Uribe's popularity: Enthusiasm or resignation?

A recent poll (Nov 05) conducted by INDEPAZ and Universidad de los Andes (home interviews, included small towns) sheds some light on the mystery of Uribe's popularity:

http://www.conexion-colombia.com/conexioncolombia/content/page.jsp?ID=6970

While replicating prior results of high popularity (59% would re-elect him), when asked about specific areas (poverty, corruption, human rights, etc.), Uribe's administration is harshly evaluated with 2.57-3.22 scores on a 1-5 scale. Without proper scaling, it's difficult to interpret these numbers (I haven't been able to get access to the report, maybe there is some explanation there), but these numbers hardly show any enthusiasm for current policies.

As some analysts suggests, maybe Uribe is regarded not as a esteemed leader, but as the least worst choice for the next presidential elections. His favorability is generally high (70-80%) but so is the favorability of many of his political opponents (e.g. Garzón's). This suggests to me that as alternative candidates get some media exposure, Uribe's reelection bid MAY be in trouble.

Another noteworthy result confirms prior reports that most Colombians are less concerned with the internal conflict than with the economy (mainly poverty and unemployment), where Uribe, despite the praises from the Latin Business Chronicle, gets his worst grades (2.57). Maybe mininum-wage workers in Southern Bogotá know something that the suits in Miami are missing (wouldn't be the first time).

Contenders for the presidency appear to be well aware of this, and in their proposals for their first 100 days (reported in Cambio) they generally relegate security issues to the last place in the list of things to do. Strategies against poverty and unemployement are listed first. Again, Uribe could be badly hurt if the presidential debate is framed in terms of these priorities.

In this context, it shouldn't be a surprise that Uribe's first moves against an electoral opponent are the kind of cheap shots that Rafael Pardo had to sustain. The main media outlet generally agreed that that move backfired on Uribe. I wonder if it really did. I'm afraid this is going to be a bloody presidential campaign.

By Sr Tertius on Feb 2, 2006, 03:05 in Politics & the war.

juancegomez says on Feb 2, 2006, 12:33:

It was an interesting poll, definitely I'd say both are involved, depending on who you ask.

But I disagree about the Rafael Pardo thing certainly being part of what you could call a campaign of bloody cheap shots, since as you mentioned it backfired big time and had little effect on Pardo's poll numbers, other than slightly pushing him forward.

If you think about it, even Horacio Serpa or Carlos Gaviria would be far more vulnerable to such accusations than Pardo and we are not seeing that yet.

Honestly, I can't think of any scenario where such accusations could possibly have been taken halfway seriously by too many people in the government in Pardo's case, beyond the known fact that he and Commissioner Restrepo (the most likely source of the accusation, even if Uribe decided to trust him) hate each others' guts.