From Alcalde To Presidente...again?

Simon says on Nov 25, 2007, 17:07:

Sergio Fajardo seems like a good, decent, patriotic Colombia, along the lines of Uribe. I'm sure that if he is elected president (which I hope he is), he will continue to keep kicking the FARC's asses!

HERE'S SIMON!!!!

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Gator says on Nov 25, 2007, 18:55:

I am sure that some one who is not a believable hard-liner on the FARC queston can NOT be elected in Colombia at this time.

"Brevior Sltare Cum Deformibus Mulieribus Est Vita!" .

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Medellin Traveler says on Nov 25, 2007, 19:12:

I don't know much about the political process in Colombia, but I understood that Fajardo needs to hold a higher office before he can run for President of Colombia. I may be wrong, but that's what I thought to be the case.

Also, isn't Uribe going to get re-elected again, after changing the constitution, again?

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Gator says on Nov 25, 2007, 20:02:

ANYONE can run

"Brevior Sltare Cum Deformibus Mulieribus Est Vita!" .

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Rob77 says on Nov 25, 2007, 20:38:

MT, I don't think higher office would be necessary for Fajardo to win. His work in Medellin has brought very noticeable results. He was just voted the best mayor in Colombia. As for precedent, Pastrana was Mayor of Bogota before being elected President.

BOYCOTT CITGO - CHAVEZ SUCKS!!!

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Medellin Traveler says on Nov 25, 2007, 20:45:

OK guys, thanks for clearing that up.

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Rob77 says on Nov 26, 2007, 04:28:

I'm not sure about that GIB. Moreno's victory in Bogota may say more about people's dissatisfaction with the job Lucho did. Whereas, in Medellin, Fajardo's assistant was elected on a campaign of continuing Fajardo's successes.

BOYCOTT CITGO - CHAVEZ SUCKS!!!

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Gator says on Nov 26, 2007, 06:03:

Antanas Mockus was elected for two terms as mayor of Bogotá and ran for president twice.
In the 2006 election he received 1.24% of the vote.

"Brevior Sltare Cum Deformibus Mulieribus Est Vita!" .

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Rob77 says on Nov 26, 2007, 06:56:

Gator, not many candidates stood a chance against the popularity of Uribe last time around. Colombians were not used to seeing a President actually accomplish anything they promised. They wanted to give him a chance to continue accomplishing goals. Colombians are now becoming complacent with what has been achieved and getting used to a President doing their job. They may now be more willing to give someone else a chance.

It's hard to tell how Mockus or Fajardo would approach the armed conflicts. But they both would clearly advance the country's social agenda, as they did as Mayors. And social issues are at the root of most of the country's problems. Universal public education, health care, government reforms and transparency, etc.

BOYCOTT CITGO - CHAVEZ SUCKS!!!

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Gator says on Nov 26, 2007, 09:36:

That's not what we pick up. After a brief slip in his otherwise strong popularity ratings, president Uribe has regained support, according to a poll by Gallup in late September. 73 per cent of respondents in four cities approve of Uribe’s performance, up seven points since July

"And social issues are at the root of most of the country's problems. Universal public education, health care, government reforms and transparency, etc."

Hard to provide when you have FARC, et. al. running around.

"Brevior Sltare Cum Deformibus Mulieribus Est Vita!" .

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Rob77 says on Nov 26, 2007, 10:04:

I don't see the correlation between his approval ratings and the chance for someone like Fajardo or Mockus getting elected. Approval ratings are one thing. I would be more interested in seeing a poll on whether people currently support a third term for Uribe. That would be more telling.

As for advancing social issues, I agree the armed groups have drained plenty of money and human resources away from social matters. But Fajardo showed it can still be done, with projects liek buildings modern libraries in the poorest parts of the city, organizing the city's transportation system, etc.

BOYCOTT CITGO - CHAVEZ SUCKS!!!

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Sr Tertius says on Nov 26, 2007, 18:50:

"Moreno's victory in Bogota may say more about people's dissatisfaction with the job Lucho did."
I don't get it Rob: If Bogotanos are dissatisfied with Lucho, why would they elect the candidate of his own party? And why would Lucho have favorability rates above 60%?

You are right about approval rates vs. vote intention. The approval rates of Uribe are way above the percentage of Colombians that would support a third term. That's probably why he remains ambiguous about that point, and his coalition is scrambling to find a suitable successor.

