May 28, Election Day is Here

juancegomez says on May 28, 2006, 11:17:

18, I believe. At least that was the case when I turned 18 and received my ID (the cédula), don't know if there have been any changes since. Probably not.

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juancegomez says on May 28, 2006, 13:17:

We'll start seeing numbers sometime after 4PM Colombia time Until then, it's all going to stay pretty quiet.

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juancegomez says on May 28, 2006, 14:22:

Early and not yet representative numbers... Bulletin no. 2 - 1.43% of the ballots

ALVARO URIBE VELEZ PRIMERO COLOMBIA 28,351 64.70%
CARLOS GAVIRIA DIAZ POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO 10,064 22.97%
HORACIO SERPA URIBE PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO 3,172 7.24%
ANTANAS MOCKUS SIVICKAS MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDIGENA 1,195 2.73%

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juancegomez says on May 28, 2006, 14:26:

Bulletin no. 3 - 3.6%

ALVARO URIBE VELEZ PRIMERO COLOMBIA 83,832 62.01%
CARLOS GAVIRIA DIAZ POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO 31,032 22.95%
HORACIO SERPA URIBE PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO 14,375 10.63%
ANTANAS MOCKUS SIVICKAS MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDIGENA 2,239 1.66%

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juancegomez says on May 28, 2006, 14:44:

Bulletin no. 6 A couple of things did happen, but comparatively, it was a very peaceful election by the usual standards. No guerrilla blockades were declared nor any riots that I know of.

Bulletin no. 6 - 21.27%

ALVARO URIBE VELEZ PRIMERO COLOMBIA 1,144,292 61.02%
CARLOS GAVIRIA DIAZ POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO 425,103 22.67%
HORACIO SERPA URIBE PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO 230,285 12.28%
ANTANAS MOCKUS SIVICKAS MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDIGENA 22,644 1.21%

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juancegomez says on May 28, 2006, 14:54:

Bulletin no. 8 - 38.65% of the ballots

ALVARO URIBE VELEZ PRIMERO COLOMBIA 2,412,690 61.07%
CARLOS GAVIRIA DIAZ POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO 892,327 22.59%
HORACIO SERPA URIBE PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO 496,446 12.57%
ANTANAS MOCKUS SIVICKAS MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDIGENA 43,956 1.11%

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juancegomez says on May 28, 2006, 15:03:

Bulletin no 10. - 57.41% I voted for Gaviria, though I've been pretty prudent about his chances. Still, for the first time in history, the left is actually beating the Liberal Party and earning the second place in a presidential election, which isn't something to forget. Hopefully Gaviria keeps the left united and campaigning in a constructive fashion in the long term.

ALVARO URIBE VELEZ PRIMERO COLOMBIA 3,901,919 61.35%
CARLOS GAVIRIA DIAZ POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO 1,428,773 22.46%
HORACIO SERPA URIBE PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO 790,115 12.42%
ANTANAS MOCKUS SIVICKAS MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDIGENA 68,340 1.07%

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juancegomez says on May 28, 2006, 15:06:

I'm also curious about that too. How the 20's crowd voted per se But that data isn't available yet, that I know of at least.

And yeah, Uribe can't try for a third term without a further constitutional modification. That would actually be anti-climatic even among his own supporters, I believe.

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juancegomez says on May 28, 2006, 15:08:

Bulletin no 11 - 65.11% ALVARO URIBE VELEZ PRIMERO COLOMBIA 4,580,249 61.71%
CARLOS GAVIRIA DIAZ POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO 1,647,332 22.19%
HORACIO SERPA URIBE PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO 913,636 12.31%
ANTANAS MOCKUS SIVICKAS MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDIGENA 80,194 1.08%

Bulletin no. 12 - 69.93% of the ballots

ALVARO URIBE VELEZ PRIMERO COLOMBIA 4,976,634 61.72%
CARLOS GAVIRIA DIAZ POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO 1,799,160 22.31%
HORACIO SERPA URIBE PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO 981,302 12.17%
ANTANAS MOCKUS SIVICKAS MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA SOCIALINDIGENA 88,812 1.10%

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juancegomez says on May 28, 2006, 15:14:

I'll try The Liberal Party: A center (usually)/center-left (rarely) party that, historically, has been the strongest party in modern Colombian politics. It has broken down in recent times and is at its weakest point (third place in an election).

