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USA in terrible downturn, Colombia somehoe escapes or is next?

Things are getting worse by the day in the US, how does these people talk about how things are so good in Colombia and in Medellin. Or maybe they have not seen the effect yet.
2008 will be devastating to the US, market down another 300 points today.

My friend , in NYC, says there are blocks, yes entire blocks on Broadway that are empty, used to be stores. Never seen so bad in NYC in 20 years he says.

By bamapits on Feb 29, 2008, 12:05 in Friendly Talkzone.

wendell13 says on Feb 29, 2008, 12:09:

It is coming here to Colombia, too. The world's largest economy can't go in the dumper without affecting Colombia

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sloopskipper says on Feb 29, 2008, 12:15:

About the only things holding up in my portfolio are South Korean, Canadian, and Latin American (with little Colombian exposure) mutual funds, Copa, and some oil-drilling stuff.

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RAAAY says on Feb 29, 2008, 12:16:

FDI forcast to double this year................there is an argument that US companies need to invest in emerging markets precisely because of an expected downturn in the US.....

Colombia's exports to the US is made up primarily of commodities...........a downturn there will not effect these in a big way................

The world's largest economy can go in the dumper without affecting Colombia ( greatly )

.

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

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Simon says on Feb 29, 2008, 12:17:

That's why Colombia needs to look towards China and India.

HERE'S SIMON!!!!

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jonas says on Feb 29, 2008, 12:19:

good bye USA.You´ve had your century. You abused it. It´s payback time!

What I have, I do not want to lose, but Where I am I do not want to stay, but those I love, I do not want to leave, but those I know I no longer want to see, but Where I die, I do not want to go;I want to stay where I have never been

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RAAAY says on Feb 29, 2008, 12:19:

Yes Simon...........exactly what Brazil did.................concentrating their export drive on Korea.....Russia....India....China and Europe.............

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

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scotty says on Feb 29, 2008, 12:19:

hey simon if USA tanks dont you think that will also effect China and India since we are their biggest customer?

Get Rhythm, when you got the blues. Johnny Cash

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jonas says on Feb 29, 2008, 12:21:

if the US believes that the entire world has to go down with them, then maybe it´s time to think of a new system.

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scotty says on Feb 29, 2008, 12:22:

i just got off the phone with a old friend who is a area rep for a national window blinds company, he represents his companies window blinds and he is leader of several dealers about 100.
he told me business has just stopped, he has had 50 of his dealers quit and his phone has stopped ringing. he is very worried.

Get Rhythm, when you got the blues. Johnny Cash

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RAAAY says on Feb 29, 2008, 12:24:

China and India have huge growing domestic markets.............and loads of funds in the piggy-bank to maintain themselve quite well until their US customers get back on their feet.......

.

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

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scotty says on Feb 29, 2008, 12:36:

jonas, i dont think the US thinks the world has to go down with them i think its just a matter of fact as we have all become a one world economy, everyone depends on the other, its the way it is.

what other sytem do you recommend?

Get Rhythm, when you got the blues. Johnny Cash

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nine inch nails says on Feb 29, 2008, 12:40:

"My friend , in NYC, says there are blocks, yes entire blocks on Broadway that are empty,"

In MSN article today they say that people in US are spending the same amounts just that more of it goes to increasingly expensive gas and now food and a lot less on frivolous or nice to have items.

Don't think it is limited to just the U.S.

get down, get down. are you afraid of the boogie monster?

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wendell13 says on Feb 29, 2008, 12:40:

Let me repeat some stats.....the US is the number one trading partner with Colombia. About 35% of Colombia's exports head to the US...Venezuela is second with about 11%.

Two of their most important exports are oil and coffee. These parabolic moves in these commodities will not be sustained. If you don't think so, just look at some long term history charts of any commodity. What goes up, WILL come down

If anyone doesn't think that Colombia will be affected by a US downturn, they are smoking lefty Luckies.

These stats are from the CIA World Factbook..est.2007

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poco says on Feb 29, 2008, 12:45:

Quote: good bye USA.You´ve had your century. You abused it. It´s payback time!

You must be talking about those who are a little younger. Personally I don't much care what happens one way or another. Probably I'll be better off. Interest rates going up is always a good thing. Recession,, what does that mean,, nothing to me, I don't work now.

The drop today,, needs to go down another 500 points, then it will be about the same as a month ago. This drop was expected by more than half the street. So,, the question might be how low will it go,,financial problems, etc. Could drop below 11,000 but I doubt it. These fluctuations are trading opportunities.

I'd say the highest percentage of problems in the near future will be in Latin America.

"Violence is the first refuge of the incompetent" - Isaac Asimov

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RAAAY says on Feb 29, 2008, 12:47:

Wendell.............it's commodities............

And I have'nt seen where anyone say that Colombia won't be effected by a US slowdown.....
Perhaps it's you who is smoking the lefty Luckies......

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

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jonas says on Feb 29, 2008, 12:48:

scotty: something new, it hasn´t been invented yet but I am sure it will happen.

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Waterdawg says on Feb 29, 2008, 12:49:

Wendell13 : Some Folks on the board have such a hard on for the States ( including some delusional Gringos ) that they Dream about the US. going down the tubes.. The Flower Industry is already taking on the chin form Asia and Africa , now they loose some more buyers from the States ? ? : and the list goes on ...

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wendell13 says on Feb 29, 2008, 12:52:

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sloopskipper says on Feb 29, 2008, 12:59:

It seems a bit egocentric to say that I am retired and don't care if a recession/depression comes. I am retired 8 years and have a pretty damn secure income, but I think of the millions who would suffer, and I sure care.

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RAAAY says on Feb 29, 2008, 13:01:

Water............You say........." and the list goes on "

The point is, the list does'nt really go on............the flower industry is going to take a hit.......but, even a 50% dip in flower exports to the US does'nt represent a national catastrophe for Colombia ..............it will be devestating on a personal level for owners and employees in the industry.........but a marginal effect on the national economy........

