Tougher Challenges Ahead for Colombia's Uribe

juancegomez says on Oct 20, 2006, 12:07:

Good analysis, albeit unfortunately not in the best context Given today's real life events, but as far as the medium-long term goes, many of the issues mentioned in this ICG report can and should be addressed.

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goin_south says on Oct 20, 2006, 14:27:

Hardly. Give 'm a break. "blame for the country’s ills will lie squarely with him."

I think not; 'who' is this that is doing the blaming? I hardly think it is fair to expect 40 or more years of catastrophic problems to be solved in 4 to 8 years. In Colombia? Give me a break, and him.

It seems we have not heard so much happening, yet, since re-election, to solve these problems. But, I expect good from Uribe. I think he has good integrity and will not sit and rest on the laurels of success of the first four years. I would think he has his strategies and plans mapped out. I expect more good change with this man as Colombia's leader.

'what does it mean, when one of you (colombians) tell another: YOU WERE NOT/ARE NOT. 'COLOMBIAN ENOUGH'?? jejeje..a mixture, I think, of stupidity mixed with a false sense of arrogance.. How 'colombian' do you have to be? to be 'colombian enough

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tejasmarcos says on Oct 20, 2006, 16:33:

money will always dominate politics. if the future of foreign aid is to diminish, you will see many things return back to the way they were. it is inherent that this country has economic help to balance the tilt of power that big money influences.

trying to walk a straight line on sour mash and cheap wine...

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juancegomez says on Oct 20, 2006, 18:02:

tejasmarcos With all due respect, U.S. aid to Colombia is, yearly, quite less than 10% of our defense budget. And, subsequently, a much lesser % of our total budget.

So the U.S. is not "sustaining" our war effort, much less our economy, barely above collapse or anything like that.

It is a significant amount of help, yes, but not something automatically "saving us from doom" or anything like that.

A couple of expensive things would have to be cut, but not more than that.

So the numbers themselves don't appear to show "OMG, without U.S. aid we can do nothing" as being as a likely future, all other factors aside.

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goin_south says on Oct 21, 2006, 07:48:

Micro to macro... Imagine the world, Juancegomez, without me or you. Without me? No big deal. without you? Well, probably a little greater loss. Ever imagined the Macro version: WITHOUT THE USA? jejeje.... I knew you and some others, hell... even myself... like to think about those scenerios. What would the world be like, then? Quit it; quit wishing. It'll be awhile.

'what does it mean, when one of you (colombians) tell another: YOU WERE NOT/ARE NOT. 'COLOMBIAN ENOUGH'?? jejeje..a mixture, I think, of stupidity mixed with a false sense of arrogance.. How 'colombian' do you have to be? to be 'colombian enough

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Sr Tertius says on Oct 21, 2006, 11:02:

Correct, but mostly obvious "some see a second Uribe term as smooth going but appearances may be deceiving"

That delusion is long gone, even among many of his supporters.

"defines and carries out a national initiative on rural governance and development"

6 years, and so far the only "comprehensive policy" is sending more police. Still waiting.

"The army has failed to win hearts and minds"

That's a euphemism.

"His second term must also devise and implement a new strategy that provides visible rural investment and infrastructure that reaches the poor and brings rule of law and economic opportunity particularly to areas still contested with the insurgents."

Not happening any time soon. Not with the "new" policy of military confrontation. If his new policy is anything like his recent speech, it is going to be inarticulate, violent, and paranoid, getting us in more problems, even with our neighbors--what do they have to do with the bombing...? Scary. I am more inclined towards the declaration of mayor Garzon. Heck, even Anncol sounds reasonable compared to our president. Scary indeed.

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

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goin_south says on Oct 21, 2006, 11:28:

Sunday Arm-Chair Quarterbacks are easy to find; Just look around PBsH. Easy to criticize gwb; easy to criticize alvaro uribe. However vastly different countries and cultures they may be, and it is vastly different as can be, I think those two positions are likely the toughest jobs in the world. (Well, I guess it got a little tough, being Sadaam Hussein, too,...jeje). But, it don't and won't matter whether it is gwb or alvaro uribe; to lead either of these countries to greater peace and prosperity are ultimate challenges.

