Shrinking Peso!

gorgonabob says on Mar 22, 2007, 15:15:

heh there any chance you can get the cricket world cup streaming live... will be quite happy to splash out a few bucks if money is a problem

kelvin
blacksheep

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bradenmiami says on Mar 22, 2007, 15:24:

Waiting... Shit... I am waiting to send my mother-in-law some money for old bills when I moved back here, and trying NOT to look like a cheapskate, but these f-ing exchange rates are sucking more by the day!

What would you say are the top 3 reasons for such a downturn right now? It is the lowest it has been in years!!!!

The "lovemedellin website" is a piece of crap made by some moron who has only been to Medellin once...you'd be better off reading the Lonely Planet advice from a guy who never even came here!

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Colombiano_81 says on Mar 22, 2007, 16:50:

treat mil pesos like a buck, 5mil like 5 bucks, 20mil is 20 bucks and so on.

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gorgonabob says on Mar 22, 2007, 17:51:

the peso is not per say strong.. its the american economy.. its a basket case. and while it remains a basket case the dollar aint going up.... you cant continue to spend hundreds of billions more than you earn year after year and expect the currency not to go down..

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mariluzcol says on Mar 22, 2007, 18:47:

In Colombia we know why the peso gets stronger. #1--No T.L.C deal yet.
#2--A.U.C false demobilize in May 2006.
#3-- Arauyo family making headlines.
#4-- Uribe and his elite dumped dollars,when last May when they where still getting 2,600 pesos Col to $1.00 and now its $2.150 to $1.00
#5-- How much was the cocaine worth siezed by the D.E.A off Panamas coast this past week.
#6-- What has Uribe and his elite been doing with the gold fields this past month.
#7--No firm assurance of big Plan Colombia from Washington.
#8--Colombia the last year selling of more and more homes and land to people in the EEUU and other country's and all priced in pesos Col.
#9-- Look at the pesos Col when Uribe was Gov and Mayor in Medellin.
#10--Bush and others could make Colombia answer to the suspect peso gain,just like Argentina had to,but wont as Nestle and Drummond all pay in Dollar deals not Pesos and they Bush's friends would lose money.-----------But hey Uribe is King as he does have a 70% approval but that poll was only taken from the elite classes and no one making less then $2,000,000. pesos a month.The world thinks dont disrupt the pesos gain and make the Colombians sell more cocaine.Think who grew up with Uribe,think what was his Father tied into,what has the Araujo family not had their hand in,they are and have always have their hands in any money making project in Colombia.If your waiting and hoping the dollar to rise VS. pesos Col,think what was the rate last May 2006 =2,600 to $1.00 dollar.I think you will be waiting and hoping a long long time. it has gained 500 pesos in less than 10 months- gone are the days of 3,000 to $1.00 and soon to come the days of 1,500 to $1.00. The people I know have closed thier citibank dollar direct deposits from EEUU,they all want pesos pesos and are active buying more of them.

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coffee beaner says on Mar 22, 2007, 23:32:

Just with this I can see you Just with this statement I'm not going to take you seriously "that poll was only taken from the elite classes and no one making less then $2,000,000. pesos a month" .... well half of my family in Colombia make less then 500k a month and they all voted for Uribe. Don't just throw stuff out and assume something, you might hate Uribe and all but the country is better because of him, like it or not buddy!

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poco says on Mar 23, 2007, 03:35:

Don't worry - Some brains are permanent press Don't just throw stuff out and assume something, you might hate Uribe and all but the country is better because of him, like it or not buddy!

When your brain is wash and wear it is easy to believe others will have the same affliction.

The repetitive posting of biased opinions concerning a singular topic such as kidnapping foreigners, safety or the value of the peso are not statements of a view but statements revealing an illness. This is doubly true when the statements are diametrically opposed to the current facts and conditions. It is not clear whether these people are crying out for treatment or wish others to reside in their make believe asylum. Clearly this is an attempt to connect fact with fiction and and it would be better their time was spent writing a book titled Harry Potter and the Bloody Colombian Conspiracy.

"When you men get home and face an anti-war protester, look him in the eyes and shake his hand. Then, wink at his girlfriend, because she knows she's dating a pussy." Quote - General Tommy Franks

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spigrimace says on Mar 23, 2007, 05:28:

Gorgonabob-world cup cricket I stream it free from the links at: http://www.myp2p.eu/Other.htm
then if it gets too loaded up and doesn´t stream well, one can buy it with good quality at: http://www.livesportson.tv/Stream.asp

it starts 8:30am Colombia time every morning so far. I´m open for breakfast 7am monday thru friday, so just stop by. If you want to stop by on a saturday or sunday morning to watch it, call me the night b4 at 3434343 to let me know to open up a little earlier as we usually start mopping the place up at 9:30am on the weekends.

