pre-construction cost trends

NewBoy says on Dec 21, 2005, 12:21:

Ctg hasn't even started to increase in price much yet.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

aztec says on Dec 21, 2005, 13:34:

NewBoy "hasn't even started to increase in price much yet."

Absolutly don't want to be argumentative but are you sure about the prices not increasing?

0 funny, 0 helpful.

NewBoy says on Dec 21, 2005, 15:29:

aztec I didn't say that prices haven't gone up, they just haven't gone up much yet.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

bufalo says on Dec 21, 2005, 15:33:

I can´t say that I´m an expert, but from what I have heard, the prices in Cartagena have skyrocketed in comparison from a few years ago. I live in Armenia and I see a lot of new construction, as well as overpriced available apartments. I´m sure it will still go up, but I would be leary to buy here (Armenia) now investment-wise. I believe you could rent out a place a lot easier in Cartagena as well

"If you don't like it - lump it, take it down the road and dump it." - Archie Bunker played by Carroll O'Connor

0 funny, 0 helpful.

NewBoy says on Dec 21, 2005, 15:39:

bufalo Prices have gone up, but not that much really, also they went up from a very low base, there hasn't been any construction in Ctg for 12 years in the tourist areas, they only started on the first projects two years ago, there is a lot of pent up demand, I can't see any bubble yet, two years is no where near long enough to create a bubble.

So I would go for it now with a lot of local research.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

tomtom33 says on Dec 21, 2005, 16:49:

A different take-Cartagena. I bought my apartment in Laguito two years ago. Prices have nearly doubled since then for units similar to mine.

In Laguito alone there is one high-rise nearing completion, another one making pre-construction sales, and a third one preparing to start pre-construction sales. Laguito is only three blocks long.

There are probably 10 to 15 high-rises in Bocagrande and Castillo Grande in various stages. There is a large area between the airport and the old city where scattered low-rises are being marketed. There are some high-rises going up in Crespo and Manga.

I am no expert in any of this. But it seems like a glut is on the way.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

latinlife says on Dec 22, 2005, 00:19:

Thanks for the responses so far.. ...I guess if cartagena and panama now have similar price structures perhaps the financail incentives of panama could be the deciding factor.........but if there is a glut in cart' it could be a good time to deal ........
..I guess this march when I return to colombia and panama is going to be spent pounding the streets and the agents to try to get a grasp of respective local conditions........but both places compared with anything in europe now seem quite resonable priced......reminds me of spain and the spanish islands( tenerife,etc) some years ago...............thanks again for you replies ....

0 funny, 0 helpful.

aztec says on Dec 22, 2005, 05:01:

latinlife When you are comparing EURO prices with Colombia you have a bargain. Still there is a good chance things (like the States for different reasons) are about to stabilize or at least drop in price.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Wastelandlive says on Dec 22, 2005, 05:39:

Interesting opinions here. Prices haven't increased much? How about doubled or more since I left Colombia in '03?

I share TomTom's concern about a glut: it's not just Laguito, but Boca Grande, Castillo Grande, even Manga. It's an enourmous addition of units, way beyond what should be asked of the the infrastructure.

And prices are WAY out of wack with salaries: a local professional - we're talking doctors and lawyers - can't pay $150K-$250K for a condo.

So what's supporting these prices? European investers? Returning Colombian expats? Wealthy Bogotanos and Paisas buying vacation homes? Speculators looking to make money on the flip?

I don't know. It's not uncommon for attractive tourist enclaves to have real estate prices out of whack with local salaries... but that should be a point of concern, at the very least.

Two years isn't long enough to create a bubble? How long did the dot com bubble of the 90's last, folks?

The best advice I've seen yet is New Boy's idea to do lots of local research. I want to buy myself, and I'm negotiating on a _fair_ - not "good" - deal. But it took a LOT of legwork to find it, and I'm not offering asking price.

IMHO, much of the new construction is simply way overpriced. If you believe the greater fool theory, that doesn't matter, because you'll always be able to sell it for more. But sometimes real estate is more like a game of chairs; the guys who bought in TocaAgua know what I mean.

Careful my friend. Think about WHY you are buying. If you plan on living in the place, or using it as a vacation retreat for years to come, that's one thing. If you are convinced you are going to make money... be VERY careful.

