What if Colombia goes to war against Venezuela and Ecuador?

robi666 says on Mar 4, 2008, 05:24:

Would we see tio Hugo's flag on the poles in Bogotà?

"I am a citizen of the most beautiful nation on earth. A nation whose laws are harsh yet simple, a nation that never cheats, which is immense and without borders, where life is lived in the present."

rocinante says on Mar 4, 2008, 05:33:

I think the US is champing at the bit for Colombia to get into some sort of conflict with Chavez in order to take him out. THIS and only THIS is what worries me. I hope I am wrong. Otherwise I don't think any of the 3 countries in even the slightest remote possibility want to go to war.

If there is a conflcit you can bet the ACME Tomato Co. will be deployed and I bet Venezuela and Ecuador both know this. I have posted this before when Chavez was news months ago. There will tremendous support behind the scenes by the US if there isn't already.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

ronald1168 says on Mar 4, 2008, 05:35:

I think that Colombia has more then enough fire power to defend itself to some migs and old russian cannons from Chavez and the bamboo sticks from Ecuador. Problem is that most of the Colombian military are comitted to the war on FARC and ELN.

ronald@donders.co.uk

El Polo says on Mar 4, 2008, 05:40:

without US intervention it would be difficult to withstand an invasion from both borders, however even if colombia can not militarily hold off both countries and no US help, there will be plenty pockets of resistance due to Colombias terrian. So no, no venezuelan flag in Bogota

suizo says on Mar 4, 2008, 05:44:

It really does not make sense to talk military tactics. Let's be realistic: No way there is going to be a war (although I like the thought of Chavez getting his ass kicked)... Chavez should shut up his big mouth, this is just to cover up his own domestic problems. Hopefully, this situation can be resolved quickly and peacefully...

Monpirri says on Mar 4, 2008, 05:46:

I agree with Suizo!

P.S. And with Rocinante, Ronald1168 and Polo.

Annette Taddeo for US Congress 2008

jatoler says on Mar 4, 2008, 05:49:

Since I am at work, I'll just comment on the air forces.

Ecuadar: Smallest Airforce of the three and only about 60K active miltary personell. They have a few semi-modern isreali jets but nothing to wow you.

Venezuela: Most Modern Airforce of the three now that Chavez has new Su-30 and a few F-16s. Chavez also has purchased more Russian fighters that are due to be delivered sometime this year as well.

Colombia: Not as modern as Venezuela's Airforce due to thier reliance on French Mirages and thier Isreali variants. Most of Colombia's air force is based upon Ground Support to fight rebels, not air superiority.

For the most part, Venezuela holds a distinct advantage over Colombia when we are talking about Air Superiority. If the US becomes involved however, then Venezuela's Air Superiority will be non-existant due ot the fact that the US Air Force's F-16s, F/A-18s, and new F-22s would have a field day against the Su-30's who's strenght lies in thier versality and not exactly in thier Air- to Air Combat against pure interceptors.

robi666 says on Mar 4, 2008, 06:01:

Thanks, jatoler, that's the kind of answer I was looking for.

So, if the US doesn't get involved, Venezuelans will kick Colombian asses on air.
What about ground forces and navy?

"I am a citizen of the most beautiful nation on earth. A nation whose laws are harsh yet simple, a nation that never cheats, which is immense and without borders, where life is lived in the present."

tomtom33 says on Mar 4, 2008, 06:01:

"I think the US is champing at the bit for Colombia to get into some sort of conflict with Chavez in order to take him out."

I respectfully disagree with this. Chavez is only a flea on the elephant's back. The elephant has much bigger fish to fry and fewer expat Venezuelanos to stir the pot.

jatoler says on Mar 4, 2008, 06:06:

If inclined to fight a war, Chavez would most likely attack the airbases and ports before making any serious inroads into the country by land. He would most likely drop paratroopers behind enemy lines in the jungle to meet up with some FARC rebels and disrupt supply lines. By this time, the FARC would launch attacks in a country wide campaign, and Ecuador would have to decided whether to start shooting or decide to sit this one out. The United States would send one fleet to "observe" off of the Venezualan coast, and one to observe off the Ecuadorian coast which of course would be providing intelligence information to the Colombians. The Colombians will most likely keep a successful defensive posture with some presicion attack missions until some other factor ends the war. (That other factor would most likely be US intervention, an internal coup within the Colombian or Venezualan peoples, or a virtual stalemate is evident and both sides sue for peace)

tomtom33 says on Mar 4, 2008, 06:06:

I wonder how well those Soviet planes function in the hands of Venezuelans? They haven't had them that long.

I have doubts about any of Venezuela's F-16s being functional at this point. They need hours of maintenance for every hour in the air, and they have had access to no repair supplies for how long now?

miamimike says on Mar 4, 2008, 06:06:

Global Security on Venezuela's Armory: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/venezuela/industry.htm

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/08/15/news/russia.php

Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we." GW Bush

morphus says on Mar 4, 2008, 06:08:

The most that will happen is a border squirmish. A war would'nt make sense unless one country is trying to take over another.

jatoler says on Mar 4, 2008, 06:11:

OK Sorry for the long-windedness....

Robi666: To answer your second question, you have a better chance of seeing an American flag on Bogota flagpole than a Venezualan.