The Left - By that I mean the "Alternative Democratic Pole" (PDA), which is a very new left coalition that includes most of the traditional leftwingers (the communists, the maoists and so on) but also some center-left and center sectors. Carlos Gaviria has been probably the best candidate they've ever had, IMHO, which explains why he's channeling most of the anti-uribe dissent right now.

The polls closed at 4 PM.

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juancegomez says on May 28, 2006, 15:22:

Bulletin no. 14 - 77.44% ALVARO URIBE VELEZ PRIMERO COLOMBIA 5,610,593 61.93%
CARLOS GAVIRIA DIAZ POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO 2,008,411 22.17%
HORACIO SERPA URIBE PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO 1,095,376 12.09%

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juancegomez says on May 28, 2006, 15:26:

Bulletin no. 15 - 81.89% Uribe has officially beaten his 2002 vote count (5 million 800 thousand and so on).

ALVARO URIBE VELEZ PRIMERO COLOMBIA 5,986,010 62.00%
CARLOS GAVIRIA DIAZ POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO 2,141,180 22.18%
HORACIO SERPA URIBE PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO 1,157,902 11.99%
ANTANAS MOCKUS SIVICKAS MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDIGENA 107,779 1.12%

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Tinto (Moderator) says on May 28, 2006, 15:31:

When does the booze legally start flowing again?



;-)

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juancegomez says on May 28, 2006, 15:56:

Bulletin no. 18 - 92.0% ALVARO URIBE VELEZ PRIMERO COLOMBIA 6,829,100 62.17%
CARLOS GAVIRIA DIAZ POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO 2,426,363 22.09%
HORACIO SERPA URIBE PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO 1,303,492 11.87%
ANTANAS MOCKUS SIVICKAS MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDIGENA 129,670 1.18%

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platano says on May 28, 2006, 16:09:

I'm taking bets right now on the 2010 election... I say the constitution will once again be changed to allow Uribe to run for a third time... it was fairly easy to do this year... and that Uribe will be overwhelmingly elected in 2010. Any takers?plátano

plátano

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juancegomez says on May 28, 2006, 16:13:

I'll bet against that anytime There are too many ambitious Uribistas that are fighting for the questionable honor of being "delfines" and succeeding Uribe in 2010, and they won't let Uribe get a third term over their dead bodies.

They've publicly expressed their ambitions before, and Uribe has said that he doesn't have enough energy for a third term (which isn't an outright denial, but then again, Uribe usually doesn't like to self-criticize himself).

So I'm willing to bet on that.

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platano says on May 28, 2006, 16:20:

OK, jcg, If you win the bet, that is, if Uribe is not re-elected in 2010, I will sacrifice my firstborn and treat you to some patacón pisa'o

On a more serious note: I congratulate Uribe on his victory... and I will pray for FARC to give up their arms. I will pray because we have already seen that four years of Uribe was not able to force a surrender.plátano

plátano

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Tinto (Moderator) says on May 28, 2006, 16:23:

My prediction: If Colombia finds significant and easy to extract natural gas or crude oil deposits in the next two years, he will follow the Chavez-Morales model, convene a constitutional convention, stick his toadies in all branches of government and stay in office as long as he wishes. Or until energy prices decline.

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platano says on May 28, 2006, 16:23:

Gringodiego... The point is the constitution limited a president to ONE TERM.

Mr. Uribe wanted to go a second term so the constitution was changed.

Similarly it can be changed again for the third and fourth and fifth Uribe terms.plátano

plátano

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platano says on May 28, 2006, 16:25:

Exactly right, Tinto... It is a good business.plátano

plátano

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platano says on May 28, 2006, 16:30:

We don't call them kids... We call them our little guineos... and we have lots... we are fecund.plátano

plátano

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juancegomez says on May 28, 2006, 17:10:

platano "Similarly it can be changed again for the third and fourth and fifth Uribe terms."

