Peso at 2,609 to the dollar

arthur brode says on Jun 26, 2006, 08:17:

my rent just went down to $96.00 dollars/month! and that Filet MiÑon steak dinner with mushroom sauce at LeÑos y Carbon is now costing $6 dollars!

http://www.calirentals.net/

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Crazy4Cali says on Jun 26, 2006, 09:47:

that's tough those prices really make it hard to get by, down there. Estoy muy celoso! :)

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Gator says on Jun 26, 2006, 09:59:

Trading Currency or Betting on Future Events.... can be hazardous to your health but I look for a continuing weakness in the peso vis á vie the US Dollar. Good for anyone thinking to buy but one place I would be very cautious of is buying any apartmentos in a planned uncompleted building-especially in Cartagena.

For me-Great! Just like getting a raise daily on my US Dollars in accounts in the USA so my standard of living increases but Mrs.Gator's two sisters, who off for a months visit to the USA the first part of August, are taking a beating.


"SIC FRIATUR CRUSTUM DULCE. OBESA CANTAVIT."

"Credidi pretio parvo emere et magno vendere tibi in animo fuisse!" .

0 funny, 0 helpful.

arthur brode says on Jun 26, 2006, 17:24:

como duele :)

http://www.calirentals.net/

0 funny, 0 helpful.

jamesr24 says on Jun 26, 2006, 17:46:

gator so if you were a gambling man, how high will the peso climb to the dollar over the next few months. and what do you base your thoughts on. And I am sure you know, it is tough to trade the peso on the fx, too thinly traded. Look forward to hearing from you...

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Gator says on Jun 26, 2006, 19:03:

James24 June July August September are particularly bad months to try and second guess the peso as are November December January February March April and May. I am not that big a gambling man so I keep the bulk of my money in US Currency and in US Banks-remember the Mexican peso problem in the early 1990's.

Other signs are out there one being the price of coffee on the international market which dropped to $1.04 cents/lb which is down from $1.32 cents/pound the first of the year. The central bank continues to buy pesos several big project have been put on hold.

Peso in 1992 by month
(January1) 638,61 640,52 636,54 641,98 653,58 664,37 695,36 702,52 691,90 699,70 716,88 729,42(December 31)

Peso in 2006 by month
(January 1) 2,284.22 2,267.63 2,245.71 2,293.38 2,375.03
(June 27) $2.607,13

You can extrapolate the progression yourself. From May first until today the drop has been about 10 percent. If that continues then the peso vis á vie the dollar might be at maybe 2867/1 by August 27. Of course if I really knew I would be on my yacht or newly remodeled mansion in the old walled city of Cartagena. I believe the peso will hit a minimum of 2800 and had friends predict this rate early last year.

The simlistic reason? The dollar was undervalued against the peso and it was time for a correction.

"SIC FRIATUR CRUSTUM DULCE. OBESA CANTAVIT."

"Credidi pretio parvo emere et magno vendere tibi in animo fuisse!" .

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Ctg Bound says on Jun 27, 2006, 05:34:

The Peso The pesos is weak because most emerging market currencies got hit, when investors reduce risk, the initial sell-off can be indiscriminate. Fears over the last two months over rising inflation, slowing growth and current account deficits, sparked selling in emerging market currencies from the Colombian Peso, Brazilian Real to the Turkish lira, with little differentiation based on underlying current account positions.

In time, knee-jerk reactions usually give way to a more selective approach, I don't see the fundamentals of the Colombian economy as bad, in fact quite the opposite, so when the markets have finished their blood letting, the fundamentals will re-assert themsleves.

The biggest joke to me of it all is one of the main reason that the emerging markets sold off was over the sustainability of current account balances in some Countries like New Zealand, yet the US is not the far off New Zealands current account deficit, yet there was a lot of switching into US dollars, crazy.

That is just my 2 cents, but much of it you can find in the financial press.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Brians says on Jun 27, 2006, 05:58:

I agree with CTG Bound However these trends may last a bit longer than you think. When a market corrects and then selective buying occurs money first rotates into more visable names (countries). Therefore countries like Colombia who are somewhat off the radar screen may be avoided for awhile. The market really is in need of some good news in order to place a bottom. Short term I agree with Gator in the trand is weakness for the Peso. Anyway I hope for my sake at least.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Rubiazo says on Jun 27, 2006, 06:45:

Problem with that logic is The Real has held JUST FINE vs the USD, as has the Canadian$ and many other currencies. The American dollar hasn't trended upwards really at all for more than maybe a week since 2002, and those gains have always been more than reversed at the other side.

As far as Brazil goes, the Real didn't budge when the Bovespa fell almost 5% in one day. In Colombia's case the peso fell during the drop and fell some more during the bounce so two VERY different animals there.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Rubiazo says on Jun 27, 2006, 07:32:

Us dollar going UP? VS the Euro it has been pretty flat, it hung around 1.2 for a while hit a low of 1.3 and is now back to 1.25.

