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Uribe being driven a lot closer to Chávez

Posted on Thu, Oct. 04, 2007

Uribe being driven a lot closer to Chávez

By ANDRES OPPENHEIMER

What was unthinkable until recently is beginning to be considered a likely scenario in U.S. foreign policy circles -- that Colombia's U.S.-backed President Alvaro Uribe will move increasingly closer to Venezuela's anti-American strongman Hugo Chávez.
This is the thinking: Following last Sunday's big victory by Ecuador's President Rafael Correa in a referendum to change the Constitution and create a Chávez-inspired socialist republic, Colombia will be left sandwiched between two leftist governments calling for a continent-wide ``revolution.''

For Colombia, it will be either accommodation or economic and political strangulation: Colombia depends on Venezuela for much of its agricultural exports and needs its neighbor's help to prevent Colombian guerrillas from seeking refuge and launching attacks from across the border.

Complicating matters further for Colombia, the Democratic-controlled U.S. Congress is unlikely to ratify the U.S.-Colombia free trade deal signed by Uribe and President Bush in 2006. Democrats, who rely heavily on anti-free-trade U.S. labor unions, say they won't vote for the deal because of Colombia's high numbers of murdered union activists.

In addition, Colombia has accepted Chávez's mediation in negotiations with FARC Marxist guerrillas for the liberation of hundreds of hostages, including three U.S. defense contractors and former Colombian presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt. If Chávez succeeds in the mediation effort, his image within Colombia will get a significant boost and he may have a major influence in Colombia's 2010 elections.

CUBAN GOODWILL

Finally, Colombia is relying on the goodwill of Cuba, Chávez's closest ally, to mediate negotiations with ELN rebels. Last month, Uribe sent the first lady, Lina Moreno de Uribe, on a ''working visit'' to Cuba to get acquainted with the island's health and women's programs.

Roger Noriega, a former Bush administration head of the State Department's office in charge of Latin American affairs, told me in an interview that Uribe ``is a very pragmatic guy. But if he is thrown to the wolves, he will have no choice but to brace himself by seeking accommodation with his neighbors.''

Manuel Rocha, a former senior U.S. State Department official who worked for several decades in Latin America, goes further. Citing the U.S. Congress' likely rejection of the free trade deal and recent cutbacks in U.S. anti-drug aid to Colombia, Rocha noted that while Bush will leave office in 14 months Uribe finishes his term in 2010. Uribe will no longer be able to count on unconditional U.S. support until he leaves office, Rocha said.

''From an early willingness to take on Chávez, we will now have a Uribe who will increasingly look for opportunities to get along with Chávez,'' Rocha said. ``At the end of the day, before Uribe leaves office, he will be closer to Caracas than to Washington.''

Myles Frechette, a former U.S. ambassador to Colombia, cautioned that there will be limits to the Uribe-Chávez friendship. There are age-old animosities between the two countries, including an unresolved territorial dispute, and Uribe and Chávez have very different ideologies and personalities. ''Uribe won't become a stooge of Chávez, but he will be closer to him than before,'' said Frechette.

COLOMBIAN RESPONSE

What does the Colombian government say? Colombian Foreign Minister Fernando Araújo told me in a telephone interview from Bogotá that ``we are not contemplating distancing ourselves from Washington under any circumstances, because we consider our relationship with the United States as a strategic issue. Regarding the ties with our neighbors, we have been building relations of respect within diversity, which will keep improving.''

My opinion: The outcome of Sunday's referendum in Ecuador will have a big impact on Colombia. Correa -- one of the most arrogant leaders I have met -- will rapidly turn Ecuador into a Venezuelan-styled elected dictatorship and will become a new thorn in Colombia's side.

Correa has already said he will denounce Colombia before the International Court of Justice in The Hague over Colombia's fumigation of coca fields on the border. That is likely to lead, sooner or later, to yet another Chávez mediation of a major Colombian political problem.

Summing up, I don't know whether we will see a Uribe-Chávez love affair, but everything points to a diminishing U.S. presence in Colombia and a growing influence of Chávez in that country.

http://www.miamiherald.com/418/story/259672.html#recent_comm">http://www.miamiherald.com/418/story/259672.html#recent_comm

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© 2007 Miami Herald Media Company. All Rights Reserved.
http://www.miamiherald.com

By Simon on Oct 4, 2007, 21:08 in Politics & the war.

juancegomez says on Oct 4, 2007, 21:12:

Already posted before.

Simon says on Oct 4, 2007, 21:18:

Funny, since this forum doesn't move that much I only looked at the past four or five topics and didn't bother to look that far down.

HERE'S SIMON!!!!

Simon says on Oct 4, 2007, 21:22:

``At the end of the day, before Uribe leaves office, he will be closer to Caracas than to Washington.''

Um duh...that's the way it's supposed to be, Colombia and Venezuela are sister republics!

"There are age-old animosities between the two countries, including an unresolved territorial dispute, and Uribe and Chávez have very different ideologies and personalities."

Yes, but the things we have in common greatly outweigh those that separate us. Qué gringos tan vivos, tratando de separarnos para debilitarnos!

HERE'S SIMON!!!!

scotty says on Oct 4, 2007, 21:38:

I'll believe that when i see it.

Get Rhythm, when you got the blues. Johnny Cash

eywed says on Oct 4, 2007, 21:40:

Ay Hombe!!!!!

christobeldawg says on Oct 4, 2007, 21:45:

capitalism versus socialism. strange bedfellas. I don't think so.

admittedly, arriving can feel great too

Simon says on Oct 4, 2007, 21:47:

Simon Bolivar must be smiling in heaven at that image.

HERE'S SIMON!!!!