In theory, or merely adding up votes in an out of context manner.

But if you add in the personal ambitions of the other Uribistas and other political realites that show Uribism as a very fragmented movement...simple arithmetics are not enough.

But don't let that bother you...I hope to collect on that bet sometime, you know.

Still...frankly, I can't agree with the guys that think that Uribe's simply the rightwing clone of Chavez. Uribe shares an authoritarian character trait, but that's pretty much it. Not all authoritarism is created equal, for starters.

Colombia is not Venezuela, and Tinto's prediction depends entirely too much on the extremely unlikely finding of vast new oil deposits.

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juancegomez says on May 28, 2006, 17:28:

Bulletin no. 26 - 99.0% Thanks.

Here's the last update I'm going to do (unless a thunderbolt strikes or something of that caliber):

ALVARO URIBE VELEZ PRIMERO COLOMBIA 7,333,238 62.23%
CARLOS GAVIRIA DIAZ POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO 2,595,904 22.03%
HORACIO SERPA URIBE PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO 1,392,770 11.82%
ANTANAS MOCKUS SIVICKAS MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDIGENA 145,993 1.24%

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platano says on May 28, 2006, 17:55:

jcg: ¡Listo! y si pierdes vas a tener un guayabo el tenáz... Así que te invito donde puedes decir adios a la resaca, ¡porque sus menus levantan hasta un muerto! El desayunadero de la 42 es un lugar de desenguayabe muy especial. Ubicado en la Avenida Caracas (Carrera 14) con Calle 42, ¡justo al frente de la funeraria! Ahí nos vemos en el 2010 bajo el mando de don Uribe, por tercera vez.plátano

plátano

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platano says on May 28, 2006, 18:04:

jcg, una pregunta... "...other political realites that show Uribism as a very fragmented movement...simple arithmetics are not enough."

Do the 2002 and 2006 election results reveal a "fragmented movement"? My impression is that Mr. Uribe is on a roll with continued support from the United States and support of many military and paramilitary forces.
plátano

plátano

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juancegomez says on May 28, 2006, 18:18:

Precisely.... The only thing, especially now and for obvious reasons, that really gives a semblance of unity to Uribism is the lead figure: Uribe himself.

Without Uribe, the real fragmentation of Uribism becomes all too evident, as (among other things) the difficulties within Uribe's own block of supporters have shown both during succesive legislative periods and the recent Congressional campaigns. Not to mention the failure of Uribe to build a single strong party, instead of an uneven coalition of multiparty and multiperson interests.

Again, far too many people (have publicly expressed that they) want to be the heirs to Uribe in 2010, and that obviously shows how fragmented Uribism really is.

And now that you mention paramilitarism, the fragmentation that such a phenomenon carries along within itself is even greater. There is no such thing as an united paramilitarism now, and arguably that has never been the case at all, since the AUC was usually merely a label adopted by all too often independent (and even occasionally warring) factions that only shared the common goal of anti-communism (not even sharing exactly the same methods at all levels...beyond murder, intimidation and violence of course).

Not to mention that not all paramilitaries are as Uribist as people might think on a very, very superficial level (para = Uribe = para). Uribe may be the one "closest to their philosophy" in a sense, but that doesn't mean that they have no differences and are mere ideological clones of each other. On the contrary, it can be shown that there may well be just as many differences between Uribe and the paras as, say, between those individuals that legally oppose Uribe and the FARC.

Then again, platano, if all you want to see is a shapeless mass of evil against a perfect mass of good...you probably won't notice such details. Just as the forces opposed to Uribism are quite complex, so is Uribism a complex movement too.

But what do I know...I voted for Gaviria too, yet I am living proof that "Gavirism" isn't homogenous either.

