PBH Economic Forecast Symposium

gringoloid says on Mar 2, 2008, 08:35:

This is what the lists looks like now:

1. gringoloid..expatriate..Rubito, jonas

2. waterdawg

3. bamapits, albatross, cdawg, wendell, nine inch nails, scotty, billyBigD, Mario

4. Raay, Pod, Roci, droble, sloopskipper, mantequila, aaron21. Robert Jorge

5. robi,ctg bound, CatGirl

6. poco, muchacho, cali373, goinsouth

Mario says on Mar 2, 2008, 08:37:

3

gringoloid says on Mar 2, 2008, 08:37:

odd.......that statistical dispersion of names would look like a 'bell graph'.

Try to keep all of your opinions on the 'bamapits' thread and this only for entrants.

Waterdawg says on Mar 2, 2008, 09:13:

Water here : You need to move me up to a # 2 and I wouldn't bet a lot of money on a 2010 rebound :
May be looking at 2012 and beyond.. Lets all hope I'm as wrong , as wrong can be !

gringoloid says on Mar 2, 2008, 09:25:

I hope i'm wrong too. these young people here have never gone through a housing collapse or owned a business during a severe recession.

and i hope rocinante is wrong about that 15-1600 peso forecast.

yeah, lets leave those dates out..........i only put them in to reduce the severity for some commenters here...................my scenario doesn't even begin until 2009.

gringoloid says on Mar 2, 2008, 09:29:

one important statistic that i'm adding here is that unemployment in colombia stands at 10.6% today.

Waterdawg says on Mar 2, 2008, 09:43:

We are all products of our environments as I have mentioned several times before .. My Grandparents, ( both sides of the family , one from England the other Ireland ) escaped Europe just before the turn of the century ( 1885-1890 ) Made their way in the New World ( the States ,lol ) The story's told of tough times .. My Parents lived through the depression ( The biggy ) and WW2 .. All that and my passion for history is planted in what little brain I have left !

Ctg Bound says on Mar 2, 2008, 09:56:

gringoloid,

Quite happy where you placed, BUT I have gone through 3 recessions in the UK though, plus one housing correction.

gringoloid says on Mar 2, 2008, 10:17:

ctg, i was referring to 'young people'.........you know people born in the seventies and afterwards who have never gone through anything that was rough while owning a business. in the usa, that is.

I'm assuming, and I could be wrong, ......that you are older than that.

Ctg Bound says on Mar 2, 2008, 10:24:

A lttle bit older, but I still think I am young.

CatGirl says on Mar 2, 2008, 15:40:

Loid: OK I'm game..."5"

Love and Time: the only two things that cannot be bought, but only spent

gringoloid says on Mar 2, 2008, 18:59:

OK..............you're on CG....................but this it too funny!.. I mean too funny!

I though it was going to take awhile for the scenario to play out. I never expected to knock out the 5 and 6s in a few hours.

Half way thorough this article below, posted by sloopskipper, it states that the colombian central banking board is 'waiting to see the effects of the global recession on colombia'.

it looks like the 5's and 6's have already lost..............ON THE SAME DAY THE CONTEST STARTED.

I could make a case for the 4's.........but I do have quite a bit of time to play with here.

http://poorbuthappy.com/colombia/post/colombia-may-keep-rate-at-95-to-...

gringoloid says on Mar 2, 2008, 19:01:

this is hilarious...............the people below have already lost!!!!!!!!!


5. robi, rubito, ctg bound, CatGirl

6. poco, muchacho, cali373, goinsouth

gringoloid says on Mar 2, 2008, 19:26:

ok, medoblado, you're in.

jonas says on Mar 2, 2008, 19:28:

climbing to 1 pleaseeee

What I have, I do not want to lose, but Where I am I do not want to stay, but those I love, I do not want to leave, but those I know I no longer want to see, but Where I die, I do not want to go;I want to stay where I have never been

gringoloid says on Mar 2, 2008, 19:35:

ok, jonas.................only because you were on top of things.

those no. 4 guys are staying there so i can have some fun.

there is really not that much difference between 2 and 3. i'm going to develop a metric to make a further separation.

when i started this however..................i knew it was going to be a #1. Anybody want to go double or nuthin?

what in the world are you 5's and 6's thinking?

(CG, beautiful babes like you don't have to think!)

CatGirl says on Mar 2, 2008, 21:12:

Loid: Ok ....I'll just sit here on the couch and look pretty OK? Is that better? jajajajaja

Love and Time: the only two things that cannot be bought, but only spent

gringoloid says on Mar 3, 2008, 05:16:

yes, that's fine CG.......i'll make the money....and you spend it! how's that?

