Join in 7 seconds.. Existing users: sign in.

all forums, active | friendly talkzone, travel tips, visa & paperwork, renting, selling & meetups, politics & the war, espanol

Peso now into 1800s...

Alright cayita, maybe all of those colombians with the big bucks should be giving me tips...my money ain't worth much.

By gringoloid on May 31, 2007, 11:37 in Friendly Talkzone.

arthur brode says on May 31, 2007, 13:03:

pretty soon iam going to have to get a REAL job .

http://www.calirentals.net/

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Waterdawg says on May 31, 2007, 13:17:

Flowers are not alone ! I can tell right now Art that I am getting killed with this huge Peso drop (against the dollar ) .. I am not sure how low it can go & I will still be able to compete in the USA & Europe with leather .. I truly believe the Colombian Govt. is making a huge mistake by not interveining in a big way ..

0 funny, 0 helpful.

podborski says on May 31, 2007, 14:06:

and the guy importing goods for sale in Colombia disagrees with you!

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Waterdawg says on May 31, 2007, 14:33:

Yep , but then he is having to deal with increase in his price due to inflation ! This ain't a pretty picture .. I think most Colombians are more worried about exports ( jobs lost ) .. How are things down South ?

0 funny, 0 helpful.

panthdave says on May 31, 2007, 15:40:

Well was just in Medellin Have not seen the effects yet.. Will be down in two weeks and lets see again..I have though adjusted my spending habits alittle.

Well was out Friday night with my GF and did not see as much people out as I use to..and few of my friends in Colombia decided not go out because they were alittle broke ...

Not stopping me that peso can go to 1000.00 I will just adjust my spending like which the export companies should do on unnecessary overhead and get thru this period..Many American companies need to budget all the time to tough times..

I am very happy and enjoy Medellin..

panthdave Miami

panthdave Miami

0 funny, 0 helpful.

billyb says on May 31, 2007, 16:13:

Pod, but the guy importing goods into Colombia... is competing with and killing the guy producing those same products in Colombia. The only ones winning here is China.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

ColombianoGringo says on May 31, 2007, 16:32:

I am heading to Bogota and San Andres next week ... and all I have to say is FUCK!!!

This is really kicking my ass. My trip gets more expensive everyday and I haven't even left yet.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

podborski says on May 31, 2007, 16:52:

I'm not trying to make light of it and I am also planning a visit the beginning of July (anyone going to be around Bogotá then? Anyone that doesn't want to beat me up anyways?) so it will hurt, especially the cost of the hotel.

Obviously people get hurt, and it isn't easy, but tell me it doesn't get you thinking waterdawg, on how you might streamline your business, manage somehow to stay competitive?

If it does slow the economy (looks like it will, it's a pretty bloody big move) then that starts the pendulum swinging the other way again as fewer foreign investors pile in, and more COP are sold to buy those chinese imports.

It all works out in the end, and I'm not saying it's an easy ride.

The problem is currencies almost always overshoot before coming back to a level that is 'liveable'.

Anyway, government interventions almost always fail, and are now taken as a real sign of weakness by bank traders and hedge funds.

Best thing the gov't can do is make life easier for businesses by lowering taxes, easing regulation and anything else that will help companies stay competitive.

Just trying to throw a different opinion out there, in keeping with my contrary nature.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

scotty says on May 31, 2007, 17:47:

not good time this is not a good time for gringos to be visiting or living in Colombia. I think this is only the beginning.

Get Rhythm, when you got the blues. Johnny Cash

0 funny, 0 helpful.

panthdave says on May 31, 2007, 18:23:

Oh Come on Go to Europe See How Much you Spend.. When you go down just make some adjustments and watch your spending..I Love Medellin and My GF go to Centro La Minorista instead of Carrefour. We now go out one night for a party night and have only one dinner night out for the week.. Instead we go to a Movie just examples
Sorry not stopping me I enjoy...Colombia(Medellin)..Mucho Feliz..

My rent has gone up...dramatically but making some changes to make up for the difference.
I did find out my renewal contract will not change in price in Pesos..thats a good sign..I guess....
I see the Peso going below 1500...Oh Well will make more changes.. Now if it goes below 1000 I will be getting alittle worried..
Also GF shares into the apartment and she works so thats good..

panthdave Miami

panthdave Miami

0 funny, 0 helpful.

ColombianoGringo says on May 31, 2007, 18:32:

Europe is no better My parents are leaving for England and Spain on Tuesday. With the Euro around $1.35, they are feeling the pinch as well. And Europe is expensive as hell to begin with.

I am afraid to think how low the dollar can go against the peso. I go to Colombia pretty often and may have to start taking advantavge of Hotel Tio and Hotel Abuelita when I go.

CG

0 funny, 0 helpful.

podborski says on May 31, 2007, 18:41:

see, it's a good thing it's going to bring families together! : )

0 funny, 0 helpful.

gringoloid says on May 31, 2007, 18:44:

yeah pod, I'll be in Bogota..... give me a call on my private email.......

0 funny, 0 helpful.

scotty says on May 31, 2007, 18:50:

thats not the point the point isnt look how much things cost in Europe or US or anywhere else. The point is many gringos have enjoyed living in Colombia and visiting Colombia because they get a good value for their dollar , euro. Now thats changing and it makes it not as tempting to be in Colombia.

Get Rhythm, when you got the blues. Johnny Cash

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Waterdawg says on May 31, 2007, 18:53:

I be here Pod.. I can't afford to leave ..lol .. just drop me a line with dates !

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Waterdawg says on May 31, 2007, 18:55:

Bottom Line Scotty . This is not good : Might get worse : and some times you just have to say , What the ---k over !

0 funny, 0 helpful.

podborski says on May 31, 2007, 19:51:

I'm looking at July 5th but haven't bought the ticket yet...I really can't afford the time away, but I'm pretty sure I'm going anyway!

I'm really looking forward to a few gin and tonics on the patio at the BBC across from Andino mall...

I'll email you both when I have my ticket.

(BTW, TACA still seems to have the best prices within SA if anyone is searching)

0 funny, 0 helpful.

podborski says on May 31, 2007, 19:55:

and I'll buy you a drink Waterdawg you poor bastard!

(Hey, I hear argy leather is damn good, and the peso has barely moved...)