"As for advancing social issues, I agree the armed groups have drained plenty of money and human resources away from social matters. But Fajardo showed it can still be done"
Not only he, but many other local governments have shown that a lot of progress can be attained in the midst of war. The FARC excuse is too old to hold any water.

I disagree, though, that Uribe has accomplished any substantial portion of the 100 points he promised in his first election. Pick a point.

http://www.terra.com.co/elecciones_2002/candidatos_presidencia/alvaro_...



7. La Presidencia será austera para dar ejemplo. Gastará menos en burocracia para invertir más, por ejemplo, en pequeña empresa.

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

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Gator says on Nov 26, 2007, 19:11:

Let's see, a survey by local pollster National Consulting Center, or CNC, found 54 percent of Colombians backed a new term for Uribe, who enjoys popularity of more than 70 percent, mainly due to his crackdown on left-wing guerrillas that has eased violence and helped economic growth. At this point it is a moot point since he has not said he will run and legally he can not.

Polling Data

Would you support or oppose allowing Ã?lvaro Uribe to run for president for a third consecutive time?

Support

49.13%


49.13%

Oppose

43.01%

Not sure

7.86%

Has your opinion of Ã?lvaro Uribe improved, worsened or stayed the same over the past year?

Improved

22%

Stayed the same

55%

Worsened

19%

"Brevior Sltare Cum Deformibus Mulieribus Est Vita!" .

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Sr Tertius says on Nov 26, 2007, 19:18:

I read 49% not 54%. Anyway, nowhere near 70%. That was my point.

"mainly due to his crackdown on left-wing guerrillas that has eased violence and helped economic growth."
Are you stating this as a fact or as what Colombians opine? As a fact, it is false. As opinion, it's a misinterpretation. I don't doubt many people believe this. Many people believe also that the Virgin appears in arepas. I simply shrug my shoulders.

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

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Sr Tertius says on Nov 26, 2007, 19:27:

BTW, I'm very favorable of candidates like Fajardo for president; I hope he decides to run. But I also hope he's not tempted to accept the endorsement of the paraco-criminals of the Uribista coalition, or of the conservatives. I doubt he would: Their approval rating is very low.

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

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billyb says on Nov 26, 2007, 20:17:

""As for advancing social issues, I agree the armed groups have drained plenty of money and human resources away from social matters. But Fajardo showed it can still be done"

Fighting the war and rebuilding the infrastructure like power transmission towers that the bandits damage comes out of the federal budget, not municipal ones, so it's not exactly a fair comparison.

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billyb says on Nov 26, 2007, 20:25:

" Many people believe also that the Virgin appears in arepas."

But not the majority, so it's not really a valid comparison. It's not just "many" people that believe in what Uribe has accomplished, it is the vast majority. Are you saying that people shouldn't believe what they are seeing with their own eyes and are experiencing in their own lives and instead put their faith on some abstract political thesis espoused by a tiny minority with a clearly biased agenda?

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Gator says on Nov 26, 2007, 20:30:

Post was not clear but that was two different polls. What do you REALLY know about Fajardo?

"Their approval rating is very low."
Please cite your figures

"Brevior Sltare Cum Deformibus Mulieribus Est Vita!" .

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Sr Tertius says on Nov 26, 2007, 21:50:

Wha? You don't believe the Virgin appears in arepas? Ok, ok, how about the afterlife? As far as I know most people haven't actually seen it, but the vast majority believes in it in some form. I dare anyone to show me proof that his "crackdown on left-wing guerrillas" has substantially contributed to the economy or reduced violence. I'm not saying that the economy hasn't grown and violence hasn't been reduced (which is what people has experienced): I'm questioning the attributed cause, which most Colombians have NOT experienced--and those who have, like the people of Putumayo, ain't seen better quality of life.

"What do you REALLY know about Fajardo?"
Not much. But he sounds like civil, effective, do-more-talk-less kind of guy. I'd have to educate myself on him before I give him my vote, of course.

"Please cite your figures"
You are right: The figures force me to qualify my statement. According to the parapolitica poll conducted by Ipsos-NF (much more reliable than Gallup) in April (a bit outdated, but that's the best data I know of), the approval of the Uribista groups is of 36%--not nearly as high as Fajardo's or Uribe's numbers and very close to the Liberal party rating (32%), but much higher than I recalled. The conservatives only get 27%. The guys involved in parapolitica, 12%. Anyway, if I had 70 % approval rate, I sure wouldn't want to be associated with any of these people.

http://www.semana.com/wf_InfoArticulo.aspx?idArt=103020

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

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Rob77 says on Nov 27, 2007, 05:07:

Let's hope Moreno sticks to working on issues in Bogotá and lets Fajardo or Mockus tackle national issues, (meaning not trying to leapfrog into the Presidential race while in the middle of his term as Mayor of Bogotá.)

