Good or bad?

podborski says on Jan 21, 2008, 07:28:

whether a fall in the dollar is good or bad depends on what business you are in, importer or exporter for example, just to keep it simple.

So it's hard to generalize.

I maintain the best possible situation for an economy is to have a strong currency (a la Switzerland) and STILL be able to compete in the manufacturing/export markets. Not easy, but some countries manage it.

If you let your currency fall too much you will have inflation (hurts those on fixed incomes), possible collapse in confidence (see the US dollar today), companies get lazy and inefficient (they count on a constantly falling currency to bail them out), and worst of all, you will end up selling your resources (land, companies) to foreignors cheap. All this is happening in the USA right now.

A rapidly rising currency is hard on manufacturers/exporters, but it does force them to become efficient (or die).

Anyone who thinks that problems in the US will not filter down to smaller economies is dreaming, although MAYBE china and India will pick up some of the slack in demand.

gabolicious says on Jan 21, 2008, 07:42:

"Anyone who thinks that problems in the US will not filter down to smaller economies is dreaming" pod... that is precisely what I am thinking...

thank you for your comments... My concern is because my people in Colombia are employees and most of them are applying for a US dollar card... and are starting to spend in US dollars not in colombian pesos... call me paranoid but I wouldn't do it... since (I think) Colombian economy is attached with US economy... and sooner or later we will have a "guayabo" (hangover)... a very bad one

Maybe we should not panic but I think I must be reasonable
Thank you for your comments..

"The new land of opportunities: Colombia!" ----- Mr Miguel_Clavo on PBH

miamimike says on Jan 21, 2008, 08:02:

Of course our situation here in the US will affect Colombia's Situation! What other country buys as much of Colombia Product(all) as the USA? If Consumers are antsy over what is happening here in the USA and pull in their Horns as far as buying, they simply won't buy as much of what is exported from Colombia into the USA. Lucky for Colombia, they aren't a big Tourist destination for Americans as if it was, that Industry would suffer also. Dollar repatriations to Colombia, as well as other Carribbean and South/Central American are falling and will probably nosedive even more as work Opportunities continue to evaporate. Huge Ripple effect.When the "US(largest consumer society, though China is close behind)Sneezes, the other world economies catch a cold" and this is happening today. It should be interesting what happens here in the USA on St Valentine's Day to the Cut Flower Rose Sales as we receive Huge Flower Shipments for sales here on that day. Not to mnetion with the Strong CP, Flowers from Col will cost much more in US Dollars,,,

"Wait a minute. What did you just say? You're predicting $4-a-gallon gas? ... That's interesting. I hadn't heard that." -- Feb. 28, 2008 --George W. Bush, Washington, D.C.,

gabolicious says on Jan 21, 2008, 08:08:

"When the "US Sneezes, the other world economies catch a cold" Miamimike...

No, we don't catch a cold we catch a pneumonia... if lucky..

=)

"The new land of opportunities: Colombia!" ----- Mr Miguel_Clavo on PBH

miamimike says on Jan 21, 2008, 08:13:

Here in Miami, a little north of Downtown on Biscayne Blvd, there are Hundreds of Luxury Condos coming on Line and many just completed but not sold. It will be a Good deal for Deep Pocketed Foreigners with Euros or buyers in other Currencies but even Realtors locally (miami) wonder if that will resolve the problem. Problem is, these are Luxury High End pricewise Condos so that leaves OUT most of Miami's Middle to lower class potential buyers. You need an income of close to $100,000 annually to buy into one of these with a Solid 20% downpayment with Great Credit these days! These lower-middle Folks could NOT live in these Condos if they were given to them for FREE as they never could afford the Taxes, Homeowner's Insurance or Monthly Condo Maintenence Fees(some over $800 alone monthly). Remember, Miami is the Largest Poorest Major City in the USA. Lots of Condo Developers are currently experiencing Major Anxiety Attacks presently, esp with that nosediving US stock market,,,

"Wait a minute. What did you just say? You're predicting $4-a-gallon gas? ... That's interesting. I hadn't heard that." -- Feb. 28, 2008 --George W. Bush, Washington, D.C.,

miamimike says on Jan 21, 2008, 08:19:

gabolicious says on Monday January 21st, 2008 8:08:

"When the "US Sneezes, the other world economies catch a cold" Miamimike...

No, we don't catch a cold we catch a pneumonia... if lucky..

=)
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LOL--That's probably a more Apt description these days! You know, even buyers on low end priced non essential items are pulling back. I watched a used 1999 low mileage Honda Helix Scooter for sale on eBay end yesterday. The seller told me he had 31 Watchers(thats a lot) yet when the Sale Ended, he didn't have a SINGLE bid and it was priced right, at a Buy Now of only $ 2300. In these days of sky high gas prices, that is simply amazing. a year ago, he would have had 15 Sold Bids on that particular Vehicle. People aren't in the Buying Mood,,,,

"Wait a minute. What did you just say? You're predicting $4-a-gallon gas? ... That's interesting. I hadn't heard that." -- Feb. 28, 2008 --George W. Bush, Washington, D.C.,

durito says on Jan 21, 2008, 08:23:

The idea that the US economy is now uncoupled from the rest of the world is pretty ridiculous in my opinion. Just check out the performance of stock exchanges around the world today for proof.

wendell13 says on Jan 21, 2008, 08:32:

Exactly......take a look at world stock markets today. The US is closed for MLK holiday but others are dropping 3, 4, 5 % today! A large bank in China is going to writedown bad debts because of the subprime crisis. The Chinese bank is down 6 % today.