0 funny, 0 helpful.

miamimike says on May 31, 2007, 20:35:

Go next door to Venezuela or Down to Argentina... Still a great exchange rate and lots of Fun,,,

"Wait a minute. What did you just say? You're predicting $4-a-gallon gas? That's interesting. I hadn't heard that." -- Feb. 28, 2008 --George W. Bush, Washington, D.C.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

goin_south says on May 31, 2007, 21:20:

Oh, yeah? Hey, Mike. I don't know, but I think I have asked and, didn't see an answer: Is the same thing as what is happening to the Peso:Dollar happening also, or not in the other South American countries?

Voy para del Sur

'what does it mean, when one of you (colombians) tell another: YOU WERE NOT/ARE NOT. 'COLOMBIAN ENOUGH'?? jejeje..a mixture, I think, of stupidity mixed with a false sense of arrogance.. How 'colombian' do you have to be? to be 'colombian enough

0 funny, 0 helpful.

goin_south says on May 31, 2007, 21:26:

I just confirmed my ticket to Bogota today, for a few weeks in advance. I can tell you this much: As I stayed online on kayak all day, in between clients today, checking flights moment by moment for the best times/prices, and from all three of Houston, New Orleans, or Baton Rouge, ... ALL DAY LONG... the more desirable flights, earlier in the morning, same day arrival lesser price, kept dimishing all day long. The options deteriorated almost by the hour, ... all through the day. And, you always know that a week ago, I - or, you - could have saved another $100 or so.

But, what I think I observed today was in effect, alot of people buying up plane tickets QUICKLY, for Colombia.

I'm okay, with what I finally got. But, the observation is what I am attempting to get across, here. Right or wrong, no se.

Voy para del Sur

0 funny, 0 helpful.

goin_south says on May 31, 2007, 22:12:

I doubt that. not that I haven't been wrong before, but...
I'm thinkin the 'bleeding' will stop at around 1705 to 1765

Voy para del Sur

0 funny, 0 helpful.

goin_south says on May 31, 2007, 22:12:

did you want me to be more precise? ;) Voy para del Sur

0 funny, 0 helpful.

goin_south says on May 31, 2007, 22:15:

Eschuche.....todos! I'm leaving for N.O. in a few hours to catch an airplane for Chicago for weekend seminar/convention.

Does anyone want that I extend a salutation to the Ever-Flappable Gomezman5???

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Brian858 says on May 31, 2007, 22:26:

Get use to the dollar dropping in value The United States is currently borrowing $665 billion annually from foreign lenders to finance the gap between payments to and receipts from the rest of the world, an amount equivalent to $5,500 per American household. This borrowing entails serious costs for the U.S. economy. However, these costs have been hidden for the past few years, predominantly by the historically low interest rates, which resulted from the Federal Reserve’s attempts to spur economic recovery after the 2001 recession and from a downturn in domestic investment. This happy scenario will not persist indefinitely, and when interest rates rise, the costs of U.S. borrowing will have serious economic consequences:

• With no improvement in the current account deficit, the external debt of the United States will rise from 24% of total U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of 2003 to 64% by 2014.

• The cost of servicing just the additional debt incurred from 2004 to 2014 will rise to 1.7% of GDP by 2014, the equivalent of $250 billion in 2004 dollars.

Recent declines in the value of the dollar, while a welcome development, must be more broadly based among a larger cross-section of trading partners to bring the international accounts of the United States back into rough balance. Specifically, nations that actively manage the value of their currencies must allow the value of these currencies to rise vis-à-vis the dollar.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

miamimike says on Jun 1, 2007, 00:26:

Going South,,,Value of the Bolivar(street) is over 4000:1USD Official Rate of the Bolivar is around 2150:1 USD.In Argentina the Peso is 3.08:1 USD,,,,

Miss Venezuela Candidates(definetely no Inflation here):
check out Trajes de Banos link
http://www.venezuelatuya.com/missvenezuela/index.htm

"Wait a minute. What did you just say? You're predicting $4-a-gallon gas? That's interesting. I hadn't heard that." -- Feb. 28, 2008 --George W. Bush, Washington, D.C.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

panthdave says on Jun 1, 2007, 03:21:

Yeah yesterday lost 75.00 Between Morning-Afternoon For July 4th week had a fare for 481.00 and ended up paying 556.00 by the end of the day by waiting for the same flight..Web seats sold out on Copa and had to take Economy...but did jump on web seats for 441.00 for Festival de Flores in Medellin..for that week.. was happy about that no more waiting I see the fare I want jumping right away..

Yes the Peso is strong but if you enjoy Colombia make a few other sacrifices which I have..

Peaceout

panthdave Miami

panthdave Miami

0 funny, 0 helpful.

scotty says on Jun 1, 2007, 04:10:

path what kind of sacrifices, like food?

Get Rhythm, when you got the blues. Johnny Cash

0 funny, 0 helpful.

cayita says on Jun 1, 2007, 05:30:

Argentina is strugling with inflation right now high and going higher. Yes the currency exchange is still good but your dollar does not go as far due to inflation

0 funny, 0 helpful.

panthdave says on Jun 1, 2007, 06:29:

Scotty Yes Food../Partying/ Nights out.. Instead of going out have a few friends over for few beers../ Don't go to Carrefour or Exito..unless they have the 10% deal going on thats good..Go to street vendors or the local markets where they bury the IVA...../ Instead of going out to a disco go to a movie.../
Yes takes more time for shopping but what the hell..Sacrifice..and you don't have all the convience or Carrefour or Exito with everything in one spot..

These little things will make the difference up..
I use to got out for dinner at least twice a week when I was down I cut down to once a week for a nice dinner out

Just like the States when you want to budget yourself..

panthdave Miami

panthdave Miami

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Lowell says on Jun 1, 2007, 06:30:

Gringo hurt much less I'd imagine that most Gringo's (the retired ones)that now live in Colombia own their houses, apartments, motorcycles, fruniture....... The rising peso will not dramaticly affect most of their lives.

The rising peso only means that we have less to spend out in public. This inturn lowers incomes of the locals and others that we visit for our goods and services.

So far I've canceled our vacation to Medellin for the Flower Festival, cut back on special food items, less beer(Bummer, but good for my gut and liver), not dinners out or fast food, scaled back the remodeling project in my house, canceled any further repair to my mother-in-laws house....

Who's getting hurt? Who are the victims? Are you Colombians that are happy with the direction the peso is going ready for the China invasion, where they gobble up most of the small stores and markets..... as in Panama and now have their eyes on the canal? Forget learning English and learn Chineese.

P.S. There's a surgical procedure called a "Plexiautomy(sp?). It's where a piece of plexiglass is inserted up your butt. Why? So people who have their head up their butts all the time can see where they are going. Very popular in the States and soon to be popular in other countries.

Alfred E. Newman. "What. Me Worry?"

