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The Washington Post: Advantage, Mr. Chávez

Advantage, Mr. Chávez

It's too easy for the Venezuelan caudillo to put the Obama administration on the defensive.

Monday, August 24, 2009

IN THE COURSE of the past month, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez has been exposed as a supplier of advanced weapons to a terrorist group that seeks to overthrow Colombia's democratic government. In his own country, he has shut down 32 independent radio stations. His rubber-stamp National Assembly has passed laws to gerrymander districts in next year's parliamentary elections and eliminate the autonomy of universities. Mr. Chávez has pledged to purchase dozens of tanks from Russia, and he has scheduled a trip to Tehran next month to reinforce his support for beleaguered Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

So, naturally, Latin American leaders are planning a summit in Argentina this month to urgently confer about . . . an unremarkable U.S.-Colombian agreement for American forces to use a few Colombian military bases for counternarcotics and counterterrorism surveillance operations.

The bilateral deal has yet to be signed or officially unveiled, though negotiations on it were completed last week. Yet already it's perfectly clear that it would not bring about a significant increase in U.S. military operations in Latin America or pose a threat to anyone other than the drug traffickers and terrorists of the FARC movement -- the group that Mr. Chávez has been supporting in clear violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions and the Organization of American States charter. U.S. planes and ships have been conducting surveillance missions in the region for years; U.S. personnel have been stationed in Colombia for nearly a decade. There would be no U.S. control over any of the bases in Colombia, and the operations would be limited to Colombian territory.

So why the hubbub among Latin leaders? In part, it stems from ingrained suspicion among leftists toward any American military initiative in the region. But mostly the controversy reflects another successful effort by Mr. Chávez to deflect attention from his own behavior while putting the Obama administration on the defensive. Ever since reports of the agreement began appearing in the Colombian media, the Venezuelan leader has been braying about the "winds of war" supposedly blowing through South America thanks to new "American bases," which he claims are intended for an invasion of his country.

It shouldn't be very hard to refute such nonsense, but the Obama administration's response was late and underpowered. Up until a meeting between Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and the Colombian foreign minister last week, there had been no concerted U.S. effort to explain the agreement. Nor has the administration tried to call attention to the genuine and serious hostile actions that Mr. Chávez has taken against his neighbors and the democratic opposition in his own country. Those should rightfully be the subject of urgent inter-American consultations. That they are not shows how far the administration is from mounting effective Latin American diplomacy.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/23/AR2009...

By Simon on Aug 24, 2009, 10:45 in Politics & the war.

davidyamiga says on Aug 24, 2009, 11:28:

Azuno...do u think that if the US really wanted to, they would already have taken care of Chavez? The US does not need any bases in South America to take care of Chavez. Thing is, Chavez owes a LOT of money to his neighbors and he is covering up. Venezuela owes like 200 million to Colombia, Like 60 million to Ecuador. Several million to Brazil. He doesn't have the money to pay.

Otra vez en casa...Cali!

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Aji1 says on Aug 24, 2009, 12:44:

Obama is turning out to big on dreams, short on true leadership.

I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me liberty or give me death!

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Simon says on Aug 24, 2009, 13:18:

But if the Russians back up Chavez, it's not going to be as easy as you guys think.

"Just an honest, decent Colombian trying to do the right thing."--Simon

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billyb says on Aug 24, 2009, 14:06:

Russia wouldn't risk anything with the US to back up the chimp. For one thing, they only have a couple ships in shape to sail that far.

"All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I never go there" Unkown (at least to me) wise man.

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seth.depenning says on Aug 24, 2009, 16:15:

Indeed the United States should prioritize ending its dependence on foreign oil. It is a glaringly obvious strategic weakness that so much of our energy comes from foreign and frequently hostile nations. Importing large amounts of oil from the Middle East and Venezuela is simply absurd.