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platano says on May 28, 2006, 18:29:

No dije "all paramilitaries", dije "many paramilitary forces"... No estoy de acuerdo que Uribe no tenga perfil de dictador, o como dices el "lead figure: Uribe himself"... yo veo que un Chavez o un Fidel no tiene mucho que Uribe no tiene... por eso pienso que Uribe puede ser el lider por una década o más. El pueblo colombiano tiene el liderazgo que merece... pero, a diferencia de un Fidel, ¡lo están pidiendo con sus votos! como hicieron en Venezuela.

¿Nos veremos en El Desayunadero de la 42?plátano

plátano

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juancegomez says on May 28, 2006, 18:36:

Yes, you said so, but I wanted to highlight that anyways Ser una "lead figure" no es igual a ser dictador, ni es ser igual o similar a Fidel Castro.

Hay diferencias entre el concepto de dictador y el de autoritario.

Uno puede ser dictador sin ser autoritario (De ahí viene el concepto del "déspota ilustrado", en parte), y uno puede ser autoritario sin ser dictador (un caso muy común, sobre todo en la América Latina contemporánea, donde el autoritarismo no es raro, aunque sí lo es la dictadura).

Uribe bien podría ser "el lider por una década más" en abstracto, pero es que veo muchas dificultades y rivalidades concretas que lo hacen muy difícil en la realidad.

Con todo, creo que Uribe tiene más en común con Chávez que con Fidel Castro, y eso que sigue siendo todavía una comparación muy angosta en cualquier caso.

Cuando quieras vamos a vernos allá o donde sea para cobrar la apuesta, siempre y cuando sea físicamente posible hacer el viaje.

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juancegomez says on May 28, 2006, 19:54:

Gaviria didn't run Instead of the Gaviria, the equivalent leftwing candidate in 2002 was:

LUIS EDUARDO GARZON 680.245 6,155%

Garzón is the current mayor of Bogotá (elected 2003) though.

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platano says on May 28, 2006, 20:19:

Back when Uribe was mayor of Medellin and later Senator.... and rumored to have some connections to narcos... several left-wing candidates were assassinated: Jaime Pardo Leal, Carlos Pizarro Leongomez, Bernardo Jaramillo Ossa, Luis Carlos Galán Sarmiento...

I maintain there is a thread of connection from Uribe's CONVIVIR to AUC... right up to the current death threats that come from paramilitaries, ex-paramilitaries, guerrillas, and associates of Uribe like Carlos Nader Simmonds. It all stinks.

Because all the left-wing candidates were murdered, it is difficult for me to accept that Colombia is a democracy at all. Then the stupid FARC go and kidnap my candidate: Ingrid Betancourt. It is just all fucked up in so many ways. No face-to-face debates with Uribe. Kidnappings and assassinations. I have trouble thinking of it as a democracy even though it has all the trappings (well, except for the debates and dead candidates and intimidation).

But, apparently the Colombian people are happy. So, as I said earlier... they have the government they wanted and the government they deserve.

plátano

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utopiacowboy says on May 28, 2006, 21:14:

It's fascinating to me how pe It's fascinating to me how certain persons complain when the people don't do what they're "supposed" to. Let's face reality for ONCE on PBSH. Uribe is clearly the most popular leader in Colombian history. If you are looking for comparisons, GringoD, think FDR in 1936 with 60.8% of the vote. In many southern counties FDR received every single vote cast.

Disclaimer: any comment I make is inane and is not to be taken seriously, and is so patently ridiculous that no one should take it seriously, even as an insult.

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juancegomez says on May 28, 2006, 21:31:

Gringodiego:
"If Garzon received 680,245 votes, and Gaviria almost 2.6 million... then that is about a '4 times' increase."

Yep.

"I'm sure it's only cutting the surface here, but any way you slice and dice it, still have to again, lean towards Platano's way of thinking."

Okay.

"And, if somehow UA can create the stimuli to bring about some balance between socialism and republicanism, so as to Raise the Tide for All the Boats, then you got to believe that he will garner even more votes in the next election."