I think so many here who are critical of gwb, often forget or are completely uninformed about the facts of who really runs the country. It's not the president. You need to dig deep, if you think that.
And, that is probably very true in the case of Colombia/alvaro uribe, as well.
I forget all the names, but there are a few other forces that determine the direction of the usa. Some of you here, informed colombians, know what I mean, maybe more than I do.

The more I think about it, too, with Colombia, the more I see the geography and terrain as a major huge factor in progress or lack of it, in neutralizing negative forces in Colombia. Those Andes Mountains provide the same challenges, I guess, that exist for instance, in Afghanistan.

'what does it mean, when one of you (colombians) tell another: YOU WERE NOT/ARE NOT. 'COLOMBIAN ENOUGH'?? jejeje..a mixture, I think, of stupidity mixed with a false sense of arrogance.. How 'colombian' do you have to be? to be 'colombian enough

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utopiacowboy says on Oct 21, 2006, 12:47:

There is a reason that some countries are ruled by ruthless dictators. One of them was Iraq which does not have a society suitable for democratic institutions. Most Arab countries have medieval societies which need to be governed accordingly.

Disclaimer: any comment I make is inane and is not to be taken seriously, and is so patently ridiculous that no one should take it seriously, even as an insult.

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Sr Tertius says on Oct 21, 2006, 18:09:

The "arm-chair quaterback" cliche is a pretty bad excuse for intellectual laziness. I don't know GWB, but if Alvaro Uribe finds it so challenging to govern the country, he should quit: There are plenty of people that would do his job much better. As for the reason why "most Arab countries have medieval societies," I would ask Mohammed Mossadegh (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammed_Mossadegh)... oh, no, wait... he is dead.

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

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goin_south says on Oct 21, 2006, 19:39:

arm-chair QB's? You're one of them Sr. Tertius and, so m I. Intellectual laziness? Intellect alone has never solved so many problems. Action has. That is what is needed from AU. I have confidence, he will make something good this next three and a half years.

'what does it mean, when one of you (colombians) tell another: YOU WERE NOT/ARE NOT. 'COLOMBIAN ENOUGH'?? jejeje..a mixture, I think, of stupidity mixed with a false sense of arrogance.. How 'colombian' do you have to be? to be 'colombian enough

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goin_south says on Oct 22, 2006, 04:12:

Where are they? "if Alvaro Uribe finds it so challenging to govern the country, he should quit: There are plenty of people that would do his job much better".
What a crock. It is just like being president of USA. One will be the same as the other. All of the politicians on this forum think that one man - gwb or au - can have so much influence over the course of a country, without regard to so many other factors controlling that country's future. I am of the opinion that it wouldn't matter who it is, except in very rare cases. Alvaro Uribe was one such case, when elected in 2002. Maybe not this time around. We will see.

"No hay tal cosa, como ' español perfecto '." __Senora Alta Vista

'what does it mean, when one of you (colombians) tell another: YOU WERE NOT/ARE NOT. 'COLOMBIAN ENOUGH'?? jejeje..a mixture, I think, of stupidity mixed with a false sense of arrogance.. How 'colombian' do you have to be? to be 'colombian enough

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Sr Tertius says on Oct 22, 2006, 08:19:

Galecito There is an appropriate use of "armchair quarterbacking" or similar expressions. This was discussed some time ago. It relates to the unfairness of evaluating your own judgment--which has the benefit of hindsight--to those used to make decisions without that benefit. However, among the many twists of language that the new brand of conservatism brought to the US--and which resonates quite well with Uribe--is to use "armchair quarterbacking" as a one-liner to dismiss any opinion that is not theirs.

So, no, I don't see myself as an "armchair quarterback." I have an opinion and I express it, because that is my duty as a citizen: I have to keep myself thinking, despite mantra of my government, that to defend the democratically established institutions I must trust them blindly, just because the ARE the democratically established institutions. No, sir: I'm not that lazy.