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Lowell says on Jun 1, 2007, 06:35:

forgot "Plexiautomy" also requires that a hole be greated in the gut with a piece of plexiglass inserted enabling the person a view.

Alfred E. Newman. "What. Me Worry?"

0 funny, 0 helpful.

panthdave says on Jun 1, 2007, 06:38:

Lowell You cancelled Fesitval De Flores Ah Come On. That bad..You can still go just don't go crazy on the spending..

Cut out half of the entertainment costs...

panthdave Miami

panthdave Miami

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Waterdawg says on Jun 1, 2007, 06:55:

I always get a kick ( well maybe not to much ) out of the Gringo Bashing that gos on .. Colombia ( and the rest of LA. ) problem ( peso aside for the moment ) is and will continue to be China .. They are eating our lunch and gettin ready to take over our Breakfast and Dinner ! One of the leather Company's I use to work with is going nuts trying to compete with them in there price range .. Bad Move ...

CHINA !

You mentioned them in Panama ; You should see the expansion ( china Ware ) in Ecuador .. The folks over there are non to happy . They are trying to tighten the immigration laws in hopeS of stemming the Red Tide .

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Waterdawg says on Jun 1, 2007, 06:57:

livefreeordie .." I have to laugh at all these gringos getting their asses kicked by the declining dollar. "

.. You find humor in that ??

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Waterdawg says on Jun 1, 2007, 06:58:

Pod I love Bombay !

0 funny, 0 helpful.

cayita says on Jun 1, 2007, 07:05:

yep waterdog but it is PC to hate the US and to view the US as the bully. You are right about China. It takes only a moment to lock the doors on a factory in Colombia, years to open one. People are just asleep at the switch.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Waterdawg says on Jun 1, 2007, 07:34:

Cayita ! Wholly Molly Andy ! .. We finally agree on something !

0 funny, 0 helpful.

miamimike says on Jun 1, 2007, 07:43:

I've been mentioning China on this Site For Months and how they will soon take Colombia to the Cleaners on domestic production(cut flowers, textiles,ect). China still has not really floated their Currency which many economists still peg at being 40% undervalued. How does a country like Col (or the usa) compete against a country like China with this currency inequity/ Impossible and when it really hits home in Col the wailing will really start,,,its just getting started now,,,The Old Colombian Money families will not miss a beat income wise as they will control the Distribution and Retail of Chinese made goods so no pain will be suffered by them,,,Life for them will continue as usual,,,
China signs all these deals with Col as well as other Latin American nations to export all types of commodities(oil, iron ore, bauxite ect)out of the country then send it back in the form of cheaply priced products killing the Local small Col companies,,,

"Wait a minute. What did you just say? You're predicting $4-a-gallon gas? That's interesting. I hadn't heard that." -- Feb. 28, 2008 --George W. Bush, Washington, D.C.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Waterdawg says on Jun 1, 2007, 08:03:

Mike ! .. " The Old Colombian Money families will not miss a beat income wise as they will control the Distribution and Retail of Chinese made goods so no pain will be suffered by them,,,Life for them will continue as usual "

.................................................................

This is just another topic that gets touchy when Gringos & Colombians talk .. I always get myself in trouble down here ( 4 years ) when I bring up how the High White Spanish Family's that have controlled and milked the people of Latin America for 400 years now ...
.. Colombia is no different

You know I use to live right across the street from the " IL " office in Panama .. how is it we never met ?

0 funny, 0 helpful.

miamimike says on Jun 1, 2007, 08:14:

Waterdawg--I never spent much time in Panama only in Bilbao when some of the ships I worked on stopped there before transiting the Panama Canal,,,and that was in the mid 80s

"Wait a minute. What did you just say? You're predicting $4-a-gallon gas? That's interesting. I hadn't heard that." -- Feb. 28, 2008 --George W. Bush, Washington, D.C.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

poco says on Jun 1, 2007, 08:29:

Explain how this is a BIG MISTAKE Ecuador dollarized in 1997 (BIG mistake).

Facts, something you seem to ignore, are that Ecuador was on the verge of economic collapse, hyperinflation, economy worsening etc. BEFORE they adopted the U.S. Dollar.

I think some people are filled with glee if others can be brought down to their level. Way toooo much trouble to bring yourself UP.

Meddling with systems by the clueless seems to always have an adverse impact on the poor.

CIA Factbook cut

Ecuador has substantial petroleum resources, which have accounted for 40% of the country's export earnings and one-third of central government budget revenues in recent years. Consequently, fluctuations in world market prices can have a substantial domestic impact. In the late 1990s, Ecuador suffered its worst economic crisis, with natural disasters and sharp declines in world petroleum prices driving Ecuador's economy into free fall in 1999. Real GDP contracted by more than 6%, with poverty worsening significantly. The banking system also collapsed, and Ecuador defaulted on its external debt later that year. The currency depreciated by some 70% in 1999, and, on the brink of hyperinflation, the MAHAUD government announced it would dollarize the economy. A coup, however, ousted MAHAUD from office in January 2000, and after a short-lived junta failed to garner military support, Vice President Gustavo NOBOA took over the presidency. In March 2000, Congress approved a series of structural reforms that also provided the framework for the adoption of the US dollar as legal tender. Dollarization stabilized the economy, and growth returned to its pre-crisis levels in the years that followed. Under the administration of Lucio GUTIERREZ - January 2003 to April 2005 - Ecuador benefited from higher world petroleum prices. However, the government under Alfredo PALACIO reversed economic reforms that reduced Ecuador's vulnerability to petroleum price swings and financial crises, allowing the central government greater access to oil windfalls and disbursing surplus retirement funds.

Looks like Ecuadors economy, with one quarter the population of Colombia, has more to do with how they conduct their affairs.

"Violence is the first refuge of the incompetent" - Isaac Asimov

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Waterdawg says on Jun 1, 2007, 08:33:

Mike ! I thought you use to hang out with the " IL " crowd . My mistake !

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Waterdawg says on Jun 1, 2007, 08:41:

Poco ! .. Not to pick a fight , but to quote a " CIA " report is not gospel to say the least . Ecuador's number one export is people not oil . It's number one import is moneys earned by those folks working in the USA. & Spain ! Oil income & sea food & flowers follow !

