Ouch - Dollar at 1,756 Today - Bounce back in a few months ?

morphus says on May 3, 2008, 07:49:

The dollar has been consistently dropping against the COP for the past few years.

OneHappyBoy says on May 3, 2008, 08:31:

This being that G. W. Bushy, while pronouncing a strong dollar policy, really has a weak dollar policy to make US goods more disirable for export, in the face of the Chinese Economic Tsunami we are facing in the west. The Chinese has, informally, pegged its currency so it floats, "just below" the dollar.

Will the Dollar gain strength in the near future against the COP? The long and short of it is not intil the US economy rebounds a bit, and we can start to raise interest rates, (which I see that happening within the year, with the strong inflationary pressures food and petroleum are introducing into the economy). ( I also think the Chinese economy will start to cool, with their own set of issues; rising labor rates and creeping inflation due to poor economic management by its central government)

The double edged sword is the Colombian economy. If Colombia avails itself on the high barrell prices for oil,and kicks up exports, (even a little, it would provide the country with a touch more investment capital), it will bolster the COPs strength.However, with the rising COP, it will be harder to export other goods to the US,(one of its larger trade partners). Demand for discretionary cost objects, such as flowers and foo foo Starbucks coffee, (lets not forget medical tourism), would expect to drop.

Maybe a good idea would be to short the Dollar, (purchase in the US, not Colombia, due to the tax structure), for part of the year, or make a forward buy of COP in USD, say 6 months.

Once the US Federal Reserves see the economy rebounding, continued inflationary pressures prevail, and we have a Democrat in the White House, (Both Clinton and Obama would REALLY have to scew this up to lose this gift), interest rates will go up. The Dollar will start to rise in the currency markets and the COP will start to head back up, (I think by the first of the year.).

Over 2000? My crystal ball is a bit hazy on that one. That would be depend on the resilience of the Colombian economy faced with a change in economic policy in the US and how much confidence foriegn investors have in Colombia. If Colombia get a left leaning president when Uribe leaves, and Chavez can popularize FARC along the border and create social unrest, then it will go WAY up, due to lack of investment and stagnate the economy, (who wants to invest in a country with left leaning policies?). If Colombian gets a new leader that stays the course, I think it will be a little bump in the road and to COP will weather the storm against the Dollar.

Just some thoughts on your question this morning

Words are just words. nothing more or less, but eloquently expressed, like a symphony to Beethoven's ear, no army can defeat and no oppression can exist.

miamimike says on May 3, 2008, 22:34:

The Chinese has, informally, pegged its currency so it floats, "just below" the dollar.
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Not really, the Chinese Currency is really frozen. It hasn't moved but maybe 2% since they allegedly unfroze it. Their claiming to have unlocked their currency is a Joke. While the US Dollar is weak, our US Stock Market hit its High point Friday, not reaching this 13,000 level since early January 2008,,,Not bad if you are invested here in the USA,,,

Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we." GW Bush

Ctg Bound says on May 4, 2008, 04:45:

miamimike,

I have never heard the Chinese say that they have UN-Frozen their currency?

Their idea is for the Yuan to gradually gain strength against the dollar while more internal market reforms take place that allows the Yuan to become more free-floating, it has appreciated about 17% since they instated this policy 2.5 years ago.

dwmte7 says on May 4, 2008, 05:21:

much to my and my families' chagrin, i personally feel it's headed for the 1,200 level before years end. talk about ouch. you better believe it.

dwmte

miamimike says on May 4, 2008, 06:24:

CTg Bound--I would have to see a link showing the Yuan has appreciated that much before I would believe it. Thankfully that will be a big trade issue in the US Presidental campaign for the candidates because up to now it sure hasn't been addressed indepth by our current WH occupant. And China continues to build up a HUGE trade trade Balance with the USA. Tyhis Frozen(essentially)Chinese Currency will wreck havoc eventually on Colombia's Economy also,,,

dwmte--I rememebr on my first trip to Col in the mid 90s it was like around 800-900 to 1,,,ande we thought that was good deal,,,LOL

Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we." GW Bush

rocinante says on May 4, 2008, 07:13:

My tag line says it. Also I don't think the USD ever fetches north of 2000 again. Ever. The US would have to achieve pre globalization expansion potential and Colombia would have to see times like the Escobar days. So why was the USD north of 2000 only 6 months ago?

In a word "lagging".

