03/19 - Peso/USD Close 1821.00

rocinante says on Mar 3, 2008, 15:59:

Despite the weekend shenanigans - the peso actually gains a pinch...

Monday 3/03 - Peso/USD

Close: 1838.9

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

ColombianoGringo says on Mar 3, 2008, 16:00:

P M !!!!

pedro says on Mar 3, 2008, 16:04:

Very surprised at that. I expected a stampede for the exits.

In fact, the peso hasn't softened at all.

que nota!

rocinante says on Mar 3, 2008, 16:06:

Yeah your buddy sees a support of 1800. I think he's on glue.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

gringoloid says on Mar 3, 2008, 18:29:

roci.................do you guys want to do a guess the peso event for say, june1 and january 1?

this would be a totally harmless event..............like picking lottery numbers.

let me know, and I'll post it has "Peso Sweepstakes".

this one is just all in fun.

rocinante says on Mar 3, 2008, 18:34:

This thread is just to report the daily rates. No reason to post anythintg here. We have enough economic threads.

Mr Loid - feel free to start another contest. But based on what I've read here lately people are just throwing out numbers based on "What goes up must come down" and other nonesense. I am in enough contests.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

rocinante says on Mar 4, 2008, 18:50:

Tue 03/04

I missed the official close today...

Right now in after hours (still open but no activity for the past almost 3 hours) the peso "closes" at:

1856.15

USD up from yesterday as border skirmish prompts uncertainty in future trades with Venezuela. I believe this hold/increase in USD will be short lived. I really hope so.

I've said this before - any support in the USD is a result of bad news for Colombia. The only winner is tourists looking for a good exchange.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

tomtom33 says on Mar 5, 2008, 01:31:

I generally buy your arguments, but the comment about the only winner is going a bit too far. The guy who grows flowers for export wins as well.

I do believe that what is best for Colombia is best for me, and I have taken personal measures to mitigate the falling dollar.

rocinante says on Mar 5, 2008, 05:11:

You are correct Tomtom. Sorry, I often exaggerate and say things like "Nobody goes to that restaurant anymore, it's too crowded!"

What I was really trying to say was that if there is a grave political situation or complete economic shambles or collapse of economic confidence in Colombia, then the dollar will strengthen to the chagrin of tourists. The flower exporters will benefit but it may not be worth it for them, or it may cause them other problems in light of the events that caused the currency swing.

I cannot not state this enough that the USD to COP is way, way over valued and the correction that is going on now (really a global correction) is not going to be reversed unless there are major problems in Colombia - which the tourists don't really give a shit about.

COP back to 1840 as of 8:08AM - I hope you all went to the ATM yesterday.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

rocinante says on Mar 5, 2008, 19:36:

Wed 3/05 - Peso/USD

Close: 1875.25

Dollar up Peso down 19 large from yesterday's 1856

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

rocinante says on Mar 6, 2008, 15:28:

Thu 3/06 - Peso/USD

Close: 1892.75

Dollar up nice again from yesterday's 1875.25

Going to watch the Nacional beat the poop out of those dweebs from Sportivo Luqueño - so no after hours report....

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

rocinante says on Mar 7, 2008, 15:57:

Fri 3/07 - Peso/USD

Close: 1886.0000

Peso probably not really gaining strength just yet - this may have been some profittaking from the quike buck artists. We'll see....

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

rocinante says on Mar 10, 2008, 14:44:

Mon 3/10 Peso/USD

Close: 1873.15

Was as high as 1850 midday. This indicates to me that we'll see 1835, a 5 year high, within a week.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

goin_south says on Mar 10, 2008, 17:43:

oh, yeah?
How's that venezuelan money doin against the dollar?

and, thank you.

rocinante says on Mar 11, 2008, 14:44:

When you move to Venezuela call me. Right now its 2.1473

Tue 3/11 Peso/USD

Close: 1864.40

"Gold prices rose, while the dollar edged up against most other major currencies" -
Tuesday March 11, 4:59 pm ET
By Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer

Except the peso which gained 9 and change

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

rocinante says on Mar 12, 2008, 21:36:

Wed 3/12 Peso/USD

Close: 1848.50

Peso up USD down 15.9

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

CatGirl says on Mar 12, 2008, 22:52:

Hi Roci - you OK???

Love and Time: the only two things that cannot be bought, but only spent

rocinante says on Mar 14, 2008, 06:45:

Yeah I'm OK - My Dogma peed on your Karma so he deserved it.