"Intellect alone has never solved so many problems. Action has." Does that mean that we have to stop thinking in order to solve problems? That didn't seem to work too well for GWB. Action by itself doesn't solve problems. We need to think them over, we need to evaluate them, and we need to be critical about them. That's my job as a citizen. What's yours?

"What a crock. It is just like being president of USA. One will be the same as the other."

Right, tell that to people, like me, who lived before and after the Mockus-Peñalosa-Mockus administrations in Bogotá. The fact that public administrations have their hands tied by many factors doesn't automatically mean that "one will be the same as the other." Throw your arms up in the air and do nothing. Give up democracy. That's awesome. Call me an optimist, but I do believe in democratic ideals (there GWB, Alvaro Uribe, and I seem to have a point in common).

People that I am sure will be better presidents than Uribe--mostly not because of them individually, but because of the team that would make up their administration, and no, I don't think they would solve ALL the problems, but at least would minimize the manufacture of new ones. I order of MY preference (and this is only from those who have run or shown interest in the job):

Carlos Gaviria
Antanas Mockus
Lucho Garzon
Angelino Garzon
Rafael Pardo
German Vargas
Cesar Gaviria
Alvaro Leyva

I would vote for ANY of them before voting for Uribe or anyone associated with him.

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

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juancegomez says on Oct 22, 2006, 12:32:

While I won't agree that ANNCOL is more reasonable... ...I will once again say that Uribe didn't have to go to such extremes as breaking off all contact with FARC and announce the "return to the war".

Of course, I know that Uribe has never really changed his security policies, only the style and tone of his speeches which had been moderated in recent months, so I suspect that little will change on the ground, at least in the short term.

But even if that were the case, contacts with FARC should have continued even if they, ultimately, may possibly have planted the bomb (or if they didn't).

I concur with Sr Tertius in that there could be much better presidents than Mr. Uribe, even if they wouldn't resolve all the problems either. And yes, a big part of the problem is the fact that he tends to associate with a team that, unfortunately, includes too many people that, while politically useful, are not morally or intellectually good for Colombia.

I can also partially agree with the list of candidates, though I wouldn't be so sure about the order (My preference for Carlos Gaviria aside, the others below could be arranged in several different ways, depending on the criteria employed).

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Sr Tertius says on Oct 22, 2006, 13:29:

I forgot to mentioned Antonio Navarro Wolff voted best Colombian mayor when in charge of Pasto, a guy who gives politics a good name (imagine that!), and who I had the honor of meeting personally while being a part of AD M-19. I would put him #2, tied with Mockus.

Juance: I agree mostly with you, but compare this portion of Uribe's speech to any of Anncol's "reports":

"Si hay hechos turbios, sancionarlos con toda la determinación. Si hay acusaciones injustas, impedir que acomplejen a la Fuerza Pública, porque la acusación injusta es la maniobra con la cual siempre busca interferirse y debilitarse la política de Seguridad Democrática.

Si alguien de la Fuerza Pública incurre en un delito, a la cárcel, sin vacilación. Si la acusación es injusta, que se le declare inocente sin demoras.

No podemos seguir en el error de que una discusión de falsos positivos interfiera la política de Seguridad Democrática.

Miren: si hay alguien de la Fuerza Pública que comete un delito, a la cárcel. Pero la acusación injusta no puede dominar el debate, para afectar la política de Seguridad Democrática.

Tenemos que tener todo el cuidado para que testimonios de bandidos, a los cuales se les da toda la publicidad, no marchiten, ni acomplejen, ni interfieran la política de Seguridad Democrática.

Si hemos procedido con transparencia, los testimonios de bandidos no tienen por qué afectarnos."

He jumps from the obvious to the outrageous in the same breath. He solves problems by assuming the solutions, which precludes any discussion, any reasoned debate. And people applaud and cheer... it scares the shit out of me.