Suizo and El Polo are both right as well in my opinion. This seems like an overture by Chavez to manipulate something. Perhaps to drive oil prices higher?

morphus says on Mar 4, 2008, 06:16:

Now is a good time for the U.S. to take out Chavez. Chavez is funding FARC with millions of dollars. FARC is trying to build a radioactive bomb. Thats more than they had on Saddam Hussein.

billyb says on Mar 4, 2008, 06:18:

The only advantage venezuala holds is air sureriority in equipment, we don't know how well trained they are in their new russian Su-30, we certainly know the have no combat experience in them. They also have more tanks, but Colombian terrain and lack of resupply capabilites on the venezuelan's part negates that advantage. Colombia's armed forces are more than twice the size of venezuela's and when it comes to highly trained troops with years of combat experience, it works out to around 80,0000 to zero. Now lets talk motivation, Colombia's troops will be highly motivated to defend la patria, while venezuela's armed forces,from the generals on down will be loath to invade a "brother" country just so their lunatic leader can help out a bunch of narco-terrorists with virtually zero support intheir country. When it comes to battlefield intelligence, venezuela would be practically blind, while we can be sure the us will provide Colombia with all sorts of elint. Venezuela might get the initial advantage due to its airforce, but the tide would soon turn and Colombia would win.

jatoler says on Mar 4, 2008, 06:23:

Thanks BIllyB. You are def right about the experience and training. How long have the Colombians been fighting the FARC, ELN, and NKOTB in the jungles? Well maybe not NKOTB....but I hear they are making a comeback...

Monpirri says on Mar 4, 2008, 06:27:

Amen to Bill!

Annette Taddeo for US Congress 2008

rocinante says on Mar 4, 2008, 06:28:

TomTom - the USA is no slouch when it comes to multitasking. Venezuela has OIL and has recently ousted many cronies with strong strong US political ties from its proifit center. This problem with the oil industry vs. Venezuela is long from over. This worries me as I don't want to see Colombia being the pawn in the chess match between the US oil interests vs. Banana Head Rebpulic Dictator.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

tomtom33 says on Mar 4, 2008, 06:32:

Hopefully that won't be the case.

durito says on Mar 4, 2008, 06:51:

There will not be a war.

The Venezuela military is not interested (neither is Colombia's or Ecuador's), despite what Chavez says. Chavez may have been stockpiling weapons recently, but his troops are poorly trained and have spent recent years doing things like running gov't food stores. They'd hardly be a match for the Colombians who have been fighting an internal war for 40 years.

Much like when Chavez wanted to steal the election a few months ago and the army told him they would not back him if he did, I think you'll see a similar result if he really tries to start something.

pedro says on Mar 4, 2008, 06:55:

There was a thread a few weeks back, where military analysts in Colombia discussed exactly this. Unfortunately, I can't find it now.

I did stumble across this:
http://poorbuthappy.com/colombia/post/venezuela-posses-the-strongest-a...

From memory, Venezuela has the superior airforce, Colombia has the better developed navy. Colombia has greater troop numbers with more combat experience.

¡save pow wow!

billyb says on Mar 4, 2008, 07:07:

In looking over Pedro's link above, I found this gem from Sr. T. I wonder if he still stands by this?



" Sr Tertius says on Thursday December 28th, 2006 22:14:

Giann When a point has been made without evidence over and over and over again, and when you are exhausted of asking for such evidence, the only thing left to say is "bullshit." And that's what all this fuzz about Chavez is. Chavez supporting FARC? Evidence please. Also, if anyone cares to provide a hint of hard evidence that suggests that the increase in military expenditure in Venezuela is any more threatening to Colombia's national security than, say, the US's, then we can have an informed discussion. Before that, it's just undebatable bullshit.

Tell me of any informed opinion IN COLOMBIA that seriously (that excludes Fernando Londoño) suggests that Chavez is a threat to the region. The more extreme opinion I've heard is from Rangel (a very conservative guy) who, in synthesis, says "we should keep track of Chavez as much as of anyone else." I think all the fuzz comes from the US, and some people consume just too much of their media.

As a side note: How come nobody was so worry when Fujimori increased the Peruvian military expenditure and even initiated hostile actions against Ecuador? That should've worried us, shouldn't it? I mean, after all, we HAD a war with Peru not that long ago, whereas with Venezuela... a minor incident or two, nothing really serious, certainly not since the Barco administration"

tejasmarcos says on Mar 4, 2008, 07:10:

chavez is doing nothing more that flexing his jaw muscles at this point in time. he wants to be recognized on the world stage. as someone stated above, it could have the effect of bolstering already expensive petroleum prices.

- it sure puts the usa in a funny position as we normally back the biggest oil producer. i think skirmish is about all this will escalate to. maybe it will reverse the current money exchange pattern...........

- this is actually a smart strategic move by chavez as it forces people to take sides and gives him a better idea who his allies are now and in the future. i have no idea what he does with that info though?

god is in your head

billyb says on Mar 4, 2008, 07:14:

The problem for chavez is that his allies are just checkbook allies, and if that dries up, he can count on them for sh!t.

dwr says on Mar 4, 2008, 07:18:

I do believe it is time to freeze assets of the 14,000 Citgo gas stations in the U.S. Cease petroleum imports from Venezuela and see what Chavez does then.

billyb says on Mar 4, 2008, 07:21:

Here is a link to venezuela/ecuador war planning vis-a-vis Colombia.

http://www.semana.com/wf_VerMultimedia.aspx?IdMlt=523&IdArt=109919

tejasmarcos says on Mar 4, 2008, 07:21:

where would we get that 30% of oil we currently import from venezuela, then? the usa cannot do anything to disrupt oil imports. people are freaking out over $3 per gallon and auto manufacturers are going down the tubes because of the squeeze this effect has on mr and mrs usa consumer.

god is in your head

billyb says on Mar 4, 2008, 07:23:

US imports only 10% of oil imports from Venezuela, which translates to a little less than 5% of US oil consumption. While the US accounts for 40% of venezuelan oil exports, do the math to see who gets hurt worse.

tejasmarcos says on Mar 4, 2008, 07:26:

i heard a few years back it was 30%. maybe they have reversed that figure some ........