Albatross says on Mar 3, 2008, 05:22:

At least a 4... maybe as bad as 2.

However if it's a worldwide recession then the Euro won't neccesarily rise WRT the Dollar, it could in fact, fall.

Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but I think both the Euro and oil are over-valued and will come down. The European economy simply isn't that strong and oil is not the liquid gold that the oil producers would have us believe.

“Democracy - a pathetic belief in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance." - H.L. Mencken

gringoloid says on Mar 3, 2008, 05:30:

while i was sitting here on saturday and reading these comments...........i bought 10G's worth of silver.

just by being involved in this thread and doing the opposite of most of the commenters, it is now monday morning and i made about $300 on paper. i thank you all very much.

i'm coming up with a new 'contrarian indicator', ......some comments from pbh.

I'm sitting here watching Warren Buffet on TV this morning.................and he's having a tough time convincing people that we're in a recession.

now I see why this 911 stuff is so hard to comprehend for so many people.

Albatross says on Mar 3, 2008, 05:33:

Funny, I was just reading this when you posted:

"From a common-sense standpoint right now, we're in a recession," - Warren Buffett (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080303/bs_nm/buffett_dc_3)

Some people won't call it a recession until it's "official", i.e. the GNP has declined for two sucessive quarters.
But I agree with Buffett, if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck... it's a duck.

“Democracy - a pathetic belief in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance." - H.L. Mencken

gringoloid says on Mar 3, 2008, 05:47:

albatross.............i was thinking of that same thing when Buffet said that. its like that very old joke..............its recession when your neighbor loses his job...but a depression when you lose your job.

i think they're going to clean the whole slate in this recession and the following depression.

but you can make exactly the same money going downmarkets as you can in upmarkets.

rocinante says on Mar 3, 2008, 06:11:

'waiting to see the effects of the global recession on colombia'.

The authors of this article wrongly predicted that Colombian Central Bank would not hike the rate the following week after talking to whoever they talked to. The rate was hiked.

I like the attributes in 3 categories. Oil will see $150 (#1) a barrel and the US recession will last until late 2010 (#2).

Regarding the peso - just wait until the rates move apart once more this year. The peso will get support during this troop mobilization thing but a yeld is a yield and money is money.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

Ctg Bound says on Mar 3, 2008, 14:09:

gringoloid,

So 5 & 6 are out on one line from a news article, Jesus no wonder you see conspiracy theorys everyehere.

RAAAY says on Mar 3, 2008, 14:13:

.

I too was surprised that Gringoloid would rely on a newspaper article to convince him of a certain " fact".............tut tut................Gringloid.........you must know that you cannot believe all you read.

.

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

CatGirl says on Mar 3, 2008, 14:20:

Maybe we should stock up on copper? hehehe

Love and Time: the only two things that cannot be bought, but only spent

tomtom33 says on Mar 3, 2008, 14:42:

Some believe what they want to believe.

Ctg Bound says on Mar 3, 2008, 14:47:

RAAAY, I was thinking the same, but didn't want to post it.

gringoloid says on Mar 3, 2008, 15:32:

we shall see.

i have a lot of info.........but you have to open your mind and develop some analytical reasoning skills.

you don't need the wall st journal, you don't need cnbc, you don't have to play around all day on the internet. just one website.....and the books published by these members will tell you everything you need to know about the future of the usa.

http://www.cfr.org/publication/14781/setser.html

http://www.cfr.org/publication/14534/

unfortunately, my free trial ran out on this one and it is extremely costly for this information about colombia. but it is very, very good info:

http://www.rgemonitor.com/367/Colombia,_Ecuador,_Peru_and_Bolivia

these figures are intense.........unfortunately, i can't get back in so i can't paste all the colombian figures.

gringoloid says on Mar 3, 2008, 15:58:

it's not a question of believing............i only talk cold, hard, facts.

how about questioning my facts.

RAAAY says on Mar 3, 2008, 16:03:

Lancer.....,,,,,medoblado /spartan /killkillthetroll /baltazaar /rumplestiltskin/onlythebestplease

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

rocinante says on Mar 3, 2008, 16:11:

Loid - you said the guys in 5 and 6 are done because of some bullshit article posted here. That article also said Central Bank wouldn't raise rates and days later they did. What's your point with that article?

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

gringoloid says on Mar 3, 2008, 16:18:

i didn't post the article.....sloopskipper did.......................i just pasted it.

there is only one sentence in there that i was referring to, .......................... it was that they are waiting for the numbers on the the effect of the recession in the usa before they take any other measures.

i just thought the article was quite poignant for this thread.

relajate..........my scenario doesn't kick in for a quite awhile. Thanksgiving 2008 is going to be a whole lot different than that of 2007.

gringoloid says on Mar 3, 2008, 16:20:

Raaay..............that was a good catch.........i used to think that there were 5-10-25 trolls working here...................there may be just one!

