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Peso/Pound Trends

Hi there,

Since arriving to Colombia in 2004, I have seen the exchange rate slide from 5000pesos/ 1 pound to the rate today of 3000/ 1 pound.

Having procrastinated for over 2 years about bringing money here to invest, I pose this to those who have some experience about this area.

What do you see happening over the next year or so, do you see the trend continuing or will it stay at this level for a while?
I ain't looking for financial advice but I want to try and get a grip on the current market forces and trends.

Lets see what you think.........

By curramberochris on Oct 19, 2009, 13:57 in Friendly Talkzone.


curramberochris says on Oct 19, 2009, 13:58:

It can't go any lower can it!!!!!!!

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suizo says on Oct 19, 2009, 14:12:

sure it will go lower...they haven't even turned off the money printing machines yet!

Crackheads suck!

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kenblanquito says on Oct 19, 2009, 14:22:

As long as the US and the UK continue to print money, indirectly devaluing their currencies, I cannot see any vast improvements round the corner.
I too witnessed the 5000COP per Pound during my 2004 extended holiday here, living like a relatively well-off individual and even in Feb 2007, it was still at 4700ish. Luckily, it was then that some of my Pounds were sent here.

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curramberochris says on Oct 19, 2009, 14:28:

I put it off and put it off and now I just know if I should weather out the storm or take the plunge! The Uk economy doesn't look like it is going to improve in the short-term.

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bickerss says on Oct 19, 2009, 14:38:

If it is any comfort; I am holding off and have been for some time. More based on a hope and a prayer than anything else that it has to improve sometime (althohgh that 'theory' has dismally failed over the last year!!).

Investment Strategy - buying when others are crying!! Offloading when others are gloating!!!

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ronaldo says on Oct 19, 2009, 16:12:

When I first came to Colombia the exchange rate for one US Dollar was: 1 USD = 3,000 COP
Todays rate is: 1 USD = 1,846.5 COP
A drop in value for the USD of about 38.9%.
I believe that the USD will go lower.
Don't be surprised to see 1 USD = 1,650 COP
All other currencies will follow.

Ronaldo

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curramberochris says on Oct 19, 2009, 16:18:

Why do you believe that Ronaldo? I have this horrible image of haing left it to late, I bring money to Colombia and the UK economy starts to sort itself out and the currency gets stronger! I don't want my money here forever and I would hate to feel my money is trapped here due to the strength of the pound. I suppose this is the life of a currency trader!!!

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jimmymcc says on Oct 19, 2009, 16:58:

When sending UK sterling or Euros,they transfer it into Dollars first, which is a pain as the UK and USA are still on the slide its not much better for the Euro, the other week I transferred €1000, and before they finished with the conversion and tax in the bank, I only got about €800.
Only a few years ago it was almost €2 to £1,

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ronaldo says on Oct 19, 2009, 17:03:

The US is the biggest economy in the world and when they are in big trouble, which they are regardless of what they tell you, it affects every other country. We are all inter-dependent today like an ego-system. The fleecing of America, by big corporations, this time has been so massive and devastating that you will not see any resemblance to normal for a decade (10 years) and maybe longer. And add to the fact that they have put the thieves in charge of the recovery. Same Old, Same Old system. And just wait, when the economy has fully recovered they will do it all over again. BOOM, ROB, BUST.

Ronaldo

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tabla says on Oct 19, 2009, 17:36:

No one knows the future so it is best to keep your money in a mix of currencies. By all means buy more of any one when it is cheaper. Any strong move, like we have seen with the pound, is usually followed by a correction. Avoid acting in a panic. I heard the euro will drop next, because it's just as weak as the dollar/pound but has not fallen in the same way. It's very difficult to predict rates between weak currencies. Volatility you can predict, because no one knows the real value of one against the other. There is no doubt these currencies are being destroyed by governments right now.

I notice the Argentinian peso is about the same level as 2 years ago. Does this mean Argentina is a cheaper place to go? Anybody know?

I also write for the archive.

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tropicalshirt says on Oct 20, 2009, 01:05:

curramberochris,

By advice Pound is set to weaken further due to such historic low interest rates set to remain for a long time, amongst other things. Britsih interest rate of 0.5 could be stuck here for some time. Eurozone rates set at 1 per cent currently. Eurozone said to be ahead of UK in coming out of recession. Euro set to take over the Dollar as the Worlds reserve currency.

Some stories point out that a currency crisis is looming (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aX6RWFyrWJVQ) I guess it will only stay weak, like it is currently. Good news of the recovery will have the effect of pushing it up at times, whilst the realities of the debt etc will put it back and weakening slightly.

Last month, Pound was at 3,400 Pesos. This month it went below 3,000.

Of course there is the factor of what happens in Colombia as well.

How is life in Barranquilla?

Only cheaper countries left will be those linked through economics indirectly or directly to the dollar: Mexico, Ecuador, Panama. What about moving there!

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curramberochris says on Oct 20, 2009, 07:44:

Thanks for all your comments and opinions. I am swaying towards bringing some funds over, purely due to the better rates of return here. I might wait a few more weeks to see what happens.

Barranquilla is suprisingly cool today, we have the mother of all storms last night and it has rained for a good 10 hours now.

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