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

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jonas says on Feb 29, 2008, 13:05:

and what percentage of the Colombian economy is related to the flower industry? If you lose a buyer from the US maybe you will just find a new one from Russia?

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jonas says on Feb 29, 2008, 13:11:

if you had read Paul Kennedy´s book "The Rise and Fall of Great Powers"...you would have known what was to come. Only the fool is surprised by what is happening now. The better educated asks himself why it took so long.

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tomtom33 says on Feb 29, 2008, 13:13:

Is Colombia going to compete with China in Russia?

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bamapits says on Feb 29, 2008, 13:20:

I just find hard to believe the Colombian can escape, I like to hear what the gringoinbogta say.
In Medellin how do the expats sell so many condos and make money all the time they claim, and rent to people for $75night, maybe that will change.

In Dubai, everything is beuatiful, never seen so much money, so so much money it means nothing. Ha maybe the Colobian girls will all now go to Dubai. But they seem to prefer the Swedish , Russian, and American princess blondes here, also some pretty Asian women here, one girl told me she make 200,000 USD one year in Dubai.

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jonas says on Feb 29, 2008, 13:23:

tom: according to the Houston Chronicle this is already happening.
"Amid hard times, Colombian growers are exporting more flowers to Russia, Japan and other countries."
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/biz/5527261.html

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gringoloid says on Feb 29, 2008, 13:26:

jonas....you are exactly right on..............and only a bigger fool would fail to understand that this is only the beginning of the bad news........things are going to get a whole lot worse.

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jonas says on Feb 29, 2008, 13:27:

gringoloid: and can I make your day again? AU $ 972,5

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muchacho_escondido says on Feb 29, 2008, 13:30:

"US in terrible downturn"??? Yeah, right the sky is falling, OMG!

Come on, people. US has always had recessions. In 1970's and 1980's inflation and unemployement were in double digits. Right now, the statistics are nowhere near. And yet, today no one even remembers about those past recessions-- the country got over them and just moved on. Not much changed-- the US is still number one economy and one of the most attractive places to live, in the whole world.

I do think the American economy has structural problems and there will be (well, there is) a downturn. But so what? There are 5% unemployed now and there maybe 7, 8 or even 10% next year. Well, that will be traumatic but that's a part of the natural cycle and definitely not "the end of America as we know it". I don't see the American economy collapsing so much that it will be even remotely comparable to what today is called Third World. I've seen quite a bit of Colombia, for instance, and I can't see the US becoming like it (in terms of wealth and development) soon.

I just love the media that every bloody day reports a .1% rise in unemployement or a 5% drop in housing prices as the end of the world. Newsflash: Trumblerblumbler Institute (what's that?) reported a .289% drop in consumer so-and-so index (threatening sigh with a suggestion of upcoming Great Depression-2). It is as if someone wants to create panic by saying vague scary words over, and over again.

This happened before, this is happening again but things will most likely turn around. I have little respect for this recession sensationalism. Lines near the US embassy in Bogota will be just as long as today, in 5, 10 or 20 years. Relax everyone...

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Simon says on Feb 29, 2008, 13:36:

Hey Muchacho_Escondido, there's no need to put down Colombia like that, you got it, 'huevon'? If the place is so downtrodden and beneath you, then just don't go back, ever! You certainly won't be missed!

HERE'S SIMON!!!!

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jonas says on Feb 29, 2008, 13:38:

Muchacho: Relax... ? When in history has the US owed as much money (fiat) as they do today? Come on, get real! I recommend reading some economic literature and not just the headlines you are talking about.

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wendell13 says on Feb 29, 2008, 13:39:

Hey ...i thought they were new rules here...No name calling

Chillout

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muchacho_escondido says on Feb 29, 2008, 13:45:

Dear Simon,

"If the place is so downtrodden and beneath you, then just don't go back, ever"

LOL, I have gone back and I never tried or will try to live there.

However, I never put Colombia down or said that it's beneath me. Economically, it is much less developed than the West-- beyond any comparison. That's simply a fact. Just like that the sky is blue.

Nevertheless, I have nothing bad to say about Colombian people-- if anything, I like their attitude to life and expectations of it more than those of Americans in many respects. Colombians have less junk but junk is not the purpose of life.

Peace!

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gringoloid says on Feb 29, 2008, 13:46:

muchacho.....what happens if the petro dollars become based on euros instead of dollars?

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wendell13 says on Feb 29, 2008, 13:49:

Gold bugs will be crushed...take a look at the some charts from the early 80's

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muchacho_escondido says on Feb 29, 2008, 13:53:

Gringoloid,

I assume the gas will cost 4.50 instead of 3 per gallon, based on today's numbers. It's 6-7 in some European countries and they manage. Things will get leaner and meaner but I don't think "terrible" would be an appropriate word to describe what will happen.

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jonas says on Feb 29, 2008, 13:53:

and who was it who said a few months ago that in 2008 the dollar will recupe?
AU 973,9 ;-)

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wendell13 says on Feb 29, 2008, 13:55:

When taxi drivers and PBHers are recommending gold...you know the top is near

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gringoloid says on Feb 29, 2008, 13:55:

wendell, I'll be out of it by that time. I started in April of 2005 and I've more than doubled my investment. Very soon I'm going to sell half and get my initial investment back.

I'm no longer buying gold anyway.........I tried to buy some silver today and my bank is holding my payment for 3 days.............very annoying.

there is no way I can lose money now except if the price of gold and silver goes down to $0.00

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wendell13 says on Feb 29, 2008, 13:57:

I really hope you make some money..take some off of the table soon. Don't be a pig. You know the old saying.

Good trading

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jonas says on Feb 29, 2008, 13:58:

Damn them taxi drivers!

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RAAAY says on Feb 29, 2008, 14:01:

Gringoloid..................

...........................................NEWSFLASH........BREAKING NEWS.......NEWS ALERT

I've just seen this on FOX News.................People are giving Gold away on street corners for free in NY....................

