In Venezuela, Faith in Chavez Starts to Wane

Not all countries are successfully able to throw off the shackles of dictatorship—but all dictatorships do collapse, in one form or another. There can be no other result from the irrationality, chaos, and paranoia of a regime that rules by force.

Hugo Chavez's rule in Venezuela is currently going through that process, as the country experiences runaway inflation and shortages of food and other vital products, despite huge oil reserves and high oil prices—while Chavez dreams up crazy theories of foreign conspiracies.

The Washington Post's Jackson Diehl speculates that this could mean the eventual end of Chavez's rule, especially if the political opposition wins upcoming local elections, while the New York Times reports, below, on the erosion of Venezuela's economy and the consequent erosion of Chavez's support.

"In Venezuela, Faith in Chavez Starts to Wane," Simon Romero, New York Times, February 9

These should be the best of times for Venezuela, blessed with the largest conventional oil reserves outside the Middle East and oil prices near record highs. But this country's economic and social problems have become so acute lately that President Hugo Chávez is facing an unusual onslaught of criticism, even from his own supporters, about his management of the country….
Outbreaks of dengue fever and Chagas disease have alarmed families living in the heart of this city. Fears of a devaluation of the new currency, called the "strong bolívar," are fueling capital flight. While the economy may grow 6 percent this year, lifted by high oil prices, production in oil fields controlled by the national oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela, has declined. Inflation soared by 3 percent in January, its highest monthly level in a decade.

In fact, some economists see a slow-burning economic unraveling playing out in a country flush with oil revenues….

"I cannot find beans, rice, coffee or milk," said Mirna de Campos, 56, a nurse's assistant who lives in the gritty district of Los Teques outside Caracas. "What there is to find is whiskey—lots of it."…

Mr. Chávez warned Monday that he would nationalize large food distributors caught hoarding groceries.

Pedro E. Piñate, an agricultural consultant in the city of Maracay, said: "We live in two countries, one inhabited by officials who think they can alter reality by sending soldiers to intimidate citizens. The other country is where the rest of us live in fear of being killed or kidnapped or of our businesses being seized."…

For other domestic problems, Mr. Chávez's approach has been equally erratic. After the recent outbreak of dengue fever, which reached into his cabinet to infect Culture Minister Francisco Sesto, the president did not shake up the public health system. Instead, he called for an investigation of claims that the disease may have been altered into a more virulent strain as part of an attack on Venezuela by unidentified enemies.

By esanch36 on Feb 13, 2008, 06:02 in Politics & the war.

gato-bandido says on Feb 13, 2008, 12:48:

http://www.world-check.com/articles/2008/02/13/iranian-missiles-are-po...

Iranian missiles are pointed at Colombia, increasing country risk
13 February 2008

Will there be a war in Latin America in 2008? Two years ago, I reported on the covert shipment of Iranian missiles* to Venezuela. These offensive weapons systems have now finally been assembled and installed inside Venezuelan territory, but their intended targets are not the United States; it is Colombia. Eyewitnesses report that the missiles are now located on the border with Colombia, are under the direct technical supervision of Iranian nationals, and are fully operational. The Venezuelan economy is headed towards total chaos, and the country's leadership, having recognised the FARC and ELN as sovereign national entities, appears committed to changing the present Colombian government into a socialist state. Will the Chavez government, believing that the United States is too preoccupied with the Middle East, and fearing that its runaway corruption will bring it down, fire these missiles into Colombia, in support of a final FARC offensive, seeking to topple the elected government? Whilst we hope that this does not come to pass, one must now prepare in case it does.

For the foregoing reasons, we recommend that country risk for Colombia should now be reassessed, to factor in the distinct possibility of an armed conflict with Venezuela this year. If offensive missile systems are deployed against Colombia, normal international communications, as well as power grids, will most likely be disabled, and financial institutions temporarily closed. International banks whose clients have substantial commerce with Colombia would be wise to create a contingency plan at this time, for letters of credit, international funds transfers, and routine payments would all be disrupted.

Note also that financial criminals, particularly transnational money launderers acting on behalf of narcotics trafficking organisations, might also seek to transfer funds, calculating that in the chaos of war, distracted and overworked compliance officers might not discover, or could overlook illicit transactions.

* Note that much of the equipment is of Russian manufacture, but since Iran supplied them to Venezuela, one can only regard them as of Iranian origin.

scotty says on Feb 13, 2008, 22:30:

I hope Chavez does not attack Colombia. I think maybe US missles in Colombia would be a great idea. I think maybe its time for a US Carrier to be sitting off the coast of Venezuela.

Get Rhythm, when you got the blues. Johnny Cash