Is Colombia Safe - Interesting Article

Simon says on Jan 4, 2007, 21:59:

GREAT ARTICLE BICKERSS Friday January 5, 12:29 AM
Is Colombia as safe as the U.S.? Poll says yes
BOGOTA (Reuters) - Cities in Colombia, the world's biggest cocaine exporter infamous for crimes related to its four-decade-old guerrilla war, have become as safe as those in the United States, according to a poll by a Bogota think tank.
Urban crime has fallen as part of President Alvaro Uribe's popular crackdown on Marxist rebels who still control wide rural areas. He has stepped up patrols to reduced kidnappings on the highways.

From October 2005 through the same month last year, 15 of every 100 Colombians said they had been the victim of some type of crime compared with 17 out of every 100 in the United States, said the poll published on Thursday by the Security and Democracy foundation.

"Colombians have developed sophisticated techniques of survival, such as refusing to give out personal information and women driving with their bags in the trunk of their cars rather than in the passenger seat. This helps," said Pablo Casas, who prepared the poll.

The survey, held in Colombia's six biggest cities, also showed the Andean country compares well with Great Britain, which registers 24 crime victims out of every 100 citizens.

The think tank said the poll is 95.5 percent reliable and more accurate than official figures as many crimes go unreported here.

It did not take into account the thousands who are killed or displaced in the war every year, or the average three Colombians per day who step on land mines.

Despite billions of dollars in U.S. aid aimed in part at fighting Colombia's insurgency, the guerrillas still rule wide swathes of countryside with an iron fist. Their operations are funded by cocaine trade, and to a lesser extent by kidnappings.

The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, dragged four civilians out of their village homes and executed them on January 1 in northern province of Antioquia, local officials said.

"The government has a lot to do before it can claim to have taken control of the whole country," Casas said. "Illegal groups are still fighting for control of rural cocaine-producing land, and that accounts for Colombia's overall high murder rate."

Twenty six Colombians out of every 100,000 are murdered with firearms each year compared to the world average of three to four out of every 100,000, according to the United Nations.

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I can just imagine the look on Gomezman's face as he reads this, angrily banging his hand on his desk, accidentally smooshing his taco or burrito and getting that hot sauce all over his nice Wal-Mart jacket and tie, he he he.

HERE'S SIMON!!!!

goin_south says on Jan 4, 2007, 22:02:

okay, I feel forced to read this article. I hope it's not a long-assed article in espanol. You know, I think (if it is El Tiempo, or whatever) they should start writing/ensuring an english translation without us/me working for it. Why? Because I also am becoming one of those arrogant MF Gringos. Hey; it's 2007! The 'YEAR OF THE GRINGO'.

'tengo no mas compasion para su loro'

y, un mil gracias.

goin_south says on Jan 4, 2007, 22:39:

BOGOTA (Reuters) - Cities in Colombia.......have become as safe as those in the United States, according to a poll by a Bogota think tank.
(according to a THINK TANK IN BOGOTA??? Common, now. Bias, bias, bias. Right Gomezman5?)

"The survey, held in Colombia's six biggest cities, also showed the Andean country compares well with Great Britain, which registers 24 crime victims out of every 100 citizens."

(Oooooh, Kat1! You better stay your FMFA in Colombia!)

"The think tank said the poll is 95.5 percent reliable and more accurate than official figures as many crimes go unreported here."

AND, WHY DOES THE THINK TANK THINK THEY ARE SO MUCH MORE ACCURATE??? GIVE ME A 'DONGRINGO' BREAK! POR FAVOR!

"It did not take into account the thousands who are killed or displaced in the war every year, or the average three Colombians per day who step on land mines."

Oh? Why not? Insignificado? (The Think Tank is possibly a member of PBs!H) !

"Despite billions of dollars in U.S. aid...the guerrillas still rule wide swathes of countryside with an iron fist."

I think if you gave me maybe like only "2 Billion Dollars", (what? 17,000 to maybe 19,000 guerillas???)... with 2 FREAKIN BILLION DOLLARS!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I THINK I COULD TALK THOSE MODOFOQUES INTO SOME PEACE!!!!!!!!!! WHAT YOU THINK???

Does anyone here, really know how much 2 freakin billion dollars is??? Does Alvaro Uribe or anyone else out there really know how much a FREAKIN BILLION DOLLARS IS????? as compared to a million?

I don't think so. Because for 17,000 guys/gals... I guarantee! If you put 17,000 of us... ANY OF US!... TOGETHER AND HAD A BILLION DOLLARS TO SHARE...

we would succumb.......... por la paz.