Supposing that there will be a next election for Uribe. Something which I don't agree with, at least not right now.

platano:

"Back when Uribe was mayor of Medellin and later Senator....and rumored to have some connections to narcos... several left-wing candidates were assassinated: Jaime Pardo Leal, Carlos Pizarro Leongomez, Bernardo Jaramillo Ossa, Luis Carlos Galán Sarmiento..."

It is certainly tragic.

But context matters even in tragedies. Not all of them were killed exactly at the same time and not for exactly the same reasons.

Not to mention that grouping Galán along with the rest of them is rather arbitrary and unfair to all of them, IMHO (Galán was far closer to, say, his own debate chief César Gaviria than to any of the others above).

And I can't immediately see what that has to do with Uribe in 2006.

"I maintain there is a thread of connection from Uribe's CONVIVIR to AUC... right up to the current death threats that come from paramilitaries, ex-paramilitaries, guerrillas, and associates of Uribe like Carlos Nader Simmonds. It all stinks."

Considering that the context is different, the practical circumstances are different, and that Uribe, as far as is known, had absolutely nothing to do with any of the killings you've mentioned...the "thread" is rather close to breaking, when under the stress of close scrutiny.

On a very different level, such a logic may even stink almost as much as the killings themselves.

"Because all the left-wing candidates were murdered, it is difficult for me to accept that Colombia is a democracy at all."

Your choice. Based on a certain set of beliefs and facts and a certain interpretation of the above.

Other sets of beliefs, other facts and other interpretations won't lead to the same conclusions.

I'd be more specific, but I'm very tired after a long day and I don't think anyone will care that much either way.

"It is just all fucked up in so many ways."

I respect your opinion but don't fully share it. Lots of things are fucked up, but some things have improved and are at least somewhat less fucked up.

"No face-to-face debates with Uribe."

A very unfortunate thing that I also hated, but it was also a completely legal tactic that even other candidates have occasionally employed before.

"Kidnappings and assassinations."

Increasingly decreasing instead of increasing as far as politicians are concerned.

Especially when one notices that all of the cases you've cited come from perhaps the most violent period for political candidates and public officials of all colors in modern Colombian history: the 1980's (my current candidate for the "lost decade of the century").

Tons of public officials, clearly not only leftwingers but also hundreds of policemen and many others, also died then...but I don't see you making lists including them..

"I have trouble thinking of it as a democracy even though it has all the trappings (well, except for the debates and dead candidates and intimidation)."

Well, if you mix and match things that way, and only those things...it's not surprising that you'll reach that conclusion.

"But, apparently the Colombian people are happy."

At least a voting plurality of them, it seems.

"So, as I said earlier... they have the government they wanted and the government they deserve."

Well, your opinion is still very valid, but I don't think I'd have the right to judge who deserves what in that context and on that level.

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juancegomez says on May 28, 2006, 22:12:

Well, I don't claim to know everything about Colombia either... Though I am certainly rather forceful at defending my opinions, I remain open to their being wrong or simply incomplete.

And hey, I am an Anti-Uribist too. Even technically, since I've just voted against him to begin with.

It's just that I'm one closer to the unpredictable center than most of them tend to be (basically because I am a relative rightwinger on security, but a relative leftwinger on socio-economic, socio-political and drug war policy...so that kind of evens things out from time to time).

"It can be hard to repeat the same amount of perceived progress in another four years. So, which way will it go?"

It could go either way depending on too many factors (the national and global economy, what happens with the FARC, ELN and AUC...) and my crystal ball is a bit broken right now.

"So, now what about the prospects of less than normal security, over the next 2 months or so, leading up to Inaugaration? That is in August? the date?"

August 7th. And the prospect depends entirely on what FARC decides to do.

They reduced most of their violence during this latest election, but may wish to pump up the gas again now that Uribe's going to stay for a while.

"Of course, in Bogota? Why the insurgents want to mess with Inaugaration? Damn. I don't understand. It's over. It's done. Go Home. Fini!"

It's kind of a way to say "we are still around and still powerful enough to do this".

