Go Peso Go...

panthdave says on May 29, 2008, 09:27:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602096&sid=aLputzFGMgpk&refer...


Above is an interesting article just posted by a Bloomberg reporter from Bogota.

The reporter also emailed me because of the US Demand for Commodities in which Colombia believes will not slow down there will be an inflow of dollars in which will cause the Peso to grow stronger and this morning a US Report came out that the economy grew stronger than expected. She also mentioned though non commodity exports will get hurt because of the stronger Peso because US Buyers will go elsewhere like flowers....So it works both ways..but with commodity prices very high and a future forecast of high demand to the US the Peso will get stronger....

panthdave Miami

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viajero123 says on May 29, 2008, 09:31:

www.portafolio.com.co also has an almost live service of the USD-COP market.

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panthdave says on May 29, 2008, 09:55:

USD-COP 1754.0500 -12.8750 -0.7287% 12:38

Lets go any bets...12:38PM Bloomberg..

panthdave Miami

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panthdave says on May 29, 2008, 09:58:

USD-COP 1753.9300 -12.9950 -0.7355% 12:53

12:53 Bloomberg......Peso flying high right now....Better get to the bank quick..and get those Pesos...

panthdave Miami

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Brians says on May 29, 2008, 10:31:

Dave don't you earn money in Florida??

Probably going to see further strength with all these good headlines from colombia recently.

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panthdave says on May 29, 2008, 10:40:

yes but my household in Medellin has income in Pesos and Dollars..so I can switch back and forth...luckily though I bought many Pesos at a good price for safe keeping..just in case.

panthdave Miami

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panthdave says on May 29, 2008, 10:43:

USD-COP 1747.4000 -19.5250 -1.1050% 13:38

There you go drops below 1750 as of 13:38

panthdave Miami

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rocinante says on May 29, 2008, 12:32:

"...currently Colombia's economic growth and other numbers, real or speculative, are higher and more oportunistic than those of Brazil. Investors/speculators are convinced that it is only a matter of time before Colombia's credit rating and political rating are upgraded - meaning that some major foreign institutional investors who have been waiting to take advantage of this growth and high interest rates will be jumping in. Right now they can't/won't as only one of Colombia's long term debt ratings is considered "Investment Grade" and that is only by S&P - not by Moody's or Fitch although S&P is highly repectable."

http://poorbuthappy.com/colombia/post/woe-peso-up-a-bit/

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

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bradenmiami says on May 29, 2008, 13:38:

Time to start investing in some USD to take home and pay off the bills!!!!!

The "lovemedellin website" is a piece of crap made by some moron who has only been to Medellin once...you'd be better off reading the Lonely Planet advice from a guy who never even came here!

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panthdave says on May 29, 2008, 15:14:

They also commented they are going to raise rates again soon to stall inflation..Central Bank of Colombia...which will make the Peso stronger....

What a day for the Peso....against the Dollar and Euro...and probably the Pound did not check..

panthdave Miami

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rocinante says on May 29, 2008, 16:21:

Without a doubt you are 100% correct panthdave. Today's bump had a great deal to do with Colombia's Central Bank talking about raising the rate to curb inflation. But remember, IMNSHO lots more money will pour into the COP/Colombia once the rate DOES rise and once the credit and political ratings DO get upgraded. You think this was a nice jump today? Wait....

There is not alot of "leading" speculation here as this is mostly debt and hardly equity we are talking about here (in regards to interest rates and the Central Banks comments - meaning that because the central bank here is talking about rates getting a hike doesn't mean foreign investors are purchasing COP today in order to purchase shares of Juan Valdez).

SO this means large investors don't need to speculate about the rate going up in the future by purchasing interest rate sensitive instruments (read equities) today. They will wait for it to actually happen, the widening of the yield differential, and then purchase [more] safe debt.

When's that Colombian FOMC meeting?

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

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BillBigD says on May 29, 2008, 21:25:

$1740-Ouch for sure.
US Demand for Commodities will stay strong? Hope people noticed what Gold, oil, silver. copper have been doing. Even coffee was down today. LOL

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robi666 says on May 29, 2008, 21:35:

Colombian Central Bank will hardly raise the rates more than this. They left the rate untouched just few days ago.
I bet they will begin low the rate soon. Uribe was asking it again.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aatvp6Vh68TY

Planning to live or already living here, I'd be more concerned about inflation than simply converting Dollars into Pesos. Put your Pesos at work (the simpler thing to do is still invest in stocks or real estate).

"I am a citizen of the most beautiful nation on earth. A nation whose laws are harsh yet simple, a nation that never cheats, which is immense and without borders, where life is lived in the present."

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BillBigD says on May 29, 2008, 23:10:

Might not raise but probably far from cutting.
The Bogota-based central bank maintained the overnight interbank lending rate at 9.75 percent, matching 32 of 41 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey. Nine analysts had expected an increase to 10 percent

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bradenmiami says on May 30, 2008, 12:37:

I feel sorry for you pension guys!

The "lovemedellin website" is a piece of crap made by some moron who has only been to Medellin once...you'd be better off reading the Lonely Planet advice from a guy who never even came here!

