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Time to change $$.$$

I know this is all a totally speculative matter, but when is good to change $ to pesos. I am purchasing a home here and I will be signing today and my 10% will be arriving tomorrow morning. I have a little time to play with and wait to get a good rate. I expect the $ to peso rate to keep going, seems to be going sky high already today, which is good because I have the next 3 months to pay the other 90 %. I know there isn't much to be gained talking hour to hour, but why not try. Not looking for any scientific studies, but any advice or basic trends. Like I have noticed it tends to peak about 830 in the morn, probably when most of the transactions start going through.

Cheers

By Beachbros on Sep 17, 2008, 11:30 in Friendly Talkzone.

spy1983 says on Sep 17, 2008, 11:40:

I think October 6th at 3:46 pm.

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rocinante says on Sep 17, 2008, 12:03:

He's off by two minutes - don't listen to him.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Not that the US president actually runs the US." Feb 5, 2008

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spigrimace says on Sep 17, 2008, 12:28:

"I have a little time to play with and wait to get a good rate" ummm how about now?

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sanandressi says on Sep 17, 2008, 12:32:

Well, I will try and be maybe a little more helpful then these other two. OIl is coming down in price and the peso is going up against the dollar so maybe watch the price of oil. If it drops then will the peso go higher still? Just a hunch I mean Colombia does have some oil. Not like Venezuela but it is there. If it takes less dollars to buy a barrel then maybe the peso gets weaker against the dollar and goes up against the dollar? Hell, I dunno.....

"This train will stop in Tucumcari"

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gringoloid (Trustee board) says on Sep 17, 2008, 12:49:

podborski takes the lead.............i don't believe it

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nine inch nails says on Sep 17, 2008, 13:28:

"The Dow fell 455 points in the second worst day of the year, with investors spooked by the federal bailout of insurance titan AIG."

Oh no, it's all melting awaaaaaaaaaaay.............

The Hedge funds have all gone wild on us!

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Beachbros says on Sep 17, 2008, 16:30:

Thanks for the advice,sorry, the useful advice. As I have three payments over the next 3 months its good to consider these things. The best I have seen in former posts is when the US market/world market drops every one wants to put there money in a more secure currency, like the dollar, thus the peso per dollar go up up up.

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pedro (☼Travelguide writer) says on Sep 17, 2008, 16:47:

Consider sending down your wire transfer(s) immediately. You only lock in the rate when you tell the Colombian bank to change your money into pesos, which involves you signing the form 4.

Expect a delay of about 7 to 10 working days between the moment you send the money from your home bank until the moment your Colombian bank reports it being available.

Once it's available, you go into the branch, "negotiate" the rate, and sign the form 4. The change operation is then executed, and the money hits your account after close of business that day.

If you don't like the rate offered that morning, you can wait and change to pesos on another day of your choosing.

In other words, there's probably no reason not to send a large part of the money immediately, so that you're ready to pull the trigger when the rate looks good to you.

que nota!

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Beachbros says on Sep 17, 2008, 17:06:

Cheers pedro!

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ozgringo says on Sep 17, 2008, 19:45:

Looking at the charts the dollar is in for a dive I would suggest changing asap. Here is my standard risk disclaimer... lol..

Foreign Exchange ("Forex") trading carries a high degree of risk.

tried to think of something deep to write here.. but couldn't think of anything..

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guacharaca says on Sep 17, 2008, 20:44:

Reduce risk by changing each of your three payments at three different times. Of course if you see 2300, dump it all in at once.

Colombianos: Las armas os han dado independencia, las leyes os daran libertad. (Santander)

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Beachbros says on Sep 17, 2008, 21:50:

Thats what I was thinking. Good to know that I shouldn't hope for more than 2300.
I am seeing 2166 on most websites but someone in connection with the bank says 2109 is what the actual going rate will go at. IS THIS TRUE OR SHOULD I EXPECT WHAT I SEE ON YAHOO OR PORTAFOLIO.COM?