No sense. No sense atoll.

Excuse me, but this article is pure Reuters BS.

Es el año, 2007: El año del gringo

y, un mil gracias.

goin_south says on Jan 4, 2007, 22:40:

Simon, (G5 would be proud, but who really cares?) Simon, in case you didn't notice; I strongly disagree.

Es el año, 2007: El año del gringo

y, un mil gracias.

goin_south says on Jan 4, 2007, 22:46:

Just,.... ONly..... a Mere .... 2 Billion Dollars ... Divided by 17,000 units, is over 100,000 Dollars a peace. :)
$100,000 for most any one average person in Colombia is like... MEGA RETIREMENT!!! That is like about $250,000 here in the states.

NEVER mind... they are still lighting the fireworks here, in La.

Es el año, 2007: El año del gringo

y, un mil gracias.

goin_south says on Jan 4, 2007, 22:50:

So, maybe by 'several Billion dollars' in the article... Let's Assume they might be talking about : $5,000,000,000.
Divided by 17,000 Aliens... is just under $300,000.00 per alien.
Like about $700,000 or more per alien, in Columbia.

Elmo! Can we go talk to these Modofoques??? WTF are our diplomats talking about with these guys???

BTW, Elmo??? Donde esta? en Barranquilla?

Lo siento, pero....

Es el año, 2007: El año del gringo

y, un mil gracias.

goin_south says on Jan 4, 2007, 23:49:

ruf... "the cocaine trade GROSSES 80 Billion per year. I DON'T think that means that 80 Million moves into the hands of the Farc. I think that means there are one hell of alot of other people in on that 80 Million dollars.

Es el año, 2007: El año del gringo

y, un mil gracias.

aztec says on Jan 5, 2007, 05:50:

DonGringo it is the... ...extortion that no one seems to have an answer for. Quality of life in Colombia (or at least in the major cities) could be considerably improved with a solution to this problem.

It is like the silent killer high blood pressure. You don't know you have the problem until it is too late. And to make matters worse there is nowhere to go for assistance.

I might add the backpacker or the person with no assets have nothing to worry about. In short this threat prevents Colombians who have accumulated resources of any amount to have second thoughts before returning to Colombia.

gringolondinense says on Jan 5, 2007, 07:24:

this article is hilarious!!! "Colombians have developed sophisticated techniques of survival, such as refusing to give out personal information"

HAHAHHA VERY SOPHISITCATED!!

"the Andean country compares well with Great Britain"

OH YER I FEAR FOR MY LIFE WALKING AROUND LONDON!

juancegomez says on Jan 5, 2007, 08:03:

The article is not identical to the survey DG, the survey clearly has limitations, both intrinsic and external, including those that depend solely on the interpretation and presentation given to it by a member of the international news media. If we actually read the survey itself, I'd believe that it would be possible to properly address at least some of the methodological issues that you've raised, several of which are no doubt legitimate concerns.

But only focusing on what a single news article states to be the case is hardly something that amounts to a serious analysis of the survey, don't you think? For instance, instead of accusing the think tank of not revealing its sources, perhaps one should actually first accuse the reporter for doing a sloppy job. The survey itself probably does mention its sources in some way or another.

Even if, again, some of your concerns are probably very valid and warranted, that doesn't mean that a news article on the survey has the same value (or lack of it) as the survey itself. I believe that it's available online on the think tank's website, for those concerned about it.

If you ask me, I'd say that the survey may be useful as a representative indicator of ***perceptions*** in the six cities surveyed and among those sectors which took part in it, if the same metholodogy is applied over a certain amount of time in several occasions. However, I do not believe that it's serious to compare the results of this survey to those of others done elsewhere, or to pretend that it's a complete representation of the situation throughout the entire country. So I'm not giving an absolute value to the survey's results, but rather a relative one, so to speak.

It's also worth noting that, for a think tank that DG considers to be a "propaganda machine", some of their work has been cited by people that nobody in their right mind would consider to be pro-Uribe loyalists. Not to mention that it has also criticized some government policies that Uribe has defended. They are obviously pro-government in their outlook, and even pro-Uribe in several respects, but they are hardly monolothic propagandists making stuff up out of thin air or something akin to that.