Desideria (Moderator) says on Oct 4, 2007, 21:52:

"capitalism versus socialism. strange bedfellas. I don't think so"

Been bedfellas for a long time here in Sweden. Who gets to sleep on top varies.Perhaps easier within the own borders.

Cheers,
Desi

"I have opinions of my own, strong opinions, but I don't always agree with them."-President George W. Bush

pedro says on Oct 4, 2007, 21:58:

So now it's not one but two fascist republics bordering Colombia.

No doubt Simon is getting a hard on at the prospect of Colombia becoming a fascist state too!

que nota!

Man Tequila says on Oct 4, 2007, 21:59:

I know who sleeps on the wet spot.

Aunque no me creas/ si me lo propongo/ lograre olvidarte/ porque a fin de cuentas/ no soy tan cobarde./ Y termino todo una de estas tardes/ no sera dificil buscar algún sitio donde refugiarme/ donde nunca mas vuelvas a encontrarme. (Polo Montañez)

christobeldawg says on Oct 4, 2007, 22:05:

Desi, in the US that is the primary political difference among people. Capitalism versus socialism. or free markets, hands off government versus central government control.
Most straddle the middle ground. will be very interesting to see how this duality plays out in Colombia, what with Venezuela on one side, and the US on the other.

admittedly, arriving can feel great too

Desideria (Moderator) says on Oct 4, 2007, 22:31:

I think it's an interesting scenario too. Colombia has historically stood close to USA and gringos have always been well received in Colombia but I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing if Colombia takes a little distance from USA and learns to work a little better better with its neighbours.

Cheers,
Desi

"I have opinions of my own, strong opinions, but I don't always agree with them."-President George W. Bush

christobeldawg says on Oct 4, 2007, 22:39:

agreed, in general, but I worry a bit about that Colombian neighbor that\who is so radically againt the US

admittedly, arriving can feel great too

toneloc24 says on Oct 4, 2007, 23:53:

I think Chavez is more radically against GWB than the USA, and I believe that he's previously said that. It's the same distinction that is being made around the world on GWB's watch. What GWB stands for, does not reflect the wishes of the USA population as a whole, as polling numbers have long reflected. Chavez just isn't having any part of Bush's plan and being very vocal about it.

Desi - I think it would be a GREAT thing if Colombia and other SA nations would look to work better with their neighbors than always relying on US assistance. I think it would be a more transparent and genuine friendship that would serve both countries better over the long-term.

Is there any free trade agreements between Colombia, Venezuela, Brasil and/or Ecuador? After the full court press that Uribe's been doing on Washington, I surely would hope so.

"Don't tase me, bro!!!!"

scotty says on Oct 5, 2007, 00:46:

they arent going to kiss in that first photo are they?

Get Rhythm, when you got the blues. Johnny Cash

scotty says on Oct 5, 2007, 00:51:

I remember once my folks told me to never invest in SA countries, you never know where there goverments are going or what they are doing, socialist one day, next day capitalist, then communist, not very stable or dependable.
I hope Colombia wont go the way of Chavez, that would be a waste of a perfectly good country.

Get Rhythm, when you got the blues. Johnny Cash

juancegomez says on Oct 5, 2007, 07:43:

If you ask me...even if Uribe does get closer to Chavez, he'll still be pretty pragmatic about it yet quite ideologically distant.

The U.S. would have to do something much worse (from the government's perspective, mainly) than not signing the FTA and reducing/reshuffling aid amounts before U.S. influence could really be considered *seriously* diminished.

Not to mention that, in the still unlikely event that someone from the left is elected in 2010, that doesn't mean Colombia will jump into the "anti-U.S./Chavez bandwagon" either. That said, one could still expect a diversification of our relations, which is indeed a good thing.

"Is there any free trade agreements between Colombia, Venezuela, Brasil and/or Ecuador? After the full court press that Uribe's been doing on Washington, I surely would hope so."

I believe there's something like it, as part of the Andean Community, keeping in mind that Venezuela chose to leave that body (though they're not yet fully linked to the Mercosur and Chavez has even talked of returning recently), but apparently still gets to keep those benefits for a while.

BAQ says on Oct 5, 2007, 09:20:

I jest got to weigh in on this one. LOGIC says the US would under no conditions force Colombia inot a position of swinging to the left with Chavez and that Washington would do whatever it takes to keep that from happening.

Now that is LOGIC, but who says Washington is logical. The Bush administration AND Congress have their heads so far up their own ass that anything is possible. In all my years on this earth, this is the FRIST time that my governement scares me, becaus our ENTIRE Govt is disfunctional. This is not a Democrat or Republican issue, its the entire Govt.

Semper Fidelis !

Desideria (Moderator) says on Oct 5, 2007, 10:24:

Waste of a good country? Perhaps the people in Colombia would not think like that if they elected a socialist government. And they are the ones whose opinion matters.

"I have opinions of my own, strong opinions, but I don't always agree with them."-President George W. Bush

Desideria (Moderator) says on Oct 5, 2007, 10:27:

Talking about trade agreements, I can understand a treaty between members of equal standing (politically, economically) would benefit Colombia, but not where Colombia is in obvious disadvantage. How much have the other LA countries who have made separate FTA with USA fared? Mexico? The DR?

"I have opinions of my own, strong opinions, but I don't always agree with them."-President George W. Bush

miamimike says on Oct 5, 2007, 11:58:

wAS POSTED YESTERDAY,,,

"Wait a minute. What did you just say? You're predicting $4-a-gallon gas? ... That's interesting. I hadn't heard that." -- Feb. 28, 2008 --George W. Bush, Washington, D.C.,

cali373 says on Oct 6, 2007, 14:55:

I see Fascism is slowly having a comeback, I mean even in the USA we see it with Bush and the dismantling of checks and balances.

Smile if you are a thinker!