http://www.latinbusinesschronicle.com/app/article.aspx?id=2790
Monday, October 6 2008 Updated at 08:00 AM.
Monday, October 06, 2008
The U.S. Election and Latin America
DIFFERENT APPROACHES: Senators Barack Obama and John McCain seem to approach Latin America differently, especially on the issue of trade, the author points out. (Illustration: The American)
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A President Obama or a President McCain will have to address trade, immigration, Hugo Chávez, and more.
BY JAIME DAREMBLUM
During [the recent] presidential debate, which concentrated largely on foreign policy, the two candidates hardly mentioned Latin America. We heard nothing about the free trade agreements with Colombia and Panama, nothing about Mexico’s increasingly violent war on drugs, nothing about boosting economic cooperation with Brazil and other regional powers, and nothing about promoting a democratic transition in Cuba. Barack Obama cited Venezuela as one of the oil-rich “rogue states” that pose a challenge to U.S. energy policy, and John McCain blasted the Democratic candidate for his earlier promises to meet with the leaders of Venezuela and Cuba “without preconditions” during his first year in office. Other than that, Latin America was almost completely absent from the conversation.
NO SURPRISE
This was not terribly surprising. Given the panoply of challenges that the next U.S. president will face—in Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, and elsewhere—it is understandable that Latin America has received only minimal attention on the campaign trail. Barring a regional crisis, the Western Hemisphere will not be a top-tier priority for the next administration, regardless of who wins the election. The 9/11 terrorist attacks pushed Latin America to the background of U.S. foreign policy discussions, and even the noisy, belligerent rise of Hugo Chávez has not changed that. Latin American officials must realize that neither a President Obama nor a President McCain will alter the fundamental orientation of U.S. foreign policy, which is focused mainly on the Middle East and Asia.
Of course, Latin America won’t be ignored completely. Obama and McCain seem to approach the region differently, especially on the issue of trade. McCain has been a staunch free trader throughout his career on Capitol Hill, and he favors the bilateral trade pacts with Colombia and Panama, both of which are awaiting congressional approval. In early July, McCain visited Cartagena to demonstrate his support for Colombian President Álvaro Uribe and urge passage of the trade accord. Obama opposes the Colombia and Panama deals (as do most congressional Democrats), and has even suggested that he might try to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, which Congress approved way back in 1993.
Although McCain is a free trader, his election would not necessarily lead to a burst of trade liberalization in the Western Hemisphere. The Democratic Congress has shown itself to be very protectionist, and it has stymied President Bush’s trade agenda for two years now. Assuming that Democrats maintain their control of Congress—which seems virtually guaranteed—a President McCain would face stiff opposition on trade expansion. The Colombia and Panama agreements might remain in limbo. Obama, meanwhile, has criticized free trade on the campaign trail and in the Senate—he voted against the Central American Free Trade Agreement in 2005—and we have no way of knowing whether he would change his tune if elected.
HOPEFUL
Trade policy aside, many people in Latin America seem hopeful that a President Obama would boost economic assistance to the region. The Illinois senator has pledged that his administration would “substantially increase our aid to the Americas.” However, given the financial bailout package and Obama’s plans to spend more on healthcare, education, and energy, it is unlikely that Latin America would see a major increase in U.S. aid. Congress has more pressing spending concerns.
What about immigration? In the past, both McCain and Obama have favored comprehensive immigration reform. In July, Obama told the League of United Latin American Citizens that it would be “a top priority in my first year as president.” But immigration is a highly controversial issue among members of both parties. If a President McCain or a President Obama pushed for comprehensive immigration reform early in his tenure, he would be taking a big political risk.
On Venezuela, McCain has hammered Obama for vowing to meet with Chávez without preconditions. That was indeed a reckless comment, and Obama has paid for it. But it’s unclear whether either candidate could do much to sway Venezuelan foreign policy. Until oil prices drop significantly—which probably won’t happen anytime soon—Chávez will be swimming in petrodollars, which will allow him to continue funding his ideological comrades around the region.