It's on FOX......fair and brainwashed.................so it must be true

.

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

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sloopskipper says on Feb 29, 2008, 14:02:

jaja, MountainTop. Ya think? More than I need anyway, jeje.

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gringoloid says on Feb 29, 2008, 14:04:

i'm telling you guys........fuggeddabout gold..........silver usually catches up at the end of the gold run...................silver is the place to be right now.

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muchacho_escondido says on Feb 29, 2008, 14:07:

"Muchacho: Relax... ? When in history has the US owed as much money (fiat) as they do today? Come on, get real! I recommend reading some economic literature and not just the headlines you are talking about."

Economy is not my strongest point. However, even I see problems with it. So yes, there is a downturn and it is likely to get worse.

I simply objected to the OP's catastrophic assessment of the situation. $5 dollar gas or 10% unemployment are probably likely. That's not a catastrophy, however and things tend to settle down at some point, even if at a lower point.

I don't know if the foreign debt you're talking about can cause a real collapse (like in Argentina in 2001-2003). But speaking of Argentina-- even that country recovered somewhat, at least according to poverty and unemployement numbers.

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poco says on Feb 29, 2008, 14:40:

Quote: When taxi drivers and PBHers are recommending gold...you know the top is near

I haven't heard from the shoe shine boy, another indicator.

Probably more than half the Colombians do not have much of an investment choice. Houses, Land, gold. That's about it. Save pesos? Ha,, not when they've seen them go from 8 to the dollar to 1900 in 40 years. Thirty years or so ago I think a days wages was one peso.

However, I have started selling gold. I remembered the $900 per ounce price in 1980 or there abouts. How do I remember because I watched it double in a year or so and thought,,, when it hits $1000 I'm selling,, Ha, Ha. I also remember buying $20 eagles for about $50 in 1968 or 69. Makes an impressive "flipping" coin, even back then.

Anyway, gold was 3 or 4 hundred for quite some time,, OK,, it doubled in 10 years,, OH, my gosh,, thats,, thats,, ready less than 10% on the average. Warren Buffet did a lot better with his companies.

PS: Warren Buffet will be "live" on the financial channel (CNBC) Monday for 3 hours, humm, probably three million dollars worth of time. Anyway, 6 am Eastern time. Plus, his yearly Berkshire letter came out today. 2008 does not look all that good for insurance companes.

"Violence is the first refuge of the incompetent" - Isaac Asimov

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Simon says on Feb 29, 2008, 15:31:

"hey simon if USA tanks dont you think that will also effect China and India since we are their biggest customer?"

Hey Scotty,

Guess what? Just like you guys always look after your own interests first, so will we.

HERE'S SIMON!!!!

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tejasmarcos says on Feb 29, 2008, 16:12:

i'll take a lefty lucky...........

trying to walk a straight line on sour mash and cheap wine...

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expatriate says on Feb 29, 2008, 17:57:

Mr. Muchacho_Escondido, you don't make much sense, or else you believe everything anyone tells you. You have to take the official U.S. government figures and multiply by 4 or 5. Unemployment must be at 20-25 % and rising fast, right now.

When I worked in Mt. View, California, until 2004, there were fully mile long streets of industrial buildings which were full in 1980, and are now completely deserted. I can only imagine that it is far worse now in 2008.

The U.S. reports an inflation rate of about 2%. 13%-20% is closer to reality.

The United States of Torture is being systematically destroyed, in every way possible. If the present administration was honest, they would simply state that the U.S. no longer honors any treaties, including the Geneva Convention.

You can experience a taste of torture by trying to fly in or out of the U.S. You will be treated like a Nazi war criminal, by people who essentially are the same as Nazi war criminals. When they want to go through your bags, ask for a warrant, which is perfectly within your constitutional right. You'll be either locked up, or at the very least, thrown out of the airport and miss your flight.

The USD is quickly on its way down to ZERO, just like all unbacked currencies have done for thousands of years.

Invest in Berkshire Hathaway Inc., and double your money in five years, about the same as the inflation rate, minus the taxes you pay on profits. Or, you can invest in silver and gold during dips in the price of the metal. Pay cash and sell for cash, and you are tax free. The bull run on precious metals is merely in the beginning stages. When the precious metals have peaked, in the next few years, go back to Berkshire Hathaway.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

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sloopskipper says on Feb 29, 2008, 18:20:

expatriate says on Friday February 29th, 2008 17:57:
"Normally I don't pick on someone in particular, but you seem to either have gone through the public school system, barely learning how to read, or you spend your free time watching FOX and CNN news, and actually believing what they say".

That was certainly hateful, and uncalled for.

And "You have to take the official U.S. government figures and multiply by 4 or 5. Unemployment must be at 20-25 % and rising fast, right now."

Where did you pull that from? I have an idea.

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Waterdawg says on Feb 29, 2008, 18:33:

Ray , you ever here of leather ( you know my biz ) you ever here of the textile industry ? It's starting to hurt .. The dollar to peso is starting to hurt.. Just out of curiosity , how many Colombian workers do you employ ??

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RAAAY says on Feb 29, 2008, 19:04:

Water........of course..........but the discussion was along the lines of, the effect the weak dollar will have on the overall Colombian economy, vis a vis exports.....................

Like I said...........and I used the flower business as an example, individual business owners and employees will be effected..................but Colombia as a nation really exports very little apart from commodities which historically are not effected in a slowdown...........in fact, their price goes up.

Also, a little shock in the system might be good for Colombian exporters, who primarilly export to the US..........look for other markets........broaden your horizans.

What countries do you export to other than the US. You were at a fair in Chicago recently.......how many other countries have you particapated in fairs....

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

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tejasmarcos says on Feb 29, 2008, 19:11:

hello.............medo.

trying to walk a straight line on sour mash and cheap wine...