Thu 3/13 Peso/USD

Close: 1857.15

Peso Down/USD up 9

Uribe and Chavez met, shook hands and are working out the deal (TRADE of course) Dollar is down 22 and change right now... Let's see if the support for the past few days holds for the USD. I doubt it.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

CatGirl says on Mar 14, 2008, 06:58:

jajajaja

Love and Time: the only two things that cannot be bought, but only spent

rocinante says on Mar 16, 2008, 06:26:

Fri 3/14 Peso/USD

Close: 1849.60

Peso up/Dollar Down 7.55

=================================

Mon 3/10 week opened at 1873.15
Fri 3/14 week closed at 1849.60

Peso Gains USD drops 23.55 for the week

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

rocinante says on Mar 18, 2008, 04:28:

Mon 3/17 Peso/USD

Close: 1848.85

Peso up/Dollar Down 1.15

============================

US interest rates to get cut by at least a HALF today. I didn't think this was going to happen until June. Oh well. We probably may see the 1700s before April.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

ColombianoGringo says on Mar 18, 2008, 07:54:

Repito. PM!!! 1828.50

tejasmarcos says on Mar 18, 2008, 09:44:

this is gonna get ugly....

lookout ecuador!

my glass is getting shorter on whiskey, ice and water...

ColombianoGringo says on Mar 18, 2008, 09:46:

Good point. I wonder if Ecuador pays for all that Colombian electricity in peso or dollar rates.

rocinante says on Mar 18, 2008, 10:00:

Ecuador hedges against currencly fluctuations like anyone else with tremendouns exposure does by purchasing futures and/or buying currency.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

tejasmarcos says on Mar 18, 2008, 10:08:

are there any informational site/boards regarding ecuador?

my glass is getting shorter on whiskey, ice and water...

rocinante says on Mar 18, 2008, 13:23:

Their central bank practices?

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

robi666 says on Mar 18, 2008, 13:26:

It is good if a bunch of gringos can be diverted to Ecuador instead coming to Colombia. I really hope Ecuador will make its fiscal policies gringo friendly.
Colombia is going to pay a big bill for cleaning its international image.
You call it progress? You may be right, but still...

"I am a citizen of the most beautiful nation on earth. A nation whose laws are harsh yet simple, a nation that never cheats, which is immense and without borders, where life is lived in the present."

rocinante says on Mar 18, 2008, 14:13:

Tue 3/18 Peso/USD

Close: 1815.50

Peso up/Dollar Down 33.35

============================

I was wrong about hitting the 1700s by April - looks like next week might be more on target.

What is going to happen when Colombia raises rates by a half a point?

Is everyone ready for 1400 in November?

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

RAAAY says on Mar 18, 2008, 14:21:

Roc..........what is your source for the 1815.50 close...?
Thanks.

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

rocinante says on Mar 18, 2008, 14:26:

Ray: Bloomberg - I gave you the link 4 weeks ago. Remember we are an hour different now so the close is an hour earlier. There will most likely be some after hours on the COP trading internationally. I'll check it later tonight after the Nacional game....

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currencies/americas_currencies.html


Time column on far right is last trade- if it's a date that means the main market that trades it has closed.

Book mark it this time. OK?

Chau pues!

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

ColombianoGringo says on Mar 18, 2008, 14:32:

XE has supposedly live rates. They are currently showing 1,823.49 COP

http://www.xe.com/ucc/convert.cgi?template=crm1&Amount=1.00&From=USD&T...

rocinante says on Mar 18, 2008, 14:44:

Don't use them.

My friend Andrea has reported at the close:

"The peso advanced 1.9 percent to 1,815 per dollar from 1,850 yesterday, according to the Colombian foreign-exchange electronic transactions system, known as SET-FX. It touched 1,814.75, its highest since August 1999. Trading of the peso ended in Colombia before the Fed announced its rate decision. Last Updated: March 18, 2008 16:40 EDT"

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602096&sid=a5PzknF.TT0M&refer...

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

tejasmarcos says on Mar 18, 2008, 14:44:

and the stock market rallied 400 points today.

my glass is getting shorter on whiskey, ice and water...

rocinante says on Mar 18, 2008, 14:46:

Because of the rate cut and because Lehman and G'Sachs reported good stuff.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

ColombianoGringo says on Mar 18, 2008, 14:50:

Roci, Why not use them? I think that XE shows "after hours" rates as well so it's not really the closing price that Bloomberg is reporting.

Here is what they say about their rates.
------------------------------------------------------------

# 1Where do you get your currency rates?

We obtain our rates from a wide variety of sources. We use advanced proprietary systems to factor in available data from all sources and automatically detect errors in the individual feeds. This allows us to generate a highly reliable composite data feed that is much more timely and accurate than any of the individual feeds.

We strive to always include the latest available market data from live, real-time rate feeds containing data from foreign exchange markets all around the world. Because it's always daytime somewhere in the world, there is a good chance that a currency market somewhere is currently trading. Our sources are global, which means that data for a specific currency can be updated even when the markets of its home country are closed. Where a specific currency is not regularly traded, we use the most recent data available.

