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Rescue a devastating blow to FARC, may strengthen Uribe's re-election bid

Analysis: Rescue a devastating blow to FARC, may strengthen Uribe's re-election bid
BY SIBYLLA BRODZINSKY AND JUAN O. TAMAYO
Colombia's FARC guerrillas suffered a devastating but likely not fatal blow, and President Alvaro Uribe may have strengthened his bid to win a third term in office, when security forces rescued 15 hostages from a rebel jungle camp, analysts said Wednesday.

Uribe, who faces a constitutional crisis over his reelection in 2006, and Colombia's security forces emerged as clear victors from Wednesday's raid that freed three U.S. defense contractors, former presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt and 11 others held hostage -- without a shot fired.

For the U.S. government, the stunning rescue operation validates the billions of dollars in security aid that Washington has poured into Colombia over the past seven years despite human rights concerns, the observers added.

But the picture was much bleaker for the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, Latin America's oldest and most powerful guerrilla force and an organization heavily involved in drug trafficking.

''For the FARC, this is a mortal blow. They will never be able to recover from this,'' Colombian military analyst Alfredo Rangel said.

''This is a defeated guerrilla'' group, said Armando Castellano, a police official held captive since 1999, as he and former hostages were returned to Bogotá.

Adam Isacson, a Colombia analyst for the Washington-based Center for International Policy, agreed the raid was a powerful blow to the FARC -- and only one of several in recent months.

Its founder and maximum leader, Manuel ''Shureshot'' Marulanda, died of apparently natural causes; two members of its ruling secretariat were killed, one by security forces and the other by his own men; its top woman commander defected; and several computers captured from slain leader Raúl Reyes contained a trove of valuable intelligence.

''They've had a very bad run, and that seems to be continuing,'' Isacson said in a telephone interview. ``If they have another year like they've had, they won't really be a factor in the security situation in Colombia.''

''But they are not going to disappear anytime soon,'' he added, an opinion shared by Bruce Bagley, a professor at the University of Miami who has long specialized in Colombian issues.

''This is a symbolic blow to the FARC and an indication that they are losing organization coherence and integrity,'' Bagley said. ``It is being systematically dismantled.''

Yet the FARC still has a steady income from its involvement in drug trafficking, porous borders where its fighters can seek safe havens and an estimated 12,000 fighters, Bagley added, ``and recruiting young people is not so hard to do in a country with so much poverty.''

Others put the FARC's strength as low as 7,000 -- about half its 15,000-17,000 fighters in 2001. Yet that's still much higher than the 1,000-3,000 estimated for Colombia's other leftist guerrilla group, the National Liberation Army, or ELN, which has been fighting since the 1960s, Isacson noted.

But clearly the biggest winner was Uribe, for whom the raid represents a victory for his tough-as-nails stance on the FARC -- no to the rebels' conditions for peace talks and an on-and-off reluctance to negotiate the hostages' release that often drew harsh criticisms from relatives of the captives, the analysts added.

Already holding an 82 percent approval rating, Uribe's popularity is likely to spike even higher at just the time when he has been pushing for new elections that would give him a third presidential term.

A Supreme Court ruling last week on a 2004 constitutional amendment that allowed presidential reelection cast doubts on his 2006 election -- his second. Uribe then proposed settling the issue by holding a referendum on a new presidential election in which he would seek another four-year term.

''Can Congress and the Supreme Court withstand the political pressure of a hugely popular president, now even more popular?'' asked Isacson.

''It's like a soothing balm for Uribe,'' Rangel said.

And maybe for Colombia's hopes for a free trade pact with Washington, where Democrats in Congress have been holding up a vote on the pact.

If elected, Democratic U.S. House candidate Joe Garcia of Miami said, ``I will work in Congress to . . . pass a free trade accord with Colombia that serves the interests of both American workers and the people of Colombia.''

The raid also meant ''a pretty significant return'' for the U.S. investment in Colombia, Bagley said -- $5.4 billion in aid plus thousands of hours of training since 2000, backed by both the Clinton and Bush administrations, that ``are producing fruit now.''

''This valiant operation . . . demonstrates that U.S. assistance to our reliable regional ally has yielded significant security dividends and will hopefully continue to improve the prospects of a peaceful and prosperous Colombia in the future,'' said U.S. House Armed Services Committee Chairman Ike Skelton, D-Mo.

Special Miami Herald correspondent Brodzinsky reported from Bogotá.

By tasco66 on Jul 3, 2008, 12:13 in Politics & the war.

tasco66 says on Jul 3, 2008, 12:20:

Nothing can stop Uribe now.

Bravo, Presidente Uribe for the perfect operation!

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juancegomez says on Jul 3, 2008, 13:29:

Unless, of course, he has the nerve to stop concentrating power around his own person and decides to gracefully set the stage for a chosen successor, at the very least...without forgetting that his current re-election was born out of traditional clientelism and that wouldn't be legitimized even if a further re-election ended up being completely clean..

I don't want to sound overly dramatic, but I guess it's necessary...a man is greater if he resists temptation and knows when to step down, than if he loses his mind and becomes drunk with power. It's not the first time it has happened throughout Colombian history, and it may not be the last.

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lfsr1544 says on Jul 3, 2008, 19:11:

Juance.... prior to Uribe, Colombia has had NOTHING but posers in the presidency. He's the 1st presdient that I can ever remember that any Colombian ever gave a damn about. Colombian's know Uribe has many imperfections. The problem is, what's the alternative? If you look in the corporate setting, someone who has vision, leadership, who encourages growth and can push their company forward will not only keep their job but simultaneously be every other company's envy. In a developing country like Colombia, Uribe is not the norm. Over 80% of the Colombian public recognize it.

"Solo se que nada se"

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juancegomez says on Jul 4, 2008, 11:56:

If we look for alternatives, even from a pro-Uribe point of view if you want to go that far, they can be found.

If we don't, then they won't show up.

Again, I do not question Uribe's popularity, but I don't think that is the beginning and end of all the issues which make me oppose Uribe, one way or another.

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