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nick b. says on Mar 23, 2007, 05:35:

D.G. I agree with you,the dollar is far under its valeu (thanks to Bush).

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Brians says on Mar 23, 2007, 05:48:

The Peso is really frustrating me I expected a economic slowdown and thought that the Peso would weaken as such because it is a much more cyclical economy. Anyway I have been wrong so far. At least Uribe is now concerned about the Peso's strength and is allowing the Goverments Pensions to buy dollars. He made this recommendation yesterday as the Peso have been killing the Colombian Farmers. They were having enough trouble last year and were saved by the dollar rally. Now they are really sweating it again. The Peso stays here the Agricultural economy of Colombia will be lost to Asia and the USA.

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poco says on Mar 23, 2007, 07:34:

I'd be more concerned with inflation. It really is hurting the farmers

I don't see the farmers being hurt. I live in the middle of FARMERS. There is NOTHING BUT farmers. Farmers are HAPPY with the current conditions. I think you might be refering to exporters?

Inflation started getting worse at the end of 2006 and continues. The girl I'm with bought three chickens, which is normal, but ONE ROOSTER !!! The parrot loved clucking like a chicken, now he crows like a rooster, great.

Anyway, a flat of 30 eggs cost $5,000 COP or LESS three years ago. Latest cost $8,500. So, three chickens = 3 eggs a day or 3 flats per month. Feed costs 2,000 pesos a kilo or roughly 10,000 pesos a month cost of ownership. Three flats of eggs directly out of the chickens ass cost 10,000 pesos vrs. 25,000 if purchased. A net savings of 15,000 per month. Plus you can eat the chickens someday.

Luckily I don't live in a condo and can survive off the land. The chickens are happy living in the back 40 under the coca tree.

A bunch of happy cluckers living in Colombia.

"When you men get home and face an anti-war protester, look him in the eyes and shake his hand. Then, wink at his girlfriend, because she knows she's dating a pussy." Quote - General Tommy Franks

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gringolondinense says on Mar 23, 2007, 07:50:

I think the tourist industry is suffering a bit in the US, now people have to give fingerprints etc when they arrive. Clearing customs and immigration is a bit of a nightmare. I think it's putting people off.

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Brians says on Mar 23, 2007, 08:04:

My wife's family own a Banana Exporting Company Her cousin who runs the company told me last year they were losing their shirts and the Peso was 2200 and change at the time. Then it ran up and I think it provided relief. However I have been even scared to ask him about business. The margins are tight enough without getting squeezed on currency. Now multiply this through the flower industry and OH YEAH how about that Trade Agreement with the US awaiting approval in Congress. The US Poultry and Ag Farmers are going to own the Colombian market. Believe me Uribe knows this. This is not good for a emerging country. If China's currency ran like this their economy would be in shambles right now.

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poco says on Mar 23, 2007, 08:28:

Look elsewhere not the entire problem more expensive than I pay in an upscale grocery store in a medium-large U.S. city.

It's really inexpensive in Colombia. NOT.

I said the farmers are not being hurt. You’ve changed the subject. I’d like to know if you think they are being hurt or not?

DG it is not necessarily true about your scenario. Number one the farmers can purchase much needed equipment such as tractors, trucks, irrigation implements. Not to mention processing facilities. Humm, I wonder where I'd spend my pesos? Maybe purchase a John Deere tractor from the U.S. or a BM (Big Mother?) from Sweden?



There IS A MARKET in Colombia for much of their products. Please understand that almost ALL of Colombian products are exported if they can get MORE. More, that means,, well, more. Do you really think Colombians get the BEST of anything if it can be exported for MORE money ? No,, sorry, things don't work that way.

Why the inflation? I haven't studied why. Maybe things like corn prices used for feed are higher. I love this. Now that crops like corn are slated to be used as a substitute for gasoline the price is now at the highest level ever. Forget the chickens, lets make gas.

I've noticed the Europeans talk the talk but they don't walk the walk. They have NO PROBLEM in the attempt to modify Colombia, including the political system to suit their vision. I wonder what they want in exchange for being fair?

March 22 (Bloomberg) -- Colombia, the world's third-biggest banana shipper, filed a new World Trade Organization complaint against European rules that it says discriminate against exports of the fruit, prolonging a 12-year-old fight.

"When you men get home and face an anti-war protester, look him in the eyes and shake his hand. Then, wink at his girlfriend, because she knows she's dating a pussy." Quote - General Tommy Franks

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spigrimace says on Mar 23, 2007, 10:09:

Brians, I had a conversation with 2 gringos last night One who wants to bring his retirement money down here and the other wants to buy a 200 millones apartmnent in Poblado.

They are both at wits end about the FX rate.

I said this: why not send a little money every 1 to 2 months to average cost in. It would be just like a Dividend Reinvestment Plan.

