil...other sources say that OPEC will markedly cut production if oil falls much below $90/bbl....

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Joel y Luza says on Aug 15, 2008, 10:04:

If the USD further strengthens, that may be hardfor them to do..If the Dollar strengthens too much...it may force our muslim oil suppliers to break their quotas....

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gringoloid says on Aug 15, 2008, 10:23:

i saw it simply as the dollar artificially strengthened and as a result everything valued in dollars simply decreased in price.

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gringoloid says on Aug 15, 2008, 10:42:

i think we've covered it all here, for now............so it's time to reminesce about the Old Medellin.

this is a picture of the 30st bridge in Medellin shortly after opening.

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Joel y Luza says on Aug 15, 2008, 11:18:

Gringoloid-- cool picture.. I love old pics... Its hard to phathom the change in the world sometimes until you glance back in history!! Thanks!!

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Saltador says on Aug 15, 2008, 11:28:

CTG Bound,
Damn, too bad I didn't throw 10,000 dollars your way 14 years ago. That 10,000 dollars would now be worth 1.8 million, at 45% for 14 years. I hope you started out with at least ten grand. And that you didn't go to the same accounting class that the "Beardstown Ladies" did...

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 15, 2008, 12:07:

Saltador,

A litlle bit more than that, but not a lot more, three of those years were at 90-96% growth, the growth over 5 of the last 6 years has been less than 45%, because of the reason given, otherwise it would have possibly been higher, or lower if I didn't play well.

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billyb says on Aug 15, 2008, 14:18:

"Beardstown Ladies"

Saltador, why is that ringing a bell? Are those those old ladies in an investnment club and it didn't end well, or something like that?

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Saltador says on Aug 15, 2008, 14:34:

They were these little old ladies that formed an investment club, and then wrote a best selling book claiming they had averaged 24% a year for about 15 years. This was astounding, because even the best money managers in the world would be hard pressed to average those kind of returns over a time period like that.
Well, someone audited them and when their books were scrutinized, they ended up averaging like 15% over a time period that the SP averaged 17%.

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billyb says on Aug 15, 2008, 14:50:

thanks.

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gringoloid says on Aug 15, 2008, 16:23:

the funny thing about it is that they're still around.............a few have died but they were replaced.

i say, "Jail the Beardstown Ladies"!

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briarblue says on Aug 15, 2008, 16:24:

Dead cat bounce? How about a reversal? If so, don't fight the trend, the trend is your friend.

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gringoloid says on Aug 15, 2008, 16:31:

we've already been through all that above blue, it's artificial and the fundamentals have not changed.

one more thing i want to add to my post about the central banks buying dollars is that they also dumped tons of gold on to the market these past few weeks. i didn't know this until late this afternoon.

so obama is nominated on aug 27.........then mccain on sept 3.............ok, shortly after that we will see the commodities arising...............although we may have to wait until election day. but after that? kiss your ass goodbye.

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gringoloid says on Aug 15, 2008, 16:43:

alright, lets get back to business..........this is a picture of the Junin Theatre and Normandi Hotel in Medellin. can any of you medellin experts say for sure if the building still exists?

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podborski says on Aug 16, 2008, 11:14:

hey loid, and who will win the bet on the value of the COP if it keeps going...to around 2150 or so??? : )

As for the commodity bubble or no....I want to go on record as being solidly on the fence, but if I had to make a guess, my gut says it's a bubble, and I think it's bursting right now.

As the US slows the whole world is going to slow...but just for a year or two and then I'd jump back on the oil and commodities bandwagon.

China and India are not going away, although they aren't as solid as people seem to think either.

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gringoloid says on Aug 16, 2008, 12:14:

pod, i think if the peso goes that high.........than you would win.

here is the breakdown again of the distributions:

1510 and under Rocinante wins
1511 and 1611 and Raaay wins
1612 and 1880 and Rubito wins
1881 and 2076, gringoloid wins.
2077 and 2120 and Pedro wins
2121 and over pod wins

it seems that Rubito has been dominating this contest for all but about a few hours.

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Tinto (Moderator) says on Aug 16, 2008, 12:18:

Is it any wonder? Rubito's guess has a 270 peso range, wider than any of the others.

Please refresh my memory: start and end dates of the contest?

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gringoloid says on Aug 16, 2008, 12:25:

I believe it was back in February that the contest began and the end date is January 1, 2009.

If I had to do this over again I would never have picked that date. At least we know that the currency markets will be closed for the entire day so only one number will be available.......but that will be December 31, 2008...........another bad day for the contest to end.

The problem with the distributions and ranges is that no one picked within the 1800 thru 1999 range so that´s why Rubito has such wide boundaries.

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pedro says on Aug 16, 2008, 18:17:

In a horse race, the only positions that count are those taken as they pass the winner's post.

Still plenty of running to go in this contest.

que nota!

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morphus says on Aug 18, 2008, 04:46:

The Junin Theater was demolished to build the Coltejer Tower.

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morphus says on Aug 18, 2008, 04:49:

1.00 USD = 1,875.10 COP

HA HA...SUCKERS!

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manINred says on Aug 18, 2008, 06:55:

Last time I went to Colombia the dollar was at that price, 1800/1900, and I was annoyed because at that point it was expensive to buy pesos, I was used to it being well above 2000.

Oh well, up up and away for the dollar hopefully :) Actualy, I'm not too fussed, it's not like i'm there now.

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