Wasteland

Wasteland

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Wastelandlive says on Dec 22, 2005, 05:40:

But Aztec... What's a bargain? Is it cheaper than Europe? Sure. But what income can it generate compared to a European property? That seems key to me...

Wasteland

Wasteland

0 funny, 0 helpful.

juanalejo says on Dec 22, 2005, 06:03:

CTG I think with Cartagena hosting the International Festival of Classical music as of 2007 on a yearly basis and the World Tourism Congress in the same year it is going to attract many more foreign investors, so I do think 2006 is the right time to buy. Cartagena is still a hidden jem for most of the world, but that is about to change.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

NewBoy says on Dec 22, 2005, 11:19:

Ctg real estate A few comments to the above posts:

Ctg prices haven't doubled in the last two year, there is no doubt that some properties like Tomtom33 have doubled in value or more, but some properties do not make the market. Also Tomtom33 and others bought at the right time when there were few buyers out there and was undoubtly able able to get a discount to the market rate, the discount that people were able to get was easily 10-30% or more then.

Prices have gone up by 30-40% on average over the last two years in Ctg. This price increase has to be taken into context, prices in Ctg have not moved for approx 9 years previouse to that, in fact have gone down over that time. Looking at 1994 prices, you will find that they haven't actually changed much.

Historically many of the apts in Laguito and Bocogrande are not owned by people from Ctg, but Colombians living elsewhere. There has always been a small percentage owned by foreigners, but that is increasing dramatically.

As to the prices of the apts in the good areas being out of line with what people earn in Ctg, that has always been the way, much as it is in the other Cities in Colombia.

In fact going on the above basis alone it should show that apts in Ctg are cheap, seeing as they should be at a large premium to other Colombian Cities, but they are not, being as Ctg is a growing tourist destination.

Who will buy the properties, foreigners, overseas Colombians and Colombians living in Colombia but not living in Ctg, mostly the later.

Colombias economy is doing well at the moment and for the last few years, when the better off people in the Colombian interior make money, they want two expensive things, a farm and an apt on the coast, you shouldn't be looking at the people in Ctg to buy those apts, but Colombia as a whole.

The tech bubble didn't start in 1999, but 1996, it only started going crazy in 1999/2000. Also real estate is not a stockmarket, stockmarkets move up and down a lot quicker than real estate.

I am 100% certain that there will be a bubble in property prices in Ctg, it is in mans nature to create them, but I think it is way to soon for that, maybe in a few years or so.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

rocinante says on Dec 22, 2005, 15:08:

juanalejo juanalejo:"...Cartagena hosting the International Festival of Classical music..."

What do you mean by "Classical music"? Mozart?

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Wastelandlive says on Dec 23, 2005, 07:42:

In response to NewBoy's post Newboy...

We dissagree, which is great. I hope to benefit from contrarian opinions. But you make some very interesting statements that I'd love to see you explain in detail. For example:

1) TomTom bought at "a discount to the market rate?" If you don't determine market rate by what people are paying... then how do you determine it?

If I follow your logic correctly, you suggest that he bought thirty percent "below the market rate," and prices have appreciated 30-40% in the last two years, so his property should now be worth... 60-70% more than he paid, right?

No, I suppose that isn't quite doubling in value, which is my impression. But by your own math, it's pretty close, and damn well phenominal either way.

2) You suggested earlier that there "is a lot of pent up demand." Obviously, a lot of the new construction has sold... so I have to agree with you that there was and is demand. But how do you measure "pent up demand?" How much more is pent up?

3) NB: "Prices have gone up by 30-40% on average over the last two years in Ctg. This price increase has to be taken into context, prices in Ctg have not moved for approx 9 years previouse to that, in fact have gone down over that time. Looking at 1994 prices, you will find that they haven't actually changed much."

That hasn't been my experience. But then... I don't know how to reference 1994 prices. Could you show us? I am doing my research, and that would be great information to have.

4) NB: "In fact going on the above basis alone it should show that apts in Ctg are cheap, seeing as they should be at a large premium to other Colombian Cities, but they are not, being as Ctg is a growing tourist destination."