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utopiacowboy says on Aug 24, 2009, 20:41:

I love the way Chavez used to fuck Bush in the ass and made him like it. Is there is a stupider people on the planet than Americans? They make their enemies rich and then whine about it. They make themselves debtors to their biggest enemy and whine about that too. They deserve to be slaves and maybe someday in the not too distant future, everyone will own one.

Disclaimer: any comment I make is inane and is not to be taken seriously, and is so patently ridiculous that no one should take it seriously, even as an insult.

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Simon says on Aug 24, 2009, 20:45:

"Russia wouldn't risk anything with the US to back up the chimp. For one thing, they only have a couple ships in shape to sail that far."

Yeah, but didn't the media report the other week that Russian nuclear subs had been patrolling a little too close to the US coast?

"Just an honest, decent Colombian trying to do the right thing."--Simon

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poco says on Aug 24, 2009, 20:52:

Quote: Is there is a stupider people on the planet than Americans?
====================================================
I was thinking maybe there were a few,, like maybe in africa,, but that's mostly ignorance.

Quote: I love the way Chavez used to fuck Bush in the ass and made him like it
===============================================
Guess I missed that ? Probably was busy working,, you remember,, back when people had jobs ?

Colombian Chickens are crowing about the new President of the U.S. who will assure that From each according to their ability to each according to their need.

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El Expatriado says on Aug 25, 2009, 02:30:

US or anyone else really doesn't give a crap about these 3rd world Banana republics. Why should the care about Venezuela's oil when they have peaceful Alberta next door.

MiddleEast and Asia has Geo-politcal importance. Latin America (other than Brazil, which is independent, self-assured and powerful) is and will continue to be a backwater.

But reat place to visit and retire. I like backwaters.

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El Expatriado says on Aug 25, 2009, 02:39:

Venezuela owes like $200 million to Chevron, and they didn't eave and freeze thier bank accounts like Exxon did.

Chavez owes a lot of money to a lot of people. Do you think he will pay? He is like your Novia's cousin you "lent" $300 K peseo to. Do you think you'll ever see it back? Try and get it back and he'll be calling you a sulphurous smelling Diablo.

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El Expatriado says on Aug 25, 2009, 02:45:

Machi, you obciously don't work in the oil industry or been to Africa. Things don't work that way, pretty-like. The Niger Delta now makes Medellin in the 1990s look like Disneyworld. Venezuela is a lot more stable than a lot of places.

You guys don't even realize you have 300 billion barrels just north of you in a stable, capitolist regime. Problem is Obama and Hillary are thinking about Shutting it down for "Environmental" reasons.

Oh well the Chinese will be in there like a Hen on a June Bug.(as you good 'ol boys would say)

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El Expatriado says on Aug 25, 2009, 02:47:

If you were to Africa, you were wearing rose coloured glasses, and weren't in Nigeria, Algeria or Angola.

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gatogris says on Aug 25, 2009, 09:39:

In 2007, on a net basis, the United States imported 58 percent of the oil it consumed. Of this, the single largest supplier was Canada, followed by Mexico. The US has purchased its oil from a variety of different sources as a way to discourage any efforts by foreign countries to destabilize markets for competitive advantage. The (short-term) major risk to the United States posed by reliance on oil is the economic costs of a major disruption in global oil supplies, but this risk is clearly offset by the cost any one country would face from losing the US as a consumer. There is no evidence that oil exporters have been able to use embargoes or threats of embargoes to achieve key political and foreign policy goals for 30 years. Oil revenues are irrelevant for terrorist groups' ability to launch attacks.

Chavez has no play here. Talk has halted on plans for a Pacific pipeline, and China has not retooled its refineries for Venezuela's heavy-sulfur crude, preferring instead to concentrate on African sources.

The real question, from a diplomatic standpoint, has long been how best to respond to Chavez. He has said that the plan to give American forces the use of Colombian bases could touch off a war in South America and that he will buy "several battalions of Russian tanks" in response. This is plainly nonsense, at least for the time being.