As for Plan Colombia, we come back to the same discussion. Parts of it indeed have contributed to improving security but again, DG, it's far from a "miracle bullet". For instance, it's still not a Plan dedicated entirely or even mainly to security, much less to security in the cities. Plan Colombia has indeed provided equipment and resources that have been useful for putting boots on the ground, as you put it, but it's hardly the main factor behind the entire process. Even if we added up the total cost of Plan Colombia thus far and pretended that it's all been directly useful securitywise, that figure is dwarfed by Colombia's own accumulated defense spending thus far. Which, for the record, means that Plan Colombia isn't, by any means, the main source of resources for Colombia's armed forces. It's an useful element, very useful even, but it's also brought it's own complications (for instance, one could argue that the fumigations that are part of this plan and of the general Prohibitionist strategy have negatively affected security and counterinsurgency).

aztec says on Jan 5, 2007, 08:23:

juancegomez what % of the budget... ...is devoted to defense?

juancegomez says on Jan 5, 2007, 08:57:

About 9%-10% of the budget in recent years Which is apparently the highest, in terms of its share of the GDP, in Latin America right now.

See here for the 2006 and/or 2007 numbers:

http://www.armada.mil.co/index.php?idcategoria=89288

http://www.antimilitaristas.org/article.php3?id_article=2547

http://www.minhacienda.gov.co/portal/page?_pageid=37,118689&_dad=portal30&_schema=PORTAL30

http://colombia.indymedia.org/news/2006/10/51347.php

Mr. Hollywood says on Jan 5, 2007, 08:59:

Someone please translate If I read this correctly the survey compared the perceptions of COLOMBIANS in Colombia to COLOMBIANS in the US, right?

And most Colombians in the US live in Miami, with a lesser number in NYC and only very small numbers in other cities.

So what we're talking about is the perceptions/experiences of people living in Miami to people in Bogota.

Given those limitations, the result doesn't sound totally far-fetched, but I don't really see much value in the data.

goin_south says on Jan 6, 2007, 01:09:

Rufus, how does ANYONE really know WHO get How Much of that ESTIMATED 80 Billion dollars? All of these numbers are 'guessing' statistics, as well. (If not, then tell me, who's tracking the numbers and how?) I doubt that many of the 17,000 or 19,000 ESTIMATED FARC boys and girls are getting much of any of that.) If so, I believe there would be droves of young men, and a few more women also, running to sign up! It's like anything else; a few people somewhere are getting all the dough, I would imagine.

Es el año, 2007: El año del gringo

y, un mil gracias.

aztec says on Jan 6, 2007, 06:09:

In keeping with the thread "Is Colombia Safe"... ...Does anyone have any information on the attack on the former mayor of Bogotá in Cartagena this week?

goin_south says on Jan 6, 2007, 14:34:

I wouldn't worry about a.b. just yet... A guy has to dip below the scope every now & then.

Es el año, 2007: El año del gringo

y, un mil gracias.

Desideria (Moderator) says on Jan 6, 2007, 14:40:

Rufus, Arthur Brode can't have been missing for more than 4 hours 48 minutes; that's the last time he posted.

Cheers,
Desi

"Soy el que siempreanda de noche en el vecindario, sé cuando ladra el perro, sé cuando canta el gallo sé cuando estan dormidos los muchachos de mi barrio..." (From the joropo "El pajarillo")

"I have opinions of my own, strong opinions, but I don't always agree with them."-President George W. Bush

goin_south says on Jan 6, 2007, 15:56:

jejeee.... yeah. so, WHO IS IT THAT IS REALLY MISSING??? lol

Es el año, 2007: El año del gringo

y, un mil gracias.

goin_south says on Jan 6, 2007, 15:56:

but,then again... he could be 'missing' and still be posting.

Es el año, 2007: El año del gringo

y, un mil gracias.

goin_south says on Jan 6, 2007, 23:13:

that is my point, rufus.. If you could set down each of the 17,000 to 19,000 footsoldiers, and give them their part of the 2 Billion Dolares, then... who would be left to fight the war? I don't think, too many. (Each of those guys/gals would have thought they just died and went to the USA...lol) (Heaven? no.)

Es el año, 2007: El año del gringo

y, un mil gracias.

goin_south says on Jan 6, 2007, 23:43:

I no, it ain't gonna happen... I only said....'if'... but, I'm wondering bout the calculators in Canada... mine says: $117,000 per. I believe they would GO FOR IT.

Es el año, 2007: El año del gringo

y, un mil gracias.

