Gold drops $60 to $942!!!

esanch36 says on Mar 19, 2008, 12:33:

isnt that a rise?

All right, I'll ask: How come it took three seconds to euthanize Eight Belles, but the Womens NBA is starting Year 12???

vicshere says on Mar 19, 2008, 12:40:

try 939.00 glad i bought in at 450. still not selling waiting for 2000

listo

jonas says on Mar 19, 2008, 12:42:

perfect opportunity to buy some more...

What I have, I do not want to lose, but Where I am I do not want to stay, but those I love, I do not want to leave, but those I know I no longer want to see, but Where I die, I do not want to go;I want to stay where I have never been

tomtom33 says on Mar 19, 2008, 12:44:

I think I bought in at $350. Got me one whole ounce.

wendell13 says on Mar 19, 2008, 12:45:

Good one tom....

gringoloid says on Mar 19, 2008, 17:17:

the reason for the drop is that speculators must now put up 20% of margin versus 10%.

tejasmarcos says on Mar 19, 2008, 17:20:

why?

my glass is getting shorter on whiskey, ice and water...

wendell13 says on Mar 19, 2008, 19:09:

Increasing margin cuts down the leverage...many commodities have seen parabolic moves recently. If you think the updraft was quick, wait till you see a downdraft in commodities. It is interesting to look at some historical charts . There are some violent moves both up and down.

If some of these hedge funds are unwinding their positions it could be very interesting to watch. There could be some incredible moves both up and down

I have no dog in this fight

gringoloid says on Mar 19, 2008, 19:19:

i'm expecting a whole lot more volatility........maybe $750 for gold. but after a mid-five figure initial deposit in early 2005 and then monthly dollar cost averaging.........volatility really has no effect on me as i have an average buy in price that is around $500.

dollar costing is the way to go with all of your stock and precious metal investments.

RAAAY says on Mar 19, 2008, 19:23:

Gold......$1150 by July............


Gringoloid.......where is the thread with our short term predictions ( guesses ) on the peso..................did'nt we do one for 3 weeks or 4 weeks or something like that......


.

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

gringoloid says on Mar 19, 2008, 19:24:

its not the hedge funds 'positions' unwinding that will be the problem, its the hedge funds themselves unwinding.

no one even knows how many trillions are involved in this upside down derivative structure.

but as these financial houses of cards crash................gold will do even better.

the trouble is just beginning to start.

gringoloid says on Mar 19, 2008, 19:37:

i just found an interesting statistic.........worldwide derivatives are 'estimated' to be $271 trillion..........that is 5 times worldwide GDP of $57 trillion.

poco says on Mar 19, 2008, 19:38:

Quote: I think I bought in at $350. Got me one whole ounce.

I had two and sold them on eBay last week.

Invested the money in breeding stock. Anyone know how to get peacocks into Colombia?

"Violence is the first refuge of the incompetent" - Isaac Asimov

wendell13 says on Mar 19, 2008, 19:38:

These hedge funds for the most part aren't regulated very well. I agree that some of the funds could be coming unglued. They are a large part of these moves in commodities, though.

The term "hedge fund" is a misnomer. Most of them are not the least bit hedged.

Ya Ray, we need some more posts on the dollar/peso. I think the dollar will rally pretty soon

tejasmarcos says on Mar 19, 2008, 19:42:

so should i bet the farm? the sovereign society folks have been screaming $2000 per ounce for 2 years.

my glass is getting shorter on whiskey, ice and water...

RAAAY says on Mar 19, 2008, 19:43:

.

What is your defination of " pretty soon " ??

.

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

gringoloid says on Mar 19, 2008, 19:43:

yes, there was a thread but rocinante didn't want anything to do with it, so i said the hell with it.

there was only about five of us that participated............... i could tabulate and open the voting up again..........let me know.

i hope to hell rocinante is totally wrong; but after today, i think he may be right.

after whats happened already with my home in california, the thought of a 1400 peso makes me physically sick.

vicshere says on Mar 19, 2008, 19:45:

crap gold hit 918 a little earlier overseas...ouch...back to 934

listo

gringoloid says on Mar 19, 2008, 19:51:

tejas.........i would never bet the farm on anything. it's just too risky.

RAAAY says on Mar 19, 2008, 19:52:

Gringoloid............I just found it...................The comment below was in response to Roc's opting for 1700 in 3 weeks ( Feb 28th)



RAAAY says on Thursday February 28th, 2008 6:41: edit

..........1700 in 3 weeks...................seems very quick.................I would'nt rule out high 1700's.......................maybe 1799...................

The upcoming US expected Fed cut is already priced into the Peso.........most likely accounting for some part of the reason for it's current 1850' ish.....................Colombia raising a further quarter point will create further inflows...............3 weeks.....1799.........

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

RAAAY says on Mar 19, 2008, 19:54:

Tomorrow is exactly three weeks...........Peso hit 1803 at one point today...............Don't rule out 1799 tomorrow.........

.

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

wendell13 says on Mar 19, 2008, 19:56:

Sooner than later. Shortly .Two weeks.....everybody hates the dollar. Right now the Fed is trying to stabilize the system. When the US economy starts to recover they will be raising rates and the dollar will rebound.

