Implications for Colombia if the US attacked Venezuela?

juancegomez says on Apr 3, 2006, 17:11:

... I personally don't believe that's a likely scenario.

For starters, the U.S. probably won't want to committ to a full scale invasion, because that would be far too predictable and require far too many resources.

Secondly, any invasion would probably be more surgical than massive. A relatively small combined air/sea operation looks far more likely than anything else right now, especially since the capital Caracas is a pretty much a coastal location and so are many of the energy/oil installations.

Btw, the FARC guerrillas have, in a semi-recent communique, already "preemptively" offered Chavez their "unconditional solidarity" anyways. Still, unless the conflict directly involves Colombia, which isn't a requirement, that may or may not mean anything (or even that much, if it does make a small difference).

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. says on Apr 4, 2006, 05:35:

Well.... Well, Just think for a moment who will be able to help US to invade Venezuela after all happened in IRAK, I think not so many countries will be able to help them. Secon, what could US say to raise a War on Venezuela? Weapon of mass destruction? that tale has been taken to the rubish bin after the Irak invation. Third, the majority of South American countries are anti-US, this will be not a surprice to have them with Venezuela. Colombian Guerillas are so dificult to fight, US know that, having a fight on Venezuela means having a fight on Colombian guerillas, not an easy thing to deal with. Iran is an anty US country which has a good relationship with venezuela, This could be one of the major factors US would think twice about an invation on Venezuela. As someone said, It can be the third world war. US invading Venezuela? i do not think so.

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Dolfi says on Apr 5, 2006, 00:49:

I think the main reason why the USA did not invade Venezuela ist that Chavez has been elected democratically. How would Bush declare to anyone why he tries to put a president out of power who has been elected by his people with an overwehleming majority?

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NewBoy says on Apr 5, 2006, 05:22:

Invading Ven. No need to invade, they could do regime change there easy enough with the help of the Venezualian middle class and military, they would only need a few US citiziens and key points to do this.

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. says on Apr 5, 2006, 05:43:

Lets invade US! as everyone knows, George Bush was re-ellected using dodgy voting and descriminating the black population votes. I hope the Bush regime will end soon.

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Dolfi says on Apr 5, 2006, 06:44:

NewBoy, why should the USA want to change the regime of a president who has been elected by a braod majority of his people?

By the way, hasn´t that been tried once in 2002 and failed?

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Mr. Hollywood says on Apr 5, 2006, 10:27:

Might as well talk about the implications of Brazil invading Venezuela. It's not going to happen. Chavez likes to play up FEARS of this happening in order to strenghten his position domestically. But the geopolitics of oil are a long-term game. So Chavez will be a bug on the windscreen of history by his own doing long before the US steps in.

Anyone been to Caracas lately? The S. American country with the largest, richest oil reserves is literally falling apart. Chavez may build a few clinics or housing developments for the very poor (which I applaud) but he's not INVESTING in his own country in terms of infrastructure, security, education, etc. In most oil rich countries you could blame this on the rapacious multi-national oil companies but the oil in Venezuela is state controlled.

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vladimiro says on Apr 5, 2006, 23:02:

Ven. At the bottom of the first link you can see photos of recently built tunnels, train stations, bridges, and light rail cars. The second link has pictures of newly built homes for the poor.

http://oilwars.blogspot.com/

http://oilwars.blogspot.com/2005/12/public-housing-venezuelan-style.html

Photos of MERCAL discount markets in poor neighborhoods of Venezuela

http://oilwars.blogspot.com/2005/12/mercal-in-el-valle.html

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. says on Apr 6, 2006, 05:38:

Dolfi Yes, right!

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lfflorez says on Apr 6, 2006, 07:37:

paranoia fisrstable STOP THE PARANOIA
concerning venezuela
venezuela is just more radical into the new social-democratact south american continent
and colombia is not too far away from that new south american reality of having a tendency into a new moderated socialism which is good for the region and for the world... but she (colombia) is getting there in their own way...
per example take all of our poverty in SA
that means that hopefully that new political tendency will help
us goverment is just watching us from above and with DESCONFIANZA
which mean that if things go well here concerning their idea of democracy, they dont mind is SA becomes social democratic... take a look at this...... venezuela sells 75% of his oil to the US... it that mean anything to you?... to me that chavez is smart and knows that stoping the fluid to the north means invation... but the us knows that the flake of another attack iraq style wont work that well specially in their internal popularity and less in our own american continent... so........what we got..nada..so.stop paranoia and let the SA continent develop into their new DESPERTAR and stop creating fears with yanqui seal and do what they did in chile many years ago... allende was a visionary.... and after the years we see that anyway SA goes that way...... take your yanki ideas wich are mostly fomented and base in FEAR FEAR FEAR feed up by a goverment not just full of fears but with lot of intere$ in their suporting a bunch of american sheeps that are thirsty for oil and money and they need to get it from where ever it comes at no matter what price...be realistic and inform the us citizens that all they have is what they really have at home and stop the dream of playing the cop of the world and the empire of the new roman style... later man!