RUSSIA AND IRAN
The Venezuelan president has also cultivated warm relations with Russia and Iran. As The New York Times reports, Russian and Venezuelan officials recently agreed to establish “a Russian-Venezuelan energy consortium that would share resources to produce and sell oil and gas. Russian companies are already at work exploring oil fields in Venezuela, but the agreement will allow them to expand their reach into more areas, including fields in Ecuador and Bolivia.” Moscow and Caracas may also begin collaborating on nuclear energy.
As for Iran, there is evidence tying Chávez to the Iranian-backed terrorist group Hezbollah. In June, U.S. Treasury Department official Adam J. Szubin charged the Venezuelan government with “employing and providing safe harbor to Hezbollah facilitators and fundraisers.” This came just months after the latest exposure of Chávez’s links to the FARC terrorists in Colombia.
The good news is that Chávez does not represent the broader Latin American left. Over the past few years, a series of more responsible, pragmatic center-left leaders have taken office in Brazil, Uruguay, Chile, and Peru. Meanwhile, center-right reformers have been elected in Colombia and Mexico. Thanks to the efforts of presidents like Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Brazil), Tabaré Vázquez (Uruguay), Michelle Bachelet (Chile), Alan García (Peru), Álvaro Uribe (Colombia), and Felipe Calderón (Mexico), the region as a whole has been doing fairly well.
Indeed, the vast majority of Latin American countries have been able to build more resilient economies, diminish poverty, and consolidate democracy. Assuming the financial turmoil does not trigger a deep global recession, most of Latin America looks poised to continue on a relatively stable path of economic development and democratic maturation. The United States can and should play a significant role in supporting that process, even if, unfortunately, its chief foreign policy priorities lie elsewhere.
Jaime Daremblum, Costa Rica’s former ambassador to the United States, is director of the Center for Latin American Studies at the Hudson Institute. The article originally appeared in the online version of The American magazine (www.american.com).
By mariacvetanoski on Oct 6, 2008, 06:09 in Politics & the war.
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mariacvetanoski says on Oct 6, 2008, 06:10: During [the recent] presidential debate, which concentrated largely on foreign policy, the two candidates hardly mentioned Latin America. We heard nothing about the free trade agreements with Colombia and Panama, nothing about Mexico’s increasingly violent war on drugs, nothing about boosting economic cooperation with Brazil and other regional powers Save the street children of Colombia Now!! 0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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chingon says on Oct 6, 2008, 06:31: And?
0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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mariacvetanoski says on Oct 6, 2008, 07:09: TRUE! Save the street children of Colombia Now!! 0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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mariacvetanoski says on Oct 6, 2008, 08:50: 29 MORE DAYS TILL THE ELECTION IN THE USA!!! Save the street children of Colombia Now!! 0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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Bill Turley (Trustee board) (☼Travelguide writer) says on Oct 6, 2008, 09:08: Yeah then we could elect PALEN Mr. Bill Somondoco 0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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miamimike says on Oct 6, 2008, 11:04: Yeah then we could elect PALEN Avatar Legend: Bush "If any of you Reporters are wondering, it was a Size 10" 0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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sanandressi says on Oct 6, 2008, 11:21: Uribe met with Sarah Palin in New York a few weeks ago and McCain has been to Colombia. McCain was born in Panama. Not sure if he grew up there though. "This train will stop in Tucumcari" 0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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mariacvetanoski says on Oct 6, 2008, 11:23: well said! agree 100%!!!!! Save the street children of Colombia Now!! 0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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Mononoke28 says on Oct 6, 2008, 11:36: I'm probably going to get crucified for this but I really don't care about any plans that the new administration will have in regards to foreign policy with Latin America or any other country. I think the best thing to do for now is to focus on our internal problems, fix the economy, help the unemployed, come up with a good health plan, education, etc. Once it starts getting better the rest of the world will follow. But for now, I really don't care what Obama or McCain have to say in regards to the TLC in Colombia. Diana 0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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miamimike says on Oct 6, 2008, 11:53: Mononoke--Well said! And as I deal only in hard FACT, You won't get crucified by me! We have our own problems in the USA and the reason we have some of these problems is that this administration has ignored them and instead have gotten us bogged down into a winless war in Iraq that's bleeding the US taxpayer of $2-$3 BILLION Dollars weekly and we are borrowing this money to boot from the Chinese. In