Let's face it, countries like Brazi, Mexico, Chile are real respected players in today's economic arena - compared to where they were just 10 years ago. Colombia and other nations are not too far behind - especially with Colombia being RIGHT (as someone else mentioned) and playing ball with the big guys. Smart money is and has been coming into Colombia.

Even when the US starts raising rates and closing the yield differential between the two countries you still have to consider the upside of 1.) The US economy and 2.) the political confidence of the US (not a lot of room to get all that much better on both counts) and then compare that with Colombia's upside in those two categories. I see a good amount of room for positive growth on Colombia's part.

Interest rates are EXTREMELY important.

BUT

By the time the US completes a full 5 point increase in rates 3-8 years will have gone by from today and during that time political and economic upswing by Colombia will be even greater than what it is today. Even if the US economy remains flat or rebounds slowly the peso will gain or hold steady against this 3-8 period. Why not?

Wait until Latin America speaks English like India and China and see what kind of business moves here. Currently the potential exists for bilingual US citizens to coordinate off shore resources in Latin America. US coorporations are hungry for the cheap labor that is available abroad. Latin America is closer by plane and in the same time zone as the US. India and to some extent China (which is more manufacturing compared to service resource oriented India) should be worried about up and coming stable Latin America, their new direct competition. Think about the deep rooted Latin American base already in the US. I'm talking government and corp executives. When it comes time to expand or dish off new business where do you think they are more likely to vote? Latin America or India/China?

Look at the chart for India's Rupee vs USD over the past 10 years and think that India was never having to battle negative political stigma and the image of drug cartels over that time. And then ask yourself why Colombia (Bazil/Chile/Mexico) would be much different at this time?

Latin America is India 10 years ago.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

dwmte7 says on May 4, 2008, 07:43:

when i first started living there...80's....it was at 400. now, it's a message from chicken little, "the sky is falling." i see it much lower before years end. and that's gonna really hurt us as i'm on a fixed income retirement. i'll just have to break my oath and live off the family a little. what the hell.

dwmte

miamimike says on May 4, 2008, 09:18:

With Colombia's Expanded economy, I hope the next US President, whover it will be, renogotiates the Billions being sent to Colombia via Plan Colombia. It is obvious with increased money from a much improved Col Economy(thanks mostly to plan colombia money)going into Colombia's national Treasury, that the US should retain this Money here at home and use it for Badly needed US Domestic programs here in the USA such as Veteran's Healthcare(va medical system), providing healthcare for all americans, rebuilding our infrastructure, increased funding on alternative energy to wean us off the importation of Oil from terrorist nations who do not wish us well. Not to forget, these Billions we are sending to plan Colombia now is to the detriment of our own economical well being as the Monies for Plan Colombia are being financed by the Chinese and puts us farther into Debt. Absolutely Crazy. Fuzzy Math as Prez Bush says,,,LOL,,,There comes a time to cut the Monetary Umbelical Cord to Colombia and just as we are going to do in Iraq(us congress agreed this week the time has finally come for Iraq to start financing their own reconstruction with some of those increasingly huge oil reserves they are taking in from increased oil production and record oil prices on the spot market) its time for us to do the same in regards to Colombia. And the issue as to how Colombia wil resolve the issue in dealing with China(future) in regards to the Currency issue remains un-resolved, that is Colombia has a TRUE Floating World Currency whereas the Chinese Yuan is a psuedo floating currency that really has risen very little since they(chinese) said they would do in a couple of years . At least it(appreciating yaun) is not reflected in much of a decrease in our Trade Deficit with them. Nor have they(chinese) really opened the doors wide open to the sale of our products in their country. As in Colombia, they still impose Huge Import Taxes on our products,,,Fair Trade, I don't think so and hopefully the next Prez will deal with the issue,,,In favor of Our Country,,Let the next US President tell our Trading Partners we will offer you Parity, the same import tax on your products into the USA as you offer us and see what happens. Everyone wants the US Consumer market with preferential Import taxes(or no import tax at all) yet when we want to send our products abroad to their respective country, UP go the trade barriers and the leveling of huge 20-70% Import tariffs on US products.

Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we." GW Bush

dwmte7 says on May 4, 2008, 09:50:

even knowing that this sight has prying eyes and ears, i note that money from the u.s. which goes to colombia, unfortunately suffers the proverbial corruption tango before it reaches any helpful destination and the rich/leaders are pocket lined by the very funds designed to help the colombian peoples....which result in help to a few.

some years ago, there was scandal about, regarding the issue of monies paid outside of colombia for their petrol exports. the situation was that none of these monies paid to colombia abroad ever reachaed colombia, as they were paid to offshore banks and swiss banks....and apparently none of those monies ever got back to colombia. the only monies the colombians actually saw from their petrol wealth was that from domestic sales. and that, too, was subject to 'the old hand in the cookie jar' problem.

i say this infront of those prying eyes, as i love colombia as they do, and their wealth and rights are stolen and deprived by the elite; it's the colombians, as a whole, who suffer.

this is a problem not in the least unique to colombia...rather to politicians and governments everywhere in the world.. pity.

dwmte

miamimike says on May 4, 2008, 11:01:

DWMTE--We, the US, have had that problem with Money sent to Iraq, reports of large amounts of it being stolen, diverted to useless post war reconstruction projects at the expense of US Taxpayers due to poor oversight or in some cases, NO oversight. Thats why I was happy this week when I saw Congress was going to mandate that Iraq start using their Billions of Dollars Petro Reserve to start funding their own Construction projects. We should make Col do the same and cut out Plan Colombia Aid $$$.

Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we." GW Bush

RAAAY says on May 4, 2008, 11:10:

Plan Colombia monies are in the national interest of the US. It's not charity to Colombia, because the US. is feeling generous. Either way, the total amount of funds expended here is mere buttons in the US budget........chump change..........In total, it would'nt be enough to build a bridge across the Hudson river.

.

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

Ctg Bound says on May 4, 2008, 11:19:

miamimike,

http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?from=USD&to=CNY&amt=1&t=5y

I don't think it will create havoc in the Colombian, as the labour, land cost inflation are going up several times faster than Colombia, I am talking 25% inflation in the labour manufacturing costs last year. China has good productivity compared with Colombia, but that won't cover the inflationary costs there.

I buy goods in China in US Dollars, plus I visit China or my partners do and read a lot with things going on there, because of one of my businesses.

Many of the early exports made in China is already moving into the interior or other Countries, like footwear, others will follow.

As to the Chinese exports, over half the exports China does are not from Chinese firms, but developed Countries companies who have opened factories there.

tomtom33 says on May 4, 2008, 11:40:

Roci and CB, do you see any kind of bust in Colombia's future? The economy has been red hot for several years now.

Ctg Bound says on May 4, 2008, 12:29:

tomtom33,

In the future without a doubt, when I have no idea, I don't see anything presently.

I was down near your new place this morning, looking at a couple of shops, I didn't have my Cel to call you, maybe next time.

miamimike says on May 4, 2008, 12:50:

RAAAY says on Sunday May 4th, 2008 11:10:

Plan Colombia monies are in the national interest of the US. It's not charity to Colombia, because the US. is feeling generous. Either way, the total amount of funds expended here is mere buttons in the US budget........chump change..........In total, it would'nt be enough to build a bridge across the Hudson river.
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RAAY-Two Things--those Billions going to Plan Colombia would have nicely provided the $$$ for the Funding Shortfall( approx $1.6 Billion in 2006 for example) in the Veteran's Adminstration System to care for our Wounded Vets. Not "Chump Change" by a longshot for these Guys and the VA System.

Now on giving money to Colombia for National Interests, I agree but for a limited time but to continue it to a country that has a "Red Hot Economy" and Money in the Bank, how long do we continue this Largesse? 5 years, 10 years??? I don't believe the founders of Plan Colombia intended it to be like a WW2 Marshall Plan,,,,Seems Colombia is doing well enough to finance their own future. We have done enough for Col and presently we let 95% of their exports to the USA enter Duty Free. Why wasn't this courtesy extended to US Exports to Colombia?

