Looking to Buy apartment in Envigado/medellin area

tejasmarcos says on Aug 17, 2006, 18:05:

what makes you think prices will get higher?

* i've been renting here 5 months. just curious?

trying to walk a straight line on sour mash and cheap wine...

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jh816 says on Aug 18, 2006, 09:19:

inmobiliaria lleras www.inmobiliarialleras.com has a pretty good site with pictures. Bienes.com is nice also, but few pictures.

What's the consensus about the housing market? From what I've heard, it sounds like its a seller's market right now and prices seem to be a little inflated. What do you think the reasons are for the current overbought/oversold condition? If Colombia can ever get its mortgage rates down to a manageable level, the housing market would boom with all the new ownership but this is probably quite a few years down the road. I don't think Medellin will ever be a retirement haven like Costa Rica (the coastal cities would have to become completely overpopulated first), but eventually when they get the stability question under control FDI will pour in and the economy will easily rival Brazil's. So, I guess, I'm bearish short-term and bullish long-term.

Local variables aside, with the recent strength in the COP vs. USD, I would hold off to see if the exchange rate goes back up sometime in the next few years. I think you are much more likely to see the peso 5-10% higher sometime in the next few years than you are to see it lower than its current 2360/1 USD.

joe.

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Brians says on Aug 18, 2006, 09:48:

Agreed jh816 but... what if you are wrong. The risk is minimal now. I just bought a place for about $170,000 USD in Medellin. If the market corrects 20% (doubtful) my exposure is $16,000. However if the market continues to appreciate and some of those long term trends you mention and I agree with take hold then you might be paying double in 5 years.

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tejasmarcos says on Aug 18, 2006, 10:00:

my sources here tell me that alot of the buying right now is coming from locals paying cash. one of the reasons i was explained is the dismantling of the paramilitaries. alot of the available units are in essence becoming bank accounts or places to stash cash. the increased demand leads to inevitable higher prices. not sure about the sustainability though. it will be interesting to see what happens over the next two years.

trying to walk a straight line on sour mash and cheap wine...

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jh816 says on Aug 18, 2006, 10:10:

yes, 20% is doubtful I'm thinking more like 5-10%, but not really a correction more of a flight to quality. If global growth slows in the next 6 months to a year, as I think it will, the peso and Colombian economy will suffer from less FDI. This combined with the pressure being put on the govt. for a more favorable rate for exporters should be enough to push the rate to around 2500/1USD. And though the dollar has some serious obstacles to overcome in the long run, in the short-term I'm thinking it should correct some. Currency rate-wise, I just don't see the peso appreciating more than another 3% over the next year and think it is more likely to go the other way.

You're probably right though, you certainly stand to lose more by a shift in local variables, so if the housing market is running fairly neutral then go for it.

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tejasmarcos says on Aug 18, 2006, 11:22:

where did you buy BrianS? i would think at that price, you are somewhere in the Poblado (Tesoro Mall) area. you paying aroung 80-90 a sq. ft.?

trying to walk a straight line on sour mash and cheap wine...

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Brians says on Aug 18, 2006, 12:46:

Paid a little more I bought in San Lucas Poblado very close to Tesoro to be closer to her mother. Really loved the area and it is less conjested that down the bottom of the hill near Oviedo. I negoiated the price somewhat but on New construction they really don't move too much. My thought is we are never selling and as long as we hold it then it is worth anything we pay. The most important thing is to have the place we want paid for and not have to worry about it anymore as I said earlier even if it halfs what difference does it make if we are planning on keeping it.

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tejasmarcos says on Aug 18, 2006, 14:28:

Care to share the size? meters or sq. ft. is fine. i'm thinking of doing the same and it seems as 90 per sq. ft. is an average for that area.

trying to walk a straight line on sour mash and cheap wine...

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utopiacowboy says on Aug 18, 2006, 21:38:

$170,000? In Medellin? I can buy a nice house in San Antonio, Texas for that. I'm glad that my wife still has her apartment in Belen near Laureles at that rate.

Disclaimer: any comment I make is inane and is not to be taken seriously, and is so patently ridiculous that no one should take it seriously, even as an insult.

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griffbos says on Aug 19, 2006, 11:12:

Why I think friends just sold there place in Envigado they paid 45.000.000 pesos 2 years ago and got 67.000.000 pesos recently when they sold it. and my other friends are saying prices are going up. that is why I want to buy now and not wait 3 years to buy.

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Brians says on Aug 20, 2006, 10:05:

Yeah UC it has gotten expensive however you have to do what you have to do. Since I don't have any family in San Antonio I have to pay Poblado prices:) I thought a year ago I would spend a lot less but as you look around and try to fine tune what you want then prices seem to go up. Anyway my wife's mother ownes a couple of rentas n Belen but they live in Poblado now. I like Belen but wanted to be closer to her mom.

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medellinmike says on Aug 22, 2006, 22:33:

Penthouse for sale in Poblado Im selling my Penthouse in Poblado Please contact me if your interested, See this site for details/pictures and my contact info.
www.pobladoapt.8k.com

Mike

Have a Great Life

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medellinmike says on Aug 22, 2006, 22:34:

Penthouse for sale in Poblado Im selling my Penthouse in Poblado Please contact me if your interested, See this site for details/pictures and my contact info.
www.pobladoapt.8k.com

Mike

Have a Great Life

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