- that map by billyb from semana gives all the numbers. we basically have a ground war scenario on our hands with some air strike capability mainly from helicopters. colombia looks well positioned......

- venezuela has the upper hand with tanks, but how do you use those in the jungle?

god is in your head

billyb says on Mar 4, 2008, 07:28:

They both have been mutually lessening their dependence on each other.

dwr says on Mar 4, 2008, 07:33:

Higher oil prices are a given going forward. 3 bucks to drive 20-30 miles is still cheap. Furthermore, higher oil price will provide the stimulus the world needs to invest in alternative sources. We can't keep sending our wealth to rogue states forever to keep our oil based economy alive. It is a losing proposition. It will hurt without a doubt but we need to think of generations to come.

Let China or India build the refineries required to process the heavy crude Chavez produces. Don't think it will happen at 104 dollars a barrel. That would require an extreme investment and high freight to deliver to the other side of the world.

Invasion of Colombia isn't going to happen. Boots on the ground in Colombia by Venezuelan military translates into a long walk in the jungle. Airstrike would be countered immediately by the US who has a relatively strong presence in Colombia already. Ecuador is a non-issue as they have no military strength. Not to mention that Colombia has a civilian population that is armed the teeth and would most definitely take arms against any Venezuelan presence within it's borders.

Chavez needs to be addressed with economic pressure and hopefully he will fall from within. Uribe needs to continue his well played offensive and continue following these deliquents anywhere they may roam. No comments to the references to uranium being discussed in the news? A nuclear Chavez/FARC would change everything.

ColombianoGringo says on Mar 4, 2008, 07:33:

Is it still true that the US is the only country with a significant capacity to refine Venezuela's high sulphur crude?

Catfish35 says on Mar 4, 2008, 07:36:

Cant we all just get along? (Rodney King). I think we all need a big three country HUG!

"I refuse to have a battle of intelligence with an unarmed person, therefore I will just speak as the simpleton you have come to love"

tejasmarcos says on Mar 4, 2008, 07:38:

viva "el gran colombia"!

god is in your head

ColombianoGringo says on Mar 4, 2008, 07:42:

That would be LA Gran Colombia. Or maybe we can just go back to calling it Nueva Granada.

durito says on Mar 4, 2008, 07:49:

http://doc.noticias24.com/0803/gm04.jpg


http://doc.noticias24.com/0803/gp04.jpg

podborski says on Mar 4, 2008, 07:53:

billyb I don't think it's coincidence that sr t has been quiet lately...his relentless apologizing for chavez looks worse by the minute

tasco66 says on Mar 4, 2008, 08:19:

Veni, vidi, vici

tasco66 says on Mar 4, 2008, 08:22:

" Sr Tertius says on Thursday December 28th, 2006 22:14:

Giann When a point has been made without evidence over and over and over again, and when you are exhausted of asking for such evidence, the only thing left to say is "bullshit." And that's what all this fuzz about Chavez is. Chavez supporting FARC? Evidence please. Also, if anyone cares to provide a hint of hard evidence that suggests that the increase in military expenditure in Venezuela is any more threatening to Colombia's national security than, say, the US's, then we can have an informed discussion. Before that, it's just undebatable bullshit."

Sr. T is unbeatable when it comes to BS.

Veni, vidi, vici

Gator says on Mar 4, 2008, 08:22:

As the brother-in-law said, "If you see an solder from Ecuador crossing the frontier with his fingers in his ears, eyes shut tight tapping the ground with his toe-do not sweat it-that is an Ecuadorian mine detector."

"Brevior Sltare Cum Deformibus Mulieribus Est Vita!" .

ColombianoGringo says on Mar 4, 2008, 08:22:

Durito, Thanks for the maps. I'm surprised that Chavez isn't posting troops near La Guajira. It is considered by many to be Colombia's most vulnerable area with regards to Venezuela.

ColombianoGringo says on Mar 4, 2008, 08:25:

ORVEZ Huh? Great. All we need is another "exile" group in South Florida. We know how effective the Cubans have been.

podborski says on Mar 4, 2008, 08:31:

just an aside: the front page and first 2 inside pages of La Nacion and Clarin are all about the Colombia/Ecuador/venezuela situation.

One article is headlined: El riesgo de una guerra por accidente

I didn't have time to read it, but they seem to think the risk of some sort of war is there.

Personally, I agree with most others here, this is just Chavez being belligerant and a blow hard as usual, trying to distract attention form his mounting domestic problems.

I'd say the risk of actual hostilities is very low,

tejasmarcos says on Mar 4, 2008, 08:33:

nice maps, durito.

god is in your head

durito says on Mar 4, 2008, 08:36:

The problem that comes up without any diplomatic relations is that it increases the likelihood that some small incident along a border blows up into a war.

Simon says on Mar 4, 2008, 09:40:

"That would be LA Gran Colombia. Or maybe we can just go back to calling it Nueva Granada."


Actually, the nation that existed from 1819-1830 composed of Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Panama was just called 'Colombia' back then. Historians refer to it as 'Gran Colombia' to differentiate it from modern-day Colombia.

"You want to talk to God? Let's go see him together, I've got nothing better to do."---Indiana Jones (Raiders of the Lost Ark)

Simon says on Mar 4, 2008, 09:42:

"I'm surprised that Chavez isn't posting troops near La Guajira. It is considered by many to be Colombia's most vulnerable area with regards to Venezuela."


Shhhhhhh!!! Chavistas might be reading this, don't give them any ideas!

