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Rescue raises question: Will Uribe run again?

BOGOTA, Colombia - President ABy FRANK BAJAK, Associated Press Writer

Alvaro Uribe was master of ceremonies the night Colombian military intelligence agents disguised as humanitarian workers airlifted Ingrid Betancourt and 14 other hostages to freedom.

Elated former captives of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia sat to his right at the news conference. Uribe's top generals lined his left.

The nation — and much of the world — watched, enthralled.

The stunning success of Wednesday's bloodless, U.S.-assisted mission has recharged speculation about a third term for Uribe: Will he try to change the constitution again — which enabled his second term — so he can run in 2010?

The wonkish, diminutive but tirelessly tenacious politician, who turned 56 on Friday and consistently wins approval ratings above 70 percent in opinion surveys, has been cagey on that score.

Those who oppose the idea say it would put him in league with his continental rival, Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, who has been widely branded autocratic for doing his utmost to try to stay president for life.

"Uribe's audacious and take-charge approach has worked, but there may also be a downside if he goes too far in concentrating power. There is reason to be concerned," said Michael Shifter, an analyst with the Washington-based nonpartisan think tank Inter-American Dialogue.

But whether he tries to extend his rule, there is no denying that Uribe got an astronomical political boost from the operation in which undercover soldiers tricked Latin America's last major rebel army into handing over Betancourt, three U.S. military contractors and 11 soldiers and police.

The breathtaking rescue at least temporarily eclipsed troubling questions about the legitimacy of his 2006 re-election.

On Thursday, the day after the rescue, the Constitutional Court turned down a Supreme Court request to review the 2005 legislative process that paved the way for Uribe's second term.

The Supreme Court had ruled on June 26 that Uribe aides bribed a congresswoman for her swing vote on the legislation. Uribe, who denies any wrongdoing in the matter, raised eyebrows when he immediately — and impetuously, some say — announced his decision to seek a referendum allowing a repeat of the 2006 election.

Such a referendum will almost certainly not happen.

Uribe has long been at odds with the Supreme Court, which has vigorously prosecuted close allies of the president — including his second cousin — for allegedly colluding with right-wing death squads. One in 10 Colombian congressmen are in prison in that scandal.

Remarkably, Uribe has been little hurt by it.

Some analysts think the president, whose rancher father was killed by the FARC rebels in a botched 1983 kidnapping, isn't as much interested in re-election as in preserving what's called "Uribismo."

Roughly translated, "Uribismo" is allegiance to the free market and, most of all, to annihilating the 44-year-old insurgency without concessions.

In the eyes of the vast majority of his countrymen, the successful hostage-rescue mission vindicated this hard-line strategy against the rebels.

Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos — who was deeply involved in the mission — is widely mentioned as a potential successor to Uribe who would maintain the withering military campaign that has thrown the FARC into disarray.

Betancourt, who was kidnapped while running against Uribe in 2002, is probably the only candidate who could defeat the president if he seeks re-election.

But does she plan to run?

She hasn't said.

Is she a rival or an ally?

Too early to tell.

The day of her rescue, Betancourt praised Uribe's leadership. And the FARC's cruel treatment of her — keeping her in chains 24 hours a day for three full years — makes her unlikely to favor rapprochement with the rebels.

But she is still a wild card: She made a name for herself as a senator in the 1990s when she denounced the widespread drug-trafficking-related corruption that was sullying Congress. Her actions provoked death threats that forced Betancourt to send her children abroad.

And then there is the question of how long Uribe — or a successor — could keep up Colombia's costly war on the FARC, which depends greatly on U.S. support.

As yet unknown is whether the U.S. president who is elected in November will modify aid — about US$600 million annually since 2000 — amid a recession that appears now to have reached Colombia, where growth is easing and prices are rising.

"It's very possible peace negotiations would again become a necessity because continuing to invest 5 percent of GDP (gross domestic product) won't be easy in a recession," said Leon Valencia, a top Colombian political analyst.

But at least until the next political crisis, Uribe can bask in the adulation of pulling off a mission that robbed the FARC of the high-profile hostages who were its most precious bargaining chips.

He may even have made some headway with a woman he has long tried to woo: Betancourt's mother, Yolanda Pulecio.

Throughout her daughter's six-year captivity, she had very publicly and passionately criticized Uribe for preferring a military rescue to negotiations.

Uribe, a twinkle in his eye, couldn't help but mention Pulecio during Wednesday's celebratory ceremony.

"I hope to win a little of her love," he said.

___

By huskie on Jul 5, 2008, 17:17 in Politics & the war.

huskie says on Jul 5, 2008, 17:18:

BMP

"Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds-"

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Atrevido says on Jul 5, 2008, 17:26:

I don´t think the rescue raises the question. I think it was already in play.

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Atrevido says on Jul 5, 2008, 17:53:

I don´t want Ingrid to be vice-president. I don´t think she´s qualified. She prefers France. I hope she stays there and leaves Colombian politics alone.

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billyb says on Jul 5, 2008, 17:55:

Uribe could put her in charge of the national park system.

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huskie says on Jul 5, 2008, 17:57:

or head of commando rescues
Cheers

"Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds-"

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wendell13 says on Jul 5, 2008, 18:22:

Em Wolb Nac Ised spelled backwards is Desi Can Blow Me

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CatGirl says on Jul 5, 2008, 18:27:

Did you get it?

Love and Time: the only two things that cannot be bought, but only spent

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bamacellist says on Jul 5, 2008, 18:28:

Wendell, I think it's the other way around ;) Em Wolb Nac Ised is Desi Can Blow Me spelled backwards. The life of a mod...

"The future is much like the present, only longer."

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george jung says on Jul 5, 2008, 18:41:

Did you ever think that Em Wolb Nac Ised(pretty neat trick, do another one after this one is deleted,see who is paying attention again, will be alot tougher I bet, the alarm has been sounded now) could really be Desi the moderator? Dam Wendell13 are you dyslexia or something? I bet you are great at those word games and crossword puzzles

"Men and fish are alot alike, when they open their mouths, they both get in trouble"

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Atrevido says on Jul 5, 2008, 18:42:

Wendel is a riddler par excelance.

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Gator says on Jul 5, 2008, 18:54:

Ingrid Betancourt is NOT the talk on the street at this time. If Uribe runs, and there will be an impressive amount of pressure from the people to allow this she might and it is a big might be a running mate. If he does not run it will be Santos.

Don't forget, when she got up front in the Partido Verde Oxígeno (Green Oxegen Party) she did not have much support, less than 24% as I remember. She tried to boast her lagging popularity by heading to meet with FARC when she was grabbed in 2002. Her comments when she landed in France did not help.

There will be a lot of pressure on the elected representatives and courts to allow Uribe to run. But I also hear that he is, at this point not that interested in a third term-can you blame him?

"Credidi pretio parvo emere et magno vendere tibi in animo fuisse!" .

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BillBigD says on Jul 5, 2008, 18:58:

Funny

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huskie says on Jul 5, 2008, 19:17:

And I hope he does not run for another re-election, not healthy for him politically, seems like congress is talking about another change to the constitution so he can be re-elected again, but IMHO, I think new blood should come in and continue his great presidency, but I really do not know who that might be, he is a tough cookie to replace. Ingrid could never, ever do what he has achieved
Cheers

"Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds-"

0 funny, 0 helpful.