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

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tejasmarcos says on Oct 22, 2006, 13:47:

juance my comment was "foreign aid", not specifically cash from the US. remember that foreign aid is coming into Colombia from multiple sources around the globe right now. also, it is coming in the form of not just cash, but outright support. some of this support that is having impact is the legal support from the US. by allowing the extradition of the bad guys, it is sending a clear message of solidarity, not to mention removing some of the most notorious from the country (permanently). also, you cannot discount the power of political alignment that is being received by Colombia right now.

* the scenario is far from perfect and i am one of the staunchest critics of certain US policy. however, it is a start and the effort itself is something to build on. the key will be the creation of more capitalistic and legal monetary flow into the country (not going to touch distribution here - too hot of a topic).

trying to walk a straight line on sour mash and cheap wine...

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Sr Tertius says on Oct 22, 2006, 14:14:

Aid as % of GDP in Colombia: 0.2% Which put us in position 120 worldwide (according to nationmaster). However, if aid is redefined as whatever is subjectively viewed as "help," there is no possibility of tracking stats. In fact, I don't think extradition is aiding Colombia at all... but that is a different discussion, just to point out that, under such vague definition, a whole lot of transactions are debateably "aid."

Losing 0.2% of our GDP, when military expenditure is 3.4%, would hurt a few people but would hardly be disastrous. I think what most people in Colombia fear from the US is (a) affecting trade (not aid), particularly some preferential treatment that will soon expire anyway, and (b) losing the US support to access capital from multilateral funds... debt, pricy debt, not aid. I'm sure there are other factors, but these are the principal ones. Aid (which is not all US) is not.

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

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goin_south says on Oct 22, 2006, 19:09:

Now, that would be a challenge ~I forgot to mentioned Antonio Navarro Wolff
voted best Colombian mayor when in charge of Pasto, a guy who gives politics a good name (imagine that!)~

Is this man still in charge of Pasto? (I have a close and highly-regarded connection, there) If he - Antonio Navarro Wolff - could bring half the sense of peace to the rest of Colombia, as exists in Pasto, then the World would change. My friend has always said: Pasto is a very peaceful place, with very pleasant and kind people. I went there once; the people proved my friend was right. (Even a few political people who explained to me their disdain for gwb were very kind to me.)

I like the name: Antonio N Wolff


~No hay tal cosa, como ' español perfecto '.~
____Senora Alta Vista

'what does it mean, when one of you (colombians) tell another: YOU WERE NOT/ARE NOT. 'COLOMBIAN ENOUGH'?? jejeje..a mixture, I think, of stupidity mixed with a false sense of arrogance.. How 'colombian' do you have to be? to be 'colombian enough

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Sr Tertius says on Oct 23, 2006, 08:37:

Navarro (that's his last name; Wolff is his mother's maiden name) was mayor of Pasto during the 1995-97 period. My sister-in-law is "pastusa," and from what she tells me, Navarro still pulls a lot of public opinion there given his successful tenure. In fact, I don't think that Nariño, and particularly Pasto, went with Uribe in the last election. Navarro is currently in the senate. He has worked in many public positions, and I haven't heard a single accusation of wrongdoing in any of them (for a list, check: http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonio_Navarro_Wolff). I learned from that article that the "Best Mayor" award was granted by El Tiempo, FES and "other" institutions, and he was also named "Best Congressman" by the national magazine Cambio.

The shame of it all is that there are a few great people in politics in Colombia (he is not alone), but we insist on electing the worst. And then, we complain.

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

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juancegomez says on Oct 23, 2006, 11:32:

As an addition... Navarro's apparently going to run for Governor of Nariño next year, last I heard.

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Desideria (Moderator) says on Oct 23, 2006, 12:52:

I listened to Navarro during the presidential campaign when they were taking a vote on who was going to be the Polo Candidate on a tv debate and was not overly impressed by his rethorics. Does he have some kind of speech impediment?

Cheers,
Desi


«Sé que los seres humanos y los peces podrán coexistir en paz». ( George W. Bush, Saginaw 29-09-00)

"I have opinions of my own, strong opinions, but I don't always agree with them."-President George W. Bush

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Sr Tertius says on Oct 23, 2006, 14:09:

Speech impediment Yes, he has that problem. I believe it was due to an attempt against him in Cali in 1985, were a grenade exploded and took one of his legs. I think that also had an effect on his speech.