RAAAY says on Mar 3, 2008, 16:21:

Yep...........

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

gringoloid says on Mar 3, 2008, 16:23:

medoblado /spartan /killkillthetroll /baltazaar /rumplestiltskin/onlythebestplease..............

from a strictly therapeutic standpoint, .......................and take this in the best way that you can..................you should seek out some psychiatric help.

this is no attack man, this is a serious comment.

gringoloid says on Mar 3, 2008, 16:27:

Raay......take a look at the guy that started this economic thread.....bamapits.

rocinante says on Mar 3, 2008, 16:35:

Mr loid - at 6:11 I posted about 'waiting to see the effects of the global recession on colombia'. from that article.

You can't go by that as meaning anything, regardless of who posted the story. You're the one drawing conclusions.

No harm no foul.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

gringoloid says on Mar 3, 2008, 16:56:

Lancer: "But, I am always wanting to protect those that are bully'd on by others.............with no chance to defend themselves."


medo..........on a thread of yours that was deleted, you talked about this bully thing and how you protect people. if there is any bully around here.....it is you. that's why you've been deleted, how many times now?

gringoloid says on Mar 3, 2008, 17:05:

roci....quote: "you're the one drawing conclusions"

you're darn right i've been drawing conclusions............since early 2005, and acting on those conclusions, and profiting from those conclusions.

anybody want to see my trading receipts,.......they're certainly welcome. take a look at the money i made in the past days just off of this thread.

so just take it easy.......this is going to take a few more months until the govt even calls this a recession.

colombian gdp, inflation rate, unemployment rate will be posted here.

no harm......just relax.....and wait it out, the truth shall set you free.

in the meantime, i'll be trading on the forex where the euro will just keep on keepin on against the dollar.

gringoloid says on Mar 3, 2008, 18:13:

Medo..........what's with this ruling class thing? do you see how much heat i take on this board? somebodys always messing with me.

Ctg Bound says on Mar 4, 2008, 05:39:

gringoloid,

"just one website.....and the books published by these members will tell you everything you need to know about the future of the usa."

Very foolish to take information from on source alone, not very good analytical reasoning?

gringoloid says on Mar 4, 2008, 05:54:

if they're always correct........wouldn't that be good reasoning?

Man Tequila says on Mar 4, 2008, 16:05:

4.

Aunque no me creas/ si me lo propongo/ lograre olvidarte/ porque a fin de cuentas/ no soy tan cobarde./ Y termino todo una de estas tardes/ no sera dificil buscar algún sitio donde refugiarme/ donde nunca mas vuelvas a encontrarme. (Polo Montañez)

gringoloid says on Mar 4, 2008, 17:04:

ok, you're in, mant.................here is an agreement you never saw in the news and detrimental to canada...........it's not just a highway............canada's resources were made communal.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Security_and_Prosperity_Partnership_of_No...

Man Tequila says on Mar 4, 2008, 17:25:

According to an anonymous Internet report with a purported statement by the Council of Canadians.

Now, I'm not saying the article is wrong -- our government regrettably has a terrible habit of behind the scenes deals and a poor record of protecting our resources. But it was hardly a secret agreement. It has been described in the news here several times.

Aunque no me creas/ si me lo propongo/ lograre olvidarte/ porque a fin de cuentas/ no soy tan cobarde./ Y termino todo una de estas tardes/ no sera dificil buscar algún sitio donde refugiarme/ donde nunca mas vuelvas a encontrarme. (Polo Montañez)

gringoloid says on Mar 4, 2008, 17:36:

no, what i mean is that this was not seen in the controlled media in a big way. this is a treasonous takeover of democratic government. last i heard, the congresses of these three countries were supposed to be able to vote on something like the evaporation of their sovereignty.

i've know about this for 20 years so it can't be much of a secret.

Obama, Hillary, and McCain sure haven't said a word about it though.

ahhh, mant......all those spanish lessons.......hmmmm..........i think you 're going to be perfectly positioned for the takeover of canada by mexico. hmmmmm

Man Tequila says on Mar 4, 2008, 18:12:

One step ahead. "And I for one can be very useful rounding up my fellow Canadians and putting them to work in the maple syrup mines."

The big media has largely stopped investigating serious stories, but this is a small price to pay for knowing which political party Clooney likes and what Jennifer Lopez feeds her baby.

