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is it just me

i arrive at work every day here and read the local paper and every single day it seems like the colombian bolsa is setting a new record...

last year colombias stock market went up 106% or so.. the second best preforming stock market in the world.. the year before it was up 126% over the last five years it is up over 1000%... just this year it is already up over 10%... yesterday alone up 3.6%...bancolombia has doubled in like six months it seems...

how much longer is this going to go on.... i just realised i pay 0.4% on each transaction i do with bancolombia... they're making a lot of money.... anyone with any opinions on whether or not they are still a good buy or any other stocks to get a hold of...also any idea of how to buy stocks here in colombia. anyone have any contacts/ brokers... i feel it may be a bit late to jump on the bandwagon but it probably isnt. and stock will probably jump at least 50% this year....

kelvin

By gorgonabob on Jan 14, 2006, 07:47 in Friendly Talkzone.

tomtom33 (☼Travelguide writer) says on Jan 14, 2006, 08:39:

My guess: get out or stay out. What goes up....

I have my money in a US total market index fund. It will not jump 50% this year. But I'm fairly sure that it won't lose 50% either. Since I'm in this for the rest of my life, what happens this year is not that important anyway. I am interested in my return over the next 20 to 30 years.

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caulfield2 says on Jan 14, 2006, 09:15:

Yes, historically, the return of a tracking or index fund since the Great Depression has averaged (pretax and inflation adjustment) about a 9-10% return. This would be a stock fund...if you combine it with bonds to mitigate your risk, you are looking at a 6-8% rate of return, on average. Statistically, one rule of thumb is always to have the same percentage as your age in bonds and the remainder in stocks...as you get older, your return possibilities go down but so does the risk of putting all your eggs in the Enron basket and going totally broke. Never have more than 10% of your investments in one individual company is a rule of thumb. Personally, I prefer Legg Mason and Oakmark mutual fund companies, two of the best.

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tomtom33 (☼Travelguide writer) says on Jan 14, 2006, 12:04:

Caulfield Oakmark is good. I'm a John Bogle(Vanguard) disciple. Like Bogle, I don't believe that any individual should own any individual company's stock.

I tend to have a higher percentage in stocks than your rule of thumb. I have a high comfort level with a broadly diversified portfolio combined with a very low cost ratio. Maybe when I get within 10 years of my statistical life span, I will cut back on stocks.

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Boatygringo says on Jan 14, 2006, 12:39:

Stocks The way to go is buy Gold, you can do this on line at a site called Gold Money you can cash in your gold for most world currencies 24/7 on line and Gold has increased in value and continues to do so. If every thing goes down the tube Gold will still be worth money. Yes I have other investments but Gold has performed the best.

Boatygringo

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tomtom33 (☼Travelguide writer) says on Jan 14, 2006, 13:47:

Your time horizon is too short. How about if we compare the performance of gold to stocks over the last 25 years?

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caulfield2 says on Jan 14, 2006, 14:22:

My mom has a ton of Vanguard in her retirement plans (500, Value, Growth)...you're right, low turnover of stocks with Vanguard, so they don't cut much into your profits as they shuffle around at the end of the year and quarter to churn results on paper that really drag your returns down in the end. It is designed for people who just want to invest regularly, not have to worry about performance from day to day or month to month. The Warren Buffet philosophy of investing in stocks, then never looking at your returns more often than once per year if you have confidence in your original decision-making process.

Legg Mason Value Trust, which has beaten the S&P 13 or 14 years in a row now, does have a high cost in this area, but it's a no-load fund at least. I have never paid a load in my life, nor will I ever.

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tomtom33 (☼Travelguide writer) says on Jan 14, 2006, 17:29:

The nifty thing about index funds is their tax efficiency. You can build up a sizable unrealized long-term capital gain. You don't pay any taxes on the gain until you sell.

In an estate, the basis is accelerated to the date of death. You never have to pay taxes on that gain.

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pedro (☼Travelguide writer) says on Jan 16, 2006, 12:02:

BanColombia is a good business. You need to figure what you think is a fair price for that business.

Big picture for a retail bank -- anything priced below 10x earnings is cheap. Anything above 15x earnings is starting to look expensive, but there may be a reason for the premium.

You need to look at things like earnings growth history and where the country is in its economic cycle (interest rates etc). And of course forward looking picture of what the business will do.

I have not bought stocks in Colombia, but I would start by buying a money magazine and look at the listings with stats on the top companies (P/E etc). You should also be able to get hold of analysts reports on large companies, especially if you sign up with a stockbroking service.

You can find in the UK Financial Times aggregate P/E of all countries' stock markets. From that you can figure out if Colombia is fairly valued or not relative to other countries.

que nota!

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caulfield2 says on Jan 16, 2006, 16:07:

http://www.nasdaq.com/earnings/analyst_summary.asp?symbol=cib`&selected=cib`

Here is a good snapshot of the stock. Right now, the PE is around 16. It has gone from $13 to $31 in one year, something like a 130% rate of return for one year.

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poco says on Jan 16, 2006, 21:01:

Uribe Got it Right For the first time in ??? what ??? 60 years ?

First came here about the time he took over as President. The change has been DRAMATIC,,,, almost unbelievable. The current administration has done more to help the poor than any in current memory. Schools, jobs, housing assistance, medical treatment etc.

You need to be blind not to see the difference his administration has made.

The spin off of this is of course the stock market,,,,Bancolombia being a small portion.

1800 percent in 4 years,,, hummmm,, so what is popular ??? I GOT IT

Bank Popular,,, way to easy I guess,,, not a Colombian Bank, not stellar performance, not highly recommended,, frankly maybe a turkey,, still,, long lines at Colombian Branches, very popular (there's that word again) with the Mexican population in Houston, high fees,,, I have an ATM card and it looks like very low ATM fees in Colombia, lower than Wells Fargo for sure.

General Info.
Popular, Inc. is a diversified bank holding
company. Its principal bank subsidiary is
Banco Popular de Puerto Rico (Banco
Popular). The Company has three other
principal subsidiaries: Popular Securities,
Inc., Popular International Bank, Inc. (PIB)
and EVERTEC, Inc. Its other subsidiaries
include Popular Life RE, a reinsurance
company; Popular Capital Trust 1, a
statutory business trust, and Popular
Capital Trust II, statutory business trust. On
August 31, 2004, the Company completed
the acquisition of Quaker City Bancorp.
Quaker City was a savings and loan holding
company for Quaker City Bank, based in
Whittier, California. On January 3, 2005,
the Company acquired Kislak Financial
Corporation and its wholly owned
subsidiary, Kislak National Bank, a Miami,
Florida-based commercial bank.

"When you men get home and face an anti-war protester, look him in the eyes and shake his hand. Then, wink at his girlfriend, because she knows she's dating a pussy." Quote - General Tommy Franks

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