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BillBigD says on Feb 29, 2008, 19:30:

And "You have to take the official U.S. government figures and multiply by 4 or 5. Unemployment must be at 20-25 % and rising fast, right now." No clue
AS dollar falls price of gold, oil, silver, goes up not down fellas

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tejasmarcos says on Feb 29, 2008, 19:50:

i'm in the dream fullfilment biz here. i worked in mortgage banking for 7 years, residential and commercial real estate for 4 years. i saw the foreclosures coming back in 2004 when i was following origination news monthly. the arm originations were peaking becuz the banks were paying brokers more to originate them. at 45-50% backend qualification ratios based on two incomes (start rate), it was a nightmare waiting to happen. however, i had no idea how ingrained into the capital markets those grenades were - my god...........

my mistake was not buying gold in 2004-2005. i would have doubled my $$. the damn sovereign society was screaming to the rooftops that gold was gonna go through the roof as well. they are still predicting $2000 an ounce.

trying to walk a straight line on sour mash and cheap wine...

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rocinante says on Feb 29, 2008, 19:53:

I started to read this thread and hit "good bye USA.You´ve had your century. You abused it. It´s payback time!" jonas

Jonas you mean to tell me you are in your 20s? I thought you were old enough to remember the last recession in the US - they happen every 6-10 years. Going back the US had one in 02, 92, 87, 82, 72...

Things get tight but no one dies or anything like that. This is not a "century" thing, just an economic cycle. Everybody just calm down.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

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tejasmarcos says on Feb 29, 2008, 19:58:

i never remember property values ever rising this fast or falling this fast before with exception to the s&l crisis in the 80's.

trying to walk a straight line on sour mash and cheap wine...

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pedro says on Feb 29, 2008, 20:37:

Physical gold is actually a pretty conservative play.

Now if you buy the gold miners, you get more leverage on the gold price. As the gold price increases, the company's operating margin increases by a higher factor.

If you are in a gold miner that's drilling out very prospective exploration ground and you're further leveraged in call options, you can make much bigger gains.

eg. Here is a current holding of mine -- July last year to present it's quadrupled:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=au:igr...

que nota!

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wendell13 says on Feb 29, 2008, 21:09:

For someone to say that commodity prices do not go down in a recession is to put it charitably, very uniformed

Take a look at a long term commodity index chart.

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RAAAY says on Feb 29, 2008, 21:15:

.

Perhaps you should take your own advice.............." Take a look at a long term commodity index chart."

In fact, rising oil prices have been blamed for contributing to past recessions in the first place.

.

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

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wendell13 says on Feb 29, 2008, 21:20:

I give up....commodity prices do go down during recessions. You disagree with that?

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christobeldawg says on Feb 29, 2008, 21:28:

I better take a few short the market positions huh? doomsdayers always play it that way, sometimes they win, every few decades or so. Is this one of those decades?

admittedly, arriving can feel great too

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christobeldawg says on Feb 29, 2008, 21:50:

do what?

admittedly, arriving can feel great too

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muchacho_escondido says on Feb 29, 2008, 23:52:

Oops, looks like I made a wave here. I don't usually do that, since I'm escondido :) But what the heck, it's Friday night, so I'll play an Internet warrior. For a while :)

Expatriate:

20-25% unemployment? I would like to see your sources. The fact that you saw empty buildings in Mountain View isn't evidence. It's funny you bring it up, though-- I'm not unfamiliar with that place and it is pretty darn rich. Manufacturing may be gone but Google (and others like it) has come. It employs a lot of people and pays very well.

I have no comments about Nazis or torture since that has nothing to do with the subject. In fact, here's an interesting read: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin's_law

Cheers!

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muchacho_escondido says on Mar 1, 2008, 00:26:

But the truth of the matter is that no one knows how bad this US economic problem is going to be. That includes yours truly.Sometimes really bad economic times do come-- there's no denying it. Right now it may be one of these times.Or maybe not. Forecasting economy is notoriously difficult. At any given moment of time, there are economists that say all things imaginable. Some of them will inevitably turn out to be right but most of them will be wrong. Everyone heard about a broken clock showing the right time twice a day.In my experience, economic forecasting (and you'll have to pardon my French here) is BS. That is a fair assessment of what the suits from Wall Street say about the future.

What always irritates me is this OMG, the sky is falling attitude. At any point of time, there are people that have it and try to spread it. It is contagious. During the Cold War, the Russians were going to kill us all, then the Muslims wanted to conquer the whole world and now another Great Depression is coming. And let's not forget large subgroups of Christians who have been waiting for the end of the world for the last 2,000 years. Doom-saying is in human nature, has always been, will always be. I think I know the psychological reason for it-- in a perverse way, it makes life easier as that way there are fewer choices and fewer responsibilities (since everything is going to hell anyhow).

It's emotions more than anything, though. However, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. I have seen none whatsoever in this thread nor anywhere else. And let's keep in mind that extraordinary events are much less likely than ordinary events (that is self-evident). This is why I'm inclined to BELIEVE (note, I'm not saying that I KNOW) that probably the US is having another recession, which all countries have regularly and, like someone said, don't kill anyone.

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scotty says on Mar 1, 2008, 01:24:

you know many of these topics such as this one are basically peoples opinions or something they read on the internet or someone else told them.
the fact is no one really knows where this is going, how long it will be there and when it will bounce back.
there are always the doom sayers, i have been hearing it for years, no let me correct, for decades.
people have written books about the end coming.
However the fact is that the US and indeed the world has gone though many recessions and depressions and goverment changes and all kinds of dramatic moves, but there always seems to be a rebound.
my mother tells me stroies of the depression and how people stood in lines for gas and food and everything, yet here we are bounced back. remember we had a recession in the 70's but yet here we are back again. we had slow downs in early 80's and early 90's, gas goes up and down, the stock matket goes up and down, we have had housing problems before.
this is a mess but we will pull out of it, the question is when and will you be ready when we do pull out of it, because when we do come out of it there will be opportunities for the wise to take advantage of.

