Invest in Colombia

ColombianoX says on Jan 5, 2005, 16:35:

"Would you believe that Colombian common stock, denominated in pesos, was one of the best investments in the entire world in 2004?"

Yes, I do believe it! Time to buy some of that stock!

CX

ColombianoX 'Defensor de la Colombianidad'

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untreated says on Jan 5, 2005, 17:03:

Web site correction http://www.corfinsura.com
English version button upper right hand corner

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jack73534 says on Jan 5, 2005, 19:25:

sounds interesting , do you know any good stock brokers in Medellin , I might be coming down there in a few months. If I decided to live there I would very much like to invest in columbia,s future. If I didn,t decide to live there it would give me a reason to visit often.

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viewpoint says on Jan 6, 2005, 09:40:

Tinto Good post I hope they listen to you !!!

First of all to open an account in a Colombian brokerage firm you are going to need your Colombian cedula just like a bank account. Further, your are playing another mans game in another mans country. If your source of funds is foreign currency you are buying the peso (to pay for the trades) at a very unfavorable rate currently. Your investment is not just subject to the fluctuation of the Colombian stock market but also the Colombian peso.

Bolsa y Renta is a good medimum sized firm in Medellin that has been in business a long time (two generations). I personally know these people to be honest and straight forward but I would think that you would soon part with your money playing this kind of game.

Investing in Colombia is much more risky than investing in a well regulated investment environment with a good legal system. I am going to stop here and not tell you some of the other risks that I have personally learned and witnessed in Colombia.

ColombianoX, the idea is to buy the stocks before they increase in value 80% as this increase in value is no guarantee that the increase will continue in the future.

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Mr. Hollywood says on Jan 6, 2005, 10:17:

a better way A better way to invest in Colombia might be to look for a specialized mutual fund focusing on emerging latin american markets. One that trades in the US. Let them do the heavy lifting in terms of currency exchange, brokerage transactions in Latin America, etc.

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Gomezman5 says on Jan 6, 2005, 10:26:

Viewpoint--like Tinto---well put !! You kind of took the words out of my "hand." But you as well as tinto are more knowledgable than myself.

I think what needs to be said here is that it's one thing to want to be patriotic or interested in seeing a "better" economy in Colombia , it's quite another thing to sacrifice hard earned Ameridan dollars in the name of patriotism, by investing your dollars in Colombia's market place and financial institutions, knowing that your investment would be a very risky one.

I think your point about the importance of investing in a "well regulated investment enviornment with a good legal system" about says it all.

We can all continue to help Colombia and it's economy indirectly by our visits, property invetsment, and just sending money to our friends and families.

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untreated says on Jan 6, 2005, 11:12:

Best investment opportunity in the entire world in 2004 WAS in fact investing in the Colombian Stock Exchange; not that 2005 will guarantee another 100% increase, but why not?

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viewpoint says on Jan 6, 2005, 11:29:

Untreated Yes and the whole world was investing everything they owned into the HIGH TECH USA stockmarket in 1999 until it collapsed in early 2000. Very few people even are daring enough to visit Colombia let alone invest there so I don't know where you jump to the conclusion the whole world is investing there.

There is a burial ground for foreign and Colombian institutional investors and suppliers who lost multi-millions in Colombia during the recent years lending, investing, and providing credit to power generation projects, utility companies, telecoms, textile companies just to name a few. Some of these companies were owned by the Colombian government and munipalities, they stiffed their creditors for hundreds of millions. You know little of the risk of investing in emerging markets. Right now the emerging markets are overbought, way too high and subject to a correction. This time the Latin american countries have better balance sheets and fundamentals so we might not see the early eighties repeat itself.

The two best investments I see know is buying a home in Colombia if you live there and shorting the Colombian peso at 2300 or lower vs. US dollar. Where were you when the Ecuador sucre went from 12.5 to 40,000 per US dollar before settling in at 30,000 to the US dollar after the government pegged it there and replaced it with US dollars. Then the government defaulted on all its global debt while paying its internal debt. Look at the wasteland of defaulted soverign debt in ARG while the government is offering about .25-.30 cents on the dollar to restucture it. All of that is nothing when compared to the massive defaults in Latin America during the early eighties. Colombia was one of only two countries that didn't default in the early eighties and the other was Chile who is the best rated credit in all of Latin america.

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Tinto (Moderator) (Trustee board) says on Jan 6, 2005, 11:35:

Good point about suppliers to Colombia There was a story yesterday about Telecom borrowing about $160 million to pay off a portion of an $800 million USD legal judgement. I think they promised their European partners (carriers or equipment suppliers, I cannot remember which) some kind of revenue sharing and the revenue never materialized.

