Hoping for some assistance

Peter (Moderator) (Trustee board) (Dev team) (☼Travelguide writer) says on Aug 22, 2007, 04:27:

scotty says on Aug 22, 2007, 04:37:

Plan Colombia actually started out as a decent idea but as many so called plans which is actually meddling it is not working to good and is becoming corrupt and yes i agree most people i meet that know anything about it are not much in support of it.
If you ask the average American what Plan Colombia is they will give a you a blank look then say wheres Colombia? Isnt that where Shakira is from.

Get Rhythm, when you got the blues. Johnny Cash

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juancegomez says on Aug 22, 2007, 13:37:

Just some general comments/opinions on my part, hopefully they can help you a bit. Others, of course, will have different ideas.

"Do you consider the demobilization of the AUC as a genuine factor for the success of the peace process?"

I consider the demobilization to be partial and with mixed success.

The better parts of it have contributed to reducing some violence in certain areas, which is definitely a good thing, but the peace process itself, especially judicially speaking, is still flooded with improvisation and confusion. It is too soon to tell what will be the final outcome, but it is clear that paramilitarism still exists even if in new guises (see the Black Eagles, for example).

"Do you agree that Plan Colombia should continue?"

No, in short. Not in anything remotely similar to its current form, because most of it has been unsuccessful at fighting a quite useless war on drugs by applying already existing policies, which was what the Plan was originally designed to accomplish (and continues to be its structural flaw).

Some components of it have had other, somewhat more respectable uses in matters with little to no direct relation to the drug war itself, but as far as I'm concerned the entire Plan would need to be heavily revised, if it is to continue. If not, just do away with the current Plan and find other alternatives.

"If it won’t, does Colombia has enough capability to push through, in accordance with the DSP (Pres. Uribe’s 10-year program) to exterminate the guerillas?"

Depends. The overwhelming majority of Colombia's yearly defense budget remains self-financed (look up the figures). A reduction of Plan Colombia funds (and/or, more relevantly, of other U.S. aid resources that are not really part of the Plan) would have a somewhat negative impact, that is clear, but it wouldn't necessarily change the structural picture too much.

And what picture is that, you ask? I believe that the issue of "exterminating the guerrillas" is very complicated and will probably take longer than any arbitrary time limit anyone sets (btw, I have not heard that there is a "10 year" limit officially associated with the DSP). Unless we are unexpectedly lucky, the war against the guerrillas not something that can be easily resolved (by force or by word). Not by Uribe or any other single individual in such a short span of time, regardless of foreign aid. Plan Colombia per ser hardly changes that, in my view.

"Where does the drug money flow to, I mean, is it being laundered?"

I think it's pretty fair to say it's being laundered both inside and outside Colombia, evidently, and thus it flows in several directions, affecting both legal and illegal sectors here (say, construction for instance) and elsewhere.

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juancegomez says on Aug 22, 2007, 13:39:

EDIT (I wish):

"Unless we are unexpectedly lucky, the war against the guerrillas [is] not something that can be easily resolved (by force or by word). Not by Uribe or any other single individual in such a short span of time, regardless of foreign aid. Plan Colombia per ser hardly changes that, in my view."

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bright_light7000 says on Aug 24, 2007, 22:05:

Thank you very much for the insights you’ve given me especially Sir juancegomez. I might have committed a mistake on the 10-year plan I previously stated. My confusion could have been brought by my theory that since Plan Colombia was the strategic foundation of Pres. Uribe’s DSP, the revised Plan Colombia of year 2000 had actually been implemented hand in hand with the DSP, so it will end in 2010, after the term of Pres. Uribe (if he won’t seek another 4 years because the revision in the Constitution is up to 2014 and his critics say that the revision was exclusively for him…wait and see?) Actually, this is not a far sight because Pres. Bush lauded Pres. Uribe’s achievements during his first term, and for Washington, Colombia is now ready to transition into Plan Colombia Phase 3. This phase might include the prevention/stoppage of cocaine spilling into all countries bordering Colombia especially Bolivia and Paraguay.

Even though we don’t like Plan Colombia here in PBH, hope we could do something against the wishes of the “almighties�.

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juancegomez says on Aug 25, 2007, 15:40:

Actually, that bit about 2014 seems weird as well. Uribe's second term, as a result of his re-election, will definitely end in 2010 unless other factors come into play (another constitutional reform, for example).

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