Get Rhythm, when you got the blues. Johnny Cash

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rocinante says on Mar 1, 2008, 04:41:

"It is coming here to Colombia, too. The world's largest economy can't go in the dumper without affecting Colombia" Wendell

You got two charts to compare? You guys just post stuff and you have absolutely no clue - I hate to be harsh.

The tail does not wag the dog. If you don't think this is true follow Colombia's economy in relation to the US economy.

Did you guys all drink your coffee today? Why? The US is in a recession. They drinking coffee in other countries? For the US guys how is this recession and the last ones changing your life? One less vacation? You still have jobs, your house, your car...

I don't know why everyone thinks that people in the US stop drinking coffee when there is a US recession thus sending Colombia into a recession.

I think a few retired guys or some on vacation are feeling a few extra bucks on the exchange over at the Colombian ATM. You want the economic and other important situations in both countries to change in such a way that the FXrate changes and favors you and benefits you and only you at the ATM.

Or maybe you don't know that things need to change in order to get at that rate. You think the FX rates are numbers that don't indicate anything in particular.

This change does not help Colombia. If things change economically, politically etc... in such a way so that the FX rate is affected to move to 3000, you will all have hardons and Colombia will be in the toilet.

But you care about Colombia as much as you care about economics 101.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

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Albatross says on Mar 1, 2008, 04:48:

"there is an argument that US companies need to invest in emerging markets precisely because of an expected downturn in the US" - Raaay

I bought that line 6-7 years ago and invested 60-70% of my stocks into the Templeton Developing Markets Fund (TEDMX), a fund that is invested primarily in Asia, Latin America and Russia and had been doing quite well. Anyway, from Thanksgiving to the end of January, I lost over $20,000... so much for "developing" or "emerging" markets. So I dumped all my International stocks and put the money back into the U.S.

I'm sure there are plenty who are happy to see the U.S. economy going down the toilet... but it won't be just ours. Ironically, one of the biggest reasons we're in this mess, is because our asshole "leaders" have been so quick to "give away the store" by allowing China a persistant trade advantage and by allowing jobs and technology to go overseas... thereby benefitting multi-national corporations and foreign interests at the expense of America.

The more time passes, the more respect I have for the Romanian people, who had the good sense and cajones to string up their "traitor-in-chief" at the end of the cold war.

“Democracy - a pathetic belief in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance." - H.L. Mencken

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Albatross says on Mar 1, 2008, 05:20:

Expatriate... Hunter S. Thompson, I presume.

“Democracy - a pathetic belief in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance." - H.L. Mencken

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gringoloid says on Mar 1, 2008, 05:35:

hey muchacho.......thanks for that link on godwins law..........i can use it on other blogs i'm on.

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Waterdawg says on Mar 1, 2008, 06:08:

Kinda looks like a double edge sword in the States .. From what I read and hear the Fed. has got its hands full with two problems and can only fight one at a time .. Inflation on one hand and a recession on the other .. Like all others , Opinion !

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rocinante says on Mar 1, 2008, 06:34:

Obviously recession comes before inflation and cutting rates helps wall street and overall economic confidence, resulting in jobs and high level spending (think large contracts and orders).

It has to start somewhere and most folks want jobs, job securiity, raises, stability and growth as opposed to hold steady on the price of a dozen eggs.

This is the way the Fed dresses it up and it makes sense, although an ounce of prevention is what the doctor really ordered. It's just part of the cycle - no more no less. This methodology always drags the US out of a recession.

Just realize that the last thing the Fed is worried about is the friggen Colombian Peso.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

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wendell13 says on Mar 1, 2008, 06:51:

You want charts?.....just look at Goldman Sachs commodity index chart. Commodity prices come down during US recessions. The charts is a composite of world commodity prices which include coffee and oil.

Don't you think it is logical that when a commodity producer receives less money for their commodity that it affects them? This is pretty basic stuff. Google it. I don't think that this is a difficult concept to grasp.

This time is different though, right? A new paradigm.

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gringoloid says on Mar 1, 2008, 07:15:

news you can use....

Wheat prices at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange leaped $4.75 to a record high of $24 a
bushel. In July, prices were about $6.10.

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goin_south says on Mar 1, 2008, 07:17:

to the OP: I've always been one to believe, if we (I) simply ... tend to my own economy, then I really don't have to worry about that of a country or the rest of the world.
It's the most/least I can do.
thanx.

'what does it mean, when one of you (colombians) tell another: YOU WERE NOT/ARE NOT. 'COLOMBIAN ENOUGH'?? jejeje..a mixture, I think, of stupidity mixed with a false sense of arrogance.. How 'colombian' do you have to be? to be 'colombian enough

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wendell13 says on Mar 1, 2008, 07:22:

Did you see that a trader for a commodity firm lost 142 million dollars in wheat this week? I saw that $4.75 leap in one day. Simply incredible

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rocinante says on Mar 1, 2008, 07:29:

"You want charts?.....just look at Goldman Sachs commodity index chart. Commodity prices come down during US recessions."

Wendell - I'm sorry you misunderstood - my post was to your comment:

"It is coming here to Colombia, too. The world's largest economy can't go in the dumper without affecting Colombia" Wendell

I actually quoted this in my post to which you are responding at 4:41 - please read it again and don't leave out the most important part: your unfounded comment which is the point of my post.

Here I'll spell it out. Show me the GDP numbers, namely the export charts for Colombia during the last 3 US recessions going back oh 20 years to 1988.

You were talking about Colombia and so was I. Now you are talking about comodities in general. Fine but I'm not part oif that conversation and neither was my post to which you are replying.

Does it make sense now? Let me know when you have the data on the ridiculous statement "The world's largest economy can't go in the dumper without affecting Colombia".

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

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RAAAY says on Mar 1, 2008, 07:56:

And Wendell...................

Raay says......." but Colombia as a nation really exports very little apart from commodities which historically are not effected in a slowdown...........in fact, their price goes up."