Aunque no me creas/ si me lo propongo/ lograre olvidarte/ porque a fin de cuentas/ no soy tan cobarde./ Y termino todo una de estas tardes/ no sera dificil buscar algún sitio donde refugiarme/ donde nunca mas vuelvas a encontrarme. (Polo Montañez)

gringoloid says on Mar 4, 2008, 18:19:

i think podborski needs a vacation..........he's been working too hard................maybe we can get him back to the great white north to work the maple syrup mines.............BUT only if he brings some to me in colombia..................all that i can get here is that aunt jemima stuff for about $6 a bottle.

speaking of free trade.....why don't we include colombia in this deal and leave you canadians alone?

podborski says on Mar 4, 2008, 18:30:

you got that right loid! I need a rest...

listen, I am hearing the canadian economy is slowing down. The high loonie effect is starting to bite I guess.

Yet people are still going crazy for real estate. Lending was not as loose in Canada as it was in the USA, but I still think we might see a significant drop in the housing market.

maybe maple syrup will be all we have left!

manINred says on Mar 4, 2008, 18:33:

"but I still think we might see a significant drop in the housing market. "

It peaked last year apparently. So yes, there will be a drop.

gringoloid says on Mar 4, 2008, 18:34:

yea, i have a colombian friend here from Toronto, he is returning next week to sell his house and move to bogota. he says that he expects to get a good price.

i told him to not delay.

the said part about this housing problem in the usa is that the lenders have the money.....they just won't lend unless you have sterling credit.

Aaron21 says on Mar 4, 2008, 18:36:

One of the first things I remember my grandfather saying to me when I was young - nothing in life turns out to be as bad or as good as it first seems....

4

podborski says on Mar 4, 2008, 18:44:

some scary news about citibank today...yet people don't seem to be all that worried...I don't get it

gringoloid says on Mar 4, 2008, 19:13:

i don't think people want to believe...........you certainly won''t find anything in the controlled media.

gringoloid says on Mar 4, 2008, 19:15:

alright aaron, you're in..........one of the first things I remember my grandfather saying to me was.........'don't ever foquen trust nobody, not even the govt'! :)

He lost his lifetime savings, which included the money for my fathers law school education in the Great Depression when the banks closed.

gringoloid says on Mar 4, 2008, 19:18:

pod.......we have 4 or 5 months yet before this is even called a recession. unemployment isn't too bad.................we have to give this some time.

RAAAY says on Mar 4, 2008, 19:19:

When do I pick up my prize...??

.

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

gringoloid says on Mar 4, 2008, 19:24:

hey raaay...........here is your prize, an AMERO.............won't be able to give you dollars in 2010.

gringoloid says on Mar 4, 2008, 19:28:

how about this one...

RAAAY says on Mar 4, 2008, 19:30:

Are the bottom ones made of chocolate...??

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

gringoloid says on Mar 4, 2008, 19:32:

if they were, chocolate ameros would be worth more than any dollars you may carrying! :)

Man Tequila says on Mar 4, 2008, 19:35:

We don't want gigantic women or eagles on our chocolate.

And we want the union to be called the America Social Syndicate, not the UNA.

Aunque no me creas/ si me lo propongo/ lograre olvidarte/ porque a fin de cuentas/ no soy tan cobarde./ Y termino todo una de estas tardes/ no sera dificil buscar algún sitio donde refugiarme/ donde nunca mas vuelvas a encontrarme. (Polo Montañez)

gringoloid says on Mar 5, 2008, 05:57:

This video is from April 2, 2007...............take a look at goldilocks here................now obviously i'm on the armageddon side........................count how many times goldilocks is wrong........you would have lost your ass if you listened to this asshole..........take a look at gold at 671 and oil at 66 a barrel.

at this point, i had already been into gold for 2 years. i mean even back then, i can't believe a guy with 55 institutional clients would make statements like this. what is his 'real' agenda.............he couldn't be that god dam dumb.

Ctg bound...this is why i don't need other opinions...........because they're wrong!

gringoloid says on Mar 5, 2008, 06:07:

For biblical types, look no further than Revelations, Book 66, 3:18

'I counsel thee to buy of me gold '

'After this I looked, and, behold, a door was opened in heaven:
and the first voice which I heard was as it were of a trumpet
talking with me; which said, Come up hither, and I will shew
thee things which must be hereafter.'

Ctg Bound says on Mar 5, 2008, 10:56:

gringoloid,

"Ctg bound...this is why i don't need other opinions...........because they're wrong!"

You shold be a very rich person then.

We shall see who is right and wrong in 6-12 months on this particular subject.

gringoloid says on Mar 5, 2008, 12:22:

richness is a state of mind.......