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guacharaca says on Sep 18, 2008, 07:42:

Yahoo is updated every few minutes. Banks tend to use the noon rate or the closing rate and add on their commission (for atm withdrawals, they use the noon rate). Even the most efficient Canadian Bank (TD Waterhouse rates) won't quite get you the yahoo rate. I see the situation in Colombia as that I am stuck with the rate that my Colombian Bank decides to give me. It is not like I can go to the neighboring bank who won't open an account for me.

Colombianos: Las armas os han dado independencia, las leyes os daran libertad. (Santander)

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Beachbros says on Sep 18, 2008, 10:31:

For example Portafolio.com says 2210 right now where banco republico shows 2139. What should I expect to get if changing tens of thousands of dollars. I have heard with that amount of money you should bargain for a better rate, how much?

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pedro (☼Travelguide writer) says on Sep 18, 2008, 11:24:

Banco de la Republica's rate is probably yesterday's official rate, which is used for ATM withdrawals today.

Portafolio is the live market rate.

The rate offered by your bank is negotiated with their trading desk in Bogota, depending on what the market is doing at that moment.

The bank will use the market rate less a commission / margin. You negotiate to ideally stop them gouging you badly on the rate.

You don't have much negotiating power once your money is in Colombia and pending release into your account. You could theoretically send the money back to the US, at your expense, if you weren't satisfied with the rate. But noone wants to do that.

The one thing you have in your favour is to say "I have x thousand dollars to change. I need a good rate this time to convince me to bring the other tranches down through your bank. If you can't give me a better commission than 4% below the current market rate which is what you're currently offering, I'll be obliged to look for another bank and won't be able to do any more transactions with you. I hope you understand my situation, this is a lot of money for me."

In my limited experience, 1% or less commission and you are doing very well.

que nota!

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Beachbros says on Sep 18, 2008, 11:56:

Thanks man, that is a huge help, as i will be opening a bank account after this transaction and bringing more money down they really should bend over backwards to prove themselves.

Huge help

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spy1983 says on Sep 18, 2008, 12:00:

peso at 2600 in a week.

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pedro (☼Travelguide writer) says on Sep 18, 2008, 12:08:

"they really should bend over backwards to prove themselves" -- BB

You would hope so, but I wouldn't expect too much. They will just as soon let you walk.

The best you could hope for is to pare away the excess a little bit.

You're welcome, good luck with the transactions. Just look at the time and fees invested as a cost of doing business in Colombia. On the whole, it seems a good idea strategically to lock in these rates by moving some capital here to Colombia. Assuming your desire is to live in Colombia medium / long term.

Many people liked Brazil, but got priced out of it when the currency strengthened dramatically.

One other negotiating tip you can use is to offer to open a CDT (term deposit). Banks like customers who open term deposits. This of course depends on having spare liquidity, which not many of us have, these days.

que nota!

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quantum says on Sep 19, 2008, 15:48:

2600 in a week hey Spy. What u been smokin, bro?

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Beachbros says on Sep 20, 2008, 13:52:

I faxed a signed request to my USB bank advisor and the next morning it arrived here in the Century account. It sits there in dollars waiting approval to be converted and released. All it requires is you to fill out form 4 and 11 there in the bank, show a signed compraventa by both parties, and give them the OK. They call in and give you the rate and if you like it, bam, money will be free that afternoon. Now in terms of exchange rate. I wa told 4% margin was petty cash, anything better than 1% was good. There was no way for me to watch the current real market feed so i sent my brother to the internet to see what kind of rate they were giving me. It was in fact a third of a percent, quite good if you ask me. I was kinda under the wire, because i could only get the sellers to sign the compraventa if I realeased the money that day. Thus I couldn't sit and wait till the market was good. I will do that next time for the 90% of the money I have not yet paid for the building.

