Juan Valdez IPO

pedro says on Feb 10, 2008, 13:53:

Looks interesting. This is still in preparation. I guess it may happen sometime later in the year.

que nota!

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juli says on Feb 10, 2008, 14:18:

Creo que no sea una buena idea....

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goin_south says on Feb 10, 2008, 14:19:

por que no? juli

Where do we go from here?

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juli says on Feb 10, 2008, 14:21:

Que está pasando con Starbucks? Eso....

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jonas says on Feb 10, 2008, 14:42:

pues un cafecito en starbucks cuesta como 7 dolares, no?

Simon Presidente!

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miamimike says on Feb 10, 2008, 15:20:

Jonas-I frequent Starbucks in my Neighborhood here in Miami--a Grande Decaf is $1.85, not even close to $7,,,,

On the IPO, depends on the initial starting price and if its opened to small investors as opposed to Large Institutional Investors who snap up it up the first day for a large profit run-up then dump it on the secondary market next day for the Peons to buy. They(JV) are in for some pretty stiff Competition here in the USA, not to mention, it really isn't a recognizable brand name outside of Colombia. How many Coffee Shops outside of Colombia, other then One in New York, do they have in the USA, Canada or Europe? Starbucks recently reported sales down due to the Economic Downturn here in the USA so JV is going to need to generate some BIG BUCKS to penetrate the US market,,,

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jonas says on Feb 10, 2008, 15:32:

miamimike well, you are asking about JV in Europe... they are still not a recognized brand but from what I remember (I might be a little off) they were going to expand to 40 shops in Spain by this year. That would change the picture. Would you have rather bought Starbucks stock before they became so popular or after? Besides I don´t think it´s just about Coffee Shops, it´s more like what they are talking about in the article, distributing their coffee to restaurant chains and McCafes. They have done this with great success here in Colombia.

Simon Presidente!

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miamimike says on Feb 10, 2008, 18:17:

My Problem with JV is that it has the Modern Look and I would prefer it to have a rustic decor. I cannot for the most part call stocks well enough to buy on the Day of the IPO or afterwards and make money with 50% success or better so I avoid them.I leave 'em for the Hotshot Investors, which I am not! LOL For individual small investors, its(ipos) a pretty mixed bag as far as investor success...It depends on too many variables beyond my control.Thats why I'm invested almost 100% in Mutual funds. I have to really like the product to invest in it individually and as I mentioned, the Modern style decor leaves me flat. They should copy the decor of the Colombian Recuerdos Taberna(very typical) here in Miami and they would have a winner, IMHO

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BillBigD says on Feb 10, 2008, 21:00:

I think the one in Cali looks quite nice, but the 9:00am opening is a little dumb if you ask me.

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billyb says on Feb 10, 2008, 21:05:

"Juan Valdez" was the world's second most recognized icon last year also......

" In September 2005 the Juan Valdez character was awarded the title of Advertising Week´s "Advertising Icon of the year". During this contest, organized in New York, Juan Valdez received over 200.000 votes and defeated other well recognized characters such as Geico´s Geco, the energizer Bunny and Double Mint Twins."

http://www.juanvaldez.com/menu/advertising/index.html

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goin_south says on Feb 10, 2008, 21:40:

yeah? what happened to Coca-Cola, NYY, MSN...

I believe the voting was fixed!

Where do we go from here?

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billyb says on Feb 10, 2008, 22:00:

Coke's name is more recognizable, but what about the icon? They have the coca-cola script, but no icon (maybe the classic coke bottle). What is MSN's icon?

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goin_south says on Feb 10, 2008, 22:07:

msn' s icon?
I'm jus guessin... 90% of the computer users world-wide would recognize it.
Coke? the name as written, is the icon.

Where do we go from here?

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goin_south says on Feb 10, 2008, 22:09:

and, then there's this:

Where do we go from here?

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scotty says on Feb 11, 2008, 02:55:

yup thats the one..NY

Get Rhythm, when you got the blues. Johnny Cash

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scotty says on Feb 11, 2008, 02:57:

dont forget the IBM and golden arches McDonalds, the lion at Metro Goldwyn and a few others

Get Rhythm, when you got the blues. Johnny Cash

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sloopskipper says on Feb 11, 2008, 05:48:

"miamimike says on Sunday February 10th, 2008 15:20:

Jonas-I frequent Starbucks in my Neighborhood here in Miami--a Grande Decaf is $1.85, not even close to $7,,,,"

I first discovered Starbucks in the Newark airport, a week after 9-11 and the price in 2001 was $3.50. At that time, I felt if I was going to spend that amount for a cup of coffee, it had better be in a 5 star restaurant.

