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NYT on violence in Venezuela

This is fascinating in that as Venezuela seems to be dealing with its abject poverty through subsidies and stuff like that, its crime levels seem to be going through the roof. What's particularly interesting is the statistic about the number of police executions.

Also very interesting that Venezuela's crime level is so much higher than Brazil and Colombia.

The New York Times
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December 2, 2006
Chávez Unscathed as Crime Soars in Venezuela
By SIMON ROMERO

CARACAS, Venezuela, Dec. 1 — Walk into an emergency room in many poor parts of this booming, oil-rich nation on a weekend night and you will be overwhelmed — victims of gunshot wounds and drunken clashes line the corridors. Homicides are up 67 percent since 1999, and violent crime is the top concern of Venezuela’s voters as they head to the polls on Sunday.

Yet the man in charge since then, President Hugo Chávez, rarely addresses the problem publicly and is sailing toward an easy election for a third time. Analysts say Mr. Chávez is able to ignore the issue by governing through a system of extensive handouts that eases the purchase of basic goods but does little to ensure public order.

“Chávez has shielded himself from the issue because people see his government as an important arbiter in their daily life,�? said Miguel Tinker-Salas, an expert on Venezuelan history at Pomona College in Claremont, Calif. “Chávez’s policies have made a difference among the poor, and that’s what is recognized.�? He pointed to subsidized groceries, health care and literacy, in particular.

Crime analysts say part of the problem is that the government and its allies have politicized police forces throughout the country, marginalizing officers viewed as disagreeing with Mr. Chávez’s “Bolivarian Revolution,�? which uses militaristic and nationalistic rhetoric in an attempt to reconfigure society with vague socialist ideals.

A similar process has taken place in government ministries, the national oil company and the armed forces after the coup that briefly removed Mr. Chávez from the presidency in 2002.

Analysts say police forces have also largely been urged to tread lightly in poor neighborhoods, turning a blind eye to small demonstrations and petty crime like burning tires. Critics say it is part of Mr. Chávez’s efforts to maintain support in poor neighborhoods.

Meanwhile, crime has exploded. According to human rights groups and a Unesco study, Venezuela has the highest rate of gun-related deaths of 57 countries surveyed — far surpassing Brazil, one of the most violent nations in Latin America.

“Venezuela has undeniably become one of the most violent countries in the world,�? said Julio Jacobo Waiselfisz, the researcher who conducted the Unesco study.

Though he trails badly in most polls, Mr. Chávez’s opponent, Manuel Rosales, 53, governor of Zulia State in western Venezuela, has been pounding the crime issue, questioning why murders have surged since Mr. Chávez entered office in 1999, to 9,962 in 2005 from 5,974 in 1999, according to figures from the Criminal Investigations Police.

Officials in the Justice Ministry did not respond to repeated requests for comment on the government’s crime policies. The National Assembly, controlled by supporters of Mr. Chávez, is considering legislation to diminish police corruption by centralizing more authority in a national police force.

Mr. Rosales, the candidate of a coalition of opposition parties, laid the blame squarely at the feet of the president, saying his confrontational style and tendency to turn the courts, military and the police into tools of his own power, are feeding the crime epidemic.

“Chávez nourishes the anarchic forces that are tearing Venezuela apart with a discourse advocating aggression on all fronts,�? the candidate has said. Polls show Mr. Rosales trailing Mr. Chávez, though his approval ratings have inched up since the start of the campaign several months ago.

Concern over crime has jumped this year after a series of brutal episodes pierced even the relatively sheltered existence of the upper middle class and the diplomatic and international business communities. Street protests broke out in April after three brothers with Canadian citizenship, John Faddoul, 17, Kevin Faddoul, 13, and Jason Faddoul, 12, were kidnapped and found executed.

Around the same time, burglars shot Walter Rehberger, a consul at the Austrian Embassy here, during a break-in. Diplomats were singled out again this month, when thieves broke into the trade office for the Chinese Embassy and stole $14,000.

The highway from the international airport in Maiquetía to Caracas has also proved particularly dangerous, with armed gangs rear-ending cars and robbing passengers of their belongings.

Carlos Colina, a consultant for Hewlett-Packard, was shot to death on the route in July, one of several incidents that led the United States Embassy in Caracas to issue a warning against traveling on the road after nightfall.