When I compare the average price of a square meter in a premium neighborhood in Cartagena with those in Bogota and Medellin on such sites as www.metrocuadrado.com, it's clear to me that Cartagena is the most expensive city in Colombia. And perhaps justifiably so... but how can you claim otherwise?

5) NB: "As to the prices of the apts in the good areas being out of line with what people earn in Ctg, that has always been the way, much as it is in the other Cities in Colombia."

I'm not sure I follow that logic. So in all cities in Colombia, the nice apartments are owned by foreigners, NOT local professionals?

In a way I agree with you. It's getting that way everywhere, even here in the States and in Europe. But I dissagree that its "always been that way." I'd suggest that if it's true, it's simply evidence of a world-wide real estate bubble ... a theory that is supported by such journals as the Economist.

In other words... BE CAREFUL.

5) NB: "The tech bubble didn't start in 1999, but 1996, it only started going crazy in 1999/2000."

I'd submit to you that it's the going crazy part that IS the bubble, NB. But hey... I certainly agree with you that historically, real estate markets move more slowly than the stock market. They go up more slowly... and when they crash, they stay down for years. Witness California in the 80's.

Financial experts will also tell you that the stock market is a leading indicator. That means that what happened in the stock market years ago just might happen in the real estate market as well. I wish I knew how to time it... but then, doesn't everybody?

The question is, where is it now? Peaking? Or just beginning to form?
______________________________

NewBoy... a lot of your arguments sound like those made by real estate agents and owners looking to sell. Will you share with us exactly what your interest in this conversation?

My interest is simple: like the original poster, I'm looking to buy. And I too would like to believe that it's a good investment. And certainly there are lots of reasons to be bullish on Colombia, four more years of Uribe and an impending FTA with the US being among them.

But I have a good deal of life experience, and I have bought and sold property before. I ALWAYS get nervous when I read the unbridled enthusiasm characterised, for example, by jaunelejo's faith that a few more international festivals in Cartagena will drive up property values forever.

My advise to anybody reading: ALL investments should be valued by their potential to generate income. Remember that? The price of a stock is supposed to represent the net present value of its future cash flows. Just so, the price of real estate should be justified by the rent it can generate.

If that relationship is way out of whack, it's because speculators are driving the market, and that market will fall just as soon as the gig is up, and the herd changes its mind.

If you buy into that, YOU are speculating. Which is your business... just be aware of your risks.

And if you're buying a home or a vacation home that you will enjoy regardless of its future value, likewise you might accept the risk. But don't fool yourself: if that's the case, its not an investment... but a luxury, like a nice car or a yacht. Consider it such.

I'm shopping VERY hard... and if I don't find a realistic price, I'll pass.

PS - I'd sure like to read H's comments on this thread... isn't he an international real estate professional?

Wasteland

Wasteland

0 funny, 0 helpful.

GringoinBucaramanga says on Dec 23, 2005, 08:07:

Bucaramga condo cost jj_jp at msn.com
My wife and I purchased a 3-2 new condo last november.
It was finished last month and went from $52k to $65k today.
But that is not the norm.
I think because it is a strata 6 and they are few of those.
John

jj_jp@msn.com

0 funny, 0 helpful.

NewBoy says on Dec 23, 2005, 11:15:

Wastelandlive Disagreeing is fine, here are my comments to your last post.

1. The market rate at the time is determined by research, between late 1994 and mid 2002, Colombia has not been doing very well econonimically. If you check out a large number of properties for sale, it will give you a idea of the market value of the specified property at that time, because of the bad economic situation in Colombia for the previouse years, there were some people who were in financial difficulties, they are more desperate to sell and you can negotiate a lot harder with them and get a better deal, hence the 10-30% discount I was talking about (I was buying property then in Ctg, that is where I draw the numbers from).

As I stated previously, "but some properties do not make the market", the average price increase over the last 2 years for property in Ctg is 30-40%, just because tomtom33 (and some of mine
have) properties doubled in value doesn't mean the market as a whole did, as it happens I know tomtom33 and the apt he is talking about.

2. True very hard to measure exactly future demand, I would base it on increasing foreign tourists visiting Ctg and a small percentage of them buying property and more importantly in the short term, how well the Colombian economy is doing and the better off elements buying holiday homes on the coast, but how many extra units this will soak up...?