The market will turn before most people realize the fundamentals have changed.

gringoloid says on Mar 19, 2008, 19:57:

wendell..........was that you on the Titanic saying help is on the way? :)

RAAAY says on Mar 19, 2008, 19:58:

Wendell.............the dollar is going to re-bound in two weeks.....??????


.

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

wendell13 says on Mar 19, 2008, 20:05:

No, I was saying.."iceberg, what iceberg?"

I said rally

pedro says on Mar 19, 2008, 20:08:

You can't believe all the gold conspiracy theories. I've been reading some of those stories since $250 gold.

One of the famous assertions was that when gold broke through $330, there was going to be a derivatives collapse and JP Morgan was going to hit the wall. Gold punched through $330 but the rest obviously never happened.

I have part of my portfolio long in gold. Remember there are other ways to play it than just buying physical gold. You can also buy shares in gold miners, or even call options on gold miners.

que nota!

el torcido says on Mar 19, 2008, 20:12:

vichsere... don'
t be greedy; sell now.

don't know much about 'conomy

tejasmarcos says on Mar 19, 2008, 20:19:

anybody want to make a speculative trip with me to ecuador?

my glass is getting shorter on whiskey, ice and water...

vicshere says on Mar 19, 2008, 20:20:

naww... i should have sold monday morning..now have to wait for 2000

listo

goin_south says on Mar 19, 2008, 20:23:

"speculative trip with me to ecuador?"
....contact GIB.
He's the adventurous type.
Were you thinking about 'border towns'?

and, thank you.

Man Tequila says on Mar 19, 2008, 20:56:

Well, it's bad news for gold diggers.

Aunque no me creas/ si me lo propongo/ lograre olvidarte/ porque a fin de cuentas/ no soy tan cobarde./ Y termino todo una de estas tardes/ no sera dificil buscar algún sitio donde refugiarme/ donde nunca mas vuelvas a encontrarme. (Polo Montañez)

gringoloid says on Mar 20, 2008, 08:30:

Now this is some bad, bad news here. As you know, I feel this credit bubble is going to explode sometime in the next 2 years.

You guys know I've been trying to get out of the dollar. Well, my precious metals account in London told me this morning that dollars are no longer welcome.

GIB sent a message this morning that UBS, a swiss bank, will no longer open accounts for americans with dollars to change to francs.

This is unbelievably bad news. For all of you that say that everything is peaches and cream..........no recession...........recessions are good...(duh?)............well, we shall see someday soon. I'd like for you guys to tell me when a bank like Bear Stearns had to be bailed out, fraud excepted, since the 1920's.

gringoloid says on Mar 20, 2008, 08:36:

this is another side sent by GIB this morning.....


After the stock market bust in the late 1920s, the US Government passed a law, which made "gold holdings" illegal. They instantly confiscated everyone's gold, and gave them pennies of what it was actually worth, and whoever tried to buy gold again, became a criminal and was either heavily fined or went to prison. This was a desperate act of the government to inspire people to keep spending their money and stop them from hoarding it in other instruments.

I am not sure if you knew this or not, but just a short while back, in 2006, the US government stopped reporting the size of its money supply. That basically means that since 2006, it has been creating money, and nobody in the world officially knows how much money has been put into circulation. This means that the US dollars might be so overinflated in value than most people even realize.

In the beginning of 2008, Chinese officials have mentioned for the second time within a few months that they are holding too many dollars, and they would like to diversify their portfolio. Please note that Japan and China have been the two biggest parties buying up dollars, and their demand for dollars is what has kept it afloat.

Several times in 2007, and perhaps before that, there were serious suggestions made by some European country officials to set Euro as currency to buy and sell oil with. The fact that demand for oil has been high, and that in order to buy oil, one must buy it in US dollars, has also kept demand for dollars high.

So, to make the long story short, we have the US Fed printing as much money as they want, with nobody knowing how much exactly they have been printing, and I have a feeling that the supply of US dollars is increasing a lot more rapidly than demand for them. In addition to that, there are threats from many different parts of the world to hinder demand for US dollars even further.

If a major Swiss Bank is stopping to accept US accounts, perhaps it's one of many preparation steps from US government to make sure its citizens do not get their money out of the country, in case there is another major financial crisis similar to the Great Depression.

Switzerland has shut its doors, but perhaps doors into some other European countries are still open...

gringoloid says on Mar 20, 2008, 08:38:

does anyone know where I can buy gold coins in Bogota???????

RAAAY says on Mar 20, 2008, 08:43:

.

Did he mention anything to you, about his recommendation to you, a few months ago, to sell Gold............it was at $880 at the time..........." DUMP Gold..........it has seen it's top....."...

Did he mention anything to you about his prediction of the peso being at 2300 - 2400 by now.............yesterday it hit 1801........

Maybe he just touched one of his favourite subjects..............taxi drivers with remote controlled exploding cell phones.............


.