While much of the recent attention has focused on killings among the privileged, the vast majority of homicides in Venezuela occur in the country’s poorest communities — Mr. Chávez’s strongest base.

Killings tend to spike during weekends and around paydays in the middle and end of the month, when robberies are also common, according to criminologists. The large majority of incidents involve boys and men ages 15 to 25.

Mr. Waiselfisz, the Unesco researcher, found that gun-related deaths in Venezuela were surging, to 41.4 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2002, the last year for which figures are available, from 34.3 in 2000.

One of the most unsettling aspects of the spike in killings is that it has developed as Venezuela’s economy has boomed — thanks to high oil prices. Gross domestic product climbed 10.2 percent in the latest quarter, making Venezuela the fastest-growing economy in Latin America.

Previous economic booms helped Venezuela avoid the crippling violence and social conflict that plagued neighboring Andean countries like Colombia and Peru.

Though the accuracy of official statistics is sometimes questioned by the government’s opponents, the channeling of oil revenues seems to have alleviated poverty somewhat in recent years. The number of Venezuelans living in poverty has declined to 34 percent from 44 percent in 1998, the year before Mr. Chávez took office, according to government figures.

Some of that decline has clearly happened as Mr. Chávez has used oil revenues to finance a broad range of social welfare programs, like adult literacy programs, subsidized basic foodstuffs and medical care in poor areas provided by Cuban doctors.

“We’re witnessing a reduction in infant mortality rates only to see our boys killed when they turn 16,�? said Ana María Sanjuán, a sociologist at Central University in Caracas and an official with Provea, a nongovernmental organization that monitors human rights issues.

Citing figures from the Criminal Investigations Police, Ms. Sanjuán said the number of homicides in Venezuela climbed 23 percent from January to August of this year, to 7,616.

“The politicization and decrepitude of our policing structures may have more to do with our culture of violence than just poverty,�? Ms. Sanjuán said.

Pedro Ure, chief inspector for the municipal police in Sucre, a sprawling district of Caracas, led a visitor on a nighttime patrol of slum streets and said tolerant policing methods were part of an attempt to instill respect among his officers for human rights.

“This means a citizen can enjoy his rum on the street if he wishes, even though this could be an infraction,�? he said, though he acknowledged that many homicides occurred when suspects were drinking.

Meanwhile, however, a history of far graver abuses by the police has gone unchecked, some crime analysts note. Last year, the attorney general’s office said it was investigating 5,520 presumed executions by the police between 2000 and 2005, involving 6,127 victims. Of the police officials implicated, prosecutors have filed charges against 517, and fewer than 100 had been convicted, according to Human Rights Watch.

“We’re experiencing the worst crime wave in modern Venezuelan history,�? said Marcos Tarre Briceño, an independent crime analyst and director of the nongovernmental organization Secure Venezuela, “and the government barely acknowledges its inability to control its own police forces.�?

By Mr. Hollywood on Dec 1, 2006, 20:59 in Politics & the war.

arthur brode says on Dec 1, 2006, 22:13:

anyone who takes from the rich to give to the poor and has the balls to call Bush the Devil has my vote.

http://www.calirentals.net/

Sr Tertius says on Dec 2, 2006, 10:45:

As Don Rumsfeld would say "Freedom's untidy"

Seriously, to the extent that crime is a concern to the Venezuelans, they will vote Chavez out of office. But a country driven by public opinion is destined to a sinkhole. Just look at Colombia, or the US. Or Venezuela. A leader's popularity seems to be the worst enemy of any nation.

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

adrimm says on Dec 2, 2006, 10:59:

But at what cost? Ignoring childish behaviour (which both Bush and Chavez are great at), when does the cost of the level of violence become too high? imho a violent culture may last far longer than oil profits, and will limit options for a sustainable economy.

Chavez is making headlines jet-setting around the world and verbally antagonizing and provoking Bush (who thankfully has his hands too full to respond), he's a tad unsettling to some folks. Social programs are great and important, but by neglecting other aspects of society, and being polarized in the in international community, I feel that the overall balance for Venezuela is not tipping forward.

I think that Venezuela needs a more moderate government (or toned-down Chavez?).. I've heard some pretty positive stuff about Chile's government.

