Is the peso weakening?

poco says on Oct 9, 2005, 13:10:

Better think about What GIB says because it is spot on. Seriously, why do you think poor people are HAPPY?

I'd personally NEVER have ANY money in Colombia even if the cost was a MEANINGLESS potential financial loss. Oh,, I'd advise you find out WHO presently owns ANY property purchased and how they got their money to purchase.

Don't worry,, be happy

"When you men get home and face an anti-war protester, look him in the eyes and shake his hand. Then, wink at his girlfriend, because she knows she's dating a pussy." Quote - General Tommy Franks

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BAQ says on Oct 9, 2005, 14:55:

HUMMM GIB, I agree with most of what you wrote but I am not sure what you are saying about the 20K disposable income. I purchased my home here and if someone wanted 20K from my, they would be shit out of luck, so guess I would be dead hahaahha.

Are you speaking of Medellin or about all of Colombia?

I am asking because there don;t seem to be very many Gringo's living in Barranquilla when compaired to Bogota and Medellin. In Barranquilla, the problems HERE seem to be:

1. Armed robbery of store owners taking money to the banks from the stores, and I mean amounts like 5 & 10 million COP's at at time.
2. Armed robbery of people leaving the banks with large amounts of cash.
3. Home invasions, 3-4 guys show up in a truck, tie the home owner up and literally take everything (Electronics, nice furniture ect. from the house, any cash and jewelry ect. place it in a truck, then leave.

I was just curious.

THANKS !

Semper Fidelis !

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johnboy77 says on Oct 9, 2005, 15:21:

GIB,

I know I have had differences with you about this, and I don't want to get into it again... I think I called you a psyco the other day... which was out of line, and I do apologize...

But, I just finished walking my dog through El Poblado in Medellin. I passed about 50 Casas that must be worth more than $150,000 US, and past all kinds of apartment complexes that have 150m2 to 250m2 floor space, which sell for between $80,000 USD and $150,000 USD, and I was passed my all kinds of SUVS, BMWs, Mercedis.... These El Pobaldo people all have money, and are not affraid to buy places, why should a Gringo be so affraid?

To a criminal, what is the difference between a Gringo with $20,000 of desposable income, and a Colombian with a net value over $400,000 (of which their are many in El Poblado). Yes, Colombia is a lot more dangerous, but a gringo won't stick out like a sore thumb amonst many Colombians with as much, or more money. If a Gringo buys an apartment for $200,000 USD, chances are, he will be living near to about 100 Colombians who paid the exact same price. Why is it the American will be targeted??

Also, KIDNAPPERS and EXTORSIONIST usually do their homework. They target Colombians with MILLIONS of dollars, not Gringos with $20,000. Of course, this isn't always the case, and like I said, Colombia is not all that safe, but I really don't think as a Gringo with property you will stick out anymore than a wealthy Colombian with property. I don't think the criminals are racist... they just want the money.

I tried to keep this post free of insults... sorry about the last time.

Dave

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BAQ says on Oct 9, 2005, 15:28:

Ya know, reading what we are posting, I think we are gunna scare the shit out of this guy.

MANTIS, you will probably be ok, but DO NOT come down here with a "Look at me girls, I am a Gringo with money" attitude, that will get you in LOTS of trouble from a security stand point. Personally, I try to stay tanned up, I dress down and try to blend in. NO FANCY CARS, flashy Jewelry, flashy cloths and unless you Spanish is perfect, don;t talk much when you are alone on the street. I don;t speak much if I am alone in the street and when I DO speak, it is in a low tone and directly to the person I need to speak with.

Just my opinion, but this is the SMART thing to do with regards to security. Just don;t get STUPID and you should be ok.

Semper Fidelis !

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platano says on Oct 9, 2005, 16:01:

GIB, you are scaring the guy... You say: "I was here in 84 and I know what it can be like here..."

I was living in Medellin in 84 and had a lovely time. You learn to turn over and go back to sleep when a bomb blast wakes you up. No big deal!

And from what everyone says, including you: Colombians can handle their own problems and the situation has improved since Uribe became president.

I think it is a good time to buy an apartment in Medellin, if you have the money.

Plátano X
Oxigeno Verde ¡Libertad por Ingrid y los demás!

plátano

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utopiacowboy says on Oct 9, 2005, 16:10:

That's what my wife says too, Platano. She lived in Medellin for 25 years before she left in 2003 and it was always muy tranquilo.

Disclaimer: any comment I make is inane and is not to be taken seriously, and is so patently ridiculous that no one should take it seriously, even as an insult.