Visit us at HOSTEL MOCHILEROS CALI COLOMBIA at http://hostelmochileros.googlepages.com/home info: hostelmochileros@gmail.com

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Mr. Hollywood says on Apr 6, 2006, 11:06:

Imaginary Trains Vladmiro, I'm glad to see that they're actually building something with the oil wealth in Ven. Now if they could just get the street lights to work and fill the potholes.

Wonder who's companies have the construction contracts for those public works projects?

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Wastelandlive says on Apr 7, 2006, 14:52:

Hi Vladmiro That was a telling link. I wonder who you could be, the usual?

Nice to have you on board! **DELETED**

Wasteland

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aztec says on Apr 8, 2006, 08:00:

"Lets invade US" juanpbadillo, Too late! U.S. already invaded by Mexico.

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vladimiro says on Apr 8, 2006, 17:45:

You never know The US attack on Fallujah was a direct response to the public killing and mutilation of those defense contractors - it was not based on strategic planning. Bush ordered the attack on Fallujah for immotional not rational reasons, so the US leader can be goaded into making rash decisions.

US military manuevers near Venezuela might be a response to Chavez calling Bush a donkey the other day :)

"Tu has metido conmigo pajarito! Para decirte lo en mi mal ingles: you are a donkey, Mr. Danger, you are donkey, Mr. Bush. Tu eres un cobarde, sabes, porque no te vas a Iraq a comandar las fuezas de tu pais....Come Here Mr. Danger, cobarde assisino, eres un borracho Mr. Danger"

http://www.urru.org/VideoVTV/CHAVEZHITBUSH.wmv

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Sr Tertius says on Apr 9, 2006, 18:04:

Dumb questions And what if North Korea invades Colombia? Would the US help? And... WHO would they help. What if Germany starts WW3? What if...?

C'mon! PBH is reaching new lows. Senior political analyst GIB has taken over. Have fun.

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

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goosekirk says on Apr 14, 2006, 02:06:

Bound to happen Egging the ambassador's car was cute, but crazy. Chavez is sticking his head in the lion's mouth. Anybody remember Panama? Noriega was somehow involved in narcotics and he rigged an election. The US stepped up provocations of the Panamanian military until an 'incident' occurred (someone got shot) that allowed them to justify invading.

(and by the way, the 'provocations' were described to me by a couple of US soldiers who were there and took part)

Noriega kicked out the DEA and is widely believed to be permissive and possibly complicit in drug trafficking and is referred to by US officials in a very negative light as to the legitimacy of his presidency. Haven't they already started calling him a dictator? He's also believed to assist the terrorists in Colombia, and the US is nothing if not proactive in the war on terror.

The USS George Washington cruise is very significant, in that this is the first time a major naval exercise involving a carrier group has taken place off Venezuelan waters. This is the strongest message the US sends to a troublemaking country - it's a clear warning and a threat, as well as an opportunity to provoke mischief from Chavez. By testing the boundaries of Colombian airspace, the best thing the US could hope for is an overzealous Chavez ordering his pilots to confront US pilots engaging in an 'exercise' over international waters. It probably won't happen, but who knows.

The US has all the justifications they need, based on what they've used historically, and now all they need is one incident to use as the trigger excuse. Egging the ambassador is harmless in itself, but it's a slippery slope from here to some American getting killed, and then it's lights-out for Chavez.

It wouldn't be a full-scale invasion like Iraq. It'd be closer to Panama, only with the modern special forces, more surgical. No doubt, Washington already has the next Venezuelan leader already picked out. Such an invasion would be over relatively quickly and, using lessons from Iraq, the Venezuelan military would be quickly pacified - mostly bought off and reasoned with before the invasion, and any elements of the military that couldn't be bargained with would be quickly eliminated. Remember, these guys are still in play from the failed coup, so it's not like it'll take much. Native unrest and irregular forces would be put down by the complicit Venezuelan military. Colombia's guerrilla forces would be entirely inconsequential, only offering a feeble verbal threat before returning to their regular narcotrafficking, kidnapping and idiotic terror activities.