I wonder is Juan Valdez be available as an ADR in the U.S. I read it will first be available to the coffee farmers.

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miamimike says on Feb 11, 2008, 07:22:

SS-$3.50 for WHAT type of Coffee?? Last night, now in 2008, I still am paying only $1.85 at my neighborhood Starbucks. Not to mention, they have unlimited Cream, Sugar, splenda, Napkins, ect(within reason). Not to mention, and it has endeared me to Starbucks, last year at our local North Miami Memorial Day's Celebration Honoring our Deceased Veterans, a Starbucks Mobil Coffee Van pulled up, no fanfare, offering their Free Coffee, Pastries to all the Vets and their Families in attendence. They weren't Asked to do this, they just did so even if all things were equal Quality wise, Starbucks gets my Loyalty for this Gesture. No One else, in the Neighborhood, has done anything similiar for the Vets, to date. Maybe the price you payed is an Airport Price, I believe BK, Macs, Subways prices may be a little higher also due to the "Trapped Buying Enviroment" found in a Airport. I bring my Subway Sandwich in from outside to avoid this,,, I read in a Financial report the reason JV located their first Coffee shop in NYC was because the Colombian Coffee growers Consortium allready owned the Buildings in which JV is now locatd,,,

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podborski says on Feb 11, 2008, 07:24:

I love the the JV coffee and the cafes I have been to in Bogota. But I'm thinking like miamimike here, I don't know how profitable they are, in comparison to a relatively plain Starbucks?

Service is pretty damn slow too...not that I mind waiting there, it's always a good scene : )

But I'd like to know the numbers, it'd be interesting. I imagine though it will be a hot IPO, people buying it at any price just because they like the brand, or are patriotic colombians (are they any of those here? jaja)

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miamimike says on Feb 11, 2008, 07:47:

Review Comments on NYC's JV Coffee shop: http://www.yelp.com/biz/juan-valdez-cafe-new-york

P'ski--if its a Hot IPO and Big Money to be made, the Institutional Groups(penson/mutual funds) Warren Buffet level Investors will get the action on the first day. If there is a Large First day run-up price wise, the small investors will get their chance ONLY on Day 2 after the large investors have sold the Stock and having taken their Profits, small investors will get a crack at the stock when it hits the secondary markets. The small guys will miss that big first day Bump some IPOs offer,,,Who knows, maybe it will be like Google and keep going like the Energizer Rabbit,,,LOL

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pedro says on Feb 11, 2008, 07:59:

Mike, that doesn't make any sense to me. Secondary markets? This is going to list on the BVC in Bogota.

The general public are going to get their chance to buy in during the public offer phase. Usually the general public is given a free run, and the institutions are locked out altogether.

On listing day, the BVC has its own trading rules that suspend the stock until buyers and sellers properly match (a collective auction, more or less). When Ecopetrol listed, it went "limit up" 3 or 4 days in a row with vanishingly little volume traded.

que nota!

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miamimike says on Feb 11, 2008, 08:06:

Pedro, Here in the USA, thats how a lot of IPOs work. The Big guys get Huge Blocks of the new stock and many times, if there is a Good runup in price, many dump it by the end of trading one the first day, then the rest of the investing public gets their shot on the next day marekt(or secondary) This happened to me on the Euro-Disney IPO back in the early 90s. IPOs aren't for the faint hearted t say the least,,,unless you have tons of money to risk,,,

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jonas says on Feb 11, 2008, 08:07:

pod you are so right about the slow service! But hey, at least they serve coffee that actually tastes like coffee :-) last time I went to a Starbucks I felt like an idiot trying to get a normal real coffee

Simon Presidente!

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miamimike says on Feb 11, 2008, 08:09:

Jonas-thats Odd as Starbucks does use a lot of Colombian Beans in their Blends,,,Maybe its in the Grind and Brew method as Starbucks may feel the General American Public doesn't like such a robust taste. I sent a 5 lb sack of Ground Colombian Coffee to my Brother-in-law and Sister. They complained it was too strong for their tastes so that could account for the difference. Maybe a Finer grind?