BOYCOTT CITGO - CHAVEZ SUCKS!!!

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Gator says on Nov 27, 2007, 06:40:

" ...Mockus tackle national issues,..."

Surely you jest? He knows nothing and thinks he knows everything. That points clearly to a political career.

"Brevior Sltare Cum Deformibus Mulieribus Est Vita!" .

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Rob77 says on Nov 27, 2007, 06:48:

Colombia has a long history of politicians who say a lot and do nothing more than help themselves to a large share of the pie. A long history of useless Presidents are what made Uribe stand out for actually doing something. Garzon was/is completely useless and obviously corrupt, helping his buddies more than anyone in the city.

So, when the choice comes down to useless and corrupt politicians or someone with less experience but clearly dedicated to helping their country progress, I'll take the sincere, hard working candidates, who may mess up occassionally, but put everything into it.

BOYCOTT CITGO - CHAVEZ SUCKS!!!

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billyb says on Nov 27, 2007, 06:55:

" I'm not saying that the economy hasn't grown and violence hasn't been reduced (which is what people has experienced): I'm questioning the attributed cause,"

What would you attribute it to then?

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Sr Tertius says on Nov 27, 2007, 07:29:

"Garzon was/is completely useless and obviously corrupt" (?!)
Care to elaborate? With some figures, if possible.

"What would you attribute it to then?"
I promise I'll get back to this, but I've touched this point before here in PBH.

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

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Rob77 says on Nov 27, 2007, 07:37:

Sr, you don't need figures to see that his talk of low income housing for the huge demand creating from everyone running towards the city for refuge was just talk! He accomplished only token results. The examples of his corruption are endless, in areas such as helping his buddies by allowing all the private parking companies to jack up prices with no repercussions. And the HUGE bonuses he authorized to the councilmen was classic. Just a bunch of fat cats helping themselves to the publics' money.

BOYCOTT CITGO - CHAVEZ SUCKS!!!

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Sr Tertius says on Nov 27, 2007, 14:19:

Sorry Rob, but I'd need some evidence, or something that supports your claims.

The subsidized housing crisis is absolutely true, and Garzón has taken all the blame for the mismanagement (http://www.eltiempo.com/bogota/2007-11-23/ARTICULO-WEB-NOTA_INTERIOR-3...). Honesty and taking responsibility--the precise opposite of corruption--even when things are gone wrong, counts for a lot in my book.

"He accomplished only token results" If you are referring to his policies IN GENERAL, I'm afraid you are waaay off. And figures are useful. The Bogota Como Vamos project (http://www.bogotacomovamos.org/bogotacv/scripts/index.php) run by El Tiempo, Corona Foundation, and the Chamber of Commerce, the most comprehensive independent evaluation of the government of the city, gives very high marks to Garzon's administration.

If you have anything to show that suggests that he "helped his buddies" in the parking business, I'd like to see it, because I haven't heard such accusations. As far as I know, the parking business is not a monopoly and prices are determined by and large by the market, and if anything, Garzon had considered intervening to reduce speculation (http://www.motor.com.co/noticias_precios/herramientas/normas_y_leyes/n...). But I guess if he doesn't do anything, he is helping his buddies, and if he does something, he is a socialist prick intervening on the market. Can't win either way.

"And the HUGE bonuses he authorized to the councilmen was classic" Can you point at a better description of this? I haven't heard of any authorization of extraordinary bonuses to the Council which is, mind you, majoritarily run by non-PDA politicians. If anything, Garzon has been opposed by his own party in the Council. Note that the Council co-governs with the Mayor for many of these budget issues.

I'm not saying that Garzon and the PDA in general are virginal angels. Far from that. But there is corruption and then there is massive brutal bloodsucking corruption. And politics is not about choosing the perfect but the least bad. In relative terms, the administration of Garzon has been very clean, and the public opinion has recognized that. AFAIK, his party has not colluded with mass murderers to retain power, suck dry the public treasure, and influence the operation of government agencies. Now THAT'S corruption.

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

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