.. Ecuador problem was not it's currency but its leaders.. Ecuador is always going to have a problem because of it's large indigeous population.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

paisa29 says on Jun 1, 2007, 08:41:

Que es esto?
No entiendo Que es esto?
No entiendo porque solamente hablan de como el Dolar afecta a los gringos, por que nadie se ha preocupado por los Colombianos quienes dependen de los giros que les envian sus familiares desde el exterior o de las personas que viven de la industria textil,flores, etc?
Estas personas son verdaderamente los mas afectados.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

cayita says on Jun 1, 2007, 08:46:

paisa The Colombians that I know fo the most part have got their heads in the clouds over this strong peso. They are all convinced they have arrived and it is just up and more up from here.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

poco says on Jun 1, 2007, 08:53:

Sorry Ecuador's number one export is people not oil

I'll ask the CIA fact book folks to factor this for ALL the countries so we will have a standardized comparison.

"Violence is the first refuge of the incompetent" - Isaac Asimov

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Simon says on Jun 1, 2007, 08:53:

GO PESO GOOOOOOO!!!
GO PESO GOOOOOOO!!!

HERE'S SIMON!!!!

0 funny, 0 helpful.

kat1 (Moderator) says on Jun 1, 2007, 08:58:

gringoloid, why don't you instead of looking for a girl in Colombia, find one in the UK , the pound is still very strong in Colombia. :) and is strong against the dollar at the moment. you are hunting in the wrong country dear :P

forget the blue passport Now the Red passport is the new black :)

engage brain before opening mouth

0 funny, 0 helpful.

cayita says on Jun 1, 2007, 09:01:

yes waterdog "old money" run COlombia but do you think it is any different in the US or in Europe or England? Nope not much diff I think you would agree. So what to do what to do.... We are certainly not going to swim upstream. So if you want to play the game be one of those who distribute China's cheap goods in Colombia. It is just business and is nothing personal.

It is very interesting however how the information train feed into this. People were actually beleiving and I heard it on here how TLC was good for the rich and not the poor. Of course it was good for the rich but it was also good for the poor in jobs. What you are going to see is exactly what waterdog and Miamimike are talking about. Jobs going away and Chinese products flooding the market and like them I am so surprised that there is no outrage no political movement no graffiti that is anti-China? Now just why is that?

0 funny, 0 helpful.

poco says on Jun 1, 2007, 09:38:

Just the facts The Colombians that I know for the most part have got their heads in the clouds over this strong peso.

I'd say this is true in many cases, probably ALL OF A CERTAIN PERCENTAGE. ie: Importers and consumers of their products and some exports.

Imagine, buying a Peterbuilt Trailer rig for a 30% DISCOUNT from the price one year ago. Same goes for all heavy equipment.

However, I live in a rural town and about half the residents are on some kind of fixed income, pension or children working abroad and sending money. So far, NOT ONE new business has been created in the last 5 years. The only thing they see is INFLATION and not just a little.

I've always thought a strong peso was a good thing, exporters need to raise their prices, and after all, this is a world phenomenon.

Colombia needed to modernize and replace capital equipment / goods that are not manufactured or assembled in country.

I've noticed that (so far) the reduced cost of many CONSUMER items has NOT been passed on to the population. I'd say the importers are doing well and able to pass on any inflationary costs.

I think the "bitching" on this board about exporters being non-competitive started around 2,400 pesos to the dollar. Guess what? Due to inflation, the peso needs to be 2,650, NOT 1900.

Factoring in the high inflation rate with an exchange rate of 1900 will probably not allow the many small exporters to maintain any decent margin, current level of activity and definitely NOT expand.

I do agree that these fluctuations in currency sometimes “over shoot�?. I’ve considered opening a currency trading account and shorting the peso.

Road Construction – Armenia / Pereira Highway.

I’d suppose, according to some, this is another multinational company (CAT) sucking up Colombian pesos and for what? Build new roads? Hire some folks to operate the equipment? Improve conditions?

Yep, Colombia needs to build their own construction equipment and sell it where ???

"Violence is the first refuge of the incompetent" - Isaac Asimov

0 funny, 0 helpful.

gringoloid says on Jun 1, 2007, 09:38:

thanks for the suggestion kat, but...... i happen to like those olive skinned, brown-eyed, black haired beauties, like yourself.

I'm an amateur astronomer and I can see more of the universe on the equator.

The language would be a whole lot easier in the UK though, I have made some terrible blunders with my pobre espanol.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

podborski says on Jun 1, 2007, 10:14:

I've travelled a lot and I've rarely seen the combination of intelligent, ambitious, hard working and motivated people as I have seen in Colombia.

The rising peso is a tough pill to swallow, but it isn't the end of the world.

Do Colombians really want to be just selling commodities forever? That's a tough game to win. Better to focus on using your more valuable resources, talented people, to add some value to something.

No reason Colombian finished goods can't be sold anywhere in the world, except lack of confidence.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

griffbos says on Jun 1, 2007, 11:14:

I am surprised you haven't seen an effect yet , it is my understand 15,000 flower jobs have been lost and 77,000 texile jobs are gone now with the peso getting so strong, exports are getting hammered in Colombia by this.I am not happy with the drop in the dollar but at this point not changing my plans to go live there

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Waterdawg says on Jun 1, 2007, 11:34:

.." So if you want to play the game be one of those who distribute China's cheap goods in Colombia. It is just business and is nothing personal.. "
.........................................

Thanks but , no thanks . I'll stay true to my myself and my Colombian workers ! China can stick it .. I'll make it ( Gringo ingenuity )! lol

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Waterdawg says on Jun 1, 2007, 11:39:

griffbos Hang on tight , the storm is just on the other side of the hill !

0 funny, 0 helpful.

cayita says on Jun 1, 2007, 12:24:

waterdog for once I agree with you. oh my.....

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Janneman says on Jun 1, 2007, 15:56:

Not the peso is going up the dollar is going down... Cause I am getting more pesos for my euro since januari
lowest (Jan 31) 1956.12
highest (Mar 22) 3132.66

check it out: http://www.x-rates.com/

Anyone knows a good way to trade in currency without paying to much fees ? I own only Dutch banc-accounts and these bancs give a bad trade..

0 funny, 0 helpful.

goin_south says on Jun 1, 2007, 22:24:

anyone got a count on what the PCol/usa dollar did today?

I'm in Chicago, and here's a free tip for you: the next time you visit here,
If you like a good amber or pale, try Goose Island Honker's Ale!
Addicting.

Voy para del Sur...muy pronto.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

goin_south says on Jun 1, 2007, 23:28:

careful Dawg... she's agreeing with ya

Voy para del Sur

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Janneman says on Jun 2, 2007, 05:34:

http://www.x-rates.com/ here they tell me the peso did, check it graphical euro - peso and choose 7 months back. In half a year going 1/3 down is crazy ain't it.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

podborski says on Jun 2, 2007, 05:38:

I was looking at www.bloomberg.com and one of the headlines running across the top of the page was about the Colombian peso reaching 7 year highs.