Sr Tertius says on Jan 7, 2007, 20:26:

The actual survey http://www.seguridadydemocracia.org/docs/pdf/seguridadUrbana/encuestaCriminalidadVictimizaciónCompleta.pdf

I think that GIB's, I mean, DonGringo's thorough analysis pretty much covers all the bases... yeah, right!! Anyway, the think tank is Seguridad y Democracia, which has been losing credibility lately because its director (Alfredo Rangel, the only source for analysis of the Colombian conflict in the English-speaking media) appears to be taking sides with the Uribe administration (no, it's not a coincidence).

The study looks very good on paper, although the survey firm, Asesores y Consultores en Mercadeo Ltda. is not one of the reputable large firms that usually take these studies... that makes me a bit suspicious. There are a few periodic surveys that could corroborate the results; without them, I'd be somewhat skeptical.

The report in English is, of course, a piece of shit. Inarticulate and factually wrong. Starting with this beauty: "Urban crime has fallen as part of President Alvaro Uribe's popular crackdown on Marxist rebels..." oh, brother...

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

poco says on Jan 7, 2007, 20:37:

You of all people should KNOW "Urban crime has fallen as part of President Alvaro Uribe's popular crackdown on Marxist rebels..." oh, brother...

It's the THOUGHT along with the proper spin that counts.

"Violence is the first refuge of the incompetent" - Isaac Asimov

juancegomez says on Jan 8, 2007, 08:38:

Sr Tertius Thanks for linking to it. DG/GIB did make several good points, which I partially share, but I still insist that it would be better to make such an analysis based on the survey itself and not on a poorly presented summary.

As for Alfredo Rangel, he's indeed an Uribista and does get quoted a lot in the English-speaking media, but he's not quite the only source for analysis on the conflict. Other analysts are also cited, even if less consistently, which is something that could definitely be improved. And in spite of Mr. Rangel's undeniable Uribism, which has never been a secret, the guy is hardly a mindless drone either (he's been very critical of Plan Patriota, among other things).

That aside, Seguridad y Democracia has also supported and/or published some interesting books on paramilitarism lately, including Gustavo Duncan's "Los Señores de la Guerra. De paramilitares, mafiosos y autodefensas en Colombia". As the title implies, it is hardly unrestricted "cheerleading", to put it lightly. There's an excerpt here:

http://www.semana.com/wf_InfoArticulo.aspx?IdArt=98872

In the end though, I really don't think that political positions necessarily override the credibility of all research / academic work. If that were the case, then what would be the credibility of the CINEP, for example? I respect their work, a lot, but their political inclinations are not exactly unknown either (and I consider them to be at least partially justifiable too, given the crimes that the state has indeed allowed or collaborated with). That doesn't mean that political positions are irrelevant, no, just that they're not everything either. Overly politicized statements, of course, are of little worth.

As for the spin, well yeah...it's unfortunately quite rare for most foreign journalists to actually name all the factors responsible for the drop in urban crime in several places (some of which have zero to do with Uribe, such as the work of local administrations, as Sr Tertius and others have mentioned before).

Sr Tertius says on Jan 10, 2007, 15:01:

Is that another bet? Either stand by your word or get some help: http://www.gamblersanonymous.org/

Is there a chapter in Bogota? I wonder...

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

Wastelandlive says on Jan 10, 2007, 16:42:

Hey DonGringo Are you really GIB?

Wasteland

poco says on Jan 10, 2007, 19:20:

Can't get away with Jack !!! work of local administrations

You just won't believe how nice things are in the small towns. It is something like small towns in the U.S.

Hard to hide your bad habits in a small town. So, if you are a pervert or deviate or a druggie or a thief or some other unsavory character then it is best you ply your trade where you can be anonymous.

I really don’t think you can “show up� w/o someone noticing that you are a stranger. You WILL get questioned. Trust me on this, no one in a small town wants that thieving riff-raff from the neighboring town screwing up their tranquility.

This is another picture of my Helper during the day time phase of my erection.



Checkout the crappy looking wall I'm having made,, it looks really bad, almost like it was around for YEARS and Years and while it was around someone beat it with a ball peen hammer,, beat it, beat it, beat it some more that's what I told the guys and it was really great work !!!!

"Violence is the first refuge of the incompetent" - Isaac Asimov

goin_south says on Jan 10, 2007, 21:43:

http://www.gamblersanonymous.org/ Is there a chapter in Bogota? I wonder...

it's probably located in the CAPITAL BUILDING, right next to Uncle Uribe's office.

y, un mil gracias.

goin_south says on Jan 10, 2007, 21:44:

You're right Rubito Even medium sized towns....can get way too small in a hurry!

Es el año, 2007: El año del gringo

y, un mil gracias.