This is what I said.........let me put the same thing another way..............The commodities which Colombia exports are historically not affected by a US slowdown. In fact, the price of commodities that Colombia exports goes up.............

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

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wendell13 says on Mar 1, 2008, 08:04:

You win....if the world's largest economy and by far the largest trading partner of Colombia go in the dumper that will have no effect on Colombia. I agree with you totally. Absolutely no effect. That sounds perfectly logical to me.

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RAAAY says on Mar 1, 2008, 08:15:

I did'nt say that.............maybe Roc suggested it...................what I said is...." The world's largest economy can go in the dumper without affecting Colombia ( greatly )...."

And my thought, is that Colombia will be just fine in a US slowdown, because Colombia 's biggest exports to the US will continue.

Yes, flowers and leather and textiles will be effected to a degree.........but these industries actually make up a relatively small amount of Colombia's total export dollars to the US.

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

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gringoloid says on Mar 1, 2008, 08:19:

Raay.....let me say this with all due respects.........could this commodity discussion be a small piece of the pie?

In one small case here..........ME.............I'm unable to sell my home in california. The banks are now dumping their foreclosures on the market and drastically under pricing me, so i've decided to rent this place out, maybe for years.

A big chunk of money is no longer destined for colombia. (a big chunk to me anyway)

this has nothing to do with commodities...............it's plain old capital investment that is not going to happen.

what if there are thousands of others like me, for one reason or another that won't be investing in colombia, as a result of the recession in the usa?

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RAAAY says on Mar 1, 2008, 08:38:

Gringoloid..............this is another area that a US slowdown will effect............but it will not cripple the country..........in relative terms, to the overall Colombian economy, these monies are small. FDI is forcast to double here it his year...it will be greater than 2007 and 2006 combined........now, if I could only remember where I read that.

The origional post was that the US economy is in " a terrible downturn "..... and will Colombia be next.........?

All I said was..........Colombia will not be effected ( greatly )..........primarilly because it is a domestic based economy.......and it's exports to the US are made up primarilly of commodities..........

Colombia's major exports are petroleum, coffee, coal, nickel, ..................

The US is the world's shopper...........a depression there will have a huge ripple effect throughout the world...............but there are countries who will not be effected as much. Colombia is one of those countries...........it's just not a huge export economy of stuff other than commodities....................which is also one of the reasons why this country will experience good growth numbers over the coming year.............there is loads of room to improve..................

.

.

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

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cali373 says on Mar 1, 2008, 09:03:

Depression: shutuuuuup. small recession definately.

Someone's friend is exaggerating heavily! NYC is not that bad and it was definitely worse during Carter and Reagan. The shit has not really hit the fan in the Northeast. Other parts of the country are worse. The shitty value of the US Dollar makes our products more desirable, which is helping us.

While the U.S. is the worlds shopper the difference this time is that Corporations have the money to spend, and alot of it. But right now it is a better investment to spend on cheaper products produced in other countries instead of the U.S. And that is what they will continue to do. That is the reality of a globalized economy, so other nations will not see the a similar slwodown as of yet and not as significant as the slowdown in the U.S.

By the way for those geniuses out there, the value of the dollar has to do with the U.S. debt and amount of dollars in circulation and exports. This is controlled by the Federal reserve, Congress and the presidency as whole, not just the person sitting in the white house.

The reason Colombia seems like a good economy right now is because of the globalized economy, which I give some credit to Uribe but it was César Gaviria that opened up the economy. Colombia still has an infaltion issue though, the reason why the colombian peso seems strong is because it is being compared to the sagging Dollar.

Smile if you are a thinker!

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cali373 says on Mar 1, 2008, 09:13:

I have to agee with Simon and Raaay but with Bush pulling on Uribes strings since he has that money purse Uribe needs for the War, who knows maybe after Bush is gone Colombia will make a true effort increasing trade with democratic nations of the East and the E.U. Not the half ass efforts happening now.

Smile if you are a thinker!

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RAAAY says on Mar 1, 2008, 09:16:

It's not just the weak dollar that has the rate where it is now....................from 3000 to 1840 also reflects a strengthening Colombian economy and prospects for the future...........

As for NYC........I found that bit about Broadway and empty blocks a bit of a surprise......I have a good friend that owns three bar/restaurants off Broadway.............he says that the city is flying.......his business is flying..............visitors from all over the world taking advantage of the weak dollar.......................

But........who knows.................Broadway stretches from lower Manhattan up through the Bronx......................there's bound to be some part of it suffering...

.

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

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droble77 says on Mar 1, 2008, 09:23:

Interesting thread. Maybe this is not politically correct but given the argument over commodities, I wonder how a recession would affect the price of Colombia's "other biggest commodity" . . .
I've always suspected a significant chunk of Colombia's recent construction boom was due to the underground economy, remember cocaine use has grown greatly in Europe in recent years, and all those euros have to be laundered somehow. . .

Also, I am not sure about commodity price trends in past recessions, but it seems over the past couple of years, there is a lot of upward pressure building on commodity prices and that even a recession will not bring those prices much down.

Take food prices which is going up all over the world. Food is our energy of course, but it takes a LOT of fossil-fuel based energy to grow and distribute it. I do NOT think a recession in the U.S. will bring the price of oil down significantly, and if it does go down, ever-growing energy demand in Asia will push oil prices back up.

Coffee is another crop of course so I suspect there is at least some upward pressure to keep the price of coffee stable or up even in a recession. On the other hand, I believe coffee is more human-labor intensive than other types of crops, so I think there is also some protection from surges in the energy costs to balance things out.

So even if it's true that commodities usually go down in price during recessions (and quite frankly, I'm not sure because I don't have the data), things are a little different this time because I don't think we'll be seeing oil for less than $50 a barrel ever again. . . and the price of energy, of course, affects everything else.

It's tricky to analyze because there's so many interactions. Relatively high commodity prices in a recession may not necessarily be a good thing for certain exporters, it depends on the "elasticity" of demand. I think coffee is pretty elastic but I'm sure people will cut down on Starbucks and luxury coffee so Colombian exporters will have to adjust their marketing and product mix. . .

