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The Economist: Colombia's resilient economy. No recession here

Oct 15th 2009

WHEN the figures are finally tallied, Colombia may prove to have weathered the world recession better than any other of the larger Latin American countries. After a slight contraction at the end of 2008, the economy has been growing modestly this year. This resilience stems from continued foreign investment, an increase in government spending on public works and easier money: since December the central bank has cut interest rates by six percentage points, to 4%, a steeper drop than anywhere in the region outside Chile.

But recovery risks being almost as gentle as the downturn. Whereas Brazil is bouncing back strongly (see article), Colombia can expect growth of just 2.5% next year and 3% in 2011, reckons Óscar Zuluaga, the finance minister. Whereas Brazil, Chile and Peru benefit from China’s hunger for commodities, Colombia’s exporters face difficulties. Their biggest market, the United States, is depressed; Venezuela and Ecuador, which take many of their manufactures, have imposed trade barriers.

Even so, Colombia’s economy has dramatically improved in recent years. President Álvaro Uribe’s security policies have helped to restore confidence. Investment soared, from 15% of GDP in 2002 to 26% last year, says Mr Zuluaga. Private business has retooled. After many delays, the government has issued licences to expand several ports; this month it hopes to award a contract for the first of four big road schemes, costing a total of $7.5 billion over four years. It hopes for investment of up to $50 billion in mining and oil over the next decade.

Indeed Colombian officials, like their counterparts in Brazil, worry that a big increase in commodity exports will strengthen the currency (which has already risen sharply against the dollar) and hurt local manufacturers. They are thinking about setting up a Chilean-style offshore stabilisation fund in which to park some of the commodity revenues.

That is a nice problem to have. Others are more humdrum. Both unemployment (12%) and the poverty rate (46%) are above the regional average. Mr Zuluaga says that is because more women work, and the national poverty line is higher than elsewhere. Maybe, but the next president, due to be elected in May, will struggle to generate the feel-good factor that Mr Uribe has enjoyed.

http://www.economist.com/world/americas/displayStory.cfm?story_id=1464...

By tasco66 on Oct 15, 2009, 11:27 in Friendly Talkzone.

El Expatriado says on Oct 15, 2009, 15:17:

Its all relative. No recession in Chad, either.

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Cheers Terry says on Oct 15, 2009, 15:26:

Bingo.

Cheers,
Terry

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tasco66 says on Oct 15, 2009, 15:28:

"Its all relative"

Exactly:

"Colombia may prove to have weathered the world recession better than any other of the larger Latin American countries."

That's what makes it so outstanding.

The trouble with free elections is, you never know who is going to win (Leonid Brezhnev)

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Cheers Terry says on Oct 15, 2009, 15:38:

So on a planet with almost 200 nations they're weathering it better than a handful of other big Latin countries?

Okay, I get it...

Cheers,
Terry

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wendell13 says on Oct 15, 2009, 17:04:

According to the Banco de la Republica's website the first two quarters in 2009, Colombian GDP was negative. The website does not have the 3rd quarter data posted yet.

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makopp5 (☼Travelguide writer) says on Oct 15, 2009, 17:09:

wendell the 3rd quarter is much better. And 4th is also getting better. Our sales are getting better every month.

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wendell13 says on Oct 15, 2009, 17:10:

Good, I hope so.

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tasco66 says on Oct 16, 2009, 05:44:

"So on a planet with almost 200 nations they're weathering it better than a handful of other big Latin countries?"

Well compared to Euro countries that shrunk as much as 22.4%, Colombia comes out way ahead.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=acYA7iUFXBro

The trouble with free elections is, you never know who is going to win (Leonid Brezhnev)

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bam m says on Oct 17, 2009, 21:54:

There are severe problems in colombia with the recession....we've seen 3 electrical supply stores close...workers coming back to our sites for work as they have lost their jobs....and so much wood in buenaventura...that has not been bought...that they are calling us to see if we want to buy more....

dropping price of granadillo from 2400 cop per inch to 2000....and free delivery ....

they feel it..no doubt....and i'm glad...all that colombian pride has taken a hit like the rest of the world....

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La_Huella says on Oct 18, 2009, 01:07:

Doesn't look so bad from where I'm standing. The biggest problem in Bogota is that the mayor is an absolute joke and needs to be lynched SLOWLY.