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rocinante says on May 30, 2008, 12:47:

New News:

"``If the U.S. economy does well, it favors the perspective that the inflow of dollars from export sales will remain high,'' said Alvaro Camaro, chief analyst at Stanford Financial Group's unit in Bogota. He said the peso also gained on speculation Colombian central bankers will raise the overnight lending rate as soon as next month to curb inflation.

....


Annual inflation will quicken to 5.8 percent in May from 5.73 percent a month earlier, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 18 economists. The National Statistics Agency is slated to release the monthly report on June 1. The central bank targets inflation between 3.5 percent and 4.5 percent this year.

`Still a Problem'

Banco de la Republica last week left the benchmark rate at a six-year high of 9.75 percent. The bank's next policy meeting is June 27.

``Inflation is still a problem and the central bank's tendency is geared more toward raising rates than cutting them any time soon,'' Camaro said. ``Should inflation come in higher than expected this month, policy makers may raise rates again as early as June.'' "

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602096&sid=aLputzFGMgpk&refer...


The pension guys got it tough but at least the dont have to worry about rates in 20 years - which could be less than 500.

Robbi offers sage advice: "Planning to live or already living here, I'd be more concerned about inflation than simply converting Dollars into Pesos. Put your Pesos at work (the simpler thing to do is still invest in stocks or real estate)."

I would be concerned about inflation AND the exchange rate. JMHO

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

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RAAAY says on May 30, 2008, 12:50:

Zeus says

....... " At this rate Americans won't be going much longer. Or maybe anywhere."

Colombia is mor attractive than ever at these rates. The weak dollar has made European travel prohibitive, the islands are very expensive, Brazil's rate has become even worse. At 1500 COP to the $ it is still a bargin here, just not as much of a bargin as it used to be.

It should actually encourage even more to come here.

.

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

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rocinante says on May 30, 2008, 12:53:

"It should actually encourage even more to come here." RAAAAY

Instead of going to expensive Paris or some Caribbean Islands. Makes sense.

BUT

Of course Colombia still has a bad reputation so the increase in tourists is not likely. Sorry but I don't agree with ya there Ray. This will stop the guys who are used to the 2000 rate from coming again. When the going gets tough the general US traveler staysin the US instead of scaling down to other countries. It's the just the mindset.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

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RAAAY says on May 30, 2008, 13:16:

Sorry to dis-agree Roc................Call any travel agent in the US...........trips to South America have balloned versus one year ago........they put the reason down to the dollar not going as far, in more traditional locations.

Yes, Colombia still has a stigma to overcome, but that is happening, albeit slowly. I'm not suggesting there is going to be a flood of American tourists coming here, only that the weak dollar is actually making it attractive for them. They will come in greater numbers........( God help us)

.

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

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rocinante says on May 30, 2008, 13:32:

OK let's be on the same side and agree that the numbers are up. Each travel agency might have 30 trips booked to SA this year vs. 11 last year.

But how many are Caracas, Margarita Island, Machu Pichu, Galapagos, Rio - and how many are Colombia?

I just don't see the average middle American, 2.3 kids, white picket fence, 2 cats in the yard opting for Cali instead of their usual Carnival cruise or European jaunt. I see these guys renting a cottage in Nantucket or the outter banks.

Either way more tourists means more money in the economy here. Not a bad thing. I hope you are right.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

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tejasmarcos says on May 30, 2008, 15:35:

most of the colombia tourists end up in cartagena.

trying to walk a straight line on sour mash and cheap wine...

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panthdave says on May 30, 2008, 16:09:

I don't think the Peso being strong will halt Tourists....Now if airfares skyrocket that might be the turndown..I still know people who go to Europe even though the dollar is weak they just eat from a grocery store instead of restaurants and scale back on lower end hotels. How did the Aussies survived many years on traveling they budget....but Colombia is still a steal at 1400.00 Pesos to 1. Might not want to eat in Parque Llares each night or stay in fancy hotels in Cartegena or Bogota...I would not feel sorry for the Tourists at this point I feel for the non commodity export business will take a serious hit.....Medellin(Textiles and Flowers) get ready they are going to take a hit..otherwise Colombia its about time getting strong currency...

The big turndown will be airfare if that skyrockets...to South America.

panthdave Miami

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panthdave says on May 30, 2008, 16:31:

Now with the strong peso let the sex tourists go back to Costa Rica...or Thailand...that can go away...I hope with the strong peso and girls now charging more to keep with inflation sex tourists will stop..In the beginning I was like who cares its not bothering me has nothing to do with me but now I see the downside of that industry. I think it hurts the community and now with me being in Colombia for good amount of time I see cons more than pros..and knowing more people and families and when a father or mother see's there daughter or a family member in the business it really sucks....so that can go I hope with the strong peso..

So let the currency get strong more investors come in and create jobs in other industries locally....Colombia is a great country now that I am understanding the Colombian culture and people..took time but was worth it..and still is..

Go Peso Go Peso Go...

panthdave Miami

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BillBigD says on May 30, 2008, 19:23:

rocinante-I am with you AVE family is not going to Colombia. In fact I don't have any American friends that have been to Colombia.
Rubito-Most are more free with with their money it is called vacation.

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tomtom33 says on May 31, 2008, 12:31:

The total elimination of all sex tourism will not effect prostitution in Colombia one whit. There are downsides to any industry. The family member in the business is banging Colombianos.

Sex tourists will pay for quality. I don't see the strong peso affecting sex tourism more than any other kind of tourism.

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