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cali373 says on Mar 1, 2008, 09:26:

Oh and the best system is the one created by God, not by Man. Man does have the ability to destroy very well.

poco: Your attitude is exactly whats wrong with the U.S.

Smile if you are a thinker!

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gringoloid says on Mar 1, 2008, 09:43:

..............poco, gold doubled in value since mid-2005..............not in ten years as you stated.

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gringoloid says on Mar 1, 2008, 10:01:

i have nothing against the Buffet..............poco you say his companies did better than precious metals.........................Buffet bought huge amounts of silver when it was $4 an ounce, enough to create a silver etf..........................

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gringoloid says on Mar 1, 2008, 10:29:

silver is the kind of a thing that sleeps for years..............but when it wakes up, it goes like a modefoquer in a very short time......then settles back to sleep again

............................................it's also a tug of war between the longs and the shorts.................when the price goes up, the shorts get squeezed...........

this is a very interesting chart ............take a look at where we are at the far right where it says 'what happens next', ..........this is real interesting. take a look at that divergence.........is this what i've been waiting for?

don't buy anything based on this...................this is highly speculative. but in my case, i've been backing the truck up to the dock and loading up for some time.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

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gringoloid says on Mar 1, 2008, 10:34:

one thing i forgot ..........this is technical analysis and not fundamental analysis, which is equally important.............well, everyone is saying that the dollar is going to hell, so the fundamental analysis can go along with it.

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rocinante says on Mar 1, 2008, 10:59:

Quantative analysis.

"You win....if the world's largest economy and by far the largest trading partner of Colombia go in the dumper that will have no effect on Colombia. I agree with you totally. Absolutely no effect. That sounds perfectly logical to me." -Wendell

What exactly gets traded do ya think?

Why should things change now in regards to Colombian Economy and it's relation to a US recession? Just because you guess it should be that way? Your statement looks good on the surface...

Ray for the Al Bundy of the Medellín furniture world you sure know your shit.

The US drinks coffee during a recession.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

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wendell13 says on Mar 1, 2008, 11:20:

I see your posts are written in English but can you read English....I AGREE with you. A US recession will not lower the Colombian GDP by one peso.

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gringoloid says on Mar 1, 2008, 11:48:

alright, lets move on with this................there were 42,000 cruise ship visitors to colombia in 2003........over 200,000 in 2007.

after ecuador and venezuela, the usa is next on the list of visitors.

if there is a recession, (or a major depression), will there be more, less, or same amount of visitors to colombia?

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rocinante says on Mar 1, 2008, 11:58:

"You win....if the world's largest economy and by far the largest trading partner of Colombia go in the dumper that will have no effect on Colombia. I agree with you totally. Absolutely no effect. That sounds perfectly logical to me."

"I see your posts are written in English but can you read English....I AGREE with you. A US recession will not lower the Colombian GDP by one peso." Wendell

Ignorance and sasrcasm - all part of English. This is a broad language my friend. Welcome.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

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gringoloid says on Mar 1, 2008, 12:00:

we have to get into the other part later.............the long forming worldwide fiat money tsumani, where greenspan created the largest credit bubble the world has ever seen.

the IMF and the World Bank have already cleaned out the third world, so guess who is next.

I notice Buffet just sold his stock in PetroChina that he bought 2003 for a 600% profit. Does he know something about china that we don't? He always seems to know where the top is.

the parallels between now and 1929 are amazing........they were buying stock on margin and accumulating massive debt............just like between 2000-2006 mortgage debt soared from $4.8 trillion to $9.5 trillion.

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gringoloid says on Mar 1, 2008, 12:06:

we need to make another chart to see where we all stand:

1. Full blown, worldwide depression 20% unemployment in the usa, $150 a barrell oil, euro at $2, credit bubble bursts into some kind of financial crisis.

2. Serious world recession, rebounding in late 2010.

3. Recession in the USA, causing a Colombian recession.

4. Recession in the USA, not affecting Colombia greatly; i.e., not much worse than we are now in Colombia, but maybe a little worse in the usa with a nasty bite of inflation, unemployment, and will work itself out in 2009.

5. Mild recession in the usa, not much worse than what is going on now in the usa........just a problem with the housing crisis that will work itself out .

6. What's a recession?

So please pick a number, 1 is the worst case scenario that i'm choosing;
and 5 would be the mildest recession.

come on, everybody put there two cents in and pick a number..............

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rocinante says on Mar 1, 2008, 12:11:

"alright, lets move on with this................there were 42,000 cruise ship visitors to colombia in 2003........over 200,000 in 2007.

after ecuador and venezuela, the usa is next on the list of visitors.

if there is a recession, (or a major depression), will there be more, less, or same amount of visitors to colombia?"

Gringoloid - another scratching the surface but not knowing what's full behind it.

I'll play your questions game that you usually hit us with in the 9/11 and JFK posts:

What cruiselines carrying US passengers go to Colombia? What is the average cost of that cruise? Does the price of that cruise change because of the recession? Are these tourists retired fixed income types not greatly affected by the recession? How many Americans actually get out of the boat and shop in Cartagena? Of the travelers who have gone in the past how many tshirts and trinkets are they buying from vendors who don't pay taxes nor contribute to the GDP? Of the big ticket items sold to cruise ship passengers in Cartagena how much of the Colombian GDP is this representative of?

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

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rocinante says on Mar 1, 2008, 12:16:

4/5 or 4.5 as they are pretty much the same unless you want to expand the definition of both.

For the record there has only been one depression. One. 75 years ago.

Everytime there is a US recession some yahoo grabs figures and predicts another great depression.

I will not hold my breath.

China will be affected by the US and is kinda in a bubble anyway. Warren Buffet is no idiot taking a profit in these uncertain times.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

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wendell13 says on Mar 1, 2008, 13:04:

Why would China be affected by the US? Could it be that China is a large trading partner with the US? China will be affected by a US slowdown but Colombia won't?