"You want to talk to God? Let's go see him together, I've got nothing better to do."---Indiana Jones (Raiders of the Lost Ark)

ColombianoGringo says on Mar 4, 2008, 09:44:

I don't know about La Gran Colombia, but I actually have a map from the 1800s that listed everything as Nueva Granada. I'm not sure how we came to have this map, but it is an authentic, extremely old antique map. I would try to scan it, but I'd be afraid I'd damage it.

Simon says on Mar 4, 2008, 09:47:

That sounds like a great antique.....cuídelo bien.

"You want to talk to God? Let's go see him together, I've got nothing better to do."---Indiana Jones (Raiders of the Lost Ark)

morphus says on Mar 4, 2008, 09:49:

Simon says on Mar 4, 2008, 09:51:

It's too bad 'Gran Colombia' split up, we could have been a geat power today if we had stayed together.

"You want to talk to God? Let's go see him together, I've got nothing better to do."---Indiana Jones (Raiders of the Lost Ark)

Simon says on Mar 4, 2008, 09:51:

From Wikipedia:

"Gran Colombia (Spanish for Great Colombia) is a name used today for the Republic of Colombia of the period 1819-1831."

"Simón Bolívar, the Liberator of Spanish South America, and other revolutionaries in the First Venezuelan Republic occasionally used the term Colombia as a reference to all of Spanish America, until the proclamation of a republic under that name in 1819 at the Congress of Angostura."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gran_Colombia

"You want to talk to God? Let's go see him together, I've got nothing better to do."---Indiana Jones (Raiders of the Lost Ark)

pedro says on Mar 4, 2008, 09:54:

New developments in the news:

* Venezuela announced they are closing the border with Colombia (edited - apparently no trade, but still movement of people)

* Bush spoke by telephone with Uribe, and is going to give a speech at 1pm on Colombia, but mainly focused on the FTA.

* Correa is flying to Brazil for discussions, as well as other countries in the region.

¡save pow wow!

ColombianoGringo says on Mar 4, 2008, 09:56:

"Correa is flying to Brazil for discussions"

Then he will fly to Caracas for INSTRUCTIONS.

Desideria (Moderator) says on Mar 4, 2008, 09:57:

"It's too bad 'Gran Colombia' split up, we could have been a geat power today if we had stayed together." ....I think that might be what Hugo has in mind too...

"None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free." —Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

Simon says on Mar 4, 2008, 09:57:

Looks like Correa is trying to muster up support in the region for an eventual confrontation against Colombia.

BRING THEM ON!!!

"You want to talk to God? Let's go see him together, I've got nothing better to do."---Indiana Jones (Raiders of the Lost Ark)

DodgerDogs says on Mar 4, 2008, 09:59:

From this mornings news.


Second video shows build up in La Guajira, they just closed the border by Maicao
this morning.

Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter.Martin Luther King:

Simon says on Mar 4, 2008, 10:01:

"....I think that might be what Hugo has in mind too..."

Yeah, but he wants to form a communist/socialist Gran Colombia and that's where he's wrong.

"You want to talk to God? Let's go see him together, I've got nothing better to do."---Indiana Jones (Raiders of the Lost Ark)

durito says on Mar 4, 2008, 10:05:

Chavez might be the dumbest person alive.

Most analysis in foreign papers today suggested that the strong trade ties between all countries would prevent anything serious from happening. But, no Chavez has to close to border. I'm sure the Venezuelan people that have no food are real thrilled.

joeylove007 says on Mar 4, 2008, 10:12:

It would be a knockout for Colombia. They have 255,000 active in the military. The reserves are around 85,000. 33 helicopters, some Blackhawks and tactical fighter/bombers. U.S technology is also the biggest factor. Twice what both Venezuela and Ecuador have and both still with a 1960's military. Colombian solders are also hardened battle trained for over 40 years. Even the paramilitary could whip them both. Chavez is a chime in the wind...all hot air. He knows he cannot win. Colombia shields Panama. They are the last tiger blocking the canal from being taken over by any foreign power. You really think the USA would allow Colombia to lose? The biggest danger Colombia has is in the states. The liberals in congress with Nancy Pelosi (the Syrian) voting to cut defense and aid to Colombia. What an ignorant San Francisco peanut brain!

Trust no one...except God. Hope to retire in Colombia

tejasmarcos says on Mar 4, 2008, 10:16:

"* Venezuela announced they are closing the border with Colombia (presumably no trade, nor movement of people)"

- that my friend, is a big deal. no doubt the colombian stock market has taken a hit? and now bush is taking this perfect opportunity to grandstand the fta - only saving political face. what good will it do? unless he is trying to pit the democrats against chavez? hmmmmm, interesting to say the least.......

** what the heck is happening to my exchange rate?!?!?! war is going on for god sake! more pesos dammit! i'm gonna have to hire my own private security!

god is in your head

pedro says on Mar 4, 2008, 10:17:

Venezuela has the better airforce.

Surely Venezuela would establish air superiority. Colombia would then be pounded by Venezuelan airstrikes in the cities and military bases as an opening. An actual invasion would most likely end in a stalemate.

This is assuming no fourth parties (beyond Col/Ven/Ecuador).