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rocinante says on Oct 9, 2008, 22:17:

"Look liar. You predicted silver would go through the roof all over the place." (http://poorbuthappy.com/colombia/post/50-cent---/) ISpy1983

t's nice to fool the sheep here but I'm above that. Everyone knows I made no such prediction. Yet they say nothing. Do I care? I'm not afraid to expose you as the crackpot you are, not that I have to do anything. Are you even going to inform us just how blacks and "bad culture" have sunk the global economy? (my post without your quotes http://poorbuthappy.com/colombia/post/dow-down-700/) As usual you can't. No suprise. You'd have better luck explaining how to get laid in your home town - another impossibility.

"peso at 2600 in a week."(http://poorbuthappy.com/colombia/post/time-to-change-/) 9-18-2008

I made my prediction 9 months in advance without prior knowledge of a global economic crash or a Colombian central bank intervention. Plus I am man enough to have one handle on PBH. You can even handle two weeks of a peso prediction!

Hey, thanks for stopping by. Care to find my post about me predicting a price on silver? Care to explain how blacks don't pay taxes and how hop hop culture has destroyed the global economy? Anyone who acknowledgs you is a bigger idiot than you. So you've got that going for you. Which is nice.

It's tough dealing with someone who has brains, so it's best to ignore me. you have been doing just that all along and frankly that is your only recourse for your syupid statemnts.

SILVER(that's how it is spelled) - in case you are still sniffng glue http://poorbuthappy.com/colombia/post/50-cent---/

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Not that the US president actually runs the US." Feb 5, 2008

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goin_south says on Oct 9, 2008, 22:37:

time 2 change currencies???
I think, honestly, if it were not for 2 lateblooming teens, still depending on me,..... I would be CHANGING COUNTRIES........

ONE COUNTRY GOIN_SOCIALISTICA..... eeuu.... para...... ONE THAT STILL SEEMS TO BE JUST NOW ARRIVING AT ITS ..........REPUBLICAN......SENSES.....Colombia.

Why Not Colombia?..........Stay Tuned, for more.... utterly worthless, self-indulgent gobbets of nonsense.

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casa_de_norte says on Oct 9, 2008, 22:42:

after the drubbing on the market, I am thinking the COP will be trending WAY down...
jmho.. and more`wishing and inferences rather than any real sort of analysis

"Why cain't we all jus' git along?!?! "----- The great Rodney King

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rocinante says on Oct 9, 2008, 22:55:

Not many here give analysis so don't worry.

The US economy has been in the slums, slowly for the past couple years. Practically every major currnency has gained during that time. Not really rocket science to think tha ttrend hold steady. I am not a genius.

Recently there is a global panic that has absolutely NOTHING to do with the fundamentals of the the US or Colombia - however a global panic like we have now is forcing everyone to obviously buy dollars for many reasons (bonds?). This is the spike I thought we'd see after the election in the summer to come.

I have no crystal ball but to predict in February that the dollar would go to 1400 nine months later is a very bold statement - and it did hit 1650 in June - no small small potatoes considering you have boneheads losing bets on the USD being 4000! LOL!

Then the Colombian central bank jumps thought hoops, and rightfully so, to slow the appreciation.

Now that the entire world economy is in a shmbles every loser who was bullish on the peso 9 months has a soapbox and is claiming guru and swami status. For how long? We'll see. Where were these guys when it was 1650? Where will these guys be when it hits 1650 again?

Me? It doesn't really matter to me because when it was 1650 and when it hits 1500 I didn't and I won't shoot my mouth off like an amateur. I have class and not only do I back up what I say but I stick to my guns with only one handle here.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Not that the US president actually runs the US." Feb 5, 2008

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goin_south says on Oct 9, 2008, 23:04:

I have class? spanish class? que clase?

I think,... tu tiene suenos....lol

Why Not Colombia?..........Stay Tuned, for more.... utterly worthless, self-indulgent gobbets of nonsense.

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