You sure like calling people yahoos and ignorant. How about a few less ad hominen attacks and a few more logical conclusions

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tomtom33 says on Mar 1, 2008, 13:07:

Every country is affected by every other country to a greater or lesser degree. Even us ignorant yahoos know that.

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RAAAY says on Mar 1, 2008, 13:10:

Gringoloid.............." if there is a recession, (or a major depression), will there be more, less, or same amount of visitors to colombia? "

There is actually an argument for suggesting that visitors to Colombia will increase as a result of problems in the US.

A travel agent friend of mine in West Palm explained to me a few weeks ago ............that.........because of the weak dollar and Europe being very very pricy now................US travellers are incresingly looking at South America as an allternative.........

One travel agent.....one story........however the logic does make some sense............The US has a population of 300 million............a huge number of these people will not be affected one whit by a slowdown/resession..............a lot of people will still take vacations............in fact............a lot will look south as a place to make a retirement home...........

The sky will not fall.................

.Viva Colombia

.

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

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Aaron21 says on Mar 1, 2008, 13:10:

Did you go to Rancho Jubilee Rubito? I miss that place...

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wendell13 says on Mar 1, 2008, 13:15:

That is a valid logical argument Ray

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Aaron21 says on Mar 1, 2008, 13:17:

Very nice... brings back good memories, and I have not been gone that long... : )

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RAAAY says on Mar 1, 2008, 13:18:

Wendell...............I hope it's not me you're bitchin at....................s**t......I hate getting bitched at..................I'm not totally disputing your point.........I'm just suggesting that Colombia will not be affected hugely/greatly by problems in the US.

As I said before.............my notion about this is because Colombia is not hugely dependent on the US for exports other than on the commodities which Colombia sells in the States.........and the demand for these will not change MUCH in any resession there.........

I'm not suggesting that Colombia will not be affected at all..............

My home country.....Ireland........will take a bath if there is a period of sustained problems in the US...........A full 90% of Ireland's exports are from Irish based American companies......

.

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

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robi666 says on Mar 1, 2008, 13:27:

Ray, i don't understand how can you say that Colombia will not be affected at all by problems in US...

"I am a citizen of the most beautiful nation on earth. A nation whose laws are harsh yet simple, a nation that never cheats, which is immense and without borders, where life is lived in the present."

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RAAAY says on Mar 1, 2008, 13:36:

F**kin Eye-Talians can't read........or write........or drink............That piss-ass little country of yours, shaped like a smelly boot, will suffer though.............Good thing I get my Italian made sofas in China........

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

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robi666 says on Mar 1, 2008, 13:38:

Still, how can you say that Colombia is independent on the US export?

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RAAAY says on Mar 1, 2008, 13:47:

lol.............f**k off..........

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

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RAAAY says on Mar 1, 2008, 13:49:

.

.

" Today, by far coffee is the major crop grown and its price to the world market has affected Colombia’s economic health. Colombia is also rich in minerals which include petroleum, natural gas, coal, iron ore, nickel, gold, copper, emeralds and platinum. Coal is the third largest export in terms of revenue. The Colombian country is one of the largest coal exporters in the world. Coal exports are expected to increase in the next five to six years. "

..... http://richistan.wordpress.com/2007/12/05/colombia-draft-itzel/

.

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

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rocinante says on Mar 1, 2008, 13:52:

You can spell it out Ray but when the dust settles and the smoke clears Wendell doesn't understand the interrelated trade economines of Colombia and the US and now China and the US.

"Why would China be affected by the US? Could it be that China is a large trading partner with the US? China will be affected by a US slowdown but Colombia won't - You sure like calling people yahoos and ignorant. How about a few less ad hominen attacks and a few more logical conclusions?" Wendell

Ad hominem? I've backed up everything I've posted and have made no frivilous comments. I'm still waiting for you to comapre Colombia's GDP/Exports when the US is in a recession. If you can't bring anything to the conversation why not have a nice disposition and ask questions and learn something. I do it all the time. How do you think I got to be so unIgnorant?

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

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goin_south says on Mar 1, 2008, 13:54:

6. Mild recession, in recovery.... ...Late (very late) ...2.0.0.8. through 2009

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droble77 says on Mar 1, 2008, 13:56:

I think Colombia could be hurt a bit by a U.S. recession but not that much. Colombia's economic destiny is ultimately affected more by its INTERNAL problems, and at least for now, it looks okay on that front.

I don't think the U.S. is headed for 3rd world status but it's certainly possible that we are starting to enter into a "multipolar" world.

Dubya's policies may have accelerated that process but I don't think that alone is the cause.

By the way, a "multipolar" world is not necessarily a bad thing. You can make a viable argument that such a world may actually be more conducive to peace and prosperity, because the competing powers will balance each other out, keep each other in check.

In any case, look at what U.S. hegemony is doing in the Arab world, i.e., not much. Thank's to Dubya's policy choices, more people in that part of the world hate us now than before 9-11. Another example is that right now in Pakistan, a lot of people are pissed off because the U.S. is still seen as backing Musharraf even though his party was overwhelmingly rejected in the recent elections.

I know it hardly seems possible but just imagine if Uribe's popularity nosedived and the U.S. still backed him. Imagine what Colombians would think of that. . .

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rocinante says on Mar 1, 2008, 13:56:

Fukin Ray you bastard - while I'm wasting my time with the other crap...

Robbi: Coffee. The US drink Coffee - tons of it. Colombia's biggest trading partner's exports (the US) is 60% coffee and a bunch of bananas. Cofee is recession proof - ljust like Peroni, aspirin and smokes.

The US doesn't fold when it's in a recession. People give up certain things like buying blinds but they still buy non cyclicals.

China exports a fiar amount of venetian blinds to the US.

Using coffee and venetian blinds one can see why one country would be affected and the other one not really.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

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