The Canadian Dollar just hit 34 year highs but wasn't mentioned...

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Janneman says on Jun 2, 2007, 05:47:

http://fxtop.com/ reality is a party-killer :(

0 funny, 0 helpful.

griffbos says on Jun 2, 2007, 05:58:

where did you find the cheap flight to Medellin curiuos, PM me if you can

0 funny, 0 helpful.

panthdave says on Jun 2, 2007, 06:19:

Goin South XE emails daily at 5:00 Current Exchange. Griffbos Cheap flights I have found copaair.com but thats if your in Miami they have awesome deals right now..Select only webfare if only economy is there look at a few more deals..

Just got including taxes 441.00 for Flores de festival week with Copa MIA-MDE roundtrip but getting 481.00 other weeks..but you need act fast those seats go...

panthdave Miami

panthdave Miami

0 funny, 0 helpful.

griffbos says on Jun 2, 2007, 06:27:

rubito they same thing happened in El Salvador, they went to the dollar prices went to the dollar( the next highest mind you) yet wages awent the other way down, friends in the states have said they have to send twice as much money home to family so they can still buy the same amount before they went to the dollar

0 funny, 0 helpful.

griffbos says on Jun 2, 2007, 06:37:

x-rates is a bit messed up with there numbers, waterdawg i think you might be right in regards to the peso if it get to strong then I go back to the states to work unless I making good money in Colombia, in which case I will not need my savings for a good 10 or more years, and I can set and wait ofr a stronger dollar to withdraw from the ATM, I heading for 3 months see what i get for job offers and then go from there , I need to be there to look for work.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

calikitty1 says on Jun 2, 2007, 07:49:

Ah, Rubito. Yo creo que tú no tienes razón. Again, you show your ignorance of Colombia and South America. It is amazing how you continue to pontificate on countries you know nothing about like Argentina, Ecuador, and Colombia. An eighty-day occasional visit to a country does not qualify you as an expert. Would you not be more comfortable as a card carrying member of one of these?

Witness for Peace -- An organization supporting peace and justice in Colombia by changing U.S. policies that contribute to poverty and oppression. RUBITO FOR PRESIDENT OF THIS ONE.

Colombia Support Network -- Working to improve the human rights situation in Colombia and build solidarity between the peoples of North America and Colombia.

Peace Brigades International -- Provides observer teams protect human rights defenders who suffer repression due to their non-violent work in Colombia.

North Shore Colombia Solidarity Committee -- An organization focusing attention on the fact that a portion of the electricity generated by Salem Harbor Power Plant comes from a coal mine in northern Colombia that is displacing communities surrounding the mine.

Solidaridad Colombia -- A community of western Massachusetts residents dedicated to supporting peace efforts in Colombia and solidarity actions across the United States.

School of the Americas Watch -- SOAW is working to close the U.S. Army's School of the Americas where Colombian soldiers receive training. Many SOA graduates have been accused of human rights abuses in Colombia.

Peoples' Global Action (Multilingual) -- An organization coordinating the global struggles against corporate domination, including a campaign against Plan Colombia.

Please, stop displaying your ignorance. Por Favor, no hables tanto y vete al grano. Lo bueno de Robito es su personalidad.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

elreydelostrolls says on Jun 2, 2007, 08:56:

.." I have to laugh at all these gringos getting their asses kicked by the declining dollar. "

.. You find humor in that ??

He's a sick puppy who delights in the misery of the pasty gringo losing his one advantage in Colombia - money.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Diez Y Siete says on Jun 2, 2007, 09:14:

Because the dollar is going down, is it going to make colombian prices go up or down(like the actual amount of pesos for things), im not exactly wise in economics. But i realized today this is going to make college alot more expensive, between tuition,rent,food and such all costing more. I wont even leave for college until this time next year, im hoping the peso doesnt keep going down or else i will have to take out loans.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

cayita says on Jun 2, 2007, 10:58:

Umm Jannem The Dollar hit 7 week highs against the Euro yesterday. It is not going down and I can not find any exchange rate that shows the euro gaining against the peso. It is not happening go figure again, your numbers are wrong, your comparison is wrong and basically sorry to tell you that you are wrong. ;)Miss information is what is causing exporters here to go out of business with little action from our governemnt.
The people here are going to wake up one day and be out of work. Maybe some of you guys will find something funny in that too?
A euro at 2545 where it is right now is not a euro of months or days ago, in January it was at 2950+- and same goes for in March/April, it is a long way from their now. Basically it has dropped 400 pesos in the last month or so which is a little more than the dollar dollar has done. If you are exporting to Europe you are feeling the strong peso cause that is just what it is a strong peso. Please stop the missinformation.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

podborski says on Jun 2, 2007, 11:07:

diez y siete without going into a long economics lesson, a stronger currency usually is anti-inflationary, so in theory prices should come down in Colombia.

But there might be other factors outweighing the benefits of the strong currency, so maybe there will be inflation, just not as bad as it would have been without the strong currency.

Which just goes to show you why economics is NOT a science.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

panthdave says on Jun 2, 2007, 11:09:

Don't understand Gringos getting there Ass Kicked.. By the declining Dollar...What about the ones that don't care.. My rent only raised about 60.00 in a few months per month. Yes if you went down with no cushion at all then you did not think things out cause you know in South American Countries the exchange can go up or down..I enjoy Colombia not for the exchange I enjoy Colombia for what the country is about and a enjoy being in Colombia..from the stressful and hectic living in Miami..
For anybody who goes down have alittle cushion for the exchange because it can go bad or good..

Peace Out..

panthdave Miami

panthdave Miami

0 funny, 0 helpful.

podborski says on Jun 2, 2007, 11:16:

what the dollar did vs the euro over 7 weeks is meaningless.

Fact is, the euro was launched (if memory serves me, no need for a computer you know) at about $1.17 US, dropped steadily to $0.85 or so, and then went straight up to where it is now, $1.3440.

So to say the dollar has not fallen against the euro is a bit of what I'd call misinformation, miss know it all.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

podborski says on Jun 2, 2007, 11:21:

or is it karma? I get confused by all the new age terminology

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Miguel_Clavo says on Jun 2, 2007, 11:53:

I think i will go back to trusting my Ouija Board....... i will let you know what it says after a few beers.....=)

Just my opinion...

Miguel_Clavo =)..aka, DragonSlayer..2-0..Colombia es pasión!

