So what will happen now?

Ok, but what next? What has really changed?

The changes I see are that 2 hostages out of approx 700 have been released and Chavez has demonstrated he has some influence on the Farc when he chooses to use it.

As SnT says elsewhere, “So what happens when the media frenzy dies down?�?Are the basic problems really altered? I don’t think so.

Uribe remains confronted by a Farc that he appears unable to eradicate. The reasons for the Farc’s survival appear to have nothing to do with democratic support but rather modern warfare’s continued inability to overcome guerilla tactics.

To my mind, both Uribe and the Farc are, to some extents, in a “no-win�? situation.

A “no-win�? situation for Uribe because the battle is costly and he cannot demonstrate how he would use the money (and the nation’s effort) if it was suddenly available for other purposes. Would he use these prizes to improve everyone’s lot or would it be siphoned off to the rich as the disillusioned would expect? We cannot know….words are cheap.

Similarly, Uribe seems unable to reconcile the apparent wishes of an electorate who have little sympathy with the Farc and an international community who still link his government with a suppression of human rights. Whilst this image prevails outside of Colombia Uribe will be unable to fully use the universal norm of refusing to negotiate with an unelected minority without facing a barrage of international criticism every time the media are able to identify a human interest headline.

But the Farc are in a difficult position also. If they cede to the humanitarian cries of international opinion they will loose the main tool of their survival…..the protection of holding hostages. How many of us would accept the praise of a “good deed�? as adequate recompense for the loss of our life. Not many I expect, quite before any consideration for the loss of “associated earnings�?!

So where can the Farc and Uribe go to from here? I fear the omens are not good.

By fecherklyn on Jan 10, 2008, 17:56 in Politics & the war.

Putukusi says on Jan 10, 2008, 18:16:

If Chavez had any real influence I think he'd be able to get the American hostages out. Not that he would really want to, but it could be a political victory for him to do what the US government hasn't done or been able to do. I'm sure that if he really could do it he would for that very reason. He's always wanting to put it to Bush and takes every opportunity he can to do it, so why not this one? Because Colombia has FARC and Venezuela has FARCE.

Ride A Happy Skull

bufalo says on Jan 11, 2008, 05:10:

Chavez is buddy-buddy with the FARC, let's face it. He's very much against Uribe and the colombian govt. He only did this to try to make it look to the colombian people that he is better than their own president. Just a political ploy.

oops just read Putuksi's reply, so I guess I second.

"If you don't like it - lump it, take it down the road and dump it." - Archie Bunker played by Carroll O'Connor

SamGompers says on Jan 11, 2008, 06:57:

I think Chavez will work some more with FARC to start releasing more hostages. His electoral failure last year has made him more politically vulnerable at home and tarnished his international reputation. Of course, now that he's got Ollie Stone working for him - - we may see the total capitulation of FARC, eradication of coca, and 30 straight days of warm, sunshine in Bogota - - all captured on film!

The neutralization of FARC remains a big problem for Uribe. As the Tupac Katari (Bolivia), Montoneros (Argentina), Tupac Amaru (Peru), Sendero Luminoso (Peru) movements and groups et al. illustrate, there is no single model for neutralizing insurgencies. Political drama in Colombia, however, can only continue to help Chavez in Venezuela.

goin_south says on Jan 21, 2008, 21:41:

'two hostages have been released'... but,... I think likely now, they are Chavez's hostages.
They have not been 'released', to go back to Colombia, have they?

and, thank you.