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From Friday's STRATEGIC FORECASTING Newsletter

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Colombia: Judgment Day in Bogota Summary The paramilitary United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia said Oct. 6 that it is suspending its participation in the demobilization process under way with the government. This puts Bogota in a position in which its most pressing priorities are now quite literally at the mercy of the court: the Constitutional Court, that is. And the court will likely -- but not for certain -- side with the government in these cases. Analysis The paramilitary United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) announced Oct. 6 that it is suspending its participation in the demobilization process under way with the government. An AUC spokesman said the group will resume the process once the government offers strict assurances that, after turning themselves in, AUC leaders will not be extradited to the United States to face drug charges. AUC's move represents a response to the possible extradition to the United States of Diego Murillo, an AUC leader. The action indicates the group likely was told by its sources in the Colombian government that Bogota was planning to extradite Murillo under pressure from Washington -- but there is far more to the story than this. At present, the Constitutional Court largely holds the near- and medium-term future of Colombia in its proverbial hands. The court is considering the constitutionality of a law that would permit President Alvaro Uribe Velez to seek re-election in May 2006. The court also will soon review the validity of Colombia's Peace and Justice Law, passed to govern the demobilization of the AUC. With these two issues on hold until the court issues its rulings, all the government and AUC can do is wait. Though the court is likely to rule in ways favorable to both Bogota and the AUC, this is not assured. And if the court should toss out either of the laws, considerable consequences would follow. With Uribe having pledged to achieve full AUC disarmament by the end of 2005, the AUC is playing hardball by stepping back from the process and forcing Uribe to make a choice between the AUC demands and U.S. calls for AUC leaders' extradition. Under the Peace and Justice Law, passed by Colombia's Congress in July, paramilitary leaders face a maximum of eight years in prison in Colombia while keeping all of their gains from the drug trade -- terms lenient enough to give the group a strong incentive to avoid extradition. From the AUC perspective, though, the extradition issue is not the only reason to put the demobilization process on hold. Two fundamental issues vital to both Uribe and the AUC are actually at stake before the court. If the Peace and Justice Law should be overruled by the court, the demobilization process would be scuttled and would have to begin anew. This would be worrisome not only for Colombia's security, but for Uribe as well, who has been hoping to hang his political hat on the AUC's final demobilization. Even if the Peace and Justice Law should survive the court's scrutiny, the AUC cannot have faith that the deal would be enforced, as Uribe might not be around to keep the government's side of the bargain. If the court should bar Uribe from seeking re-election by tossing out the constitutional amendment passed by Congress providing for his run, the AUC would lose its negotiating partner. And the paramilitaries want to deal with Uribe because he is sympathetic to the group and because the group has close ties to his government. If the continuity of his presidency and government were interrupted by the court's decision, the AUC would face significant uncertainty and likely would walk away from the demobilization process. The first answer will come on the question of re-election, with a ruling likely to be made the week of Oct. 10. Despite the amendment's overwhelming popular and congressional support, it appears the court could potentially reject it on procedural grounds since its passage does not seem to have followed all the mandated steps. Still, the court does tend to take popular opinion into consideration when making important decisions, and with Uribe's approval ratings at around 70 percent, it probably will let the amendment stand. It is likely that the court will uphold the Peace and Justice Law, too, given that the majority of Colombians support it. Again, however, the law mandates stiffer penalties for the known crimes of AUC leaders than the Peace and Justice Law establishes, meaning the court does have potential legal ground to stand on should it decide to toss the Peace and Justice Law out. A Colombia minus Uribe and an agreement with the AUC would be a more unstable and uncertain Colombia. If, on the other hand, Uribe stays and the Peace and Justice Law goes, then the same would hold true, though the instability would be less severe. And even if both laws are upheld, Uribe will still need to satisfy the contradictory AUC and U.S. demands regarding extradition. Right now, however, it appears up the court to decide whether Uribe and the AUC will even have the chance to deal with this question.

By Miguel on Oct 9, 2005, 22:47 in Friendly Talkzone.