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litost says on Oct 9, 2005, 16:49:

Or maybe it's just that gringoinbogota wants to be the ONLY gringoincolombia, living a happy and pretty carefree life. That's just the conclusion I can come to after reading so many (SO MANY) enormous efforts on gringoinbogota's part to scare everybody else away from Colombia.

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mantis says on Oct 9, 2005, 17:52:

Thanks My original question was to figure out exactly when I should send the rest of my money to get the best exchange rate. of course, no one here has that type of insight or I imagine their name would be Trump or Buffet or some Arab name I can't even pronounce or spell. Scared, no, heck I wouldn't have bought an apartment in Colombia if this was the case. Try living in Tbilis, Georgia during the country's revolution. That was scary. Gringoinbogota, thanks for your insight. Yes I imagine the suards in my building will know I am an American and exactly how much I paid for the place. Not to mention my patterens for coming in and out of the place and the type of people I hang out with. I lived in Russia and am all to used to these things. Just the other day here in the States a bunch of upper middle class youths threatened to beat the s! at t out of me just for looking at them. Was I scared, probably a little bit but fortunately I just came from the pistol range and had my 45 cal Glock pistol in my glove box. This gave me enough comfort in this situation. The point is, just like many others have stated throughout this website, you can either live your entire life being afraid (and I must say like most Americans are) of what is out there in different parts of the owrld, or you can embrace it and try not to ruffle too many feathers while you are doing it. I don't plan to have a gun in my glovebox in Colombia but I atleast will have a healthy respect for the negative elements out there. How about that echange rate....

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Rubiazo says on Oct 9, 2005, 20:17:

I just tell everybody I am from the Bronx, and connected with some of the local Paisas up here. That usually scares the living fuck out of them :)

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mantis says on Oct 10, 2005, 07:51:

I know a place for you gringoinbogota, if you like the wild west days, you should try a little town I know about a 2 hour drive north from Baghdad. Pretty wild and not many gringos there. You would probably fit right in :)

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mantis says on Oct 10, 2005, 08:03:

You're alright, that is pretty funny... lol... don't forget the suntan lotion

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Mr. Hollywood says on Oct 10, 2005, 10:17:

The peso Manti, you sound like you'll be just fine in Medellin. The wild card regarding the exchange rate is the Constitutional Court ruling on whether to allow Uribe to run for re-election (in other words, if Uribe is the NEXT president until 2010).

If the court rules against, I'd expect the peso to drop against the dollar because a lot of the inflows of dollars were based on the perception of security under Uribe. I wouldn't expect a ruling in favor of Uribe to push the peso up much, however. So there's your gamble. Personally, I'd wait the few weeks, since the court is rumored to rule any day now.

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mantis says on Oct 12, 2005, 12:45:

Have to wait and see Yeah Mr. Hollywood, I am waiting on just that. If he isn't allowed to run again I imagine the peso's value should decrease. The next question will be who is going to replace him and how will that affect things in Colombia.

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Mr. Hollywood says on Oct 12, 2005, 13:09:

The next question Personally, I think the impact, if Uribe isn't allowed to run, will be largely emotional and probably overblown. The good things that Uribe has done, like getting the military out of the barracks and into the field, getting road security, etc., aren't going to be undone because of a change of administration. Whoever moves into the Palacio de Nariño next is going to have to continue with those efforts or else it'd be political suicide. And it's possible that a new administration might have an easier time negotiating with the ELN and maybe the FARC.

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toneloc24 says on Oct 12, 2005, 14:31:

Johnboy77 I normally don't agree with GIB either, but he does make plenty of sense here.

What you fail to understand is that the ladrones aren't stupid. They KNOW where the gringo's $20,000 probably comes from. And more than likely, the gringo isn't armed. They'll take that risk.

Now the Colombian worth $400,000 or more in Poblado, they have no idea where that money comes from, who he or she might be connected, and would rather not find out. Why take that risk?

Sure, people get robbed all the time in the street. Extortions occur with working folks. The rich folks who get robbed, probably didn't take care of business. Gringos are just the easiest targets.

The exchange rate against the dollar sucks for foreigners go to Colombia, Brasil, etc. right now. With such a volatile exchange rate, I personally wouldn't spend $100,000USD right now for something that might only be valued at $75,000-80,000USD in a couple of years.

Ex. paying COP2200 to $1USD, vs. COP2750 to $1USD. Such was the case a couple years ago. JMO.

"PBH is dead!!!!"

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CaryGrant says on Oct 12, 2005, 17:24:

"KIDNAPPERS and EXTORSIONIST usually do their homework" - well, I read that 70% of kidnappees are never seen again, so either the kidnappers are not very good at homework, or the poor buggers who get nabbed have greedy relatives....