VS the Real and the Canadian$ and sterling and many other currencies it has done nothing but further erode. I guess internal issues have pushed the Euro down with the dollar, but as for it GAINING worldwide all things considered, no freakin way!

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Ctg Bound says on Jun 27, 2006, 10:21:

Countries Rubazio

The real was down 14% at one stage, presently it is down 8.3% since the beginning of May, down know why you brought Canada into it, Canada is not a emerging market or a developed market with a large current account deficit.

DonGringo

Europe DOES NOT have a current account deficit anything like the USA, in fact some Countries have a current account surplus. As to the markets being crazy, they normally are, hence the ups and downs, the markets will correct and I expect to see the dollar going down against most currencies.

The dollar had some strength overall last year, but the gains it made in 2005 were reversed in the first few months of 2006, there is only one way for the dollar and that is down, for the next few years at least.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Peter Miami says on Jun 27, 2006, 10:39:

In August 2002 the first time I went to Colombia, it was 2,950 Pesos to the Dollar. It had fallen since then but it has started to rise in the last couple of months.

Peter Miami

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Ctg Bound says on Jun 27, 2006, 14:16:

DonGringo Not sure what you are talking about, their current account deficits for the two countries you talked about are nothing compared with the US in fact I think Germanies is slightly positive.

Maybe you are talking about goverment deficits, where France and Germany yearly deficit are in the low 3% in relation to their GDP and approx 60% of oustanding debt to their GDP, which is approx the same as the US.

Although the above has a bearing on the currency markets in the long term, it will only have a bearing if goverment deficits in relation to their GDP get out of hand, which it is not at the moment and is a completly differant thing, to what I am talking about anyway.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Ctg Bound says on Jun 27, 2006, 14:24:

Don Gringo Its your money, but I have not recommened to anyone to put money into US dollars since 2002.

The dollar is going to fall out of bed sooner or later, the only thing I am unsure on is how big the fall will be.

Up to 2002 the Euro was trading as low as 0.86 to the dollar, if the currency markets just counted on the growth of Euro economy compared to the growth in the US economy, why is the Dollar now trading at about 1.25 to the Euro.

Italy is a basket case, it will probably be forced out of the Euro sooner or later, but we are talking about the US dollar, not Italy.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Ctg Bound says on Jun 28, 2006, 13:06:

DonGringo Who said that Frances current account deficit was getting better, not me, I said that their current account deficit was far better than the US current account deficit in proportion to their GDP, your link to a site I never heard of doesn't disprove this, in fact your link doesn't actually say a lot, I certainly won't pay attention to a link from a internet source unless it is a well recognised instituion, although the information in the link could be 100% correct, I only get my financial news from recognised sources.

Lost my shirt hardly, I moved my dollars to Euros in early 2002 for an exchange rate of approx 0.88 Euros to the dollar, maybe I make less interest, but I made 42% gain on the currency at the present rate, I expect a great deal more, when the dollars falls further. I am not a currency trader, I just follow the fundamentals as I see it.

In the long term the US is in a far better postion than Europe, but that is the long term, other factors including those that I have mentioned above will have far more influence on the US dollar over the coming years. Making a few percent a year on the higher interest rate in the US than other safe currency areas, will not mean a lot when a curreny drops 20% or more. As people are finding out in New Zealand and Iceland.

I will wait and watch and when the time is right, probably in a few years switch back into US dollars, but for now, I wouldn't touch dollars with a barge pole.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Ctg Bound says on Jun 28, 2006, 16:58:

Financial press Tends to show two sides of the coin, some of the reading I do, also shows dollar strength.

All I do, is read a lot and take the information in, I then decide what I think is going to happen, then act on it, I retired years ago now, nearly 100% of the money I have made is related to what I believed was going to happen to differant things from my financial reading.

I did learn a bit about reading graphs and although there is money to be made, because so many people and computer programmes follow the graphs, I stopped trading, now only take longer term bets, which I generally don't find the graphs usefull for.

We will find out in the next few years what will happen to the dollar.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

toneloc24 says on Jun 28, 2006, 17:10:

Selfishly I'm loving this It's at COP2640-$1USD now and climbing. It may hit 2700 over the weekend while I'm there. My vacation is getting cheaper and cheaper and cheaper.

"Don't tase me, bro!!!!"

0 funny, 0 helpful.

jh816 says on Jun 28, 2006, 18:21:

falling farther, faster Look at the volume and rate at which the COP is falling. Increasing volume and a faster day-to-day decrease is not a good sign for the peso. Meanwhile, the real has steadied and started correcting for the overselling. I think, with rising world interest rates, people are demanding a higher risk premium from the more risky(prounounced colombian peso) investments. Granted, much of the current weakness is profit-taking from the last couple of years emerging market strength and I think the Colombian economy is in a good position over the long run, but the peso will be weak for at least a few years. A slowdown in worldwide growth isn't going to help matters either.

This should give the exporters a few good years.

joe.

0 funny, 0 helpful.