Mr. Hollywood says on Dec 3, 2006, 13:46:

Interesting that this turned into a discussion about Bush so quickly. Personally, I thought the UN comment about smelling sulpher was pretty damn funny, and give Hugo points for that, but what I found interesting in the NYT story was the stuff about the incredible level of corruption among the cops in Ven and the politicization of the force. So you don't get ahead in the police for being a good cop but for being a good party member, basically.

I was in Caracas not very long ago with a buddy who has lived there for years. He said, "At least if you get kidnapped here, you don't have to worry about calling the cops because they'll be the ones who did it."

Also quite amazing to hear about the blatant robberies on the road from the airport. For those who haven't driven it, we're talking about a 4 to 6 lane high-speed highway with lots of traffic, except for that part where the bridge is down.

Sr Tertius says on Dec 3, 2006, 16:04:

"Interesting that this turned into a discussion about Bush" I'm partially at fault for this. My apologies. It's just that I find so much wisdom in Rumsfeld's words.

Elections seem to be going well, with no significant problems as reported by international observers. Exit polls suggest a 18% victory for Chavez (as expected). If it is confirmed, it'll show where Venezuelan's priorities are.

So much for all that "dictator" bullshit...

P.S. I'm no big fan of Chavez. But I'm less of a fan of those who can't take their ideological goggles off and see that Chavez, for better or worse, is a popular leader. I don't particularly care about his tropico-populist style, but when he spoke some truths in the UN, I applauded. At last, someone speaks up. I started reading Uribe's speech. I couldn't finish. His servile whining is unbearable.

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

Mr. Hollywood says on Dec 3, 2006, 20:38:

Another similarity I didn't realize we were both members of the same Rumsfeld fan club. AKA, the "don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out, Donald," club.

The sad thing about Venezuela is that despite Hugo many shortcomings the "opposition" can't even come up with someone better. One thing you can say for Colombia is that it's got a lot of decent politicians to choose from.

Can anyone explain why they're so different?

esanch36 says on Dec 4, 2006, 10:38:

Arthur Brode. You mean: STEAL from the rich and give to the poor...MMM i wonder why crime is up??? Is it because nobody as any jobs??? Lets face it Chavez is creating a welfare nation. When people dont work they of course turn to crime. He is scaring companies and intellectuals away, all the people that a nation needs to keep going. I know most of you are anti-rich..but these are the people that make a country run..with out them you have no jobs for the poor....As for chavez no being a dictator..mmmm well see......he has been consalidating his power and now he has 6 more years...going to be interesting. I think most of you are well-off americans that have been indoctrinated with this socialist/communist garbage throughtout your life...Id like to see you live there and how much you would be admiring chavez then...
esanch36

The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries

Sr Tertius says on Dec 4, 2006, 20:14:

esanch36 I don't know of any self-declared "anti-rich." I'm not: I'm PRO-rich, but anti-"fantasyland trickle-down economics" that as a demonstrable failure in macroeconomics is only surpassed by the Soviet system. BTW, by PRO-rich I mean EVERYONE getting rich... including the poor.

"for chavez no being a dictator..mmmm well see..." Mmmm... no, he is not. He was elected by popular vote. Another thing is that he is not the encarnation of democratic spirit, but neither are many popularly elected presidents, particularly Uribe or Bush, and I wouldn't call them dictators either. Inept presidents, for sure, but not dictators.

...take off those ideological goggles...

"I think most of you are well-off americans that have been indoctrinated with this socialist/communist garbage throughtout your life"

Wait, what? (A) I am not American, (B) I'm CERTAINLY not well off, and (C) If you are safe of something in the US, is "socialist/communist" "indoctrination." Geez, have you seen the left in the US? It's the goddamn democrats, which are nothing more than centrist pussies (as my TRULY communist comrades would say).

"Id like to see you live there and how much you would be admiring chavez then..."

(A) To start with, few people in PBH like Chavez, and (B) Many people (me included) have lived many years and some are still leaving in countries somewhat similar to Venezuela... like Colombia... I think they (us) have the judgment to decide whether that would be a good thing for their country or not. I particularly detest Chavez--in general--but if forced to choose between him and Uribe, I'd bite the bullet.

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

law254 says on Dec 4, 2006, 20:15:

what can we learn from history Chavez is doing what hitler did. He needs a scapegoat, the ultimate enemy, a devil--and he is using bush and the USA. Hitler used the jews and chavez is using the USA.