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romy says on Oct 18, 2009, 01:56:

of course increased poverty has nothing to do with the deterioration of Bogota eh Huella

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makopp5 (☼Travelguide writer) says on Oct 18, 2009, 04:24:

If there are stupid users, yes it helps that the downturns are not so strong, but on the otherside it costs a lot of money to fight the drugtraffic too.

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bam m says on Oct 18, 2009, 19:40:

coke is 38% down thank god.....i hope they all die form snorting the blanco.....bunch of fucking low lifes..that need a bullet in the head... druggies should all die a horrible death of SIV...

god willing !!!

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La_Huella says on Oct 18, 2009, 20:23:

Romy I have a problem with your fake rhetorical question....

I have been very clear on this.... crime is up in this city because we have a fucking idiot from the Polo as mayor who has the police running around worrying about insignificant bullshit and leaving the streets to the human rats that need to be EXTERMINATED.

People aren't robbing people in Bogota because they need the money to eat... that is A BUNCH OF FUCKING BULLSHIT. People here rob people for money to buy drugs and putas. These people are 15 16 and 17 year old kids and half of them are from Estrato 3 UPWARDS. Some of them are even from Estratos 5 and 6!!! The crime wave here in BOG has NOTHING NOTHING NOTHING to do with poverty. Anybody who belives that is an absolute imbecile!!!!

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romy says on Oct 18, 2009, 21:15:

hahaha you are right the biggest thieves in Colombia are estrato 6, but then again I don't think that's what you are talking about...
I'm curious though, what "insignificant bullshit" are the police involved with?

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bam m says on Oct 18, 2009, 21:40:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQhFRyfWZUA

j3t needs to wast those druggies....every one...of those low life, scum...smoke your pot, do your blow,, shoot the H...and do the ice....i hope everyone of you dies and cleanses our planet....asap...

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La_Huella says on Oct 18, 2009, 21:41:

Noise complaints, seat belt violations, riding a bike without a helmet, closing bars for technicalities, stupid stuff like that. Anything that draws a fine and makes the city money, instead of actually putting the police to protect people.

Stop pretending to be an idiot, I'm talking about kids with knives and razors mugging people on the street here. I'm not talking about adults here, I'm talking about high school kids.

If Peñalosa were mayor, we would NOT have had ANY increase in crime. You can take that to the bank!!!!!

They could also bring crime down by lowering the age of mayority to 16. That way they could charge these kids as adults and put them away properly when they are caught. That would help. Also, Bogota is due for another big social cleansing. They need to grab several hundred of these little punks pile them up douse them with gasoline and make a big human bonfire. THAT would make a positive difference, and pinchos off of the 1 de mayo would be real cheap for a couple of weeks :)

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bam m says on Oct 18, 2009, 21:46:

pony up...get a gun permit at min...or security division with mini uzi's with 25 clips...full auto...

ethnic clensing.....is coming.....wake up..

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La_Huella says on Oct 18, 2009, 21:48:

Don't want a gun... too much trouble...

I'm too high profile here... I have to let others handle the Rambo shit :P

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bam m says on Oct 18, 2009, 22:11:

ok....yeah

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Lowell says on Oct 19, 2009, 06:22:

If so, then why do I see more people still out of work, shops closing, people spending much less...... These people who report this crap need to get off their butts, go out of their cozy office and get to know what's REALLY happening to the people.

Alfred E. Newman. "What. Me Worry?"

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bam m says on Oct 19, 2009, 13:07:

You got it Lowell..... colombia is done....and a perfect chance to pick up bodegas and edificios...

people dream of the up-side all the time.... and i meet very few people that can write a real check.....bunch of dreamers...

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La_Huella says on Oct 19, 2009, 14:33:

Let's face it, economic conditions here have never been very good outside of Bogota. Here in Bogota, they are holding their own, they aren't super but holding their own. I've been back to NYC twice since moving here, I can SEE the difference.

Regardless of the change of economic conditions, it has NOTHING to do with street crime here.... Go back any amount of years you want, look at the crazy ups and downs and stagnant periods the economy has had and then cross-reference it with crime rates of ANY kind. You will find ZERO correlation.

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makopp5 (☼Travelguide writer) says on Oct 19, 2009, 15:22:

La Huella
here in Medellin the economy is getting much better. Our clients produce more and the payments are getting faster.

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La_Huella says on Oct 19, 2009, 15:24:

Every month is better and better for me too. Our biggest problem, repeat, is this asshole mayor. He's only in office another year anyways... then things can start to skyrocket again...

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