¡save pow wow!

tejasmarcos says on Mar 4, 2008, 10:22:

that is a loooooong way over the border for an airstrike (bogota), pedro. i wonder if the usa would deploy interceptor fightors if that happened? what a bunch of drama! the media is loving it, anyways.....

what military bases are on the border of venezuela?

god is in your head

ColombianoGringo says on Mar 4, 2008, 10:24:

Does Colombia have any SAM capability?

tejasmarcos says on Mar 4, 2008, 10:25:

CG - only the best money can buy from the usa. part of plan colombia, right?

god is in your head

ColombianoGringo says on Mar 4, 2008, 10:27:

Yeah. But Plan Colombia is focused on anti-guerrilla and anti-narcos. Neither has a real air force so I would be surprised if Colombia spent much money on SAMs.

tejasmarcos says on Mar 4, 2008, 10:31:

good point. i would still bet money that there is alot of weaponry buildup here that is not known by the general public. remember, the usa still has to protect their troops here.

god is in your head

pedro says on Mar 4, 2008, 10:33:

Well, I don't claim to be any kind of military analyst or know much about this stuff. Just thinking out loud.

Numbers may not count as much as materiel in the early stages of any hypothetical war.

¡save pow wow!

tejasmarcos says on Mar 4, 2008, 10:38:

i wonder what the bigger picture is here? i mean we are all looking at it from a "chess match" perspective. there has to be bigger political and economic agendas at play here.

- i see the advantage for the usa and to colombia to a lesser degree in terms of the fta. what else? how the hell does venezuela benefit? they just turn off the $$ valve with major trade partners - how does that benefit anybody?

god is in your head

El Polo says on Mar 4, 2008, 10:41:

According to Wiki Colombia has the 24th largest military in the world, larger than the UK, Venezuela is 49th and not too far behind Venezuela is Kazakhstan at 58th

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_size_of_armed_forces

kat1 (Moderator) says on Mar 4, 2008, 10:45:

Vean hay va un chiste

pongalen cuidado

primera escena sale una puta
segunda escena sale la puta con un fusil y camuflada

tercera escena sale la puta tambien con bombas y granadas titulo de la pelicula "se armo la hijueputa"

heheheheh

El Polo says on Mar 4, 2008, 10:47:

jeje

DodgerDogs says on Mar 4, 2008, 10:51:

The tit for tat between Chavez and Uribe , is costing the working class.
Already the gas in the barrios has risen from 1,600 to 2,500 a gallon as pimperos can not
sneak across from Maicao in large amounts.....................................................................

¿Cómo afecta al Cesar la militarización de la frontera venezolana?

Precios suben y bajan en el agro cesarense, mientras que las empresas se mantienen a la expectativa en torno a las relaciones colombo-venezolanas.

Tal es el caso de Coolesar, empresa que ofrece servicios de frigorífico, planta de leche, pulverizadora y almacén veterinario.

Su gerente, Jorge Saade, resaltó que “el problema fronterizo actual repercute directamente en nosotros; en primer lugar contra el ganadero, en segundo contra los exportadores, en tercer lugar contra nuestra planta, y en cuarto contra el empleado�.

Sin embargo, Saade expresó que “a pesar de lo anterior, ayer se despachó toda la carne sin ningún inconveniente y no se han cuantificado pérdidas. Se debe comprender que esto es una cadena, y que en la medida en que no se solucionen los problemas, se verán afectadas muchas personas, tanto en Venezuela como en Colombia.

Igualmente, la exportación de productos como los nuestros genera entrada de divisas al país�.

Por otro lado, los vendedores del Mercado Público de Valledupar no sólo se encuentran a la expectativa sino también preocupados porque los precios de productos básicos de la canasta familiar, tales como el arroz, el azúcar y el aceite han acrecentado su precio de forma alarmante.

Freddy García, vendedor de abarrotes en este lugar, afirmó que “los colegas dicen que el precio del bulto de arroz aumentó a 82 mil pesos, antes estaba entre 65 mil y 70 mil pesos�. Igualmente, Rosalba Guzmán, dedicada a la venta de verduras, agregó que “el plátano y el guineo están carísimos, la mano de plátano está en mil 600 pesos, te están dando siete guineos en mil pesos y el usuario ve eso muy caro. He escuchado a los tenderos que llegan al puesto mío que dicen que una caneca de aceite que antes les costaba 45 mil pesos ahora les está costando entre 60 mil y 70 mil pesos�.

Mientras tanto, la Presidencia de nuestro país reitera su afecto y respeto al pueblo venezolano, y en consecuencia no hará movimientos de tropas a dicha frontera debido a que no tiene tradición belicista.

Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter.Martin Luther King:

durito says on Mar 4, 2008, 11:22:

No one would benefit from a war -- while except perhaps the military contractors/companies that supply weapons.

The economies and people (most specifically the poor) would suffer the most.

Chavez may have purchased a bunch of Russian planes, but that doesn't mean he knows how to use them.

It's pretty clear that Chavez has so messed up the economy in Venezuela that he needs to do something drastic to keep support for him going. Wars have a way of doing that at least initially. That or he can use the war as excuse to make himself dictator.

I just saw that the Venezuela opposition is organizing a protest on Saturday against this move by Chavez and against any Venezuelan gov't support for the FARC.

scotty says on Mar 4, 2008, 11:51:

today (Tuesday) chavez moved more troops to the border with Colombia as did Ecuador.

billyb said something i have to disagree with he said colombia had twice the troops that venezuela has, thats not correct, venezuela has 220,000 military personal and Colombia has 255,000.

venezuela has more planes and more tanks than Colombia, i do nor know about either countries Navys.