We are proud to incorporate data from Tenfore Systems as one of our preferred data sources.

We currently support every world currency of which we are aware. If you know of one we don't, please e-mail currency at xe.com.

#2 Are your "mid-market" currency rates buy rates or sell rates?

The mid-market rates shown in our information services are neither "buy" rates nor "sell" rates. Mid-market rates are derived from mid-point between the buy and sell rates of large-value transactions in the global currency markets.

Since "buy rates" and "sell rates" include overheads and profit margins that are set independently by each foreign exchange provider, they will vary depending on who you're talking to, and will always be different than the mid-market rate.

robi666 says on Mar 18, 2008, 14:52:

Whatever... the Euro is still around 2900... incredible how things changed so fast.

"I am a citizen of the most beautiful nation on earth. A nation whose laws are harsh yet simple, a nation that never cheats, which is immense and without borders, where life is lived in the present."

rocinante says on Mar 18, 2008, 14:56:

CG - Small after hours markets are fine and when there is major stuff afterhours Bloomberg will report it as well.

No harm no foul.

-BUT- The reason I say what I say (don't use them) is that when the smoke settles and the dust clears the 1815.5 close today is the official close on record when you see the charts or consult Colombia's central bank.

It's like looking at Dow futures before the open - they are a good indicator (they sure were today!) but they officially mean nothing.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

ColombianoGringo says on Mar 18, 2008, 15:05:

For credit/ATM transactions, do the banks use the closing price for the day the transaction was made?

rocinante says on Mar 18, 2008, 15:17:

The owners/banks of the ATM will determine how the exchange rates are calculated; not the bank that issued your ATM/Debit card. So with that known it depends on the ATM what rate you get. It's the job of the machine spitting out the cash to tell your bank how much it is spitting out. The bank spitting out the cash wants to have control over the FX rate.

Back in the day I was taking cash out daily, the same amount on three different cards(banks) ALL from the same Davivienda ATM - ALL in the same two minutes - the dollar amounts were the same for all three banks when I went home and checked the transactions on line.

I would guess the Colombian bank ATMs either use yesterday's close and win/lose on the spread, if any, or they get a real feed. I cannot substiantiate this.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

tejasmarcos says on Mar 18, 2008, 15:24:

so, the yield spread between the interest rates of the two countries is the primary driver of the continued peso ascent? i would assume currency traders are flooding into the COP, hence the continued drop in greenback against the COP?

and can someone tell me why the EURO continues to hold strength? i know the differential between the USD and the EURO, but why is the EURO so strong?

my glass is getting shorter on whiskey, ice and water...

rocinante says on Mar 18, 2008, 16:08:

The short: Foreign money is buying Colombian debt securities.

The long:

First:
Gov't debt securities - an example: the US goes into debt by issuing bonds to the public, guaranteed, and pays them back with interest from taxes in the future. The interest rate is determined by interest rates of the country selling debt/bonds, in this example the US - this whole thing is a loan - when you buy a US gov bond you are loaning money to the US gov - they pay you back later with interest)

Enough of Bonds 101...

What is happening is:

When buying debt the buyer/loaner pays the gov issuing the bonds in the currency of that country - The buyer HAS TO.

You can read that twice.

SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO an FX transaction needs take place first at the time of the sale. This transaction takes place at the firm where you hold your brokerage account. This FX transaction BUYS Colombian Pesos and then the purchase of the bonds takes place while you are sitting in your living room talking to your broker in Midtown. (really the buyers are Institutions and Prime Brokerage clients but you get the picture).

Government bonds are pretty safe.

You are a US investor/institution/fund and can park 20 million somewhere. Cd's 2%. Stock market (RISKY!), US GOV bonds at 4.9% or in Colombian Bonds at 11%?

This answers the yield differential between Colombia and the US.

You are talking about the Euro holding strength against the Peso, sí?

The EU still has interest rates attractive to investors so no one is dumping Euros and buying Pesos in order to purchase Colombian government debt at a good rate. Yes it is a better rate in Colombia over Europe but not enough to warrant a huge shift.

The question is Colombia's growth. Can it sustain long term to cover it's high rate debt payback? The world thinks so and so do I. Also remmeber that Colombia peso is a thin float (who's got more currency - the US, The EU or Colombia?) so it doesn't need a great deal of foreign investment to move it substantially.

Lastly and I've said this a million times: The US doesn't giove a crap about the FX rate of COP/USD. The US Federal reserve has 60 other bigger fish to fry.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

rocinante says on Mar 18, 2008, 16:13:

"so, the yield spread between the interest rates of the two countries is the primary driver of the continued peso ascent?"

One of the main reasons yes. But don't discount Colombia's economy and politial stablility factors realized over the past 5 years. Just on that alone, if interest rates hadn't budged nada in the past 5 years the peso would still be gaining, albiet more slowly.