The one buying the apartment said his Colombian attorney, whom I´ve met and respect, said oh, the government will intercede and the peso will lose strength, Just wait a little. But I heard and acted against that same advice from a different source when I sent my nest egg down in August 2004. I remember when it "tanked" in 2004 (ja ja ja looking back) from 2800 to 2650 and I pushed all-in at 2650. Would have lost big if I listened to the just wait for the government advice.

But let´s be real about what really big export is from here. I don´t like to say it, but I see them everyday and the product is just like tobacco or alcohol. (I forget the economic term) Where you can double the price but you may only lose a few percentage of the consumers. So will the FX really hurt these guys?

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Boatygringo says on Mar 23, 2007, 11:46:

Shrinking Peso Next time you go to the ATM to get Pesos notice how much it costs you in Dollars, it`s not the peso that went up it`s the Dollar that went down and the smart money say`s it will keep on going down uless the USA stops printing worthless paper that is backed by nothing, but a prommis to pay. Buy Gold boys and girls it not only has actual value it is also a good hedge against a world wide depression. Boatygringo

Boatygringo

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poco says on Mar 23, 2007, 11:49:

Most don't understand Where you can double the price but you may only lose a few percentage of the consumers. So will the FX really hurt these guys?

No it won't. Neither the average Colombian nor U.S. citizen thinks about exchange rates. They think about how much they make and what they spend (or borrowing more) and not much else.

Did Brians read this day old article I posted above?
Today's request for WTO arbitration by Colombia starts a fresh challenge to a 176-euro ($234) per metric ton tariff that the 27-nation EU started applying to banana imports of the fruit from Latin America last year.

Could this have a bearing on the situation? I'm not sure but this seems to be a strictly "REVENUE TARIFF". Someone needs to pay this TARIFF (TAX) to help support their governments. Why not make the guys growing produce suffer so they can have 3 month paid sabbaticals in Colombia?

DG: The farmers are not hurting. Why would you think this? When you make a statement like this it makes me question your other opinions, especially when you elaborate on facts most folks have known for 30 years.

"When you men get home and face an anti-war protester, look him in the eyes and shake his hand. Then, wink at his girlfriend, because she knows she's dating a pussy." Quote - General Tommy Franks

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poco says on Mar 23, 2007, 13:57:

You just said though that You just said though that the farmers you know even are getting hit with inflation.

No. I said commodities (eggs) are experiencing a huge price increase inside Colombia. I posted something similar several months ago and if I remember correctly you were seeing the same thing in Bogota.

Well, it's getting worse and obviously the price increases are being passed on. This inflation is being absorbed by the populace. You've got to eat and drink water. My guess is these simple things are up at least 10% in the last 4 months.

This absolutely is NOT a few isolated items or persons. I'd think this is country wide and something NOT GOOD will happen if and when the official inflation rate is shown to be above the high end target of (I think) 5 percent. I believe Colombia has high interest rates now, going up or going down?

It seems many believe flowers, bananas’ and clothes have some sort of major presence in Colombia. Wrong ! I think reading this 1.5 meg pdf report made in 2004 should help.

Most of these exports should have NO problem with price increases.

Textiles manufacturing left the U.S. 20+ years ago. U.C.'s wife worked in that Colombian "industry" and I remember reading it was LOW PAY and she was a university graduate. What’s the plan? Return to child labor and sweat shops?

One last item is Guadua. I can't find the current export data but I know it is almost impossible to purchase construction grade. I believe it is common knowledge in Colombia that it is all cut, dried and loaded in containers for export. Something else the WORLD is willing to acquire. Guess what? there are quite a few "Guadua Farms" and I'm sure there will be more.

Guadua is "state controlled" so I'd imagine there will be a "delay" for new growers. Seems guadua is an enviromental concern. I'm sure a few tree huggers can wrap their arms around a stalk of guadua.

This is master thesis PDF document about Guadua (with lots of nice pictures) written in 2005 Guy is probably deranged because he lives in the netherlands.

Shocking

"When you men get home and face an anti-war protester, look him in the eyes and shake his hand. Then, wink at his girlfriend, because she knows she's dating a pussy." Quote - General Tommy Franks

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robi666 says on Mar 23, 2007, 14:25:

And Teak... They simply do not work with teak. Sometimes, in farms, they use it for construction... figure it out! All teak (and balsam) is loaded and exported to US and Europe.
Well, I cut down some teak trees in my farm, and carried to Santa Marta. They are making some furnitures out of it.
Labour cost for this 2,740 USD bed is 400mil!
But I had to buy a sawing disk from Germany (200 Euros) for them, and explain how to glue it!
Let's see how it come out...
Hey Poco, when are we going to Cali to drill some walls there? There must be a lot of money left...
what we do in life... echoes in eternity.