"I would rather die living life, than to live a dying life."........ Oh, and my PM is always ON. Great Bumper Sticker: "Home of the Free, Because of the Brave"

0 funny, 0 helpful.

morphus says on Jun 2, 2007, 11:57:

UC "He's a sick puppy who delights in the misery of the pasty gringo losing his one advantage in Colombia - money"

One advantage? What about us looking like Hollywood actors? Thats an advantage :)

0 funny, 0 helpful.

elreydelostrolls says on Jun 2, 2007, 12:11:

I haven't seen any gringos in Colombia who look remotely like Hollywood actors. If they did they would stay home and bang gringa pussy. The gringos that I have seen with one exception all look like fat pasty bald losers. They look like carp that should be filleted and sold by the pound. I read one recent story about a Nicaraguan teenager who got knocked up by an old gringo. She and her brother carved him up into little pieces. That was the feel-good story of the day! http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070530/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/nicaragua_us_death;_ylt=AvkSFmsi3NSGN6p8qgjnbGy3IxIF

0 funny, 0 helpful.

panthdave says on Jun 2, 2007, 12:18:

Actually its changing in Medellin... I know of a few friends that are not bad looking..and party in South Beach and go to Medellin to party and Medellin is becoming a hot spot for nightlife which noone has mentioned with excellent DJ's..I talked to an Italian DJ who was in South Beach for a week exclusive work for a club there and he said definitely Medellin is becoming a hot spot for nightlife and good music...I am not bald well not yet thank god and 37 and had my share of gringas..in Miami..I enjoy Medellin for what is and again the exchange has not effected me because I am use to anyways South Beach and Miami pricing which Medellin will not get close too...I don't care what anybody says..Now if your from a low cost of living area maybe you see the effects..

So Peace Out ...Viva Medellin and Colombia..

You know what screw it like somebody let the PESO GO NUTS AND GET STRONGER DON"T CARE LOVE COLOMBIAN

Had enough of this..

Peace Out Again and Viva the COP...

panthdave Miami

panthdave Miami

0 funny, 0 helpful.

podborski says on Jun 2, 2007, 13:42:

jeez UC if you have to wait for a story like that to feel good, your life must be pretty sad. But we know that already.

I know you're the king of the trolls and all, but you're not half as clever or funny as pow wow.

Don't you get bored? Guess not much else to do if you're on a mental disability pension.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

podborski says on Jun 2, 2007, 13:45:

at rubito I stopped reading that one after the first 2 paragraphs. Whaaaaat? jajaja

Since all the crazies seem to come out at once it makes me wonder if they aren't all related, ya know?

0 funny, 0 helpful.

cayita says on Jun 2, 2007, 14:28:

pod go back to school and learn how to read. I was countering a completely false statement by someone. It does not take know it all to do that it just takes the truth.

You are typical gringo. You think you know everything about what is going on in Colombia and you don't even live here. So when a Colombian makes a point you get your panties in a bunch. I have noticed a lot fo this on this site. This site is not for Colombians it is for gringo's who think they know Colombia and attack anyone that spoils the illusion for them. That friends is this site in a nutshell.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

morphus says on Jun 2, 2007, 14:57:

UC, whats there to feel good about? At least she was knocked up by a gringo. Theres more chance of a gringo supporting the baby than the local perros. Now he's dead and she has to become a puta. And putas don't earn much in Nicaragua. $3usd a pop if they are lucky.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

bueno_pues says on Jun 2, 2007, 15:27:

"You are typical gringo. You think you know everything about what is going on in Colombia and you don't even live here. So when a Colombian makes a point you get your panties in a bunch. I have noticed a lot fo this on this site. This site is not for Colombians it is for gringo's who think they know Colombia and attack anyone that spoils the illusion for them. That friends is this site in a nutshell."

Si, Senora, tienes razon.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

podborski says on Jun 2, 2007, 15:42:

good thing you're here to straighten us dumb gringos out in regards to colombia cayita.

Me for example, I was always impressed with how intelligent, down to earth and well mannered colombians are.

Now I know there are exceptions, thank you.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

panthdave says on Jun 2, 2007, 15:44:

Pod Thanks for Fixing that issue...Well Said.. panthdave Miami

panthdave Miami

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Irothko says on Jun 3, 2007, 13:25:

Disagree The rising peso helps the American worker, and the US budget deficit.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

goin_south says on Jun 3, 2007, 19:33:

About those prices in ECUADOR,...... I'm not real sure that is 'ACROSS THE BOARD'. Now, I know a gringo from this site, who had a gf in Colombia, but decided on buying NEW, UNDER CONSTRUCTION PENTHOUSE CONDOS, in both PANAMA AND ECUADOR, about a year ago, because of what he said was good quality, cheap prices, and (he felt) more security.

Voy para del Sur

0 funny, 0 helpful.

BAQ says on Jun 4, 2007, 13:28:

it is what it is All the crying wont change anything. It is what it is. Living on the coast, I have seen several businesses here close due to the high peso and low dollar, the cheap China textile prices are killing them. In Bogota, the flower market is laying people off, American importers are starting to turn to other countries to import produce and are expected NOT to renew yearly contracts here in Colombia, so for a FEW colombians, yes they are high in the clouds for importing american goods at a cheap price but for the MAJORITY of colombians, the high peso is becoming a disaster and on the streets here in Barranquilla, people are TALKING about it. If the President or the Colombian congress doesnt do something to stop the hyperinflation of the peso, the long term affects wont be good.

YES, part of the problem is the dollar but the EURO and the British Pound are also taking a beating against the peso. While the dollar does play a role in the devaluation, the peso is also playing a role in the gap.

I dont expect to see the dollar increase any time soon, so hold on, its going to be a bumpy ride.

Dont you just LOVE this new global economy hahaha

Semper Fidelis !

0 funny, 0 helpful.

goin_south says on Jun 4, 2007, 22:31:

Yeah, so.... the U.S. just had reports last week (so-said, driving the stock market in the USA higher) of slowed inflation. So, it truly is global, and not just country-for-country.

Voy para del Sur

0 funny, 0 helpful.

panthdave says on Jun 5, 2007, 04:27:

The effects are Great and Amazing.. Its about time we are going to have a great summer in Miami..Latin American Business are spending like crazy here in Miami with weak dollar..No Don't stop.. Its about time United States gets its share..
United States WANTS YOUR MONEY ...

Calling all out come and spend your money in the States Now is the time..We want your money..

This might be the best Summer Miami has every experienced in many years with the Weak Dollar...I rather it stay this way..