Also - I saw a chart today comparing the currencies of many western democracies plus a few others like China. Colombia was not included. Every currency (US, UK, France, etc.) had been trending significantly down compared to Canada. Of course, this could change next week, or next election, or next recession, or...

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BAQ says on Oct 27, 2005, 10:33:

Peso, Dollar & Uribe Had a conversation last night with an "Ex" Senator here in barranquilla. We talked about a number of issues and while we were discussing the PESO, here is what he said:

"I think Pres. Uribe's Govt is holding up the Peso, to show the economy is gery good under his administration and to help his position for a 2nd term in office. Once he is re-elected, then I think you will see the peso fall, but not until after he is re-elected"

I have NO IDEA if he is correct or not, but if you see what the U.S. Govt does in a Presidential election year to strengthen the economy, it made sence to me.

Just a thought

Semper Fidelis !

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colombianKid says on Oct 27, 2005, 10:46:

Don't be scared. I don't think you should be scared to buy an apartment man, my mom has 4 houses in Envigado and we are going to buy another one soon, we just helped my uncle with the downpayment for his and we still have never gotten kidnapped, we travel back and forth. Why? well i don't know, i just know the money we but the houses with is hard earned money and we don't just have it laying around and one day decide we want a new house, there is a lot of money in colombia. A LOT, and an apartment is almost nothing copared to the kind of money other potential targets have. El Poblado is a great place for an apartment, very nice place, if you want to go down a couple of estratos look into envigado, Envigado has some great places and it's right next to El poblado, also la frontera is a little cheaper and very good neighborhood.

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pepster says on Oct 27, 2005, 11:09:

BAQ You've made a good point.

That's what douche-bag Bush did...he just let the dollar slide at the beginning of his first term. Although, the dollar was doing plenty on it's own to crap out, Europe has been very frustrated with the cheap dollar.

The Pepster ColombianBlog.com

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BAQ says on Oct 28, 2005, 12:23:

the 21% is what I question I agree, the peso has taken a huge bounce, what I don;t know (wish I had my crystal ball) is if this is a temporary trend, real or artificial to some degree.

As far as the "International" trade, and this is a QUESTION, does not a strong peso hurt Colombia with regards to exporting goods since the goods exported are more expensive to purchase when the peso is strong?

Semper Fidelis !

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Rubiazo says on Oct 28, 2005, 12:34:

The interesting thing is that there was a thread on brazzil.com talking about the same subject, but over in Brazil.
My opinion is that in general, a strong peso is a GOOD thing for the average Colombian because they are earning pesos. Even 'export-based' economies import a lot more than one might realize. And the people who get hurt most when a currency goes the other way and devalues rapidly are the average working people of a country, who are trying to get ahead.
It is usually the elite who have their money already in other countries who are crying when the peso gets stronger as it reduces their leverage. Obviously for many of us on this board, we benefit directly from a weaker peso also. But for anybody actually earning pesos, the stronger the peso is the better.
Interestingly enough, the Brazilian gov't for the first time in history will be offering bonds denominated in Reais. I'm hoping to be able to get in on some of this action next year. They are paying a whopping 12.5%, plus whatever else the real will gain (assuming it does, which I think is very likely.)

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Brians says on Oct 28, 2005, 12:35:

Peso's Stength does hurt trade This is ture BAQ in most cases. However in Colombia's case it is slightly different. International trade is not huge. Therefore the strenghtening is probably more of a confidence in the political stability of the country. Actually a strengthing Peso will probably help attract International Investment into the country. That is what Colombia really needs. I have always said that it is a hidden gem. Think about it. A short plane ride to the largest economy in the world. A highly educated work force at extremely cheap prices. The stigma of drugs and revolutions are the reasons for the lack of Intertional Investment from companies. However as that reverses the Peso will continue to strenghten. I hope one day you will see the IBMs of the world opening facilities in Colombia but time will only tell.

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BAQ says on Oct 28, 2005, 14:17:

This is interesting Rubiazo, I agree with what you said, it makes "American" made goods cheaper for Colombians to purchase.

INTERESTING, I was at Vivero grocery shopping yesterday. "Scott" paper towls, "Heinz" tomatoe sauce, "Helmens" Mayonnaise and many other products were cheaper to buy than their Colombian produced counterparts so obviously I purchased the "American" brands.

So, this begs the question, what about the the Colombian company and the guy working for the Colombian company who makes the "Colombian Brands". If they are selling less because the american brands are now cheaper, then jobs are lost.

Guess we will have to see how all this plays out in the big picture.

Semper Fidelis !

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