President Alvaro Uribe:Production of coca in Colombia rises

KyleHanky says on Jun 3, 2007, 22:22:

Unconfirmed... So far no international press coverage, nor Colombian press coverage has been given to this story, and I haven't even been able to find Uribe's remarks on his website. Apparently an early version of the UN report (according to a leaker/interviewee) saw and 8% decrease in coca, but nothing is known about the white house report, until this. I remain skeptical because (1) no one else has picked it up (2) it is june, so who knows what the white house numbers say and (3) its pravda.

It's just best to disregard this for now, unless some other paper confirms it, and just wait for the White House and UN stats. The UN report comes out in june, so that'll be soon, and the White House are incredibly late, so who knows when they'll come out with their numbers...

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KyleHanky says on Jun 3, 2007, 22:23:

Ok... Ok apparently the UN leaker said 10%, according to this article, though at the time I had read 8%.

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juancegomez says on Jun 3, 2007, 22:37:

I was apparently going to dismiss it as well... ...but then I found this (which, in hindsight, I should have posted instead of Pravda, I know). I'm looking for his original remarks as well...

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June 3, 2007, 6:59PM
Colombian coca production up for 3rd straight year
U.S. has poured $5 billion into eradication program since 2000

By JOSHUA GOODMAN
Associated Press

BOGOTA, Colombia — Despite record drug eradication efforts, a White House survey found production of coca in Colombia rose for the third consecutive year in 2006, President Alvaro Uribe said.

Uribe, who travels to Washington on Wednesday to secure the continued flow of U.S. anti-drug aid, revealed the findings of the still-unreleased report at the end of a long speech Friday. A transcript was posted today on the president's Web site.

Uribe said the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy survey, which is based on satellite imagery, found that production rose 8 percent last year, to 385,484 acres — an area twice the size of New York City.

"Yesterday (for Thursday) they told me they were worried about revealing this number because of my upcoming trip to the United States, that the Americans should reveal it," Uribe said. "But that's why I'm revealing it. We're not trying to put makeup on what is a serious matter."

The much-awaited estimate, if confirmed, could revive debate about the effectiveness of Plan Colombia, the U.S.-backed anti-narcotics and counterinsurgency program that has cost American taxpayers more than $5 billion since 2000.

One of Plan Colombia's main goals was to halve production of coca within five years, but the latest estimate indicates 27 percent more coca is being produced than in 1999, the year before the anti-drug effort went into effect. A recent dip in the U.S. street price of cocaine, and rise in purity, also points to abundant supply

Last year, Colombia's drug police used U.S.-supplied planes to spray glyphosate herbicide on 424,000 acres of coca and opium poppies, and they manually eradicated an additional 42,100 acres of coca.

In 2005, authorities fumigated almost 345,900 acres, but the United States found the amount of coca surged 26 percent, to 355,831 acres. White House drug czar John Walters argued the unexpected rise was a statistical aberration owing to a near doubling of the area surveyed.

Rafael Lemaitre, a spokesman for the White House's Office of National Drug Control Policy, said in an e-mail message today he had not yet seen the coca estimates, whose release was originally expected in April.

Uribe noted Friday that estimates of production varied, calling them "disorienting."

"We've unleashed a battle with all our will and all our determination," Uribe said. "Could it be we've worked in vain? That all our work hasn't produced the desired results?"

He suggested earlier estimates had not included all of Colombia's territory.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/chronicle/4857918.html

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juancegomez says on Jun 3, 2007, 22:41:

Found it! Here's the original speech:

http://www.presidencia.gov.co/prensa_new/sne/2007/junio/01/11012007.htm

Excerpts:

...

Pero tenemos dificultades. Hace dos meses las Naciones Unidas expresaban que ya Colombia había reducido el hectariaje de coca a 79 mil hectáreas. Sin embargo, los Estados Unidos ahora dicen que son 156 mil. Tamaña dificultad.

Hemos librado una lucha con toda nuestra voluntad, con toda nuestra determinación. Y entonces uno se hace muchas preguntas. ¿Será que hemos trabajado en vano? ¿Será que todo ese trabajo no produce resultados? ¿Será que cuando se hicieron las primeras mediciones de las áreas de coca no se incluyó todo el territorio nacional y empezaron a incluir, anualmente, en cada nueva medición, un porcentaje adicional del territorio?

Y uno se pregunta: ¿será consistente esa cantidad de droga con unos paramilitares que están desmontados por la acción de la Fuerza Pública y con unas guerrillas que están debilitadas?