reference to your comment on Healthcare, let me add, since the Spring of 2001, we now have approx 50 million uninsured Americans, when "W" took office(spring 2001), this number was around 42,000,000.Approx 8 Milliom more uninsured,,,Nice Job eh? Avatar Legend: Bush "If any of you Reporters are wondering, it was a Size 10" 0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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sanandressi says on Oct 6, 2008, 11:56: Yes, Monoke28, but Free Trade is about improving the US economy or what ails it. The one thing I like about Obama is how he talks about keeping jobs in the US but how will he do that? I mean, if I want to shut my plant and send it to China who can stop me? "This train will stop in Tucumcari" 0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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miamimike says on Oct 6, 2008, 12:03: Sanadressi--where were you when the Unfair(to us labor and companies) Andean Trade pact was signed by Bush One in 1991 granting all these advantages to Colombia(export duty free to the USA) while US Companies like Caterpillar were strapped with huge Import Tariffs when they shipped their products into Colombia? Where was the outrage??? Is this fair?? I want a Prez in office who STOPS unfair Trade Advantages like this,,, Avatar Legend: Bush "If any of you Reporters are wondering, it was a Size 10" 0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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miamimike says on Oct 6, 2008, 12:07: Wall Street Dives 600 Points !! Do we have Problems in the US that need to be addressed now instead of leveling, what may or may not be contrived charges against an opponent that happened 40 years ago??? YES WE DO! We need these parties to direct their Talk towards what they will do to rectify this CURRENT problem. Avatar Legend: Bush "If any of you Reporters are wondering, it was a Size 10" 0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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Mononoke28 says on Oct 6, 2008, 13:55: Don't get me wrong, I would love for Colombia to get a fair deal out of this but for now, I'm not even thinking about it. I just can't. I live in the US and have been for most of my life and I need to make sure that this country is doing well here before it goes out and spends more money on something that will benefit other countries. And besides, Colombia is not dying because the TLC hasn't been approved. It'll get approved and once it does, people will be very happy, including me. But not until the US gets back on its feet. Diana 0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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sanandressi says on Oct 6, 2008, 14:06: Hey MiamiMike I have posted here in PBH about the same Colombian flowers that killed Colorado's and California's rose production due to the Andean Pact. I lived in Los Angeles in 1993 when DEMOCRAT Bill Clinton signed NAFTA after the unions, who had given Bill mucho dinero, asked him not to do so. "This train will stop in Tucumcari" 0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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Mononoke28 says on Oct 6, 2008, 14:08: Obama is no FDR, that's for sure. But McCain is another Bush. I'd rather have the former. Diana 1 funny, 0 helpful. |
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sanandressi says on Oct 6, 2008, 14:11: Miamimike, the DEMOCRAT party wants every factory shut down in this country that emits any form of pollution and that puts UNION workers on "Main street" as Obama says. "This train will stop in Tucumcari" 0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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miamimike says on Oct 6, 2008, 14:29: Mononoke28 says on Oct 6, 2008, 14:08 (today): flag Avatar Legend: Bush "If any of you Reporters are wondering, it was a Size 10" 0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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miamimike says on Oct 6, 2008, 14:45: sanandressi says on Oct 6, 2008, 14:11 (today): flag Avatar Legend: Bush "If any of you Reporters are wondering, it was a Size 10" 0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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rocinante says on Oct 6, 2008, 15:34: So you kids still think the US president runs the US? He he he.... "World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Not that the US president actually runs the US." Feb 5, 2008 0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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Simon says on Oct 6, 2008, 15:52: "our US Companies continue to pay hefty Import Tariffs on products sent into Colombia" "DON'T FOK WITH COLOMBIA!!"