Sr Tertius says on Dec 4, 2006, 20:27:

law254 No, no, no... Saddam, Ahmadinejad, and Bin Laden are all Hitlers; there's no room for more Hitlers. No one has taken Genghis Khan though, maybe Chavez could be Genghis Khan, no? How about Mussolini? Nobody likes him though, too chubby, but he appears in the History channel, so I'm sure the Chavez=Hitler people are familiar with Mussolini. How about Mao?

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

Mr. Hollywood says on Dec 4, 2006, 21:33:

Law254 I suggest you look up "Godwin's Law" soon. Here I'll make it easy for you:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin's_law

juancegomez says on Dec 5, 2006, 06:57:

Chavez's a popular leader alright But also a rather populist and personalist one that hasn't been immune to the taints of corruption and political machinery, not to mention multiple signs of powermongering and polarization.

Still, that's what the Venezuelan majorities keep electing and that's what they'll get, at least for now. I respect their decision.

Hopefully the better aspects of his administration outlast his darker legacies, even after the price of oil goes all the way down. Some of the better faces of his work in favor of the poor are at least worth keeping in mind.

By the way, Uribe's no stranger to "la corrupción y politiquería" either, as can be easily found out, but he seems to be in a less powerful position than the one that Chavez has assumed in Venezuela, both for better and for worse. At least some of his potential excesses are being held in check, voluntarily or involuntarily, if nothing else.

esanch36 says on Dec 5, 2006, 07:36:

Where is Chavez heading Lets se what Chavez has done so far
1. Chavez likes to arrest dissadents
2.Has befriended the Muslims
3.Has been socializing private businesses...is it write to take something away from anyother person.
4.Has centralized his power in the government.
5.Has been building up the Military....
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm I wonder what he is up too.
Mr. Tertuis Hilter had the support of his people and those were educated Germans...most of these people in Ven are poor with no education..of course when they see the Communist/Socialist ideal there going to take it does it mean it right????
You said "I'm PRO-rich, but anti-"fantasyland trickle-down economics"
I can tell your not "pro-rich" so stop saying that....this economics does work, ever hear of United States???? Most People like to believe that the average work is the foundation of any country..thats complete bullshit...its Entrepreneur, the intellectualls that are important to a society these are the people that are hard to replace..the average worker can always be replaced...does that mean we should have sweat shops..no of course not.
esanch36

The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries

Sr Tertius says on Dec 5, 2006, 08:45:

esanch36 "1. Chavez likes to arrest dissadents" I don't care if he "LIKES" to do it or not, but do you have any particular example of unjust arrest of a political dissident? I have plenty of examples of journalists and intellectuals sent to exile in Colombia because they were vocal about their opinion of Uribe: Fernando Garavito, Daniel Coronell, and Alfredo Molano are just three examples from the top of my head. Your generic statements have little argumentative weight.

"2.Has befriended the Muslims" I also have Muslim friends... I didn't know there was anything wrong with that.

"3.Has been socializing private businesses...is it write to take something away from anyother person." This may strike you as news, but in most places on this planet private property is not a God given right, but something that can be taken back by the State. I'm not going to get into the discussion about whether that is right or wrong, but "taking something away" from you is what the government does when you pay taxes. The nationalization of private companies has a long--and sometimes happy--history that is not exclusive of Venezuela. Can you mention a particular case where this has gone terribly wrong in Venezuela? Specific cases, please.

"4.Has centralized his power in the government." On that ONE thing I can agree. But that is a global trend, not just Chavez.

"5.Has been building up the Military...." Well... have you seen that country up north that invaded one country, and is talking about invading others... who can blame him? Pat Robertson sent a fatwa on Chavez and the Bush administration hasn't said anything. Not exactly a sign of solidarity. One thing, though: I hate to see military expenditure going up, in Venezuela, Colombia, or anywhere. It's usually a waste of money. But that is a general issue, not specific to Venezuela.

"Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm I wonder what he is up too." I know I know... HITLER!! Ha ha... "Hilter had the support of his people" I KNEW IT! Mr. H: Thanks for the reference to Godwin's Law. It's as inevitable as gravity.

"of course when they see the Communist/Socialist ideal there going to take it does it mean it right????" First: What makes YOU think that YOU know better than the average Venezuelan? Your grammar does not suggest so. Second: Democracy is not about right or wrong, but letting people choose how to run their own country, and they chose Chavez.