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jonas says on Feb 11, 2008, 08:13:

miamimike yes but try ordering "a coffee"....

Simon Presidente!

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miamimike says on Feb 11, 2008, 10:03:

Pedro, on the Secondary Markets;here''s a few links that may explain it better then I can: http://invest-faq.com/cbc/stock-ipo.html

http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199-6929893/Tokyo-IPO-Monthly-Repo...

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miamimike says on Feb 11, 2008, 10:15:

jonas says on Monday February 11th, 2008 8:13:

miamimike yes but try ordering "a coffee"....

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Jonas--you are preaching to the Choir as I am a Coffee Addict. What JV has do is offer Coffee Americans are willing to buy that suitable to their Taste. What they think Coffee here in the US, not Colombia, should taste like after paying a Premium price. JV will have to succesfully capture US Market/Consumer Share for them to be Successful in the Long run here in the US..Case In Point, A Large well known Miami Based fast Chicken Eatery Chain known as Pollo Tropical is Huge success in Miami due to the Latin/Carribbean Market living here but when they went and Built in St. Petersurg,Fl(by Tampa) a new Restaurant, they had to Close the Restaurant after 6 months as the American Clientel did NOT like the Taste of the Chicken,,,,That's JV's task in Mid America,,,where Starbucks is a Huge Success

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pedro says on Feb 11, 2008, 11:30:

Mike, interesting enough, but not really relevant to what we're discussing here.

The offer has nothing to do with the US capital markets. The IPO process in the USA is nothing like the process I have observed in other countries.

Where there's a privatisation of a national champion, they will make damn sure that it's an open offer. There would be a huge outcry if only the fat cats could get shares and then those shares made a bucketload of money.

The first two lines of the original news article make it clear that the public are going to be allowed to buy in, and on equal or favourable terms.

During the Ecopetrol offer, they took great pride in communicating the number and diversity of shareholders who signed up. They even let you subscribe for shares and pay later in 12 monthly quotas.

que nota!

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miamimike says on Feb 11, 2008, 12:02:

Wow,what you say happens in Colombia on IPOs never happens here in the USA, or rarely so. Small Investors here don't get a crack at the Stock until the next day or so when it hits the secondary market. Not Fair but who said life was ever fair,,,,but for a US based Investor buying ADRs on JV, from the US, what rules would apply?

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jonas says on Feb 11, 2008, 12:33:

mike good point on the difference of taste... It reminds me of the posts on italian pizza where every yank tells about his worst experience ever. You are right there. And the croissants at JV are just awful. But does going IPO necessarily mean they want to build a major chain in the US? In Spain they have been doing very well but that also does in no way mean they will do well all over Europe. But if they start selling their beans to McDo and get into other restaurant chains with this strategy maybe that´s what they are really after?

Simon Presidente!

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billyb says on Feb 11, 2008, 12:53:

Just look at the recent partial privatization of Ecopetrol to see how it was handled as far as alocations.

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sloopskipper says on Feb 11, 2008, 13:49:

miamimike says on Monday February 11th, 2008 7:22:

"SS-$3.50 for WHAT type of Coffee??"

That was just plain coffee. In Viejo San Juan in 2003 or 04 it was about the same.

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sloopskipper says on Feb 11, 2008, 13:53:

miamimike says on Monday February 11th, 2008 12:02:

" . . . . but for a US based Investor buying ADRs on JV, from the US, what rules would apply?"

Mike, the only diffrence I see on ADRs is that you probably must pay some foreign taxes on dividend, which seems to be deductible.

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Mr. Hollywood says on Feb 11, 2008, 15:00:

JV in the United States is missing the most crucial element of the ones in Colombia, namely, Colombians.

I went into one in Washington DC looking for a little taste of Bogota. The dumb cows behind the counter, however, probably couldn't have even located Colombia on a globe, and the coffee was crap. I noticed recently while back in DC that the same JV had gone out of business while the Starbucks across the street was booming.

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BillBigD says on Feb 11, 2008, 16:22:

I think the coffee tastes very good but have been only to the one in Cali. I also don't care for the taste of Starbucks coffee. It tastes bitter to me.
ADR's- If the the IPO is a hot one the small investor will get in line and gets the stock on the opening price the same day. But this can often be at a higher price than the IPO price.