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

gringoloid says on Mar 20, 2008, 09:02:

Raay........i've been working on him............i think he is coming to my side.............but not totally as yet.

wendell13 says on Mar 20, 2008, 09:59:

If you believe all of this I sure wouldn't want to hold US real estate. Get out now

BillBigD says on Mar 20, 2008, 13:45:

UBS- You realize that they are beening sued by the US goverment? This is why they stopped.

poco says on Mar 20, 2008, 14:33:

Quote: Right now the Fed is trying to stabilize the system.

I'd disagree,, right now the Fed has nothing more than contingencies and a policy of a wink and nod strong dollar. However, right now many countries will/are starting to PROP UP the dollar. Right now it looks more like folks with other currencies BLINKED.



The likely long term outcome is that the dollar will stabilize at a slightly higher level and other countries will say,, HEY, let’s use these dollars and BUY something in the US.

Gold drops,,what? 10 percent. That is not a big drop for a commodity that is designed to protect wealth. Gosh, only up 13% this year and the market down, ooops, going up, so I'll just say down.

Personally, I sold because you never make anything until you sell. I might buy some back anticipating a trade. My guess there is a downside of 20% with an upside of 40%. I base this on what I believe could be $80 oil this year and vrs. the exchange symbol GLD.

Who knows,, but that's the argument for owning gold.

"Violence is the first refuge of the incompetent" - Isaac Asimov

LDW says on Mar 20, 2008, 14:46:

I remember 1979/80 when people were lining up around city blocks to buy gold at $700 per ounce.

Then the price of gold cratered.

I remember Nelson Bunker Hunt tried to corner the silver market in 1980 at $50 per ounce.

Then the price of silver cratered.

More of us (me included) should follow Sir John Templeton's advice.

He described himself as an "accommodator".

When people are anxiously buying, he "accommodates" them by selling.

When people are anxiously selling, he "accommodates" them by buying.

vicshere says on Mar 20, 2008, 14:47:

the day finished off at 910 holy crap 120 drop over last 3 days... glad the weeeeeek is over

listo

poco says on Mar 20, 2008, 15:25:

Quote: I remember Nelson Bunker Hunt tried to corner the silver market in 1980 at $50 per ounce.

Ha, melting silver coins, silverware and buying $10,000 bags of silver currency.

$10,000 invested in coins is worth less than $5,000 dollars today. The same 10K invested at 5% is worth $35,000 or a $30,000 dollar loss (plus storage).

Oh, no,, you could sell coins on eBay and not pay taxes !!!! Maybe that's where they get the 90% silver collectors coins, bags of silver !!!!

What did people do with bags of coins?

"Violence is the first refuge of the incompetent" - Isaac Asimov

wendell13 says on Mar 20, 2008, 15:39:

I hope you gold bugs make some money. I wouldn't be greedy, though. You know what they say.

There were a lot of people dollar cost averaging while the Nasdaq crashed from 5000 to a little over 1000 in 2000. They had a lot of buying opportunities, also.

But the bugs say the times are different this time. Where have I heard that before?

If you would have bought gold in 1979 at around 400 or about half way up to the high of approx. 800 high in 1980, guess what your return would have been 25 years later?. If you didn't sell a couple of small spikes your return is ZERO. 25 years later the price was the same.

People who bought in 1979 at 400 and 25 years later in 2004, they saw zero gain! That is a nice store of value, isn't it? Factor in inflation and that is one of the worst investments possible. That is really protecting your wealth.

Now we have a huge rise again to 1030. It is pulling back now. What I am saying is to bank some of your profits. That is all. Don't be a pig. Good luck.

tomtom33 says on Mar 20, 2008, 16:15:

The 10K invested at 5% coming to $35K. Does that take into account the income tax bite?

poco says on Mar 20, 2008, 18:27:

Quote: The 10K invested at 5% coming to $35K. Does that take into account the income tax bite?

Two things, maybe more,, put the money into a retirement account,, no taxes until you take it out.

There are also funds that aren't taxed until you sell. Dividends can be reinvested. Many ways to avoid taxes or reduce their effect when your earned income drops.

Roth IRA's payout tax free but there are restrictions.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roth_IRA

"Violence is the first refuge of the incompetent" - Isaac Asimov

wendell13 says on Mar 20, 2008, 18:29:

I'm from Waterloo-CF

gringoloid says on Mar 20, 2008, 18:46:

that recent run up in the price of gold these past weeks from 700 to over a 1000 was just too much, too fast..........it had to fall back. it's totally normal behavior.

gringoloid says on Mar 20, 2008, 18:48:

if you buy the gold right there is no income tax.

gold is only meant to be 5% of your portfolio, also. anyone betting the house is crazy although i have a friend in Idaho that bet the farm on silver and is doing pretty good now.

you guys know i've been a gold nut for quite sometime...............only about 2.3% of my portfolio is in metals.

vicshere says on Mar 20, 2008, 18:49:

i remember 10 years ago if gold moved a couple of bucks everyone would freak out...now we have 30 bucks swings in a day and no one is jumping out of windows

listo

tomtom33 says on Mar 21, 2008, 03:25:

Poco, I realized your initial point, and my comments did not play to it.

I was just trying(and not succeeding) to make a different point: real return. Even if you forget about taxes, what would inflation have done to that 5% return?