3. I spent 9 months in Ctg doing research before buying the first property there, I have seen little in writing about previouse prices, but if ask the right people you can build a picture up and I don't mean asking real estate agents or sellers, the 30-40% price increase is what is published in the local newspapers/magazines.

4. There is very little premium in apts in Ctg, compared with Medellin or Bogota, there should be a very large one, the Ctg tourist areas should not in any way be related to the Colombian real estate market as a whole, Ctg real estate price should be correlate with other tourist enclaves in developing Countries, which are at a very very large premium in comparison to the general real estate markets in their respective Countries. Obviously there is good historical reasons why Ctg is not at a very large premium, will that change in the future...I think so.

5. It has been the way since 1994 at least in Colombia as it is in most Countries, wether it is a world wide real estate bubble, maybe but I don't think so, although certainly some Countries are in a real estate bubble.

I don't believe the stockmarket is a very good indicator to what the real estate market is going to do.

Its just beginning in my opinium.

MYSELF

I am not a real estate agent, nor am I looking to sell property in Ctg, on the contrary I am buying property there still, on the basis of yield, I purchased a property today as it happened and I expect it
to generate a gross yield of 28-32%, the 28% is based on other units that I have purchased, the extra 4% is something I wish to change, which might generate slightly more income.

I have been buying and selling property for many years, in 4 Countres, I also play the stockmarket, curreny market, share options markets and other things.

My property sales over the years have generated between 10-700%, averaging approx 200%, plus income.

Never lost on a property deal yet, although there is always a first time, although lost plenty of money on other things.

My prediction 3 years ago was that I expect Ctg real estate in US dollar terms to increase 10 fold over the next decade or two....the future will tell.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Wastelandlive says on Dec 24, 2005, 09:26:

Well lets keep the conversation going then! NewBoy:

I read your post in detail. Here are my questions:

1) Regarding your theory on market rate: I think that if you can drive a hard bargain because times are hard... that's market rate. At least that's how it works in most of the world. Can you give me a more convincing argument about why you think TomTom got a discount? Were the comps priced differently, or was everybody in Cartagena equally able to drive a hard bargain?

(I'm impressed, BTW, that you know TomTom and his apartment. Next time I come I need to write ahead and hook up with you guys for a stein over Leon de Bavaria's.)

2) "Pent up demand:" OK. If there were some national agency that tracked time on the market, or new construction starts... as we have in the US, we might have better luck. But you're telling me its a wag, and I can certainly do no better.

3)30%-40% growth in two years: OK, we have to dissagree. I lived in Cartagena between 2001 and 2003, and spent 2003 shopping. If you believe your picture formed from talking to people and reading newspapers is more accurate than mine, I'm not offended. I just wanted to know from where you are getting your data.

4) A premium on Cartagena: I see that we do agree that there is a premium on Cartagena property over other Colombian cities... your point is that there is not a LARGE premium, and not knowing what you consider large, it's hard for me to respond. My general impression is that the premium is 20%, but that's a gut sense... nothing scientific about it. I recommend, once again, that everybody do there own research on www.metrocuadrado.com... and if you, NB, have any other recommended sites, I'd appreciate it.

5)"It has been that way since 1994?" I was responding to this statement that you posted:

NB: "This price increase has to be taken into context, prices in Ctg have not moved for approx 9 years previouse to that, in fact have gone down over that time. Looking at 1994 prices, you will find that they haven't actually changed much."

I dissagree, but I'm open to learning. What I'm asking is how you know what '94 prices were, which is the only way that I can imagine your having arrived at that opinion. Can you show us?
________________________

So far as your personal experience goes... that is indeed an impressive resume. Years of buying and selling in 4 countries, averaging 200% appreciation (annual?)... plus income? A gross yield of 28%-32% on your rentals? (Financed? Or cash?)

That's amazing stuff, and I certainly can't approach it.

The last time I heard numbers like that associated with real estate was on one of those late night, "Buy My Book and Become a Real Estate Millionaire" programs. Congratulations to you if you've had the savy to make it come true: you must be a very wealthy man.

And thanks for the explanation: at least I know where you are coming from.