On Companies who have moved their Operations offshore to China, one comes to mind, Stanley Tools and their were nailed for it. I am sure there are many more but this was a glaring example where they moved the Financial operations either to Bermuda forTax Purposes so they COMPLETELY Skirt USA Tax laws and avoid taxes on the Profits earned in the USA. As soon as stockholders and the American Public/Congress got a whiff of the Idea, they moved in and put an end to the idea(they held fed gov contracts at the time) So in the case of Stanley, you may think you are supporting an American Company when you buy a Stanley tool but check out the packaging and you'll see its made in China. In the case of the Chinese companies and their profits, this money remains on the Chinese Mainland and this is the Reason we have a Huge Record Trade Imbalance with China. It is simply one wayed trade benefitting China.Colombia may NOT notice at first the Impact with the Currency differential(they will sooner or later) but we sure know firsthand the devastating effects firsthand in the USA. Like the old saying," Pay me Now or pay me later, but pay me you will" and for the USA it was "PAY" in the form of massive job losses and a huge trade imbalancewith China now holding over 60% of our debt paper. Not an envaible position to be in--ask bewildered and frustrated Fed Chairman Ben Bernake,,,

On Stanley tools; http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9F03E1D61E3BF931A3575BC...

Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we." GW Bush

Ctg Bound says on May 4, 2008, 13:05:

miamimike,

Most of the money never leaves the US, it goes to buying arms, paying for training from US companies, etc.

Also the US is not doing this because it likes giving money away, they do it for political reasons.

Not that Colombia should complain, they should get as much as they can from the US and to a greatly lesser extent the Europeans.

miamimike says on May 4, 2008, 13:10:

Stanley Tool Tax Evasion scheme:

Stanley Works had also run into growing negative sentiment in Washington and elsewhere.

''I think we ought to look at people who are trying to avoid U.S. taxes as a problem,'' Mr. Bush said to reporters on Wednesday. ''I think American companies ought to pay taxes here, and be a part -- good citizens.''

The House approved a measure that would ban any company that establish an offshore headquarters to evade American taxes from holding contracts with the Department of Homeland Security, and the Senate passed a similar measure regarding contracts with the Pentagon. In California, the state treasurer has issued an order banning 19 companies that use the tax dodge from participating in state contracts that are under his control.

Stanley reported sales of $2.62 billion last year and had about $5 million in government contracts in 2001.

Dozens of corporations, like Tyco International and Ingersoll-Rand, have moved their headquarters to Bermuda or other tax havens in recent years or are doing so. By moving to Bermuda, their income from outside the United States becomes exempt from American taxes. Also, when the American company borrows from its Bermuda parent, the interest it pays creates a deduction that reduces American taxes, but there is no tax on the interest earned by the Bermuda parent.

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9F03E1D61E3BF931A3575BC....

Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we." GW Bush

miamimike says on May 4, 2008, 13:13:

CTG Bound says: "Most of the money never leaves the US, it goes to buying arms, paying for training from US companies, etc."
==================================================================

If what you say is true, how does that account for the massive and
growing daily Trade Imbalance/Defecit with China??



The United States and China share the most imbalanced bilateral trade relationship in the world. The United States imports more goods from China than it exports to a tune of $202 billion dollars each year. All told, China alone accounts for nearly 26% of the United States' $725.8 billion trade deficit.

Increasingly, this imbalance has been the subject of a major political backlash within the U.S.



What Causes the Trade Deficit?
The current trade imbalance is caused in large part by intrinsic features of China's labor market and consumer base. The vast majority of China's 1.3 billion people still live in rural areas. China has, by some estimates, a surplus rural labor force of 120 million people, many of whom migrate to industrial centers to look for factory work, and drive down wages.

As long as wages are low, the United States will continue to gobble up products made in China, while Chinese consumers will prefer to buy cheaper, homespun alternatives to American products.

********How the Currency Peg Helps Sustain the Trade Deficit
The currency peg exaggerates the natural imbalances created by low wages. An artificially strong dollars gives foreign businesses and consumers more purchasing power than they should "naturally" have (i.e., if the exchange rate were determined by the market) and makes Chinese goods even cheaper. An artificially weak Yuan makes foreign goods more expensive for Chinese consumers.

The single most important step the Chinese government could take to address this trade imbalance would be to unpeg its currency - currently just under 8 Chinese Yuan to the dollar - and allow it to float freely on the market.**************



http://worldnews.about.com/od/china/a/china_trade.htm

Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we." GW Bush

miamimike says on May 4, 2008, 13:23:

More on the Chinese-US trade Imbalance:

World News
See other World News Articles


Title: US: China Trade Deficit 'Unsustainable'
Source: Associated Press
URL Source: http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/fn/5483344.html
Published: Jan 28, 2008
Author: BRADLEY S. KLAPPER
Post Date: 2008-01-28 17:09:05 by TheTruth2004
Ping List: *Lets Give it all to China*
11 Comments


DAVOS, Switzerland — The Bush administration's trade chief said Thursday that the U.S. trade deficit with China was "unsustainable," adding that the United States would address areas where it felt Beijing was unfairly boosting exports or hindering the sale of American goods.