Get Rhythm, when you got the blues. Johnny Cash

kalder says on Mar 4, 2008, 11:58:

Some facts and figures from the London Times:

Venezuela

Defence budget (2007): $2.56 billion

Active members of military: 115,000

Reserve members of military: 8,000

Main battle tanks: 81

Light tanks: 109

Armoured personnel carriers: 71

Attack helicopters: 13

Planes (combat capable): 104

Submarines: 2

Warships (principal surface combatants): 6

Colombia

Defence budget (2007): $5.10 billion

Active members of military: 254, 259

Reserve: 61,900

Armoured personnel carriers: 228 plus

Attack helicopters: 31

Planes (combat capable): 115

Submarines: 4

Warships (principal surface combatants): 4

Ecuador

Defence budget (2007): $918 million

Active members of military: 57,100

Reserve members of military: 118,000

Light tanks: 24

Armoured personnel carriers: 123

Attack helicopters: 18

Planes (combat capable): 57

Submarines: 2

Warships (principal surface combatants): 8

"kalder- have you ever had a woman?"--Sam Salmon

jatoler says on Mar 4, 2008, 11:58:

Yeah both countries navies are pretty negligible. Colombia has like 5 or 6 submarines and about 8 frigates and venezuala has 2 submarines and I think 3 or so frigates.

scotty says on Mar 4, 2008, 12:15:

kalder thanks for the stats.

you guys thanks for the videos to, if you have access to more vidios and maps that would be great if you posted them

Get Rhythm, when you got the blues. Johnny Cash

billyb says on Mar 4, 2008, 12:45:

Scotty, if you use Kalder's LTs figures, Colombia has mor than double the active service personnel as venezuela.

DodgerDogs says on Mar 4, 2008, 12:52:

Todays 12:00 pm news

Uribe Denounces Chavez

Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter.Martin Luther King:

huskie says on Mar 4, 2008, 12:53:

If those facts are accurate, then lets go to war and wipe them off the face of the earth, or blow them off, with the help of the USAF!
Some one was wondering about Chavez not sending troops to Guajira:

I think the reason he is not sending troops through to Guajira, is because those people, that mafia focused area, is very pro Chavez.
Cheers

"Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds-"

El Polo says on Mar 4, 2008, 13:03:

how many advocado seeds does ecuador have??? ecuador who???

Looking at the figures above Ecuador by itself would be just a nuissance.

robi666 says on Mar 4, 2008, 13:05:

Mafia in the Guajira pro Chavez? Are you joking true?
Pro Chavez? Those motherfuckers in their Burbujas would burn the ass of a communist as they spot him.

"I am a citizen of the most beautiful nation on earth. A nation whose laws are harsh yet simple, a nation that never cheats, which is immense and without borders, where life is lived in the present."

DodgerDogs says on Mar 4, 2008, 13:10:

According to this report the Italian Mafia is pro AUC in Colombia.
www.mapinc.org/drugnews/v07/n1496/a03.html?181

Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter.Martin Luther King:

robi666 says on Mar 4, 2008, 13:11:

Of course it is.

"I am a citizen of the most beautiful nation on earth. A nation whose laws are harsh yet simple, a nation that never cheats, which is immense and without borders, where life is lived in the present."

DodgerDogs says on Mar 4, 2008, 13:12:

Pannunzi, married his son Alessandro into a notorious family from Colombia's Medellin cartel as a way to cement the bonds

Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter.Martin Luther King:

robi666 says on Mar 4, 2008, 13:14:

To not talk about Salvatore...

And in Colombia mafia is just a way to characterize urban AUC groups.

"I am a citizen of the most beautiful nation on earth. A nation whose laws are harsh yet simple, a nation that never cheats, which is immense and without borders, where life is lived in the present."

DodgerDogs says on Mar 4, 2008, 13:15:

Those video poker machines launder many Cocaine dollars, and the Mafia import 80 %
of them to Colombia.

Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter.Martin Luther King:

LDW says on Mar 4, 2008, 13:16:

None of us can really predict how a war would unfold between Colombia and Venezuela. It's called the fog of war. I don't think war will come.

Nevertheless, I would offer the following thoughts.

(1) A stealth bomber attack on Venezuela's air bases would neutralize any advantage Venezuela may have in the air. A cruise missile attack would accomplish the same thing. This presupposes that Venezuela has trained personnel who can use their advanced aircraft, and that if Venezuela does have such trained people, that the US would act.

(2) Would Chavez receive popular support in Venezuela? I would say that as long as Colombia does not attack Venezuelan territory, Chavez would not receive that support.

(3) If push really came to shove, Venezuela's over dependence on oil revenue could be exploited.

(4) My sense is that the Colombian people would support Uribe more than Venezuelans would support Chavez. I am acquainted with an officer in the Colombian reserves (a wealthy man) who has seen combat. He claims that most of the population would rally behind Uribe, and that even wealthier people would step forward and be prepared to take personal risks.

(5) Most Colombians are aware that their armed forces are not without their faults, and have done regrettable things. But it seems quite apparent that they regard FARC as the greater evil.

Bottom line:

I don't think Colombia will initiate hostilities against Venezuela. Uribe is too politically astute for that. I don't think Chavez will initiate hostilities either. As much of a buffoon as he is, he must surely be aware that he is the more vulnerable, and would most likely lose power within his own country as a result. It is that lust for power within his own country that will, in the end, govern his actions.

webmanco says on Mar 4, 2008, 13:18:

I like to be optimistic, but in case of war Colombia wouldnot had it easy, even with USA intervention. Colombia has the expertise of an internal war for over 40 years, that is at the same time a con in the war, hopefully the illegal groups,"guerrillas" would not be voltearepas and join the invaders.

Now you might take into consideration Nicaragua who always is wanting a piece of Colombian´s Ass I mean land. And it might be getting some already :-)

Now on Rocinante points, that is something to ponder about, where does the alliance in a war ends when oil interests arise.??