Caveat Emptor

Wasteland

Wasteland

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Wastelandlive says on Dec 24, 2005, 10:09:

Oh - PS - regarding your finance background: New Boy,

I was intrigued by this:

NB: "...I also play the stockmarket, curreny market, share options markets and other things."

When you say you "play the share options markets," ... are you referring to what most finance experts refer to as "trading options?" What are "other things?" More complex derivatives? Futures?

And did you have a professional finance training/education, or did you teach yourself?

I ask because I have a friend who hopes to pursue a finance career in Colombia. He's got a finance undergraduate degree from a US university, and he speaks Spanish as a second language. I wouldn't even know where to start, myself... perhaps you have some insight?

Wasteland

Wasteland

0 funny, 0 helpful.

NewBoy says on Dec 24, 2005, 11:14:

Wastelandlive The 1994 prices were from asking people in the know, the 2002 plus prices was boots on the ground, also there is no way that you can get most people down from what they think is fair value , even in the bad economic years, that goes for Colombia and other Countries, that is where I get my market rate from.

I would say that sounds about right for the premium of Ctg over Medellin and Bogota in the good neighbourhoods, maybe a touch more.

No unfortunately it is not 200% per annum on the the real estate market, I don't actually log the numbers down, but I can remember what I purchased for each property and sold them for.

With the help of loans in the early years, but none now.

The only real number I have logged down, is that in 7.5 years, I increased my overall porfolio (from a low base) 57 fold, then called it a day and semi-retired.

I taught myself everything connected with the financial markets and real estate from reading magazines and Financial newspapers, never yet read a book on how to make money, don't really rate a degree for it, unless it is a science based one. In fact I don't have a degree in anything.

I had enough of shares, share options (traded options) etc., so I stopped doing them this year, although I still read the finanicial newspapers daily. Other things are other business opurtunities that sometimes appear, for example, I rented some waste land in London for 4 years, cleaned it up and it was used as a parking lot.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

juanalejo says on Dec 25, 2005, 07:30:

Rocinante Yes Mozart type music, I have the invitation in my hand, this coming 10th of January is the prelude to next years' 1 week, first classical music festival in Cartagena. This year Charles Wadsworth (USA) piano, Wendy Chen (USA)piano, Chee-Yun (Korea) violin, and Andrés Díaz (Chile) violonchelo will be playing Saint-Saëns, Mendelson and Rachmaninov. Next year over 50 artists from all over the world will be playing in Cartagena. This festival is organized by the same people who organize the Spoletto Festival in Spoletto, Italy, and the Spoletto USA in Charleston, SC which are the some of the largest musical festivals in world, and those who assist to these are some of the wealthiest people in the world.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Wastelandlive says on Dec 26, 2005, 06:26:

NewBoy, ROFLMAO... I've got to say, you are truly a card. I've got to meet you one day: I hope you won't be shy! It's hard to pick the crown jewel from this thread. I'm not sure if it's...

1) Your prediction that Cartagena property will increase in value 10 times in the next decade. (100% per annum for ten years! I'm in! Yesterday! :)

2) Your claim to have multiplied the value of your portfolio 57 times in 7.5 years, making you more successful by an order of magnitude than Warren Buffet, and making Donald Trump look like a complete idiot.

3) Your newfound humility in having accomplished this with no education or training at whatsoever. (Hey, there's hope for all of us! :)

4) Your generally clumsy and innacurate use of financial terminology like "the shares options market."

5) Your complete innability to grasp simple economic concepts like "market rate."

6) Your general habit of making outrageous claims that you can't even begin to back up. For example, property prices in Cartagena haven't changed much since 1994 (?!?!?!?) THAT was a doozy...
____________________________________

I have to confess, I've been having a little fun at your expense. Or not at your expense really, just mine. After all, nobody forces you to post this stuff, and nobody forces me to waste my time responding to it.

Please understand... I'm not calling you a shill, a con-man, a bullshit artist, or an overenthusiastic teenager with some outrageous fantasies about the financial world.

It's just that I'm a grown man with an MBA in Finance and some experience as both an investor and consultant. And I find both your arguments and your personal history lacking in credibility. More importantly, much like our friend "Rumba," I find it dissapointing that people with serious questions about Colombia come to this site - which is not a commercial site, but presumably made up of friendly people with a common interest - looking for sincere answers, and instead have to read what has the strong odor of bovine fecal matter.