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viewpoint says on Jan 6, 2005, 11:46:

Tinto Yes Telecom was (and still is) owned by the Colombian government. When Telecom got into financial trouble a few years back the central government closed the company formed a new one and put all the valuable operating assets into the new company leaving all of the debt and creditors in the old company. The redeeming fact was they pledged the future operating profits of the new company to pay the debts of the old company. People would go to jail for something like this in the USA or Europe. Even operating with a monopoly the central government was incapable of operating Telecom at a profit.

This is just one reason they don't want VOIP commercially deployed in Colombia.

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Lionheart says on Jan 6, 2005, 11:47:

hi-tech shares I have several large boxes of shares now being used as toilet paper, can I invest them?

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viewpoint says on Jan 6, 2005, 11:50:

Lionheart Save them as toilet paper as they are more valuable in that form !!!!

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untreated says on Nov 25, 2005, 07:34:

Update: 2005 better than 2004 IGBC= Colombian Stock Exchange Index:
January 4, 2005=4339, November 25, 2005=8595 UP 98%

Colombian peso TRM=Official Exchange Rate vs US Dollar
January 4, 2005=2338, November 25, 2005= 2277 UP 2%

So, you were saying?

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aztec says on Nov 28, 2005, 06:53:

untreated just... determined to avoid any advice. Maybe he will escape with his money.

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juanalejo says on Nov 28, 2005, 08:10:

Maybe some of us made some very good money this year, and maybe some of you guys did not.

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untreated says on Jan 20, 2006, 13:20:

Keeps going up! IGBC is again up over 25 percent since my last post two months ago!
So, you were saying?

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Brians says on Jan 21, 2006, 07:03:

Untreated listen too the advice I agree with you about the Colombian Market. However there is substantial risk. I manage $200,000,0000 in client asstes for a large Investment House. I have been for over 15 years. I have seen so many trends and this one is no different. The fact is I have Institutional International managers in our office every week. The economies of the South Americas are greatly benefiting from China. They are commodity export based economies andChina is in great need of their resources. However not one of the managers I have met have mu if any investment in Colombia. Maybe a token holding of Banco Colomia. There is no comfort with the country. I also believe that Colombia is a great investment opportunity because of the natural resources and also an educated workforce and ideally located near the USA. The problems are always going to be poltical. Until if ever there is view that the country is stabile this will not change. If you look at the numbers this market and currency will have huge swings as the amounts of money a realativily small. Much like buying a micro cap stock that trades no volume. Big swings on small amounts of money. The other economies of Brazil etc are really the areas International Money feel comfortable. Remember this is all supply and demand. History has shown that developing economies have had difficulty managing growth and this is my concern. China believe it or not has built to over capacity. This is not en argument. China is more dependent on the USA than the reverse. Any slow down in US growth is going to hurt them dramatically. Longer term things look great but managing growth in China is also a concern. My prediction is that we se a majr correction in these developing economies. When? I see China holding 2008 Olympics. They will not want anything to occur until after then. They are the largest investor of US Treasuries and have therefore are finacing the US growth and thus theirs. This will have to slow or reverse but not till 2008. Where does Colombia fall in all of this? Really not a direct impact but a guilty by association factor will occur. There also could be a lot more upside short term. However even if we see another 25% and then a 50% decrase you are behind %. I have been looking to buy a second home in Medellin. I will choose to do so without regard to the currency or economy. I view this as my Colombian investment and do not plan to sell. I only plan to do this after the elections to at least see if some currency weakness occurs then. However I would never recommend clients to invest in Coombia until the world's view of the country change. This will take years but they are on the right path. Hopefully things will continue but that remains to be seen. As for your comment that the world is investing that is a huge overstatement this is not a developed country. If you have the disposable income then do it. I would not speculate in Colombia yet. Too much risk with prices whee they are at. Would you go on a shopping spree if the store they said "We are doubling price"? Probably not and this is what has happened recently. I however have the greatest hope that Colombia continues it's path as it is truelly great country with great potential.

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miamimike says on Jan 21, 2006, 11:36:

The Ground Rules Can Change and History bears this OUT! No Guarentee in Col they cannot! I cite this this country, Mexico, as an example due to its closer proximity to the US and a much stronger relation due to sheer volume of business, US Visitors, US Maquilladoras based in Mexico, ect. El Bolso de Mexico, then Much larger, Huge., then the thinly traded Col Market. In the mid to late 80s, many US and Canadian Residents who resided(and still do) in Guadalajara, Mexico were investing USD and CD(canadian dollars)in Mexico's Short term Cert's of Deposits. The Bank's Intrest Rates were upwards of 20% even close to 35% at various times. You had the OPTION of taking your money out, at that time, in Dollars or Pesos and some who lived there, took peso withdrwals monthly to pay for their monthly living expenses. These Expats were doing really well with that rate of Interest UNTIL then President Salinas de Gotori changed the investing rules to only Peso Withdrawals. OVERNIGHT!!! Many really got stung after closing their accounts when they lost second bundles as their original Dollar accounts had to be withdrawn in Pesos. Many lost 20-30% Overnight and to some, it was a huge loss! BTW, at this time, Cemento de Mexico, Telefono de Mexico stocks were going crazy also and many took a cold bath on these investments also. One can see certain similaraties between Mexico(late 80s) and today's investment climate in Col. Look at what Tinto, Viewpoint Gomezman advised-they are on the money! Especially what ViewPoint wrote on Argentina and All the Foreign Investors who just lost Millions! Man was that a Kick in the Ass! BTW, the Salinas Brothers(prez and his brother Raul) were eventually run out of mexico for Bank and Stock Fraud; beleive it or not-these two Crooks stole so much $$$, Mexican Investigators TODAY are STILL looking in Swiss and other Foreign Banks, precious metals(gold bullion) for the Money, 20 years later.Caveat Emptor, give me ONE Documented, Verifiable reason that what happened in Mexico could not occur in Colombia.I remember before going to Guadalajara at that time(1989) and I had 10K(usd) to invest and it was here or in Mexico. I put my money in the US Based newly created German Fund(traded publicly)on the NYSE) instead and who knew at the time, but two weeks later the "Wall" came down(very exuberant and positive time in east and west germany) and my German Fund, which I purchased for $11/share in the US, escalated to $28(like 10 days later) at which time I sold and took my profits. BTW, this was an educated Gamble on the German Fund as something 70% of the Fund's money was invested in the well respected Deutsche(sp) Bank. Wish all my other stocks went like this one! LOL Look for a good US based foreign mutual fund as Tinto wrote, good advice.

Avatar Legend: Bush "If any of you Reporters are wondering, it was a Size 10"

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untreated says on Jan 27, 2006, 06:43:

IGBC up 22% in January 2006

IGBC January 2, 2006: 9255
IGBC January 27, 2006: 11336

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juanalejo says on Jan 27, 2006, 07:15:

Miamimike One reason would have to do with history, Mexico and Argentina have a history of defaults, Colombia does not. Mexico and Argentina have had a series of economic downturns in recent history, Colombia has had a 1 year recession (1999) within the only economic downturn in Colombian history sice the great depression.

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poco says on Jan 27, 2006, 07:48:

The Colombian market matches todays general conditions Over the last 3 years I’ve seen a huge change in the job and building market. I travel much of Valle Cauca and the new stores with large numbers of people spending money verifies the improvement.

Wish I was invested in the Colombian Index (wish I’d bought Microsoft also) but I’m getting too old for speculation or long term capital gains. I've also seen these things disappear overnight.

CIB is up another 1 %,, up 8% for the month of January.

Another company to watch in Colombia is Movistar cellular. I made a note,, the parent company appears to be Telefonica (sp?). When I get back into states need to do some research, their offices are FULL,, standing room only,, I kid you not…standing room only,,,



Cell Phones are an addiction in Colombia,, got to believe all of latin American is the same. AMX has doubled in the last 12 months.

I see small kids with cell phones,, some toys,, some are “broken” but the ring tones can be accessed,, along with games.

Amazing,,, anyone with info on Telefonica post it,, I can’t really do serious research on a 50K line but I'll be back in U.S. next month.

"When you men get home and face an anti-war protester, look him in the eyes and shake his hand. Then, wink at his girlfriend, because she knows she's dating a pussy." Quote - General Tommy Franks

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poco says on Jan 27, 2006, 09:05:

Thought so,, Nothing is easy,,, thanks for the information. Gives me a start.

The cell phone subscriber sales are reminiscent of AOL plastering the U.S. with CD’s.

"When you men get home and face an anti-war protester, look him in the eyes and shake his hand. Then, wink at his girlfriend, because she knows she's dating a pussy." Quote - General Tommy Franks

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MedellinViking says on Jan 30, 2006, 14:47:

I have a little money in these 2 funds I have put away a bit into "Proteccion, Pensiones y Cesantias" funds.
Specifically the:
Renta Fija Pesos Alta Liquidez
Renta Fija Largo Plaza

See the 10 year performance at:
http://www.proteccion.com.co/servlet/co.com.pragma.documenta.servlet.seccion.MostrarSeccion?seccion=/HOME/

Click on "Valor de Unidad" in the yellow sidebar
Then in the pop-up window choose the fund and the time freame you would like to view

Of special note to the skeptical, look at the 10 year data! I still keep my main money in a handful of Vanguard and Fidelity funds but getting the monthly report from Proteccion slid under my front door brings a smile to my face.

Live your fantasies because life is short and from all I've seen death is really, really long....

Live your fantasies because life is short and from all I've seen death is really, really long....

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