Si aquí no se estuviera disminuyendo la coca, creo que no habríamos podido desmontar el paramilitarismo, ni habríamos logrado el avance logrado en el debilitamiento de la guerrilla, ni tampoco estaríamos teniendo éxito con quienes quieren rearmarse. De aquellos desmovilizados que han intentado rearmarse, han sido dados de baja más de 400 y capturados más de 800.

La contundencia de la Fuerza Pública muestra que aquí no van a pelechar ‘Águilas Negras’, ni azules, ni blancas, ni angelicales, que todos esos bandidos los vamos a acabar. Si tuvieran tanto poder todavía los cultivos ilícitos, creo que no sería posible este avance de nuestra política de Seguridad Democrática.

A mí no me parece comprensible que mientas Naciones Unidas dice que aquí hay 79 mil hectáreas de droga, los Estados Unidos diga que aquí hay 156 mil.

Ayer me decían que tenían mucha preocupación para revelar esa cifra por mi viaje a los Estados Unidos. Que las revelen. Por eso las revelo yo ya. Este tema aquí no es de cosmética, sino de fondo.

Yo les hago un pedido muy respetuoso a Naciones Unidas y a los Estados Unidos: que se pongan de acuerdo en la metodología. Pero uno se siente desorientado. En esta batalla, para que haya semejante diferencia entre una medición y la otra. Tenemos derecho a sentirnos desorientados.

...

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JMCana says on Jun 4, 2007, 07:42:

Have I been reading correctly? Many of you are more of an expert on this than I am. So verify that I have been reading reports correctly and reading reliable reports. In the beginning it was the FARC and ELN who grew or controlled most of the cocaine and were the major shippers to the USA. Now the paramilitary and associates seem to control and ship the majority of cocaine to the USA? Estimates range from 60% top 80% depending upon what article you read.

It was discovered that the paramilitary leaders Le Ceja prison were still conducting drug business. Many were moved to Itagüí prison where recent phone taps reveled they still continued with drug business?

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juancegomez says on Jun 4, 2007, 08:47:

JMCana Well, as far as I can recall right now, with a bit of help (see below)...it's somewhat different.

In the beginning, the late 1970s, the FARC and other guerrillas mostly rejected the cultivation of coca. However, they soon accepted it and regulated most of the cultivation of coca in Colombia through a "tax" on its growth, but they were not necessarily involved per se in its processing and distribution as cocaine. They allowed the original Cartels to do so in their areas, but it was a rocky relationship that, in the 1980s, led to conflict and to the "taxation" of further phases of the process.

At the time, many paramilitaries were then linked to those and other drug cartels in a more or less organic way, but they weren't the ones who controlled the business either.

After the larger Cartels fragmented, both the paramilitaries and the FARC reacted in different ways.

During the mid-to-late 1990s, the FARC decided to cut off the middlemen and start commercializing coca paste (an intermediate product of cocaine processing) directly, as well as increasing its regulating and controlling activities (ie: sponsoring and "inviting" people to "cocalero" marches). However, at this point in time their participation in the export stage per se, that is the foreign sale and distribution of the finished product, was still believed to be insignificant, as far as publicly available information goes.

As the paramilitaries had re-organized into the AUC, they began to use their links to either replace or ally as "equal partners" with the "mini-Cartels", and their involvement in the sale and distribution increased. They also began to incursion into FARC-influenced areas and to compete with them as direct coca paste buyers.

In the late 1990s-early 2000s, the paramilitaries seem to have increased their control over coca cultivating areas per se (which have gradually changed and fluctuated to a certain extent, as a result of fumigations), and the guerrillas in turn have increased their participation in the sale and distribution of drugs through international contacts (as well as the exchange of coca/coca paste/cocaine for weapons), but they still don't dominate that side of the business either.

In other words, it seems that the FARC weren't really behind most drug exports per se, though they have always controlled key stages of the process, and their role has been gradually increasing over the years. However, the paramilitaries and the "mini-Cartels" still seem to have a head start as far as exporting the stuff is concerned.

Here's a rough timeline about the FARC's relationship with the trade in the Caguán area, up to ~1999.

-------------
AÑOS

FORMAS DE INTERVENCION

1977 Inicio de los cultivos de coca en el Caguán.

1978-1979 Oposición inicial y posterior aceptación de la siembra de los cultivos de coca. Creación de las “autodefensas”.

1979-1999 Regulación de los cultivos de coca. Exigencia de cultivos de pancoger.

1982-1998 Cobro de impuestos a los comerciantes de pasta, a los laboratorios de producción de cocaína y a los vuelos de carga.