"I am a citizen of the most beautiful nation on earth. A nation whose laws are harsh yet simple, a nation that never cheats, which is immense and without borders, where life is lived in the present."

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gorgonabob says on Mar 23, 2007, 15:15:

colombia pesos has appreciated a lot less against the dollar than the currency of new zealand or australia for example.. and new zealands economy is a lot more dependent on agriculture than the Colombian one. New Zealand is the worlds largest exporter of milk powder and the dollar has gone from 40 cents US to 71 cents at present.. a much bigger hit than the change in the Colombian peso.... Warren Buffet made big dollars lately betting against the US peso, betting on its demise.. I understand he is unwinding a lot of those postitions now though.. Go the peso...

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poco says on Mar 25, 2007, 01:04:

Is the dollar high ? One of the main reasons I like reading this site are all the different topics discussed. Many I have not heard of others are news to me and still others require further research. I rarely research in Colombia. 56K is slow. Plus I like to build things and rest up looking for new cell phone holders.

The Buffet story is one needing research. Buffet was reported to make currency “bets” to cover the repatriated profits of his businesses.

Why? The man backs up his convictions and he thought the dollar would GO DOWN. Buffet wanted to “hedge his bets” with currency plays. Now it looks like the strategy is to purchase companies in foreign countries. I think the company in Israel was a 4 Billion dollar bet.

I guess he believes there won’t be a nuclear war and was probably comforted to hear Israel has “Bunker Buster Nukes”.

Buffet Annual Reports are an interesting read.

This is an excerpt from his 2006 report. He has made some money but when you invest 10 to 60 Billion you’re loss or profit will be huge.

We’ve come close to eliminating our direct foreign-exchange position, from which we realized about $186 million in pre-tax profits in 2006 (earnings that were included in the Finance and Financial Products table shown earlier). That brought our total gain since inception of this position in 2002 to $2.2 billion. Here’s a breakdown by currency:

Total Gain (Loss) in Millions
Australian dollar $247.1 Mexican peso $106.1
British pound 287.2 New Zealand dollar 102.6
Canadian dollar 398.3 Singapore dollar (2.6)
Chinese yuan (12.7) South Korean won 261.3
Euro 839.2 Swiss franc 9.6
Hong Kong dollar (2.5) Taiwan dollar (45.3)
Japanese yen 1.9 Miscellaneous options 22.9

We’ve made large indirect currency profits as well, though I’ve never tallied the precise amount. For example, in 2002-2003 we spent about $82 million buying – of all things – Enron bonds, some of which were denominated in Euros. Already we’ve received distributions of $179 million from these bonds, and our remaining stake is worth $173 million. That means our overall gain is $270 million, part of which came from the appreciation of the Euro that took place after our bond purchase.

When we first began making foreign exchange purchases, interest-rate differentials between the U.S. and most foreign countries favored a direct currency position. But that spread turned negative in 2005. We therefore looked for other ways to gain foreign-currency exposure, such as the ownership of foreign equities or of U.S. stocks with major earnings abroad. The currency factor, we should emphasize, is not dominant in our selection of equities, but is merely one of many considerations.

Colombia has several decisions. Straighten up their act and attract continuing investment or become a recipient of aid from the Bill Gates / Warren Buffet foundation.

"When you men get home and face an anti-war protester, look him in the eyes and shake his hand. Then, wink at his girlfriend, because she knows she's dating a pussy." Quote - General Tommy Franks

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podborski says on Mar 25, 2007, 16:31:

Buffett is wrong! I'm pretty sure the low was 41 for the dow in, oh, I think July 1932 for some reason.

jejeje Sorry to be a smart ass. Buffett is very smart, very witty and well worth listening to.

If only I had bought those Berkshire shares at $1800 in 1984 when I first heard about him...sigh....

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miamimike says on Mar 26, 2007, 00:32:

Until China Truly frees its Yen and Lets it Float against World Currencies,countries like Colombia, USA will continue to have problems.How can you compete against a 800 pound Gorilla like China when your hands are tied behind your back figuratively speaking,,,until China rectifies this problem and levels the playing field, it will continue to rack up massive trade imbalances it is favor all the while other countries are losing their Industries as in Col(textiles, shoes, soon cut flowers). Then comes the day when China controls everything and what happens??? Look at the Massive industrial loss already here in the USA(shipbuilding, machine tools,steel,Textiles, Automotive, foundries,ect. Look at the Container Port in LA(calif)and all those 1000's of empty containers stacked 10 high; they all carried finished products from China to the USA and on the Container Ships return they essentially Deadheaded back to China with 1/4 of a full load of American Products at best due to the currency imbalance....

"Wait a minute. What did you just say? You're predicting $4-a-gallon gas? That's interesting. I hadn't heard that." -- Feb. 28, 2008 --George W. Bush, Washington, D.C.

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