Peace Out.

panthdave Miami

panthdave Miami

0 funny, 0 helpful.

elreydelostrolls says on Jun 5, 2007, 05:54:

The media reports of slower inflation are leaving out the key point that this is without the cost of food and energy. The actual inflation rate is running about 6.2% and there is nothing the Fed can do about it. The last jobs report actually had a phantom 317,000 new jobs factored in because they were messing with their Birth/Death model - no new jobs actually were created so the unemployment rate is on the rise. There are several classic signs that a recession has begun or is imminent.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

suizo says on Jun 5, 2007, 05:59:

JUST TELL ME... Should I buy now Pesos or not? I am going to Colombia in December...
Any predictions?

Thanks

0 funny, 0 helpful.

panthdave says on Jun 5, 2007, 06:33:

Ask Miguel he has Ouija Board-The PBH Physic panthdave Miami

panthdave Miami

0 funny, 0 helpful.

cayita says on Jun 5, 2007, 06:35:

panthdave you have the right attitude. Let these bobos that want to throw stones at the dollar have their fun just make sure you get their money. ;)

the other positive side of this. I walked into my Exito and there on sale was my favorite item from the US that I have missed so much. I was unable to get it here before but now there it was. I do beleive the strong peso is going to bring more of this. So if it does not effect your job your quality of life should increase.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Ctg Bound says on Jun 5, 2007, 07:30:

suizo I wouldn't buy Pesos now, their over valued, hopefully by then they will have gone back above 2,000 pesos to the dollar mark.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

panthdave says on Jun 5, 2007, 07:49:

Hope Not I want to get stronger or Stay where it is... Well I hope not for my sake.We need business in Miami...

panthdave Miami

panthdave Miami

0 funny, 0 helpful.

podborski says on Jun 5, 2007, 09:17:

you what this means don't you? us canadians are going to be invading colombia in even greater numbers, the loonie is over 94 cents and heading for par...or above.

I haven't done the cross rates (don't know how to use a computer too well), but I think we must be at least holding ground with the peso.

We're taking over the world I tell you. Mike Myers and Pamela Anderson were just the advance scouts.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Ctg Bound says on Jun 5, 2007, 09:19:

podborski http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?amt=1&from=CAD&to=COP&submit=Convert

Not quite.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

panthdave says on Jun 5, 2007, 09:23:

Yes We Need the Canadians in S.Florida This fall the Canadians will be spending like crazy..Which is great need there business in S.Florida..They won't be holding on to there money like they use too now there going to spend..Smart move Washington to weaken the dollar...

I am telling you United States wants your Money...Keep the Dollar Weak..We need to have all foreign countries spend there money on the United States..

panthdave Miami

panthdave Miami

0 funny, 0 helpful.

elk says on Jun 5, 2007, 09:36:

ctg Bound I wouldn't buy Pesos now, their over valued, hopefully by then they will have gone back above 2,000 pesos to the dollar mark.

I just hit your financial exchange rate site and the peso was at 1,769 which is far lower than other sites? I'm also getting a higher rate of exchange at the ATM machines than presented at Yahoo financial. (strange)

0 funny, 0 helpful.

pedro says on Jun 5, 2007, 09:45:

Exito ¿Exito now has sex toys?

que nota!

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Ctg Bound says on Jun 5, 2007, 09:51:

elk Its not my site, but I just checked it with another site which is subscription only and its the same.

As to your card, I doubt that there are many withdrawls in Colombian pesos off it, so the company doesn't update their F/x rates as regualry as they should, my card is similair and if I plan on taking any money out and see the pesos drop, I rush to the ATM as my card is normally a day or two behind, the same goes if the peso gains strength, I just hold back a day or two until the bank have adjusted their internal rates.

I have been doing this for 5.5 years, making a nice profit on it.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

juanalejo says on Jun 5, 2007, 10:27:

Strong Peso Traditional indicators might say that the economy will slow down as the peso gets stronger, and it might. But this traditional bitching from a bunch of people who clearly have no idea about real economics has been going on in this site since the peso was at 3000, yet the Colombian economy has grown steadily at the highest rates since then. So clearly none of us have any idea about economics, yet those of us who have believed in Colombia regardless seem to have made lots of money in these past few years unlike those that bitched on a daily basis.

Maybe that is why GIB dissappeared, he got tired of bitching and predicting the total opposite of what really happened and he had to go a find new fans of his pesimistic view of life. I surely hope the peso stops falling, but most companies here are concentrating on productivity rather than cheap exports, and maybe that might be the clue to the continuous growth we are still experiencing.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Ctg Bound says on Jun 5, 2007, 10:35:

juanalejo I agree with you, in fact early in 2006 I predicted for the end of last year that the fair value for the peso to the dollar was somewhere between 2,000 - 2,200 pesos.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Frank Rizzo says on Jun 5, 2007, 10:45:

juanalejo, i think concentrating on productivity is necessary. Though, it is likley that the strong peso will result in some type of economic slow-down. This is not the US, where people have confidence in 14 month recessions. This is truly a 3rd world country that has experienced some great growth, though as we all know it's "fear and greed" that drive this animal. Fear being much stronger than greed. If colombia was a futures market, i'd be buying calls or selling puts with 12 months time.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

juanalejo says on Jun 5, 2007, 10:53:

Frank You might be right, I am just saying that what you are stating is the same story that I have heard since I joined this thread a few years ago and yet we have not experienced this type of growth in years. Our currency is 30% stronger yet we grow more year by year. Who knows, but certainly it is not us.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

cayita says on Jun 5, 2007, 10:56:

Juan I don't know but I would like to hear your opinion as to where you think the peso is going? Whoever this GIB is it seems he went on the record. Maybe he was wrong? I have no idea but I know how easy it is to stay on the sidelines and not make a prediction about the future and then belittle people who took a position.
It is very easy to stay in the stands and much more difficult to get in the game. You see when in the game you are going to be two things, a winner or a loser. When predicting the economic future you are going to be two things, right or wrong. If you just set around in the stands and pick apart the players than what does that say about you? I will take a GIB over that any day of the week.

So for me and our business and the future of our employees please tell me where you think the peso is going and why?

Thanks for your help.