"this economics does work, ever hear of United States????" Have you ever heard of the Reagan recession? of Post-Thatcher Britain? of the Colombian "apertura"? of evidence-based (as opposed to ideology-based) economics?

I'll say it again: I am pro-rich, but most of all, pro-reality.

P.S.: Juance: Your opinion is pretty close to mine. I see Venezuela as an interesting experiment that could be conducted MUCH MUCH MUCH better. But this is reality, not a political lab. Unfortunately, I'm not too optimistic. Uribe, at least, is starting to pay for what he ate during his first period. Let's see what comes out of all of this.

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

esanch36 says on Dec 5, 2006, 10:28:

Attacking my grammer!!! that’s funny...it always comes down to grammar here on this site..I write to fast and dont really give a shit....Dont play stupid Tertius you know what I mean by making friends with the Muslims..as in the leaders of the Muslims world that want to destroy western civilization.
Nationalization never works...governments usually run it too the ground. As for your example just look at the Soviet Union!!!! Also have you seen what kind of trouble France is in right now!!!???? If you need examples Ill give you more. The only reason socialism will work in Venezuela is because it has Oil to pay into the system…but watch over there years the system will deteriorate and become corrupt. Why??? Because Government is horrible in business!
And shit, your nit picking small periods in our economic History. Of course every economy is going to have its ups and downs...and the 80's were one of the most booming periods, the economy is changing, of course there are going to be down-turns...so that argument doesn’t work, just face it the US has the greatest economy but you cant see that because your hate for the US !! I will agree with you that the US is slowly socializing itself. And we would never invade Venezuela for no reason if you listen to Pat Roberts you’re an Idiot. Also when was I defending Colombia?????? Mannn this site is Anti-US….What I find scary is that you think its write too take one persons property away from them…would you like it if come and stole you car….People have this delusion that because it’s the government its alright. Now ill say that if some of those companies were exploiting the land and people that’s an other issue and then I’m for regulation…But to steal, (that’s what socialization is) is just wrong. Also Chavez isn’t doin shit for that country, their still poor because no jobs are being created. If you measure success by the amount of welfare handouts he gives then………

The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries

juancegomez says on Dec 5, 2006, 11:03:

esanch36 The main thing on which I can agree with you without reservations is that a U.S. invasion of Venezuela's very unlikely, if not impossible, and that makes a good part of Venezuela's military spending mostly unnecessary. Other than that, Sr Tertius has addressed most of the other issues and comments I'd want to make.

Sr Tertius:

We do have similar thoughts on the subject. I'm also interested in what outcome comes out of the "experiment", though I don't believe that we'll end up applying something quite like it in Colombia either, when the time comes and circumstances allow it.

Btw, though it's true that many journalists have left Colombia, not just now but for years, some actually do come back...and isn't Molano already back too? I haven't been keeping specific tabs on that, but according to the following website, the guy was in exile between 2001-2002.

http://www.santillana.com.co/puntodelectura/detalleAutor.php?autorID=560

And an article from 2005, which talks about a few of the dangers that journalists have faced in Colombia, says the following:

"El periodista y columnista Alfredo Molano regresó al país después de un exilio de cinco años al que estuvo condenado por amenazas de las AUC."

http://www.libertad-prensa.org/Director.aspx?P=Articulo&A=20

So, unless the guy left the country again later, it seems like his exile began somewhere around 2000/2001 and ended sometime later, between 2002 and 2005.

Other than that, the other two examples do seem, in particular Garavito's more than Coronell's, more related to criticizing Uribe (even if he's not necessarily going to be personally involved in forcing their exiles, he still has at the very least a political and moral responsibility, independently of the validity/veracity of all/any of their criticisms).

Sr Tertius says on Dec 5, 2006, 11:03:

Stop. Think. Slowly. Breath. Then write. "it always comes down to grammar here on this site.." ALWAYS? This is the first time I mention ANYONE'S grammar, and as far as I have seen nobody has ever pointed out grammatical issues to anybody in PBH. I only point it out to bring down the arrogance of your statement (they are poor = they are idiots = they choose socialism) from up there in the sky.

"I write to fast and dont really give a shit..." It shows, and you apparently think that way too. My suggestion: Stop for a second, think slowly, consider your arguments, and then write. Even with poor grammar, no problem.

