Will the Fed really raise interest? (Causing the Dollar to be stronger against the COP)

jonas says on Jun 13, 2008, 12:37:

bump

What I have, I do not want to lose, but Where I am I do not want to stay, but those I love, I do not want to leave, but those I know I no longer want to see, but Where I die, I do not want to go;I want to stay where I have never been

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rocinante says on Jun 13, 2008, 12:59:

The US fed reserve (not the president) will need to raise rates a few times over the next 3 years. It will be a while before the yield differential between the US and Colombia is slim enough to cause any major fluctuations towards a stronger dollar (vs the COP that is). JMHO

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

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nbenjamin says on Jun 13, 2008, 12:59:

Right now, the interest rate must be raised due to inflation fears.

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Joel y Luza says on Jun 13, 2008, 14:27:

say what? Hyper inflation? NOBODY has predicted that! Interesting!!!

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durito says on Jun 13, 2008, 15:11:

The next move will certainly be up. When that happens is uncertain though traders are predicting a 61% chance of a 1/4 pt raise at the next fed meeting August.

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miamimike says on Jun 13, 2008, 15:56:

I wouldn't mind seeing CDs at 12%, good place to stash my 401 IRA,,,my last long term CDs expired a while back that payed 10.5%,,,,

"Wait a minute. What did you just say? You're predicting $4-a-gallon gas? That's interesting. I hadn't heard that." -- Feb. 28, 2008 --George W. Bush, Washington, D.C.

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someguy says on Jun 13, 2008, 16:49:

I think the Fed will hold out on a rate increase until October or thereabouts & then raise it maybe a token quarter per cent & then hold. I don't think they really have the welfare of the average person's difficulties with inflation/oil or the strength of the dollar at heart. The Fed seems to be centered on emphasizing cheap exports & helping out the banker robber barons . I still can't believe they bailed out Bear Stearns. Good lord, that's out and out socialism!

Bernake is trying tp engage in a psychological verbal pissing contest now with all his recent bluster about a strong dollar and anti-inflation. It's about time, but he for sure is mostly all bluff. As a student of the Great Depression, Bernake will not sacrifice what he believes to be the cure for the economy (low interest rates) in favor of a strong dollar. I hope I am wrong.. I am tired of not having spending power abroad. My only consolation is I am most always wrong.

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nine inch nails says on Jun 13, 2008, 18:12:

Eventually (6-12 months) yes. It would be higher already if not for the housing market woes.
Remember the FED only recently took them down and in an emergency kind of way to help stem the tide of bank losses and foreclosures from the sub-prime debacle.

As soon as the FED feels most of the losses from sub-prime/adjustable rate mortgages resets is done with they will take them back up quickly.

They have a real mess trying to balance sub-prime woes and inflation but I'm confident they will minimize the damage both in US and world market.

get down, get down. are you afraid of the boogie monster?

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aztec says on Jun 14, 2008, 05:34:

Of curse the rates will be raised by the Fed. Probably sooner rather than latter.

"miamimike says on Jun 13, 2008, 15:56: flag

I wouldn't mind seeing CDs at 12%, good place to stash my 401 IRA,,,my last long term CDs expired a while back that payed 10.5%,,,,"

I remember that good utility bonds reached 17 and 18 per cent when Carter was president. The problem then was finding quality bonds that were not callable. If that happens again I will certainly be one of the first in line.

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sandman0011 says on Jun 14, 2008, 07:14:

COP median price closed at 1723 yesterday on rumors of a fed increase in June and another in 3rd quarter.

Colombia converted 500 Million of it's international debt from dollars to pesos yesterday in an effort to strengthen the dollar against the peso so it's exporters goods would be less expensive in world markets, especially the US.

The strong peso is killing Colombian exports. Flower growers have laid off 20,000 so far this year and coffee, bananas and other agricultural products are seeing the same effect.

On the other hand, the Colombians are buying up heavy machinery and other similar imports like crazy with their peso being so strong.

Somedays I wish I understood all of this macro-economic stuff while other days I am happy as hell I don't!

www.medellintravelguide.com and www.medellinvisitorsguide.com

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Joel y Luza says on Jun 14, 2008, 13:38:

Core inflation is 2%, (excluding food and oil)
Headline inflation 4% (including food and oil)

Thats not hyperinflation...The problem is deeper than that.. too much money in the markets are creating investment bubbles, (my theory of oil prices). In addition, a decoupling of economies from the dollar, (China, India, and Europe). and a VERY POOR tax policy adopted by the Republicans.