But the risk is that the US could find itself embroiled in a 21st century dirty war, as Chavez may decide to ramp up his support of the FARC, and through them, drug-traffickers, in effect using them as a proxy force to exert pressure on Colombia in retaliation for allowing the US access, and the US will then respond by more aggressively pumping war materiel and 'civilian contractors' into the region, and then presto! we've got Nicaragua in 1985.

That is a bad scenario for everyone, but it doesn't mean it won't happen.

Its time to open up some back channels, and I'm not talking about UC's idea of back channels.

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El Expatriado says on Aug 26, 2009, 03:35:

And, despite the Sierra club, green peace, and a bunch of other tree hugger groups protsting, they just approved th Alberta clipper pipeline- anothe 600,000 bopd to eventually replace Chavez's crude.
Not that Venezuela will have much production soon, the way they are neglecting the fields.

But like I said. outside of PBH and North of Mexico and anywhere east or West, nobody gives a real Rat's ass about Latin America.

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El Expatriado says on Aug 26, 2009, 03:37:

Chavez is a big talker on oil deals. All his dealngs with Russia has only resulted in exchange of paper bags and breif cases. Which is the real objective anyway.

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Simon says on Aug 26, 2009, 12:58:

El Expatriado,

You certainly give a fok about Latin America or else you wouldn't be here, you fokin' redneck!

"Just an honest, decent Colombian trying to do the right thing."--Simon

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El Expatriado says on Aug 27, 2009, 02:23:

I am in PBH. Not a red neck, just stating the facts. Geo-political value of Latin America in the world scene is casi Ni-Papi.

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El Expatriado says on Aug 27, 2009, 02:24:

Disculpame Ni-Papa

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cali373 says on Aug 27, 2009, 08:54:

The posts on this thread are ridiculous. The U.S. or Colombia is not going to attack Venezuela, just wait and see. And chavez will stay in power for a long time and the venezuelen economy would be the same with a right wing oligarc in power because that's the way it was when they had the oligarch in power.

Venezuela's economy relies too much on oil and very unsustainable, they have always relied on imports for most of their supplies. guess what? that was the case way before Chavez. However Chavez for being really stupid (because he really is), he is clever in ways to piss off the U.S. and Colombia. looking for markets and trading partners else where. The U.S. will always buy its oil, chavez never has to worry about that. as far food supplies, Venezuela is actively looking to replace Colombia's imports. Threat or no threat, Chavez is the kind of person that would not back out on that. And that is not good for Colombia in any way.

I find it interesting that Chavez has not invaded anyone or supported coups, or caused killing of thousands of inocent lives, yet he is called a madman over GW Bush. Stupid yes, madman, is he?

He is such a madman that member of PBH have such a hard on for him instead of spending their time actually doing something good for the people of Colombia.

Smile if you are a thinker!

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El Expatriado says on Aug 28, 2009, 04:10:

Every year, Venezuelan Crude is being replaced bit by bit by Alberta Heavy Crude in the Texas Gulf and Mid-West. Venezuela isn't investing squat in thier oilfields. Thier conventional wells have a depletion rate of 10% per year. There are no tankers available to take Bitumen from Venezueal to China. The Chinese are getting tired of him and prefer Africa.

At least the "Right Wing Oligarchs" had some common economic sense, allthough they were corupt bastards, that's why Chavez got in in the first place.

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El Expatriado says on Aug 28, 2009, 04:15:

Don't kid yourself. Actually Chavez hasn't done any murdering or invading, because he doesn't have the power. If he had the powr of the US, the entire Western Hemispher would be forcibly living the Bolivarian Revolution.

You have to remember that US GDP is 35 times as big as Venezuea's even in a recession.

Besides that, in case you didn't notice,Bush is no longer president, and you are right, Chavez will be in power for a long... time. Pobresita Venezuelanos.

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El Expatriado says on Aug 28, 2009, 04:16:

You ae right though, nobody is going to attack nobody.

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