I'm not telling anyone what to do but when the US raises rates in a few years to get back to the level it was 5 years ago (could take 5-7 years total) don't think the COP is just going to drop in the same manner that is has been gaining recently. Recently? How recent is recently?

5 year chart:

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

robi666 says on Mar 18, 2008, 16:24:

That's fast.

"I am a citizen of the most beautiful nation on earth. A nation whose laws are harsh yet simple, a nation that never cheats, which is immense and without borders, where life is lived in the present."

tejasmarcos says on Mar 18, 2008, 16:26:

so - as a layman tired of my crappy returns in the USA, i can instead buy Colombian Bonds at 11%? and i would do this through a trading house - either USA or abroad?

is anybody out there in PBH land buying Colombian Bonds with a 11% yield?

my glass is getting shorter on whiskey, ice and water...

robi666 says on Mar 18, 2008, 16:34:

The greater the risk, the greater the reward...

"I am a citizen of the most beautiful nation on earth. A nation whose laws are harsh yet simple, a nation that never cheats, which is immense and without borders, where life is lived in the present."

rocinante says on Mar 18, 2008, 16:34:

Me

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

tejasmarcos says on Mar 18, 2008, 16:38:

roci - i have my $$ parked in offshore CD's. how would you recommend that one invest in Colombian Bonds? what is the process?

my glass is getting shorter on whiskey, ice and water...

RAAAY says on Mar 18, 2008, 16:49:

Tejas..........just put as much cash as you have into a bag...........I'll pick it up and handle the rest for you..........


.

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

tejasmarcos says on Mar 18, 2008, 16:54:

11% would be a comfy life here in medallo. show me the way.......

do i just need to call a broker and get the scoop?

my glass is getting shorter on whiskey, ice and water...

rocinante says on Mar 18, 2008, 17:44:

Tejas I am not buying in my own account. I could NEVER advise you on anything. I have no idea what your financial make up is nor your future goals - I don't even know your age. If you want a decent return why not just park some money in a Colombia savngs account and get like 8% or 9% insured?

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

tejasmarcos says on Mar 18, 2008, 17:50:

i thought about that, but the horror stories associated with the banks here make me a little nervous. that combined with the fact that my $$ would not be private like it is in panama. as i understand it, i would have to pay taxes to the colombian government. also, i understand DIAN is pretty friendly with the IRS.

my glass is getting shorter on whiskey, ice and water...

rocinante says on Mar 19, 2008, 14:13:

Today's close:

Wed 3/19 Peso/USD

Close: 1821.00

Peso Down/USD up 5.5 pesos

"Colombia's peso dropped 0.4 percent to 1,821.85 per dollar from 1,815 yesterday, according to the Colombian foreign-exchange electronic transactions system, known as SET-FX. It earlier strengthened to 1,802, its highest since July 1999.

``The drop in commodity prices today is leading to some risk aversion,'' said Francisco Chaves, an analyst at Bogota-based brokerage Corredores Asociados. ``Still, the peso will probably continue its strengthening trend in the coming weeks helped by the rate differential.''

`Strong Inflows'

The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark U.S. lending rate three-quarters of a percentage point to 2.25 percent yesterday as part of an effort to shore up growth in the world's biggest economy. The move increased the gap between benchmark U.S. and Colombian rates to 7.5 percentage points, the widest since July 2001.

Julian Ramirez, head analyst at Bogota-based brokerage Proyectar Valores SA, forecasts the Colombian currency will gain to as strong as 1,756 per dollar within the next two weeks.

``We've seen strong inflows from foreign direct investment this year, but it's the spread that will likely accelerate dollar inflows in the short term,'' Ramirez said.

The yield on Colombia's benchmark 11 percent bonds due July 2020 rose 2 basis points to 11.6 percent, according to Colombia's stock exchange. Last Updated: March 19, 2008 15:13 EDT

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602096&sid=atFsSaXn4o48&refer...

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

goin_south says on Mar 19, 2008, 14:29:

up 5 pesos?
holy guacamole.

and, thank you.

houstongal says on Mar 19, 2008, 14:43:

jejeje....isn't the term "holy cannoli"?

Culture is language and language is culture - Dr. Annamaria Napolitano

goin_south says on Mar 19, 2008, 22:39:

guacamole, hg.

and, thank you.

goin_south says on Mar 20, 2008, 22:56:

What happened today?
The Peso took a break for Semana Santa Claus?
No open? no close?

and, thank you.

Rubito says on Mar 20, 2008, 23:01:

Not open till monday.

---Violence is the price of freedom.---

goin_south says on Mar 20, 2008, 23:59:

monday is still a holiday in Colombia... from last word I got.

and, thank you.