Just for the record we are putting our personal economic future in a belief that the peso is going to continue to strengthen. If we are wrong it is going to cost us dearly, but at least we are in the game. So if we are wrong you can come back and say how wrong I was.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

cayita says on Jun 5, 2007, 11:05:

PS If I was not one of the GIB's who thought the peso was going to go down at some point over these last years then I guess I would have made some decisions earlier and saved a lot of money. I was wrong about where I thought the peso was going. We lost money because of that wrong decision. Others got it right and made money. What pisses me off is the noodle that steps in at the buzzer and tells all how wrong people were when they were either right or they had no position at all.
There day will come as I have been wrong and I have been right. They will be wrong one day and for those who are actually playing the game I will be happy to buy you a beer or whatever and we can set around and laugh about your bad decision and I will pick up the tab. When I am wrong and you are right then you laugh at me and you pick up the tab. If you merely set by and venture nothing in your belief, you are not invited.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

juanalejo says on Jun 5, 2007, 11:05:

Cayita I am not an economist so I would hardly be the person to ask, yet I do keep myself informed and if you are somebody like me that reads on a daily basis newspapers like Portafolio or La República or magazines like Poder or Dinero the only feeling I get is that the investment still pours in, lots of large companies are moving in on a permanent basis, so I would tend to think that they know better that me(and certainly more than those scare mongers in here). So my opinion is that as long as the dollar continues to get weeker internationally and the investment continues the peso will get stronger and maybe since most investors are not into cheap labor products, our economy can accelerate its transition into a more developed one.

And the trend will continue, as the investments have poured regardless of what people think of Colombia, can you imagine now that magazines like Business Week in the USA have sent us into center stage. That can only be a multiplier for investments, lets hope it all continues for the better.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

cayita says on Jun 5, 2007, 11:11:

juan you can not make exact investement decision based on history and that is what you find in those reads. You have to project the future. It takes time and money to get an operation up and running and if you are not right two years from now then you are dead in the water. So find me a magazine that can tell me what things are doing two years from now instead of yesterday and that would be a help. Those guys don't want to print anything that is forward looking as it is in print and they look very stupid when they are wrong. So they print the present and then it hits the stands and it is history. We read what they right and try to predict the future but it is far from accurate and there is ALWAYS someone that is betting against you.

So you are going on the record that you beleive the peso will continue to climb over the next severel years based on the info you have right now?

0 funny, 0 helpful.

cayita says on Jun 5, 2007, 11:17:

I know people right now who are betting against me here in Colombia. They are holding onto their finger nails as exporters and betting everything that the peso will drop. We are on that side too a little but we are moving toward diversification in case that does not pay out. If we could predict the future well hell we would not go to the import side we would just wait it out or we would close the export side and concentrate 100% on imports. But we are going to look pretty stupid if we put all this money to work on the import side and the peso drops. Pretty stupid indeed and it will make us want to jump into a rum bottle but that is business.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

juanalejo says on Jun 5, 2007, 11:19:

Cayita As I said I am not an economist, so I will not put my hand on fire, but I do think the peso will either rise or stabilize, but I would hardly think it will go on the other direction. Most magazines here predicted the dollar to fall, yet none predicted it would go this far. Most magazines predicted last year that the economy would grow somewhere in between 4 to 5%, yet none predicted it would grow a couple of points over that. My feeling the economy will continue strong as most of the growth has come from construction, industrial goods and the service industry and very little from coffee or flower exports.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

cayita says on Jun 5, 2007, 11:28:

yep I hear ya the economists analsyse data and then tell us what we already know. Maybe make a prediction but they rarely get it right.

What worries me here is the speed that the economy has grown. That worries me a great deal. If it is a bubble and it bursts then I know those magazines will be spitting fire and the gloomiest of the gloomiest articles will flow. But if you don't get on the train then you are left behind and that is no fun either. So we are taking a gamble that things will continue good for the next couple years. If we are wrong then well we are wrong and will just have ot wait out the next cycel and maybe our kids can benifit from our decsion cause we sure won't. But you really should not be so hard on people that try to predict the economic future. It is not something that you can predict but something you have to beleive you can predict. ;)

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Ctg Bound says on Jun 5, 2007, 11:45:

Tinto I wouldn't call it a bubble at 6%, but if the economy is not used to 6% growth and has been chugging along or years at less growth, it is generally classed as overheating.

With the current peso strength and interest rates going up, I would expect to see the economy pulling back a bit, which is what the central bank wants.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Ctg Bound says on Jun 5, 2007, 11:46:

cayita Maybe I missed it regarding peso predictions, but what are yours?

0 funny, 0 helpful.

cayita says on Jun 5, 2007, 12:29:

I beleive the peso will continue to strengthen or it will remain level or it will go down. Hows that? ;)

6% may not seem much to an economy like the US but I got to tell you it is a little unnerving to see in the last severel years the amount of change here in our cities. They are booming in realestate anyway. Bogota is in such a boom that if you leave for more than a month and come back you don't recognize the street you are on. ;)Medellin as well.

It just feels too fast to quick but maybe that is just the way it is going to be. Anyway it is a gamble to hook your suspenders onto the tail of a rocket ship but it sure isn't any fun being left behind either.

Here is the rub. Is that 6% "real" growth? What is the percentage of growth from outside investment, speculation and that sort? What happens if something throws a monkey wrench in that speculative side to the growth and it reverses itself and unwinds? That is what keeps me up at night with the strong peso. It is very easy to make a case that a strong peso while it attracts forign investment it harms real growth in an emrging market?

If you want to compare the growth of Asian nations to Colombia than I think you have to take this into consideration; They are not allowing their currencies to float and have a policy in place to keep them artificially low. Here comes Colombia and the exact opposit is happening. That forign investment is being allowed to heat up the economy and the currency which is hurting exports. Is Colombia strong enough to sustain growth with a weakening export front? All I can say to that is it has been able to longer than I thought it would and it just might make it.

As for me I will be looking at unemployment numbers to guide me through this torrent. If those numbers don't show continual improvement then this boom could very easily be a flash in the pan. If it is real growth than as I understand economics you will see job growth along side GDP.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Ctg Bound says on Jun 5, 2007, 12:44:

cayita Job growth is a lagging indicator and is generally 1.5-2 years behind GDP growth. There is also the problem with Colombia of a lot of people working, but not working as much as they want, who would not appear as un-employed, those people are probably taking up the employment growth at the moment, so you are not seeing any decrease in the official numbers, seing as they will be the most employable.

There is a lot of money floating around the world at the moment, I would be surprised that this year we don't see a financial problem occuring in some Country, bank, hedge fund, etc. As soon as this happens I expect to see the peso weaken dramatically, much as we saw a year ago, not back to 3,000 pesos to the dollar though, but probably a good 500 pesos or so lower than it is now.

I have zero doubt there will be a financial problem, that most likely is not connected to Colombia, just when is the $1M question, we are overdue for one in my opnion.

0 funny, 0 helpful.