But, I'm going to start making some assumptions here.... Which means I might actually end up making an ass out of myself ..........Thu 04 17, 2008 11:34 am

robi666 says on Mar 4, 2008, 13:19:

Chavez did not move his soldiers to Guajira because he knows that he cannot fuck with those motherfuckers.

"I am a citizen of the most beautiful nation on earth. A nation whose laws are harsh yet simple, a nation that never cheats, which is immense and without borders, where life is lived in the present."

El Polo says on Mar 4, 2008, 13:24:

you took the words out of my mouth Robi!!!

DodgerDogs says on Mar 4, 2008, 13:32:

Digg it del.icio.us AIM
A look at militaries in 3 Andean nations
The Associated Press
A look at the military strength of U.S.-backed Colombia compared to Ecuador and Venezuela.

Colombia has been battling left-wing insurgents for more than four decades and enjoys close U.S. logistical and intelligence support. Venezuela's military lacks combat experience but its air force has superior technology. Ecuador fought a monthlong border war with Peru in 1995.

COLOMBIA (includes army, navy, air force)

Regular troops: 254,300

Reservists: 61,900

National Police: 136,000 (many combat-trained and equipped).

Hardware: 115 combat-capable aircraft, including 22 ground-attack fighters, among them Mirages and Kfirs. Four surface combat ships

Defense budget in 2007: $5.1 billion

ECUADOR (includes army, navy, air force)

Regular troops: 57,100

Reservists: 118,000.

Hardware: 57 combat-capable aircraft including 31 fighters, among them Mirages and Kfirs. Eight surface combat ships.

Defense budget in 2007: $918 million

VENEZUELA (includes army, navy, air force, national huard):

Regular troops: 115,000

Reservists: 280,000 (estimated, fighting capability unknown)

Hardware: 94 combat-capable aircraft including 68 fighter jets including Sukhois, F-16s and Mirages. Recent military purchases include 53 helicopters, two dozen SU-30 Sukhoi fighter jets and 100,000 Kalashnikov assault rifles. Six surface combat ships.

Defense budget in 2007: $2.56 billion

Source: International Institute for Strategic Studies, AP

Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter.Martin Luther King:

huskie says on Mar 4, 2008, 13:38:

LDW, maybe you are right, but Uribes' cup is full now, eventhough, I am against any war, I would applaud him if he does decide to go to war and finish once and for all, oh for all the atrocities FARC and others have done to damage no only the image of Colombia but ruined the lives of so many. He has tried to mediate with this people ever since he started his Presidency, he has had a lot of opposition, including the majority of Colombians who are now realizing what the whole truth is about, all those people are now rallying behind him when it might just be a little too late. Can anybody comment?
Cheers

"Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds-"

tejasmarcos says on Mar 4, 2008, 13:40:

either way, it looks to be an interesting 2008 in the andean nation.....

god is in your head

PurpleFrog says on Mar 4, 2008, 14:46:

This was taken a few weeks ago in San Andres. When I visit Colombia now, as oppossed to one year ago, I do see a difference in some of the Colombian population on their sentiments towards George Bush. Not a political statement, just an observation.

Thank you.....Goodnite Now!

ColombianoGringo says on Mar 4, 2008, 14:55:

Huskie,

I have sometimes been critical of Uribe for various reasons although I generally support him and feel he has been good for Colombia. Whatever reservations I've had and continue to have about him are not related to the way he has handled the internal conflict. I think he was right to go after reyes and completely support his relatively unrepentant attitude towards Ecuador and Venezuela. While I am conscious of the man's flaws, he has my support and that of most Colombians.

huskie says on Mar 4, 2008, 15:03:

Good for you, Thanks.

I have always defended him, because he has been the only brilliant President Colombia has had for a very long time. He is smart and always has had a vision for Colombia, a true leader with very specific goals for his country. No bullshit politics!
So keep supporting him
Cheers

"Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds-"

ColombianoGringo says on Mar 4, 2008, 15:11:

Oye, de pura curiosidad, como fue que fuiste a dar a Albania?

LDW says on Mar 4, 2008, 15:16:

Huskie:

I was only expressing my judgment on the likelihood of war between Colombia and Venezuela. I do not think the militaries of each country will come to blows, for the reasons I have stated, plus any number of other reasons that other participants in this forum have expressed.

In the event of war, whether or not my reserve officer acquaintance is right I cannot say. I would have to concede that he is in a better position to judge than I am.

FARC is a separate issue. I am sure that Uribe would delight in any opportunity to fuck them up, especially if it will piss off Chavez. It would be good politics to rub Chavez's nose in all of this. I would bet that Uribe wants to taunt him.

huskie says on Mar 4, 2008, 15:26:

Mi esposo esta dirigiendo un Proyecto muy grande para reformar el sistema de Salud Publica
en Albania.
Saludos

LDW: Yes I know what you mean, but the other countries might just want to follow Chavez scheme. I dunno
Cheers

"Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds-"

tejasmarcos says on Mar 4, 2008, 15:30:

now, where's the obama boat?

god is in your head

LDW says on Mar 4, 2008, 15:30:

Well Huskie:

I feel sorry for your spouse. Albania is mostly muslim. More often than not, trying to bring muslims into the modern world is rather like trying to teach a chimpanzee to fly a 747.

huskie says on Mar 4, 2008, 15:53:

That is no problem at all, 60% of the population here is muslim, but not the religious kind, and mostly the muslims here just have roots and migration from Turkey, they do practice the religion, pray in mosques and so forth, but is a country which do not have the taboos and believes other countries have. I would just call them " mini-muslims". The problem he has is dealing with the Govermment which is one of the most corrupted in the Balkans, and of course, the falling of communism has made it even worse ( corruption) all the aid money goes in its majority to the government instead of the people who really need the help.
People here are well educated, well read and prepared, but there are no jobs and people are trying to go elsewhere to find better opportunities. I really like the country and its people, too bad that at times it seems no one respect the laws and they do much whatever they please, and to each his own, as they say, not to much community involvement.
Cheers

"Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds-"

tejasmarcos says on Mar 4, 2008, 16:03:

what do you do there huskie?

god is in your head

huskie says on Mar 4, 2008, 16:12:

I do lots of things, travel around, walk a lot, take care of my dogs, do grocery shopping, read, play tennis, go to restaurants, explore, socialize, fool around PBH, reserach different things in the internet, learn everyday, cook for my husband. I am enjoying life, after working for 30 + years. I am retired now, not because I am that old, but because I did not want to work anymore due to health reasons. oh and I am trying to learn Albanian but I don't think I am accomplishing much, very difficult languaje.
Cheers

"Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds-"

LDW says on Mar 4, 2008, 16:16:

yes Huskie:

I realize that. That is why I qualified my comment with the phrase "more often than not". Turkey has secularized, and the UAE is an island of freedom surrounded by an intolerant theocracy.

Albania was communist for a long time, and in whatever other aspects communism has given rise to failed states, they have at least improved literacy where they have had control. Also, Turkey, thanks to Ataturk, has secularized more than any other Muslim population, and I have to suppose that Albanians being surrounded by non Muslims has also influenced their behavior to some degree.

But, having said what I have said, I would take Colombia over Albania. I don't think it's any accident that there are no jobs in Albania, in spite of being surrounded by wealthy Europeans. I wouldn't invest my money there either.

robi666 says on Mar 4, 2008, 16:20:

...

"I am a citizen of the most beautiful nation on earth. A nation whose laws are harsh yet simple, a nation that never cheats, which is immense and without borders, where life is lived in the present."

huskie says on Mar 4, 2008, 16:30:

You are right, I agree, not to invest here at all, and we would not choose to live here forever either, there are other places like Croatia, Montenegro, Greece, Italy, Spain and others where you could safely invest, but the prices for housing, for example, have gone way up in the last 5- to 10 years. Our hope is to go to Colombia, but we are not sure about investing there, we will just have to wait and see what happens in the next year, when my husband finally retires.
Cheers

"Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds-"

tejasmarcos says on Mar 4, 2008, 16:31:

suerte huskie.

god is in your head

LDW says on Mar 4, 2008, 16:32:

Well robi..........

Suit yourself.

In either case, I would rather use the boat to go fishing.

robi666 says on Mar 4, 2008, 16:36:

You're right, stupid joke. Deleted.

"I am a citizen of the most beautiful nation on earth. A nation whose laws are harsh yet simple, a nation that never cheats, which is immense and without borders, where life is lived in the present."

cali373 says on Mar 4, 2008, 19:22:

rocinante, that is what worry´s me as well. I will be writing to congressmen-women soon. It is a lose, lose situation for All three countries.

The only winners which always seems to be the case, even with the iraq war are the U.S. Arms traffickers, as well as the Russian and israeli arms dealers.

Smile if you are a thinker!

goin_south says on Mar 4, 2008, 19:27:

without any intervention at all... I'd still bet on Colombia to KICK ASS.
(but then, what do I no?)
How's that for 'technical', robi?

why can't the freakin Chung King Chinese just LEAVE THE FREAKN DOLLY LLAMA and Tibet ... ALONE!

la campiña says on Mar 4, 2008, 20:08:

get over to the pound shop and buy a tin hat, ( and a VERY large bottle of you know who) hahe

goin_south says on Mar 4, 2008, 22:13:

I feel...someone beatin'.......en mi cabeza

why can't the freakin Chung King Chinese just LEAVE THE FREAKN DOLLY LLAMA and Tibet ... ALONE!

la campiña says on Mar 4, 2008, 22:15:

haha its that old song ron ron a ron away

kat1 (Moderator) says on Mar 5, 2008, 06:49:

Congreso advierte la inferioridad militar de Colombia frente a Venezuela

http://www.caracol.com.co/noticias/558736.asp

uhmmmm

webmanco says on Mar 5, 2008, 11:14:

Here is the audio report with Cesar Gaviria and the arms Venezuela has bough and keeps buying.

for those learning spanish the woman mentions a kind of helicopters Venezuela is buying, the ones that worries more Colombia.

https://secure.logmein.com/f?MeHsId2Pu0z94BJ.ohTu06qhTnR3REvLP2mvIt.hG...

But, I'm going to start making some assumptions here.... Which means I might actually end up making an ass out of myself ..........Thu 04 17, 2008 11:34 am

diabloblas says on Mar 5, 2008, 13:12:

have any of you armchair warriors ever been in a firefight?...i think you're all a bunch of blowhards...probably shit in your pants.

tomtom33 says on Mar 5, 2008, 15:03:

Never saw a firefight, but I was 11B in the Army during Viet Nam. I do think that people who have never been in a firefight can make good decisions.

billyb says on Mar 5, 2008, 15:21:

Diablo, are you a dumbf%ck? Does somebody have to have been in a firefight to discuss the security issues in your country?

buggy says on Mar 5, 2008, 15:35:

"This was taken a few weeks ago in San Andres. When I visit Colombia now, as oppossed to one year ago, I do see a difference in some of the Colombian population on their sentiments towards George Bush. Not a political statement, just an observation."

Jajaja, there is nobody in the Mr Bush boat and the other is crowded.

"Artículo 20 de la Constitución Política. Se garantiza a toda persona la libertad de expresar y difundir su pensamiento y opiniones,...No habrá censura."