If I had to guess I'd say you're a young guy with very little life experience who spent his meager inheritence on a condo in Cartagena. Like most owners there, you've seen property values rise significantly in the last few years, and you are thrilled by - and proud of - your investment decision. You're just a little scared that the party might not last. And justifiably so; I'm guessing you haven't even begun to think about liquidity.

So when the topic comes up, you project your fantasy of incredible returns on your condo because you have a vague understanding that in the world of speculation, sometimes perception equals reality. Why you imagine that what the readers of this small forum think might actually impact real estate prices in Cartagena is beyond me... but then you believe a lot of strange things.

For example, you also seem to believe that the world is populated with lots of people who sit around with their Bloomberg terminals growing fantastically rich trading stocks, options, currencies, real estate and "other things." That's unfortunate; with that kind of world view, there's a good chance that you're going to piss away whatever small nest egg might have been handed to you.

Of course, maybe I'm wrong, and you really are an amazing guy who has done what armies of Ivy League educated professionals can't, and you have multiplied your portfolio by a factor of "57 in 7.5 years."

If that's the case, I'd strongly recommend that you get the hell out of Colombia, where other less principled and more powerful people than I will take a very strong interest in you. Why not buy yourself a couple of pads in New York, Monterrey, San Francisco, London, Paris, and perhaps the Canary Islands? After all, security is no issue in these places, and you can definitely afford it!

Regards,

Wasteland

Wasteland

0 funny, 0 helpful.

NewBoy says on Dec 26, 2005, 07:10:

Wasteland Its up to you what you believe, but there is no way that I would invest but some of my money in Ctg.

I did actualy mention that I have taken no financial courses or degree, that doesn't mean you have no education, only some fools who live their lives in a University would say that, so my terminolgy is going to be a bit off, to me a degree means nothing, most of my friends in the past who have a degree, don't have much more than the average Joe, but thats up to them, I never waisted my time following the pack, other than in the markets.

Also if you are may or may not have a MBA, but you certainly did't amaylse my posts very well, if you do have a financial MBA you should know it is very easy to increase you portfolio when you are small, but when you become as big as Warren Buffet it gets very very difficult to serously out perform the market.

You certainly have come to some strange conclusions yourself.

But as you say this is the internet, so people can bullshit, but I don't and that is what I have done, but who can proove that as you say, as to the predictions, the future will tell.

Live in New York, freez your ass of, you have to be joking.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Wastelandlive says on Dec 26, 2005, 10:12:

Too, toooo funny. NB: "and that is what I have done?"

That's what you've done?
What?
Bullshit?
Or earned a 5,600% return on your portfolio in 7.5 years?
Is there a difference?

NewBoy, as you might have gathered by now, I analysed your posts quite well. It's not that your "terminology is a bit off," it's that YOU are off. WAY off.

Your assumption, BTW, that large investors can't achieve the returns that a small investor achieves isn't completely accurate. It's hard for EVERYBODY to beat the market, large and small, but due to steeper discounts in transaction costs based on volume, the reality is sometimes the OPPOSITE of what you suggest.

What you're referring to is the difficulty of large institutional investors to find enough high NPV projects to exhaust their capital. Which is neither here nor there for Mr. Buffett, who started with a newspaper route and some pinball machines.

Geeze. You must think that Google has been a pretty sad investment... after all, it's only quadrupled in the 14 months since its IPO. Nothing NEAR the returns you generate. What do you have, the patent on fresh water?

Too, too funny. Keep writing NewBoy. I can't be the only one who's amused by your predicament. Merry Christmas NB, and happy April fools 4 months early!

Wasteland

Wasteland

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Hunter says on Dec 26, 2005, 10:49:

Mr Buffet made a great deal of money in the early years and increased the portfolio he owns/mangaes by a very great percentage, this was because his portfolio started off small, but although he has beaten the market in most recent years, he doesn't generally beat it by much now.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

NewBoy says on Dec 26, 2005, 10:55:

Wastelandlive You quote google, if you think that the present share price is a bit high, why not sell, make the several hundred percent and roll the money into other things, thats the way to speculate and make the money and increase portfolios.