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

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goin_south says on Oct 23, 2006, 16:55:

Juancegomez How long does the term for Governor of a Departmento last? 2 years? other? If I remember right, Narino voted other than Uribe. But, I think Pasto voted 'Uribe'. Can someone check? (Juancegomez...I expect you to know these things, in your sleep!) This is a simple point, but interesting, because generally speaking, Pasto is a place without the problems that so much of Narino has in most or many other parts.

'what does it mean, when one of you (colombians) tell another: YOU WERE NOT/ARE NOT. 'COLOMBIAN ENOUGH'?? jejeje..a mixture, I think, of stupidity mixed with a false sense of arrogance.. How 'colombian' do you have to be? to be 'colombian enough

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mcraig says on Oct 24, 2006, 11:26:

A military solution is a available an will work It took more than four years for the cartels an kingpins to build there empires it will take more than four years to bring them down. But there is a military solution believe me look at how far it has come to this point.

Uribe just needs to keep the country open to internation business an american companies an Latin american companies will keep investing an keep bringing in jobs. Colombia does not produce jobs but prosperous business enviroment bring in outside sompanies coming to colombia to creat jobs.

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utopiacowboy says on Oct 24, 2006, 17:35:

You've got a rather low opinion of Colombia's ability to produce jobs? The only way jobs are produced is by outside companies coming in? My money's on the narcos and cartels to stay on top as they always have. Colombian entrepreneurship at its finest!

Disclaimer: any comment I make is inane and is not to be taken seriously, and is so patently ridiculous that no one should take it seriously, even as an insult.

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goin_south says on Oct 24, 2006, 22:27:

I don't know, utopiacowboy; A distinct memory in El Centro, Medellin was the inside mall leading from one street to another: NOTHING BUT SHOE STORES! BOTH SIDES, ALL THE WAY THRU! I dont' remember ever seeing anything quite like that, with a lady or two you could fall in love with, out front of each store. To the fact that I was with her, and she was complaining anyway, about her feet hurting; wearing some kind of freakin pinpoint high heel, while we have been casually seeing the city.

It's quite an ordeal, when you are only 2nd grade spanish, and you are trying to explain to your novia and convince her that fashion isn't everything, (and that you'll love her all the same) and she would feel somewhat, if not greatly improved, if only she would at least wear something with sole all the way thru, irregardless of heighth (not hers; the shoes'). (No way of talking these ladies into some flats of any kind.)


"No hay tal cosa, como ' español perfecto '." __Senora Alta Vista

'what does it mean, when one of you (colombians) tell another: YOU WERE NOT/ARE NOT. 'COLOMBIAN ENOUGH'?? jejeje..a mixture, I think, of stupidity mixed with a false sense of arrogance.. How 'colombian' do you have to be? to be 'colombian enough

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juancegomez says on Oct 25, 2006, 11:32:

Galecito Governors, currently, have four year terms.

Uribe didn't win Nariño, according to the Registraduría. In fact, although it was a close race, more than half the voters chose other candidates (I'm leaving out those with less than 1% of the vote):

CARLOS GAVIRIA DIAZ : 154,413 - 43.35%
ALVARO URIBE VELEZ : 145,643 - 40.89%
HORACIO SERPA URIBE : 44,285 - 12.43%

http://www.registraduria.gov.co/resprelec2006/0528/index.htm

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Sr Tertius says on Oct 25, 2006, 11:54:

Question (primarily for Juance, but anyone else is welcomed) Why do you think was the primary reason for Nariño to go with Gaviria? Is it

a)Because it is sort of more left-leaning than the rest of the country (I doubt it),

b)The legacy of Navarro Wolff, or

c)The fact they are experiencing first hand the negative impact of Uribe's security and drug enforcement policies?

I'll check registraduria for data from other departamentos. Thanks.

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

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juancegomez says on Oct 25, 2006, 12:07:

Well... I'd say that points b) and c) are closer to the truth, from my perspective. A bit of a) may also apply, but I don't know if it's already covered by b), in a sense.