"you know what I mean by making friends with the Muslims" NO, in fact I don't know... end of Western civilization? What kind of fucked up movie are you watching? Excuse me but how many countries in the Middle East have invaded Europe or the Americas in the last, say, 500 years... On the other hand, England, France, and more recently the US have had their troops taking more than summer trips over there.

"Nationalization never works..." That's not the issue... stop, think, then write.

"your nit picking small periods in our economic History" if 10 years of recession in two industrial nations, and the brink of national failure in Colombia (see also all the LatAm countries that adopted the Washington Consensus) is "nit picking," then sure I am. Argentina's 2001... oh how picky!

"just face it the US has the greatest economy but you cant see that because your hate for the US !!" Let me propose TERTIUS' LAW: If an argument has marginally anything to do with the US, the probability of mentioning "America-haters" p(AH) is proportional to NxL, where N is the number of Americans discussing, and L is the length of the thread. Someone should do the math.

"And we would never invade Venezuela for no reason" No, no, no, Venezuela would be invaded for GOOD reasons, I'm sure.

"if you listen to Pat Roberts you’re an Idiot" I don't listen to him, but he threatened a person with murder. In the US and anywhere else that is a penal offense, except, I guess, in coutries that harbor terrorists.

"Also when was I defending Colombia??????" What? I don't know where you got confused (slow, slow), but I was only pointing out that in MY scale Uribe is a worse president than Chavez. Fortunately, Colombian public institutions are a bit stronger than in Venezuela, so, as juancegomez mentioned, the damage that Uribe can make is more contained. Also, it appears that you believe that I like Chavez. As I said three times already: No, not really. Read more slowly.

"People have this delusion that because it’s the government its alright" It's not a delusion. Check it out: It's the law. In the US it's called "eminent domain" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eminent_domain).

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

esanch36 says on Dec 5, 2006, 11:31:

Sr. Tertius Right back at you, Stop think breath..blah blah blah
Did I say that muslims could end western civilization...nooo, I said “want, want ,want,wanttttttttttttttttt�?...but they have repeatedly said death to all non believers.. They do want to destroy us….And yes they have attacked US…9/11, twin towers, spain bombings, London???????????????And if they get a nuclear weapon Tertass were have you been?? And Pleaseeeeee dont use the Arguement that a nation didnt attack the U.S.

In the US it's called "eminent domain" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eminent_domain).
You read that wrong read it again...I know that this happens in the US and it wrong as well...do you think you just because it happens in the US I think its right???? Look what happend to the railroad industry...but is the US doing it to the extent that Chavez is??? no

The fact is that you might not like Chavez but you love making excuses for him..

The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries

esanch36 says on Dec 5, 2006, 11:35:

Chavez not a dictator????? Granted this article is old but its still the facts

Dictatorship by the Numbers in Venezuela
by Robert W. Tracinski (February 26, 2003)

The leaders of the Venezuelan opposition have demanded immediate new elections to replace would-be dictator Hugo Chavez, arguing that the referendum scheduled for this August will give Chavez time to establish a dictatorship and render elections meaningless. These fears were dismissed by the international press as paranoia. Now they are being thoroughly vindicated.

How do you consolidate a dictatorship in the face of upcoming elections? There are five basic steps.

1. Muzzle the independent media.

2. Use economic controls to starve your opposition.

3. Remove any prominent contenders for your office.

4. Terrorize the rank and file of the opposition.

5. Intimidate any foreign countries that might intervene.

In recent weeks, Hugo Chavez has taken all five steps.

Step one: Chavez has initiated formal proceedings to revoke the licenses of independent, privately owned television and radio stations. Meanwhile, his political militias, the Bolivarian Circles, have staged violent attacks on independent media outlets. After all, elections don't mean much if all people watch is propaganda on state-run television.

Step two: Chavez has used a moratorium on currency conversion--needed to pay for imported goods--to punish his opponents. Vowing "no dollars for coup-mongers," he has used this power, for example, to prevent opposition newspapers from importing ink. After all, elections don't mean much if your opponents are too busy worrying where their next meal is coming from.

Step three: Venezuelan police acting on Chavez's orders have arrested Carlos Fernandez, the head of Venezuela's largest business federation and a leader of the recent anti-Chavez strike, charging him with rebellion and sabotage. Another strike leader, Carlos Ortega, head of Venezuela's largest labor union, has gone into hiding. In one move, Chavez has neutralized two potential rivals for the presidency. After all, elections don't mean much if all of the other candidates are in jail.