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CristalM says on Feb 11, 2008, 16:55:

Just an FYI, There was a news article recently that Starbucks is experimenting with the regular coffees for under 2$, that is why you aren't paying over 3$...You are an experiment!!! In OKC there are no drinks on the menu under 2$.
I owned a small coffee shop for awhile and know my coffee, detest starbucks, always thought you are just paying for the name. Love JV and will try to buy in on day 1.
Do you all know the profit margin on those latte's? Espresso shot....0.15$, milk 0.08$ (cappuccino size), syrups will get you...Tourani is about 0.25$ per shot. You do the math. I think there is plenty of room for someone to compete with SB.

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jonas says on Feb 11, 2008, 18:50:

Latest NEWS: JV just announced an agreement with 780 Walmart stores to distribute their coffee.

Simon Presidente!

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Simon says on Feb 11, 2008, 19:29:

Fok Starbucks!!

Drink Juan Valdez.... or else I'm coming to get you!!!

"Tu vas a ver, llegaras a mi edad y veras que Colombia seguira igual"-----Simon Sr.

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pedro says on Feb 11, 2008, 19:48:

When the offer comes out to the public, I think many Colombians are gonna want a piece of Juancho and Lana.

que nota!

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BillBigD says on Feb 11, 2008, 21:04:

The experiment was actually in Seattle and included free re-fills

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miamimike says on Feb 11, 2008, 21:58:

SS--I was at my Neighborod Starbucks just a few hours ago and here's the Deal at this SB(10 minutes south of the Adventura Mall in North Dade). I asked the Manager at this store what his MOST Expensive Coffee he had in his Store Tonight--and he said a Large Latte or Frappuccino which was $4.50--Tops,,, so a Far cry from $7 per cup. I sat and had three cups(grande) of Decaf. I payed $1.85 for the first cup and .54 cents for each refill, so all together, $2.93 for all 3 cups. Not a Bad Price for Premium Coffee in an upscale coffee bar IMHO.

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miamimike says on Feb 11, 2008, 22:23:

BillBigD--usually on an IPO, the small investor Usually Never gets in Line on the Opening day and his pick of the Stock. Thats set aside for the Brokerage House marketing the IPO for their largest Institutional Customers(large pension fund managers ect). The small investor gets the scraps that fall off the table or leftovers. Google in their IPO in 2004, set a Dutch Auction to allocate their Shares, leveling the Playing field for everyone but they are unusual.

Exerpt from the below link: "To get Visa stock throught the ipo you need to have a brokerage account with an investment bank that is part of the underwiters list on the prospectus. You then need to give an order to your registered rep. Expect to receive much smaller allocation than you request."

http://askville.amazon.com/buy-VISA-IPO-stock-opening-prebook/AnswerVi...

Google IPO:"Rather than following conventional Wall Street practices, Google chose to use a Dutch auction process. The reasons for choosing this unusual approach were laid out in the offering prospectus: "It is important for us to have a fair process for our IPO that is inclusive of both small and large investors. It is also crucial that we achieve a good outcome for Google and its current shareholders. This has led us to pursue an auction-based IPO for our entire offering. Our goal is to have a share price that reflects an efficient market valuation of Google that moves rationally based on changes in our business and the stock market."



http://209.85.207.104/custom?q=cache:N6rfa0rrJQYJ:www.ivey.ca/faculty/...

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Robert Jorge says on Feb 11, 2008, 23:25:

Starbucks here in north Florida: One large regular (though premium) Colombian bean coffee - $1.80. One vente Frappacino, extra shot of espresso, $5.20. As of today.

I welcome a Juan Valdez coffee shop ... unfortunately nothing like that in my neck of the woods. At least comparing the prices I paid at the Andino mall in Bogota at JV, to StBks here, they are comparible. When I am looking for decent, strong, good tasting coffee - in my opinion Dunkin Donuts and even McDonalds now can offer a great cup at less than $2.

BEWARE of gold diggers.

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BillBigD says on Feb 12, 2008, 21:02:

Mike-I think we agree on the IPO process. I was just saying you can buy it the same day but you are right it is often at a higher price.

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