In an interview with The Associated Press, U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab said Washington would seek active dialogue where possible but, in cases where talks fail, litigation.

Schwab said 2008 would be a key year with the WTO set to deliver the first of what could become landmark decisions affecting billions of dollars in commerce between the two countries.

The decisions will affect a wide range of U.S. interests from copyright and trademark infringement to alleged Chinese restrictions on the sale of American car parts, movies and music.

The U.S. also could file new complaints against China this year, she said.

"We have a very large and, I would argue, unsustainable trade imbalance with China," Schwab said in Davos, where she was attending the World Economic Forum. "To the extent that the imbalance could be attributed to trade policy _ meaning illegal barriers, unfair subsidies, violations of intellectual property rights, counterfeiting, piracy _ then that's a real problem."

While a trade deficit can be viewed as a sign of economic strength _ it shows a country can afford to buy more foreign goods _ it can also strain an economy by forcing it to borrow more and more money.

For the U.S., financing the imbalance could become increasingly difficult if the dollar continues its decline and the American economy dips into recession as some suspect.

Democratic critics of the Bush administration's trade policies also charge the imbalance, which has set a record for five straight years, with contributing to millions of lost American manufacturing jobs.

Schwab said completing talks on a new global commerce pact was still the No. 1 priority for U.S. trade policy _ even though negotiations have struggled through six largely frustrating years of only halting progress. Free trade advocates say the proposed deal holds promise as a recipe for lifting millions of people worldwide out of poverty and adding billions of dollars to the global economy.

On China, Schwab said some of the great advancements for free trade have either been missed or ignored by a popular perception that often focuses on the limited number of areas where the two countries have disagreed.

"China changed hundreds of laws and regulations and really did a good job in bringing its system into compliance with its commitments," she said, drawing on examples going all the way back to Beijing's 2001 accession to the WTO.

The changes have allowed U.S. exports to China to grow by an average of 22 percent over the last five years, something Schwab suspected "few Americans are aware of." Despite the growth, the U.S. deficit with China will set another record in 2007 and American demand for Chinese goods is showing no signs of waning.

Schwab added that "there are still areas where we believe that China is not yet in full compliance with its WTO obligations."

She declined to name these, but the United States has repeatedly accused China in sessions at the WTO of manipulating prices on the raw materials used to produce steel, chemicals, airplanes and automobiles to ensure an advantage for Chinese manufacturers over their American competitors.

The U.S. charges Beijing, the world's largest producer of many industrial commodities, with driving up costs for companies outside China by limiting its export of key steel ingredients such coke, tin, zinc and rare earths; semiconductor materials such as antimony and silicon; tungsten for mining and construction; and fluorspar, magnesium carbonate and talc.

At the same time, the export restrictions ensure an oversupply of commodities on the Chinese market, keeping costs low for Chinese producers of ceramics, fiber optics and numerous other goods.

"When we reach trade agreements, we will enforce those trade agreements," Schwab said. "We have tried to be respectful. At the same time we have made sure we are active advocates of U.S. commercial interests."

Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we." GW Bush

Ctg Bound says on May 4, 2008, 13:26:

miamimike,

"If what you say is true, how does that account for the massive and
growing daily Trade Imbalance/Defecit with China??"

The US doesn't sell arms to China, I was talking about PlanColombia.

rocinante says on May 4, 2008, 16:10:

I've skimmed thie thread since my post and I apolgize in advance if I repeat something already stated. CTG is 100% correct. For every million going for Plan Colombia 65% goes right back to US contractors and never even leaves the shores of the US. This is documented all over the place. Search "RealClearPolitics.com" for the particular article that I am recalling.

Also a good deal of the money that does go to Plan Colombia goes to protect the BP, Occidental and Halibutrton pipleines from FARC attacks.

In essence the US tax payers are paying for $ to go to US contracts probably and to give free protection to some big oil companies - who can afford it on their own

Yes I believe a good deal probably does make it to erradicate drugs. But there are US defense and other contracts that get a lot of this money. Washington is paying back favors with a good chunk of this money.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

rocinante says on May 4, 2008, 16:18:

TomTom. I believe that there will be moments of support and some spikes along the way regarding the COP/USD in favor of the USD. But the Colombia economy specifically should contine to grow steadily. I see an upswing in the USD over the COP middle to late of 2009.