-----Simon 0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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miamimike says on Oct 6, 2008, 16:34: Simon, I suppose you would be happy if those US companies, Caterpillar, IBM, Compaq ect for instance, went Belly up then Colombia would receive "0" in import taxes AND best of all, there would be less of the dwindling US Workers(read taxpayers) to fund the Monies doled out in Plan Colombia. Would that make you happy? And ultimately it would be another group of potential American Tourists that wouldn't have the money to travel to Colombia bringing with them their tourist Dollars. Again, would this make you happy? Careful of what you wish for goes the old saying,,, Avatar Legend: Bush "If any of you Reporters are wondering, it was a Size 10" 0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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rocinante says on Oct 6, 2008, 19:22: Seriously CAT, IBM and HPQ are going belly up because of the high taxes applied to the Colombian market? "World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Not that the US president actually runs the US." Feb 5, 2008 0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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miamimike says on Oct 6, 2008, 20:26: I didn't say they(IBM, CAT ect) are going belly up, I was using them as unfairly taxed examples for Simon in the Andean trade pact. . , which you correctly identified as hypothetical examples.And yes, I still don't think the Andean Trade pact was/is fair, its a lopsided affair tilted not in our favor even halfway. . I appreciate this being a Colombian Website but when you have a poster such as Simon who never gives the USA and its taxpayers one bit of Credit for the much improved security in Colombia due to Plan Colombia(which was/is subsidized by us taxpayers). The only thing you hear from Simon is Criticism about America and the Americans visisting Colombia, who drop their Tourist dollars into the Col economy. As I say, maybe Simon would be happy if the "Gringos" cancelled their trips. And their Billions in Aid,,,Careful what you wish for ,,,,The Only person I saw who as critical of America was that long departed Crackpot Poster who went by the handle Colombiano-X or some handle similiar to that. Man, was he a Nutcase,,,LOL Avatar Legend: Bush "If any of you Reporters are wondering, it was a Size 10" 0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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Simon says on Oct 6, 2008, 20:31: Miamimike, I do appreciate the change Plan Colombia has helped to bring about to Colombia. But I do not think it is just plain charity out of the good hearts of US altruism like you would have us believe! "DON'T FOK WITH COLOMBIA!!"-----Simon 0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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rocinante says on Oct 6, 2008, 20:34: Mike every nickel spent by the US for plan Colombia comes back to the US dressed up as a dollar. "World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Not that the US president actually runs the US." Feb 5, 2008 0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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miamimike says on Oct 6, 2008, 20:35: I think since we brough it up, you probably felt like after the fact you had to make a comment.I sincerely doubt you would have said anything positive otherwise,,,. Avatar Legend: Bush "If any of you Reporters are wondering, it was a Size 10" 0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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rocinante says on Oct 6, 2008, 20:53: Mike I'm not really sure who 'We', and 'You' are but I'll let you and Simon alone to your debate. "World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Not that the US president actually runs the US." Feb 5, 2008 0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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miamimike says on Oct 6, 2008, 21:42: Mike every nickel spent by the US for plan Colombia comes back to the US dressed up as a dollar. Avatar Legend: Bush "If any of you Reporters are wondering, it was a Size 10" 0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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mariacvetanoski says on Oct 7, 2008, 07:19: agree with you on that one MIKE! Be greatful for everything you get no matter how small!! Save the street children of Colombia Now!! 0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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rocinante says on Oct 7, 2008, 08:05: If plan Colombia goes so what? Practically two thirds of the money goes back to the US defense contractors and to protect the pipelines. Yes the money is nice but the average person on the street will only be affected by budget reshuffle if the plan gets cut. The military will need more funding. From where? I don't know but as long as Venezuela is next door and as long as Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina and soon Bolivia are out of the IMF, the US will continue Plan Colombia, regardless of the US economy. 820 million a year is nothing for the US. Israel gets a few billion year, Afghanistan gets over a billion and those are not going anywhere either. "World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Not that the US president actually runs the US." Feb 5, 2008 0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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Simon says on Oct 7, 2008, 18:53: "I think since we brough it up, you probably felt like after the fact you had to make a comment.I sincerely doubt you would have said anything positive otherwise,,,." "DON'T FOK WITH COLOMBIA!!"-----Simon 0 funny, 0 helpful. |
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Dolfi says on Oct 9, 2008, 06:28: Agood article in "El País" from Madrid:
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corporalgator (☼Travelguide writer) says on Oct 10, 2008, 13:12: When was this article written? It says that oil prices aren't likely to drop any time soon but they are at $80 a barrel and falling, $60 below the peak of just a few months ago. Chavez and Russia are both being hurt by that severely.
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U.S.-Colombia Trade Agreement Faces Uncertain Future 7
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