What you believe or not is irrelevent to me, the original post asked about real estate, I never mentiond anything about myself initially until you asked, you preseumed that I was a real estate agent, or somebody trying to sell a property.

I can rip a lot of holes in your responces, with my non MBA English, just one very simple one, many times I have read of the eigth wonder of the world, compound interest.

Surely if you know something about finance you would not put in writing:

"Your prediction that Cartagena property will increase in value 10 times in the next decade. (100% per annum for ten years! I'm in! Yesterday! :)"

I will explain compound interest to you (maybe they don't teach it on MBA courses), starting with a base figure of 1, if you double it it goes to 2, if you double it again it goes to 4, that makes the growth 300% from the original price, so you don't need for property prices to rise on average by 100% a year.

As for analysing my posts, oh I said 10 to 20 years.

Can't have analysed them very well, but then again you don't seem to analyse very well a lot of things, wern't you the person asking how to buy property in Ctg without a visa, cedula and bank account in another thread, yet in this thread you posted that you have spent a lot of time in Ctg, didn't you do any research when you were there before, you claimed that you did some on this thread.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Wastelandlive says on Dec 26, 2005, 11:28:

Hunter There you are.

Hey... lets face it. Buffet got rich the old fashioned way, OPM, and value investing. I wouldn't count him out of the game. Nobody has done so wonderfully lately... well, except for maybe NewBoy, Jeff Bezoz, and the Google twins.

Hey... I've been waiting for you to chime in for sometime.

Are you impossible to PM? If not, can you answer some questions about forming and buying with an IBC? Are you familiar with the Colombian tax code?

R-

Wasteland

Wasteland

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Wastelandlive says on Dec 26, 2005, 11:47:

Google? Geeze NB,

I don't sell Google because I don't own any. Not being an institutional investor, I couldn't get in on the IPO, and while I could have bought in later and made money, I certainly didn't know that. Some people knew - or at least guessed right - but not me. For all I know, it'll crash tomorrow.

So far as your lecture on compound interest - ya I understand it. That's what they teach you in your first undergraduate Finance class. And ya - I was using simple interest. Sorry - I'd have never guessed from your posts that you'd follow compounding. Perhaps I misjudged you. You want to go there?

Here's the formula: Vf=Vp(1+r)^n. Why not do the math yourself, and figure out what annual rate of return is required to return 900% in 10 years? In real estate? Geeze... it's rediculous however you slice it.

So far as this goes:

NB: "As for analysing my posts, oh I said 10 to 20 years."

Sorry. What you "said" was:

NB:"The only real number I have logged down, is that in 7.5 years, I increased my overall porfolio (from a low base) 57 fold, then called it a day and semi-retired."

So back off and call it "10 to 20 years" now if you like. Whatever. No importa nada.

So far as your question:

NB: "wern't you the person asking how to buy property in Ctg without a visa, cedula and bank account in another thread, yet in this thread you posted that you have spent a lot of time in Ctg, didn't you do any research when you were there before, you claimed that you did some on this thread."

No, I wasn't that person. Both my visa and cedula are expired, and I never had a bank account. But those things are easily dealt with: because I haven't actually bought in Cartagena, I do have some questions about the procedure, but those aren't among them. Sorry.

Keep it coming! Cheers,

Wasteland

Wasteland

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Hunter says on Dec 26, 2005, 11:56:

Wastelandlive I don't post much any more, yes Mr. Buffet is mostly a value investor, I certainly don't count him out of the game and he will still beat the market most years.

Whats a IBC, International Business Corporation (?), if it is, I do know something about them, but Viewpoint knows a lot more than me, he would be the man to contact.

Also viewpoint spends a lot of time in Panama, which is good place to set up a corporation for investing in Ctg or elsewhere, if that is your idea.

I know some things about the Colombian tax laws, but I leave most of it to the Colombian accountant, I don't have the time or inclination to delve into their rules to deeply as I used to in my old home.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Wastelandlive says on Dec 26, 2005, 12:07:

Thanks Hunter OK. Yep - IBC = International Business Corporation.