Step four: Last week, four protesters were kidnapped while returning from an anti-Chavez rally. They were blindfolded, tortured, and shot execution-style. Some of the victims were witnesses to a previous pro-Chavez political killing, and they had planned to testify against the shooter. Consider the message sent to the opposition when the mutilated bodies of their friends start showing up in the city streets. After all, elections don't mean much if your opponents are afraid to leave their houses and walk to the polls.

Step five: A few days ago, Chavez delivered a speech denouncing Spain, Colombia, and the US for interfering in Venezuela. This morning in Caracas, the diplomatic missions of Spain and Colombia were bombed. Credit was claimed by a splinter pro-Chavez group--but this was not a bunch of kids cooking up homemade bombs in their basement. The bombs were powerful plastic explosives, the kind of weapons that are difficult to obtain without government complicity.

Note that these extralegal armed groups are the ones attacking TV stations and foreign embassies. This is a lesson Chavez seems to have learned from his ally Yasser Arafat. The lesson is to use terror--but to keep it at arms length so you can deny direct involvement. Arafat's little dictatorship has a three-tiered structure: there is the official quasi-government, the Palestinian Authority; then the Tanzim, a militia loyal to Arafat and his Fatah faction; then there are groups like the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, a terrorist cell used to do the really dirty work. Chavez has the national guard, the main military group under his control; then he has his street militias, the Bolivarian Circles; and now he has the Coordinadora Simon Bolivar, which claimed credit for today's bombings.

There have been no attacks on US assets in Venezuela--yet. But while the Bush administration is completely absorbed in diplomatic wrangling over Iraq, Hugo Chavez is turning Venezuela into a junior member of the Axis of Evil.

This administration likes to deal with its crises one at a time, farming them out to mealy-mouthed State Department functionaries in the meantime. But crises tend to come in bunches, as with Iraq, North Korea, and Venezuela today. And they need to be addressed head-on before they get worse.

The administration's delay in taking strong action against Hugo Chavez is allowing a dictator to consolidate his control of an important oil-producing country in America's back yard, creating a problem that will be much bigger by the time the US decides to confront it. And more important, further delay in ousting Chavez will probably mean that a lot of brave Venezuelans are going to die needlessly.

esanch36

The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries

esanch36 says on Dec 5, 2006, 11:46:

By the way Tert(deleted) You spelled "countries" wrong....hahahhahaha woooo haaaaa

esanch36

(No personal attacks and no name-calling. D.)

The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries

Mr. Hollywood says on Dec 5, 2006, 14:20:

Blah, blah, blah Comparing Chavez's "threat" to anything besides other similar tin-horn despots is just silly.

The Bush admin does it because they're afraid that when Castro croaks they'll be left without a good bogeyman in the western hemisphere but nobody with much sense views Chavez as a threat to anything other than the well-being of his own country. And given the track record of other Venezuelan leaders, it's hard to even argue that he's done worse than others would have.

cali373 says on Dec 6, 2006, 12:16:

arthur brode. While I think we may share similar ideas about governing, Chavez actually has not taken from the rich. He has taken from Venezuela and given to the poor. The people of that country have democratically mandated him to do so, three times. In any case what does this have to do with Colombia?

Smile if you are a thinker!

Mr. Hollywood says on Dec 6, 2006, 12:43:

Taking from the poor to give to the poor, sometimes I have a client that owns a very profitable and good-sized industrial property in Ven. They would like to grow this property through investment in new equipment and infrastructure but there's a problem. The banking laws put in place disallow them from taking their profits OUT of Venezuela. So, in essense, they could take their money from outside VEN, invest in improving the productivity and size of their factory, create new jobs and tax base, yet at the end of of the year they'd be stuck with profits that they can't do anything but keep in Ven. And if they chose to sell the property they'd have to keep their gains in Ven as well. So instead of investing further in the country, they just let the status quo continue.

They lose a bit, sure, in terms of profits not made (but profits they couldn't take out anyway). But who really loses are the Venezuelans who otherwise would be gaining dozens if not hundreds of new, skilled and well-paid jobs.

Nice economic strategy at work, Hugo.