The Colombian economy is relatively small and will be adversely affected by what happens in the US and elsewhere in the world

It will be interesting to see what happens with dollar in the next few days

gabolicious says on Jan 21, 2008, 08:46:

wow at least I don't feel that bad, cause I've been told that I am paranoid and that colombian economy will be harmless, I hope it were harmless...

thank you guys for your comments...

"The new land of opportunities: Colombia!" ----- Mr Miguel_Clavo on PBH

lpdiver says on Jan 21, 2008, 08:49:

Sheesh...the dollar is falling...the dollar is falling...the dollar is falling. Do they tell the story of chicken little here on pbh. The dollar has been fairly stable for some time now in Colombia. A one one hundredth of a percent has people panicking.

It means very little.

t

"cook some rice!"

manINred says on Jan 21, 2008, 09:12:

Well, skepticism in the US about the financial markets and fear of recession has led to world-wide stock market plunges today. Bad for your average investor.

Just look how it affects the UK: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7199552.stm

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/21012008/140/uk-shares-biggest-slide-four-year...

miamimike says on Jan 21, 2008, 09:27:

Wait 'til China floods the Colombian Market even more with cheap shoes, goods, textiles ect as they (china) have done here in the USA. All the while as their(China) Currency is frozen at an artifically low exchange.

"Wait a minute. What did you just say? You're predicting $4-a-gallon gas? ... That's interesting. I hadn't heard that." -- Feb. 28, 2008 --George W. Bush, Washington, D.C.,

lpdiver says on Jan 21, 2008, 09:41:

I wish the chinese would flood Colombia with some good dry cleaners and laundries!!

t

"cook some rice!"

Waterdawg says on Jan 21, 2008, 10:19:

Well folks , I am on my way to Chicago the first of Feb for a mens fashion expo .. I will tell you right now I am more than a little nervous about getting orders for this season.. And for those of you not in the Import/ Export Biz : a couple of points here or there make a huge difference when you go up against your competition form around the world ..

nueva york bombero says on Jan 21, 2008, 10:24:

The US allowing free trade with Colombia is a much bigger issue that will affect the economy of Colombia rather than simply the value of the dollar falling.
I see the economy of Colombia strengthening in the coming months.
The US will also, but not as quick.
I'm so convinced, I'm buying property in Colombia immediately!
Gracias, adios!

scotty says on Jan 21, 2008, 11:01:

gee, i thought i was the one that said" when the US sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold?"

Get Rhythm, when you got the blues. Johnny Cash

miamimike says on Jan 21, 2008, 11:08:

NY Bombero--its more of a Problem with China having their Currency Pegged at an artifically Fixed Low Rate reletive to the Floating Colombian Peso. Thats were the damage is done to the Colombian Job Market and local industries and ultimately to the Colombian wage earner. Hard for Colombia to compete(its not like hi tech savvy denmark or Finland) against Imports against a Competitor like China when you have one hand tied behind your back, currency exchange rate wise. Not to mention China has been making all kinds of trade accords with south/Central american countries to extract&buy their domestic raw materials, take 'em back to China, then send them back to these same countries in the form of higher priced finished End products. Yet due to their currency and unlimited cheap labor, still the items way below the domestically produced product.

"Wait a minute. What did you just say? You're predicting $4-a-gallon gas? ... That's interesting. I hadn't heard that." -- Feb. 28, 2008 --George W. Bush, Washington, D.C.,

Waterdawg says on Jan 21, 2008, 11:12:

NYB. ..I am going in just the opposite direction.. The place is over built and over priced right now
( Opinion ) Now is not the time to Buy ( for me )

nueva york bombero says on Jan 21, 2008, 11:20:

Kind of a generalization. Is the entire country of Colombia a risk to buy?
Where I am buying it's about to boom (in my opinion).
Good luck....

Waterdawg says on Jan 21, 2008, 13:56:

I am talking Bogota , Its were I live and " Think " I have a feel for.

cdy says on Jan 21, 2008, 14:27:

Another sneeze that is happening worldwide is a credit crunch. Not just Merril Lynch and other US firms that made bad investments in subprime loans, many European banks did the same.

Tough to kick start an economy when the credit folks have turned off the spigot. Good opportunity for cash investors to pick up property however trying to time the market is tough.

nueva york bombero says on Jan 22, 2008, 10:21:

You can't time the market. Go on instincts. Either you have them or you don't.