VP has actually been kind enough to teach me a few things via PM. I hate to keep pesterring the same people. And - though you might not gather as much from this thread - I value contrarian opinions... informed, sincere opinions from people with actual knowledge and experience.

I researched all the threads that I could on PBH, and I gathered that you had experience in real estate there. Maybe your bag is valuation?

I'd like to protect my assets. It seems wise at this point in my life. But the offshore corporation strategy is somewhat murky, and I've never gone there before. And I keep learning about new aspects to this strategy.

For example, VP relates (I think) that if I own in my own name in Colombia, and end up with a resident or investor visa, I'll have to pay tax on the property. But would the corporation not have to pay that tax as well? Or is it a different rate?

And once I crunch all the numbers... including the annual fee from the lawyer to maintain the corporation, am I ahead or behind with the IBC? Saving money, or paying a premium for the privacy and the shelter of an offshore corporation?

If you can help, or even point me in the right direction, I'll be gratefull. I do read Spanish.

Thank you again,

Wasteland

Wasteland

0 funny, 0 helpful.

NewBoy says on Dec 26, 2005, 12:21:

Google? Geeze As I said I stopped playing the share markets this summer complety, mostly several years ago, but I still read the financial news and current affirs daily, wasn't google done by offering people shares depending on how much they bid for them, instead of the tradtional IPO route.

Although I said I din't have a degree, I did the first year of a engineering degree with extra maths (mature student), as it happens it was the first year of the 7.5 years I was talking about, I also had a full time job that year, I decided to take a year off because I thought that I could do better without a degree, I gave myself a year to see if I could add to what I did in the first year and make sure it wasn't just dumb luck, I never returned to University, couldn't see the point, so I know a few formulas, especially the easy compound interest one.

Sticking to the one mis-quoted analysis (let alone the others), why I are you mixing up two differant things, the 7.5 years is not related to Ctg and 10 to 20 years appreciation that I was talking about, exactly what I said is below:

"My prediction 3 years ago was that I expect Ctg real estate in US dollar terms to increase 10 fold over the next decade or two....the future will tell."

As to you not asking the above questions, ho hum:

http://poorbuthappy.com/colombia/node/15298

0 funny, 0 helpful.

NewBoy says on Dec 26, 2005, 12:25:

Wastelandlive Will PM you, no point stirring the shit over nothing.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Wastelandlive says on Dec 26, 2005, 12:37:

NB I'm not mixing up two things.

I've referred to two of your several rediculous statements which are distinct and equally unbelievable. I think you'd like pretend I'm mixing them up rather than defend either... why?

By the way Sr. Matematica avancada, did you not crunch the numbers? Did you figure out what rate of return compounded annually which will give us 900% in ten years? How about that which will generate 5600% in 7.5 years? (I don't have a calculator handy, and I'm not working with Windows.)

Seriously... I'm rapidly losing interest. (Such punishment! :)

As to my question: rereading that post, I can see how you might have missunderstood it.

I can't imagine why you'd care, but here is my situation: you'll note that I don't ask whether property CAN be bought without a cedula or visa - I'm well aware that it can. I merely point out that I don't have them, and I'm not sure what the first step is in transfering funds to Colombia if I DON'T have an account.

Simple, no? Eagerly awaiting your PM, which will make all clear, I am certain!

G'day.

Wasteland

Wasteland

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Hunter says on Dec 26, 2005, 12:38:

Wastelandlive If the property is in your name and you live there, you do have to inform DIAN if it is over 80,000,000 pesos, but at the moment there is no tax on them, if they do bring a tax in on peoples personnel property it will be minimal.

If you were just buying one property in Ctg, I wouldn't bother and just buy it in your name.

The only real reason I can think of to use a IBC is if you plan on buying a lot of properties and wish to keep the owner hidden, not sure of the tax considerations in Colombia on a IBC, but on Colombian Corporations there are none.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Wastelandlive says on Dec 26, 2005, 12:43:

That's good stuff Hunter Thanks. Lots of angles to consider. Cost, privacy, exposure... I'll keep studying.

Buying lots of property? No, not lots... I'm no mogul. But I could see perhaps two condos - one humble, and one a little bit nicer - and my business. That's enough to be dangerous IMHO.

Wasteland

Wasteland

0 funny, 0 helpful.