This is just my opinion and I am only basing it on things remaining steady in the world and basic globalization continuing. The playing field is becoming more level and the upside exists for the small/medium countries that actually have something and are able to sustain their own. Colombia really doesn't rely on the outside for much, save heavy machinery, automotive and technology. For an extreme example If the US goes down (which will never happen) Caribbean tourist islands whose GDP is 80% tourist dollars would be in toilet but Colombia will plod along just fine, bruised but no chaos - well, no more than the norm.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

miamimike says on May 4, 2008, 21:00:

Rociante says: Colombia really doesn't rely on the outside for much, save heavy machinery, automotive and technology.
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Not true by a long shot. Cruise any Large Colombian department store and tell me Today how many Items you see with a Tag saying "Hecha En Colombia" be it tools, Clothing, Shoes, Xmas decorations, Bicycle, Motorscooters, Medical Equipment, Cookware to name but a few. My guess is for every item you find with a "Made In Colombia" Label, there will be 9 other items saying Made In China(or some other country) that are not in that trilogy of Automotive, Heavy Machinery and technology,,,

Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we." GW Bush

Rubito says on May 4, 2008, 21:25:

Farewell good old USD. I hardly knew thee! :P

---Violence is the price of freedom.---

miamimike says on May 4, 2008, 23:41:

Rubito--I wouldn'twrite off the USD just yet! I see the Investment Guru Warren Buffet still hasn't ditched all his Dollar based investments just yet so there is still hope,,,:>)

Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we." GW Bush

lpdiver says on May 5, 2008, 00:09:

I sure do miss the good old three thousand peso days. I'll sure jump on some real estate if they ever return...

t

"cook some rice!"

goin_south says on May 5, 2008, 00:20:

I wouldn't bet against the peso:dollar thing going down to the 1600's at this point... in the next three months... sometime before the usa elections... after that... who knows what will/can happen??? a million dollar question.

why can't the freakin Chung King Chinese just LEAVE THE FREAKN DOLLY LLAMA and Tibet ... ALONE!

rocinante says on May 5, 2008, 08:27:

"my guess is for every item you find with a "Made In Colombia" Label, there will be 9 other items saying Made In China(or some other country) that are not in that trilogy of Automotive, Heavy Machinery and technology,,,"Miami -

We are in agreement - Colombia imports lots of stuff sin duda. But for every 9 things that is imported there is one of the same thing that is not, according to you. I'll accept those numbers and we agree that Colombia yes purchases goods imported but if those goods were not to be imported Colombia would still be able to purchase the goods made here in Colombia - that one of 9 you mention.

My misleading word used is RELY. Sorry. As explained in the two sentences following the word "rely" I use an example. The bottom line is Colombia is pretty self sufficient with the exception of the three categories I mention. If there was ever a major world crisis Colombia would eat, drink, have clothing and the basics, where people in Saudi Arabia would not.

My original post:

"Colombia really doesn't rely on the outside for much, save heavy machinery, automotive and technology. For an extreme example If the US goes down (which will never happen) Caribbean tourist islands whose GDP is 80% tourist dollars would be in toilet but Colombia will plod along just fine, bruised but no chaos - well, no more than the norm."

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

Ctg Bound says on May 5, 2008, 08:38:

miamimike,

Colombia imports are growing rapidly from China, but they are presently a small number compared with overall imports each month.

As to 9 in 10 items being made in China, not in my view from what I see.

Colombia is NOT the US, the labour costs in Colombia are still more expensive than China, but not by much and Chinese labour costs will pass Colombia in a while, taking into consideration that the goods have to travel half away around the world, plus import tax of say 15-20% on most things, Colombia can produce many things cheaper than China.

mranderson says on May 5, 2008, 08:59:

can colombia produce the same quality as china?

Ctg Bound says on May 5, 2008, 09:10:

mranderson,

I don't see why not and in businesses I am involved in they produce equal to better than China.

mranderson says on May 5, 2008, 09:18:

I don't see it, but ok.

Tinto (Moderator) says on May 5, 2008, 09:33:

Given all the weed whackers in use, they ought to be world class manufacturers of same. Anyone know if there are Colombian-produced models?