It should be added, however, that IMHO the impact of Uribe's security policies has not been universally negative.

But Nariño is one clear example of a department where things have worsened, securitywise, both directly and indirectly.

The local paramilitary demobilizations in Nariño have been one of the most controversial ones, and it seems that one of the fakest ones as well. I wouldn't apply that term to the entire process, as flawed as it is, but IMHO it does seem to describe the case of Nariño.

At the same time, FARC has also pushed deeper into Nariño (as well as Putumayo and Cauca, among other departments in the surrounding region), diverting many of its forces from what's known as the main "Plan Patriota" area of operations.

Finally, I'd also say that the negative impact of current drug policies, which didn't begin with Uribe and he hasn't really changed them either, is much more widespread throughout the country, and doesn't only affect Nariño.

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Sr Tertius says on Oct 25, 2006, 12:08:

2006 electoral stats Alvaro Uribe lost in only two departamentos: Nariño and La Guajira. In both cases by a small margin to Carlos Gaviria. I would have thought that if Uribe were to lose to anyone in the Atlantic Coast it would be to the liberal candidate, Serpa. I wonder why Gaviria won in Guajira.

Checking the vote in foreign tables, Gaviria won by a "landslide"... in Cuba. He also won in Russia, but it lost everywhere else to Uribe (as far as I checked), even in China. So much for socialism, he he.

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

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goin_south says on Oct 25, 2006, 23:03:

Sr Tertius I guess you are talking about 'absentee voting' in those other countries by Colombians?

And, Juancegomez.
I don't have time to look for myself, but still wondering about 'Pasto'; if Uribe or Gaviria won Pasto's vote? I only know what I read, and what I have always been told by my friends, dos Pastusas, and also what I felt while I was there, and Pasto is still so unique in comparison to most of the remainder of Narino. And, I even think perhaps you have written yourself, or maybe someone else who is somewhat objective on this forum, that there is NO WAY THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA WILL ALLOW THE FARC TO CONTROL ... PASTO; that Pasto will be forever protected from the strife presented elsewhere by the Farc. Do you agree?

'what does it mean, when one of you (colombians) tell another: YOU WERE NOT/ARE NOT. 'COLOMBIAN ENOUGH'?? jejeje..a mixture, I think, of stupidity mixed with a false sense of arrogance.. How 'colombian' do you have to be? to be 'colombian enough

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juancegomez says on Oct 26, 2006, 20:06:

Galecito Seems like your friends were telling the truth. Uribe won in Pasto.

Here are the results:

ALVARO URIBE VELEZ -53,875 - 50.16%
CARLOS GAVIRIA DIAZ -43,004 - 40.04%
HORACIO SERPA URIBE - 6,464 - 6.01%

http://www.registraduria.gov.co/resprelec2006/0528/index.htm

As for your last comment...I wouldn't say "never", though it would be reasonable enough, but "extremely unlikely" seems like a good bet.

All things considered, it looks like FARC will not be able to seize control of any significantly sized city or major town, for the time being. At least not until many, many things change.

The worst that the FARC have been able to do was to raid the small city of Mitú, in Vaupés, for three days.

But Pasto is several times larger and much, much more developed than Mitu (there are more people in Pasto than in the entire department of Vaupés), so that possibility is extremely remote.

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cali373 says on Oct 27, 2006, 10:38:

galecito I agree that it is too much to be resolved in 4-7 years. Uribe while with many faults and basically giving the US a loose reign on Colombia has done more than any other president. Corruption really has not changed though, at least I do not sense that is it has. He is a workaholic and a good planner. But the reality is that most likely the blame will be pointed at him, even though it is the establishment as a whole who should be blamed.

Smile if you are a thinker!

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Sr Tertius says on Oct 30, 2006, 17:13:

absentee voting The concept of "absentee voting" does not exist in the Colombian electoral system. You always vote in person, cedula in hand. If you are out of Colombia, it's usually conducted in a nearby consulate or on a desk set up by the nearest consulate.

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

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