Then again, they might go for some other unexpected stuff, so who knows...history has many surprises in store for us, I'm sure.

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platano says on May 28, 2006, 23:10:

jcg, Not all of them were killed exactly at the same time and not for exactly the same reasons.

They were all left of center and they all took a position in some way critical of corruption and narcoterrorism. "Not exactly the same reason..." no, and how does that matter. Were any right of center presidential candidates murdered?

plátano

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platano says on May 28, 2006, 23:24:

UTC, UTC: Congratulations! Your man won.

I am complaining about the systematic extermination of thousands of members of a political party because one of my core values is that people should not kill other people. I also believe that systematic extermination of the left invalidates calling Colombia a democracy.

I am also complaining about the FARC kidnapping my candidate because one one my core values is that people should not be kidnapped. Do you not agree with my core values that say people should not murder and kidnap? Do you not believe people have a right to complain when such behavior occurs on the right or on the left?

I am saying the Colombian people are happy with Uribe. And I am saying because of the way they voted, the choices they have made, they deserve the government they have.

If the right was systematically eliminated in Venezuela in the 80's and 90's, then Chavez got elected, I imagine "some people" would be saying he is a dictator who was not "democratically" elected (even though he got a majority of the votes of the left-wing people who were still alive). Democracy comes from the Greek and means "rule of the people" and if you kill the opposition then by definition...

plátano

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platano says on May 28, 2006, 23:28:

Tinto, It must be a sad day in Bananaville...

It isn't easy being Green.

Message to FARC: Free Ingrid and all other hostages you have!

plátano

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juancegomez says on May 29, 2006, 09:12:

platano:

"They were all left of center and they all took a position in some way critical of corruption and narcoterrorism."

Part of the difference lies in the "some way" and also on the degree of "left of centerness".

Galán's positions and say, Pardo Leal's, were rather at odds. Galán was killed due to his explicit support for extradition (something that the left has traditionally rejected in Colombia, including several of the candidates you mentioned), while Pardo Leal was killed because of the anti-communist perception of the UP being a FARC front. Not because of being "critical of corruption and narcoterrorism".

"Were any right of center presidential candidates murdered?"

No, but a few (depending on who is "right of center" for you) did receive threats, were kidnapped, wounded or suffered in other ways, directly or indirectly. Then again, I could also point out that other left of center candidates weren't killed either.

I'm not UTC, but...

"I am complaining about the systematic extermination of thousands of members of a political party because one of my core values is that people should not kill other people."

So you've said.

"I also believe that systematic extermination of the left invalidates calling Colombia a democracy."

Considering that the current left has not been systematically exterminated again after what happened to the UP (and the UP was never the entire left to begin with), and in fact, truth be told, has been able to win more votes than the UP ever estimated they'd win at the time...that should give you something to think about.

"I am also complaining about the FARC kidnapping my candidate because one one my core values is that people should not be kidnapped."

Yes.

"Do you not agree with my core values that say people should not murder and kidnap?"

Most people would.

"Do you not believe people have a right to complain when such behavior occurs on the right or on the left?"

Anyone and everyone has a right to complain...and everybody else has a right to complain about that complaining if so they choose.

"I am saying the Colombian people are happy with Uribe."

A plurality is, but I wouldn't imply that such a statement applies to everybody.

"And I am saying because of the way they voted, the choices they have made, they deserve the government they have."

And I said that I don't think I'd be able to make such judgement. Especially because only the opinion of a representative plurality is known, not that of a majority.

"If the right was systematically eliminated in Venezuela in the 80's and 90's, then Chavez got elected, I imagine "some people" would be saying he is a dictator who was not "democratically" elected (even though he got a majority of the votes of the left-wing people who were still alive)."

It would depend. Deducing the existence of dictatorship as the only alternative when democracy is absent and/or flawed isn't the only option available.

For example, while Carlos Gaviria has said that Colombia isn't a democracy in the profound sense of the word that he uses, but he has never said that it's a dictatorship and he has openly and repeatedly recognized that democratic spaces exist here.