Government and consumer debt is deflationary, since it will, on the government side, raise interest rates, and on the consumer side, curb consumption, (demand). This is all bad for Asia, as they have been funding our party for too long, and their source of investment is going to dry up...

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GregYohn says on Jun 15, 2008, 23:37:

Hola!

The Fed Chief admitted he wants a stronger Dollar. Obama will end the 2 billion lost in Iraq and reinvest into the USA, so the Dollar will go up! World opinion is up for the USA! BUSH IS LEAVING!

12VOIP.com gives free calls to Colombia.Greg

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goin_south says on Jun 15, 2008, 23:44:

no; not raise. not now. not yet.

Some say: All things are better in...Medellin! ....Oscar Lopez just says it's better.....LATE!!! (WHERE EVER YOU ARE)

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Joel y Luza says on Jun 15, 2008, 23:58:

I feel like Rumpelstiltskin these last 8 years of Bush and Cheney... Can i wake up from this Friggin' nap now????

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rocinante says on Jun 16, 2008, 13:46:

Spoken like people who think the US President actually runs the US. Wake up guys.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

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Joel y Luza says on Jun 16, 2008, 13:57:

1984-exactly, too much money in the market creates inflation.... Unfortunately, too much money from China and India financing GW's War, through bond purchases, and investment. I don't think the Fed will let inflation get too out of hand, though we may end up with higher interest rates. I am of the opinion that rates need to be up about 6-8%, and we need a bit more regulation on Wall Street.

This country needs to get back to PRODUCING hard goods, and quit just being a financial and consumption market. Where we are at, economically, isn't sustainable for the average Joe, and needs to change.

Something is fundementally broken, in this country, where 20% of our GDP is allocated to healthcare costs, and over 50% of our national budget is for entitlements, such as social security, medicare and medicaid. I do think we need those things, but at the rate we are spending hard cash for those things, we are going to flame out, and we are going to see some dark days. That point we agree on, i think.

My point is that we are going to suffer those dark days alone, in this world, (The Americas), because China's and India's economies have decoupled from ours. All we are, now is a place to unload a bunch of poorly manufactured Basura.. That is one reason why I don't support the free trade act with Colombia, is Wal Mart will move in, and BAM! before you know it, Colombia's landfills will be full of useless junk made in China, vis a vie Wal Mart.

i don't think this is going to be inflation driven though, I think it is going to be a rather sharp reversion in our per capita GDP to that of a third world country....

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tomtom33 says on Jun 16, 2008, 16:56:

Exactly, Roci.

"GW's War" was authorized by Congress. For such a dumb shit, Dub sure pulled it over on the Dems, eh?

And if you think that something is broken in the US, come to Colombia.

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BillBigD says on Jun 16, 2008, 17:07:

Headline inflation 4% (including food and oil) take into account seasonal adjusted rate and inflation was 11% last month.

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Joel y Luza says on Jun 16, 2008, 22:16:

bump 1% over 6 months

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Ctg Bound says on Jun 19, 2008, 03:44:

BillBigD,

Headline line inflation 11% last month.

Where not in the US?

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BillBigD says on Jun 19, 2008, 13:39:

CTG- If you count the seasonal adjustment it was 11%

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Ctg Bound says on Jun 19, 2008, 14:21:

BillBigD,

Got a link?

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jonas says on Jun 25, 2008, 15:29:

OK so they actually didn`t raise.

Very few had it right here.... a lot of wishful thinking?

winners are:

someguy
nine inch nails
1984
goin south
jonas

What I have, I do not want to lose, but Where I am I do not want to stay, but those I love, I do not want to leave, but those I know I no longer want to see, but Where I die, I do not want to go;I want to stay where I have never been

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gringoloid says on Jun 25, 2008, 15:53:

i wonder what they eat for lunch at these Federal Reserve meetings......baloney sandwiches??

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gringoloid says on Jun 25, 2008, 16:01:

ctg bound,

big bill is referring to the rate calculated by the formula that was used before the noninhaling Clinton Administration changed the system.

it was changed to deny social security recipients a check based on the effects of inflation. ss checks would be double today if the old formula were used.

this new way of calculating the CPI is about 7% less than what it would be under the old system.

there are many services that provide the 'real' number and today inflation in the usa is running at 11.8%.

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tejasmarcos says on Jun 25, 2008, 19:51:

the fed is not going to raise crappola while the war is still being financed by the fiat moneymaking machine. we are just coming into the inflation cycle now....

trying to walk a straight line on sour mash and cheap wine...

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