The Next President of Colombia?

gorgonabob says on Apr 19, 2007, 15:41:

i dont know who the next one will be... but i think its safe to say that the one after the next could/ should well be either the current mayor of medellin, sergio fajardo or governor of antioquia, anibal gaviria. both enjoy up to 90% support from there respective regions...

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Miguel_Clavo says on Apr 19, 2007, 16:28:

If Ingrid is released, do you think her "celebrity" status be a credible factor, similar in the way the recent FARC escapee found himself in a high lever government post soon after his escape?

Just my opinion...

Miguel_Clavo =)..aka, DragonSlayer...Colombia es pasión!

"F.A.R.C..S.U.C.K.S"

"I would rather die living life, than to live a dying life."........ Oh, and my PM is always ON. Great Bumper Sticker: "Home of the Free, Because of the Brave"

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juancegomez says on Apr 19, 2007, 19:39:

It's very, very hard to say at this point. So I won't speculate about it just yet.

I'll only comment a bit about Ingrid. She might conceivably do well, but that depends entirely on the circumstances of her release and what positions she publicly assumes.

Still, I must caution that her international popularity is not equivalent to her Colombian one.

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Mr. Hollywood says on Apr 19, 2007, 20:31:

Ingrid? No way. She'd stand a better chance getting elected Prime Minister of France.

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juancegomez says on Apr 19, 2007, 20:32:

That's almost a popular joke around here But I wouldn't necessarily rule her out, given the right circumstances.

The world does spin around, you know.

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juancegomez says on Apr 20, 2007, 09:48:

ocampo I definitely doubt that myself, but your mileage may vary.

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platano says on Apr 20, 2007, 10:21:

Uribe could go for a third term It would require changing the rules a little... but they already did that once to allow for a second Uribe term.

I think Uribe could win a third term, if he wants it. People love him. He has made Colombia "safer". (unless you happen to be involved with human rights work or you happen to be concerned about organized labor or ...)plátano

plátano

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juancegomez says on Apr 20, 2007, 10:54:

platano It's not impossible, but very unlikely.

Uribe himself has ruled out that possibility, but even if he weren't telling the truth, the fact is that too many prominent "Uribistas" have presidential aspirations of their own that they aren't going to put on hold indefinitely (including German Vargas Lleras and Juan Manuel Santos, to name just two).

So unless that change is actually made, the signs are pointing against it.

Heck, you could even argue that the "parapolitics" scandal also makes it difficult.

"People love him. He has made Colombia "safer". (unless you happen to be involved with human rights work or you happen to be concerned about organized labor or ...)"

The curious but still important thing you seem to omit is that, in fact, the murders of those groups and other opposition outlets/outfits have decreased. Even the AFL-CIO, which receives information from its Colombian counterparts (and they are not pro-Uribe, as you know), has grudgingly admitted that in some of the documents it has posted online. Not without additional criticism, as murders still happen and that deserves more attention than it gets, but that's that.

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Simon says on Apr 20, 2007, 16:17:

Here are who I think are Colombia's strongest possible candidates:


Sergio Farjardo - Mayor of Medellin

German Vargas Lleras - Senator

Juan Manuel Santos - Defense Minister

Francisco Santos - Vice-President

Fernando Araujo - Foreign Minister

Enrique Peñalosa - Former mayor of Bogotá


To tell you guys the truth, I like all of these guys, I'd vote for any one of them, yes, even the Vice-Prez.

"DON'T FOK WITH COLOMBIA!!"-----Simon

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Sr Tertius says on Apr 21, 2007, 12:04:

Candidates I wouldn't mind Sergio Fajardo or Antanas Mockus as president. Peñalosa was a fantastic mayor, but his national agenda--he's made it public a few times--is... well... wacky. Anybody firmly aligned with the Uribe--particularly the Santos bros--will never get my support. Vargas Lleras and Pardo Rueda are the sane options from the center-right. Navarro is running for governor of Nariño, so he is out of the race, I guess. So my vote will probably go to Carlos Gaviria. I wonder if Gustavo Petro will run on PDA primaries? or Jorge Robledo? It's really way to early to tell. Plenty of potential candidates, though.

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

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Miguel_Clavo says on Apr 21, 2007, 12:18:

It will be interesting in how the individual camps will align themselves, and who will be the handpicked one by Uribe....i just hope it does not turn out to be a simple popularity contest or name-recognition contest like the US....

Just my opinion...

Miguel_Clavo =)..aka, DragonSlayer...Colombia es pasión!

"F.A.R.C..S.U.C.K.S"

"I would rather die living life, than to live a dying life."........ Oh, and my PM is always ON. Great Bumper Sticker: "Home of the Free, Because of the Brave"

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Sr Tertius says on Apr 21, 2007, 12:46:

Talking about Uribe handpicking someone Note that Uribe's charisma, for whatever it's worth, has not been effectively transferred to his allies. For example, Juan Lozano had all the support of the president to run as mayor of Bogota, and he didn't get shit. Unless you are in the closest circle of the president, however popular he may be, it is actually not so cool anymore to be affiliated with him politically. Thus, unless Uribe tries and succeeds in running for a third term (*chills down my spine*) it is quite likely that Colombia will move politically in a new direction. Nothing like Venezuela, Bolivia, or Ecuador though, I think, because Colombia's institutions work at a very different pace. I think the model may be more similar to Brazil, Chile, or Uruguay.

Then again, it's too early to say.

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

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Miguel_Clavo says on Apr 21, 2007, 12:49:

If Uribe does not arrange for a 3rd term, can he sit out and return later?

Just my opinion...

Miguel_Clavo =)..aka, DragonSlayer...Colombia es pasión!

"F.A.R.C..S.U.C.K.S"

"I would rather die living life, than to live a dying life."........ Oh, and my PM is always ON. Great Bumper Sticker: "Home of the Free, Because of the Brave"

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Sr Tertius says on Apr 21, 2007, 13:01:

He could But then he would hardly be re-elected. Following a long standing Colombian tradition, he has been somewhat successful in precluding any connection between him and all the corruption going on in his government. If he steps down, even for a second, I'm confident that all the connections will become public (another long standing Colombian tradition, critical to our democratic system: The rearview mirror tactic) but by that time he will be ambassador in Moscow and he will simply deny those frivolous accusations, and that'd be it. But no more presidency.

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

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Sr Tertius says on Apr 21, 2007, 22:27:

Peñalosa Rubito: I can't find that damned essay Peñalosa wrote a few years ago. I must admit I strongly admired him and his insistence on the identification of democracy with public (goods, space, transportation, etc.) Then he wrote this wacky essay were he dreamt of a future Colombia pretty much controlled by private foreign corporations bringing a "brave new world" sort of paradise. Then came his support for Uribe during his race for the Senate. I'm reading him again, and he sounds very reasonable on urban growth and management, even backtracking on some ideas, like the "metro de cercanias", which he initially deemed demagogic. I wouldn't mind him again as a mayor of Bogotá, but as president... there are better candidates.

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

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billyb says on Apr 21, 2007, 22:43:

I agree with Sr. T. regarding Uribe losing... some of his coattails with all the recent allegations, even if that's all they are at the moment.

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