Colombia's role would probably be fairly minimal and unpublicized. If they can't provoke Chavez from the sea, and they probably can't, possibly an incident involving an American unit along the Colombian/Venezuelan border would work. I imagine something like a US Special Forces team helping track narco-terrorists fleeing into Venezuela gets fired on by Venezuelan border guards might do the trick. I thought I read the other day that Bush is pushing Congress to allow the US military to be more actively involved in Colombia, so that would fit. More likely, though, is something involving the diplomatic mission in Caracas, especially now that that train is already rolling.

Whatever happens, I don't see where an attack would do much for Colombia, except suddenly Venezuela would be much friendlier towards Colombia and less friendly to the FARC.

If you don't think this is not only possible, but in fact likely, you're not paying attention. You may have noticed this president isn't shy about using military force to solve a problem, and Venezuela is a very important problem for them that will get resolved in the next two years, one way or another.

Just my prediction...

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. says on Apr 14, 2006, 03:39:

May I call you goosekirk spielberg? your prediction is far from reality. Do you know why every time George Bush visit any European Country, never is well received by the citizens? I will give you a clue....Everyone hate him. Most of the people in the world (but the 51% of the USA population)really hate him and his hypocrite goverment. I am not with Hugo Chavez and I am not with George Bush.

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vladimiro says on Apr 15, 2006, 13:12:

BusinessWeek: Venezuela pays off public debt http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8GUNAEO5.htm?campaign_id=apn_home_down&chan=db

"Venezuela said Wednesday it has completed 75 percent of a planned buyback of US$3.9 billion (euro3.22 billion) in bonds as the world's fifth-largest oil exporter pushes ahead with efforts to reduce its public debt amid high oil prices.

That will save the country US$676 million (euro557.53 million) in debt servicing this year and slash its total outstanding debt by 10 percent to US$41.85 billion (euro34.52 billion), it said.

The government plans to use the money released from collateral held by the Brady bonds to continue funding President Hugo Chavez's popular social programs."

Meanwhile, public debt in the US continues to spiral out of control even as they critisize Venezuela for wasting the oil wealth:)

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goosekirk says on Apr 15, 2006, 14:41:

Keep watching the news... you'll see more stories about how Chavez is a dictator and how he supresses dissent in Venezuela. Just noticed one story where they implicated Chavez in the big cocaine bust in Mexico recently - Chavez and his terrorist pals, the FARC.

Dictator, drug dealer, terrorist-supporter... I can't believe anyone can't figure out how the US will justify removing him...

(note that I'm not attaching any judgment to these claims, and I don't really care how true or not they are... the interesting aspect here is simply how the US will go about getting rid of the guy)

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brunito says on Apr 15, 2006, 14:50:

might as well say that Canada's next on the list... since WE HAVE the world's largest oil reserve (even bigger then Venezuela and Saudi Arabia)

They're just not ready yet since wxtracting it from sand is still costly even though Shell, Exxon and ours friends George W, Dick and Condoleza find excuses every day to piss us off?

Ever heard of the softwood issue?
The potable water issue?
the St-Lawrence River issue?

And now the passport issue?

NAFTA was not about free trade for everyone in North America, it was just for our friends at the Bush / Cheney corporation (it was signed by his dad btw).

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Tinto (Moderator) says on Apr 15, 2006, 15:05:

It was signed by President Bush but the Congressional battle to get it ratified was led by Clinton. Congressional ratification makes all the difference -- Al Gore signed the Kyoto protocol on behalf of the United States but the Clinton administration never submitted it to Congress for ratification.



Back on topic, I would not be surprised if one or both of the recently signed trade agreements between the U.S. and Colombia and the U.S. and Peru got shot down by one of the national legislatures.

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BiNatBoy says on Apr 15, 2006, 15:41:

GoosK Speilberg is on the right track Lets look at this from a broader perspective...have you wondered why gas prices are what they are lately? give up? look at this:
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-venezoil12apr12,1,284058.story?coll=la-headlines-business

This is not a "love bush/hate bush" issue, this is about global economics. Are you tired of gas at $3USD/gl? its nothing, ask Pierre in Paris what he thinks of $5.50USD/gl or Sven in Olso at $6USD/gl.

Chavez is not making friends anywhere except with the leftist organizations of the world (HUH!? what a SURPRIZE!). So take that thought one step further:

Imagine "somebody" managed to "Neutralize" chavez...Here's the political math as I see it:

No Chavez= Castro with no friend + FARC with no-one to run to
Colombia's piplines stop getting blown up every other week....

Hmmmmm... It looks like a great return on investment: 3 problems solved with one stone...and Im not anybody's expert

Cant wait for the movie!

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