1985 Primera propuesta de sustitución incluida en el plan de desarrollo para el Caguán entre las FARC, el Estado y las comunidades.

1986-1991 Concesión de mayor importancia a las actividades económica y militar que a las esferas organizativa y política.

1991-1992 Regulación policiva del comportamiento de los narcotraficantes y miembros de las “cocinas” en el Caguán.

1995-1996 Organización de las marchas de los cocaleros contra la fumigación y contra la presencia del Ejército.

1998-1999 Establecimiento de precios de sustentación. Eliminación de los comerciantes y comercialización de la pasta por parte de las propias FARC. Inicio de la competencia por la compra de parte de los paramilitares.

1999 Segunda propuesta de sustitución de cultivos por parte de las FARC para llevar a cabo en Cartagena del Chairá.

http://www.mamacoca.org/feb2002/art_ferro_Farc_y_coca_Caguan_es.html#fn23

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juancegomez says on Jun 4, 2007, 08:59:

As for this... "It was discovered that the paramilitary leaders Le Ceja prison were still conducting drug business."

IIRC, they were moved out of there mostly due to a rumored escape plan, and because of their rumored participation in at least a couple of murders.

http://www.caracol.com.co/noticias/363643.asp

"Many were moved to Itagüí prison where recent phone taps reveled they still continued with drug business?"

That seems to be the case with at least some of them, yes.

But the devil is in the details. The phone taps were apparently illegal, strictly legally speaking,

Thus it's allegedly necessary to establish what can be done to legalize them, if possible, and that implies, among other things, a need to (re-)identify the voices of the implicated people who were recorded. That is the government's POV at this time, at least.

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KyleHanky says on Jun 4, 2007, 09:36:

Goos Finds... Well done on the AP version, and tracking down the president's speech. I looked at 5/31 cause that was friday, and then what was posted sunday, skipping june 1, and needless to say, its a pain to read a ton of those things. As for the guerrilla/paramilitary drug trafficking post, I would add Dec 4, 1981 to the timeline, as that was the day of the creation of MAS (or official "announcement") of MAS (Muerte a Secuestradores), the paramilitary group created by Palbo Escobar and the Medellin Cartel. MAS obviously was involved in drug trafficking, and its model would be adopted all over Colombia, including by the Colombian military and police forces. The Castaños would have their connections to MAS as well, including Carlos, who would then go on to lead Los PEPEs during the search for Escobar. PEPEs would assassinate anyone involved with the Medellin Cartel, and their families, and was funded by the Cali Cartel. Fidel Castaño would be the first to get involved in drug trafficking of cocaine and made a ton of money. Of course Carlos would go on to create and lead the AUC paramilitaries, and actually was incredibly weary of the AUC's involvement in drug trafficking, which is why he was killed. His brother Vicente is still on the loose, choosing to drop out of the negotiations with the government and is still running huge drug trafficking business from wherever the hell he is.

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Mr. Hollywood says on Jun 6, 2007, 09:24:

That's a great trend. What an effective policy! Maybe if the US spends even MORE money spraying Colombian fields, then cocaine will become so plentiful in the US it'll be free!

Why didn't the drug czars think of that earlier?

The other thing I never see explained in any of these articles is the difference between acreage sprayed and actual coca crops sprayed. I believe in most of Colombia, coca is up to a 6 harvest per year crop and the plants start producing when they're 6 months old. So when the planes or choppers hit, let's just say, a 100 hectare field, the authorities count that as 100 hectares of cultivation destroyed. Problem with that logic is that the cocaleros just run out there the next week and replant and cross their fingers that the planes don't come again soon, which mostly they can't, because they're too busy flying around Colombia trying to spray all the other zillions of fields.

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goin_south says on Jun 6, 2007, 18:18:

well, if we could all "drill for oil", I suppose we would. Voy para del Sur

Why Colombianitas? Personally... I just don't like pink areolar tissue.

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vladimiro says on Jun 6, 2007, 20:09:

Its getting hard to believe Its getting hard to blame it all on incompetance. Its as if the US is planning this, because drug production is also increasing in Afghanistan, and amazingly Iraq is producing drugs for the first time right under the American soldiers feet. Maybe it serves as a pretext for increasing US military presence in the region. Drug production is the pretext the US is using for the military base in Ecuador.

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goin_south says on Jun 7, 2007, 01:09:

Really? What sort of military presence does the USA have in Ecuador?

Voy para del Sur

Why Colombianitas? Personally... I just don't like pink areolar tissue.

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juancegomez says on Jun 7, 2007, 10:36:

Manta Base, until 2009 That pretty much covers it.

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