"Democracy comes from the Greek and means "rule of the people" and if you kill the opposition then by definition..."

Considering that even in the time of the Greeks it wasn't really all of "the people" that voted or merely had the right to vote in the first place, and that ostracism often affected those in opposition at a given point in time...the practical application of the definition says something else.

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utopiacowboy says on May 29, 2006, 09:28:

He's not my man although I do have a lot of respect for him. My wife didn't bother to vote. One of my sisters-in-law and her husband voted for Gaviria which really pissed her mother off. I'm in favor of the legal division of the country into the de facto narco-kingdoms. Of course I'm also in favor of the division of the USA into portions as well.

Disclaimer: any comment I make is inane and is not to be taken seriously, and is so patently ridiculous that no one should take it seriously, even as an insult.

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juancegomez says on May 29, 2006, 09:46:

Those would be some weird looking portions though Because the "narco-kingdoms", as you call them, aren't all geographically continuous...that would be harder than carving up Yugoslavia.

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platano says on May 29, 2006, 10:41:

Interesting article, Tinto... The ideal would be communes no larger than 50,000 people. Don't like the way your commune is being run? Leave and find one you like. More freedom than allowed by nation-states with their borders that need to be defended.

"wasn't meant to be"... I actually agree with you here, too! I'm on the predetermined side of the free will debate. I couldn't help but type these words... it was meant to be! I'm the way I am (Green!) because that's the way the Almighty wanted it.

Are you by any chance Presbyterian? Cool!

plátano

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juancegomez says on May 29, 2006, 11:01:

Tinto I personally could even agree with you on an abstract level, as I think that Colombia is too geographically large to begin with (I blame the Spanish for not employing better administrative divisions).

However, in practice it doesn't work that way. Why? Because unlike the cases of Bolivar and (in a very different way) Chavez or even Tito, most Colombians want to continue being part of one nation and identify themselves as equal on that level...even the AUC, the FARC, the ELN and the narcos.

If all the FARC wanted was seccession and if the reality on the ground was simple enough to accomodate such a theoretical desire...then, by almost all means, I'd have no problems with that.

If they all wanted to split the country then things would be infinitely easier.

The communes platano is speaking about would also be interesting, but it would be even harder to bring them into existence, as the very utopian nature of the concept indicates.

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platano says on May 29, 2006, 11:50:

Gringodiego... about guerrilla electoral non-intervention... You asked at one point if this is the first time the guerrillas had not interfered. From a report on RCN.com apparently it is historic... and I think not a little scary. Usually a couple of renegade FARC units get out of hand and disobey orders... resulting in burned votes.

This election FARC promised no interference and they delivered. This suggests a level of intact command and control that is frightening.

Or, alternatively, that FARC is planning to surrender tomorrow... now that Mr. Uribe has been re-elected and they can see the handwriting on the wall. They could be shaking like jello in their rubber boots.

Or is there another plausible scenario?

plátano

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juancegomez says on May 29, 2006, 15:30:

A couple of things "This election FARC promised no interference and they delivered."

Considering that some isolated incidents of attempted or real violence involving illegally armed men did happen, whose perpetrators were not immediately identified but most likely included FARC or ELN guerrillas, I wouldn't swear on that so easily.

So a 100% compliance with that alleged order, given the existence of those incidents, is definitely not true. What is true is that most didn't interfere, but not every single one of them.

"This suggests a level of intact command and control that is frightening."

Not necessarily, given that some minor incidents did happen after all.

"Or, alternatively, that FARC is planning to surrender tomorrow... now that Mr. Uribe has been re-elected and they can see the handwriting on the wall. They could be shaking like jello in their rubber boots."

Even I find that ridiculous.

"Or is there another plausible scenario?"

Certainly, and more than one I'd say.

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goosekirk says on May 29, 2006, 22:27:

El Desayunadero de la 42 This would be a lot more interesting in person. If there's any meeting scheduled to hash out some politics, I'd sure like to be a fly on the wall - somebody drop me a line at goosekirk at gmail.

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