España ofrece a Alvaro Uribe defender la soberanía de Colombia en la frontera

billyb says on Jan 24, 2008, 15:46:

Seems like this last week has been very positive and fruitful for Colombia's and Uribe's foreign policy, much to the dismay of some I'm sure.

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Sr Tertius says on Jan 24, 2008, 15:54:

of whom?

I'm glad that, after 6 years in power, Uribe is finally scoring good diplomatic points. It was about time.

My guess is that Pastrana is behind all of this. Whatever works is fine by me.

I hope all of this translates in the actual liberation of the hostages. Otherwise, it's a lot of "tilín tilín" and zero "paletas".

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

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billyb says on Jan 24, 2008, 15:55:

Jaja, were your ears ringing?

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Sr Tertius says on Jan 24, 2008, 15:59:

Some people have the impression that I am rabidly anti-Uribe. I'm not. But who were you thinking of?

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

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billyb says on Jan 24, 2008, 16:00:

I'm sure Uribe will accept your compliment, left handed as it is.

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catherine b says on Jan 24, 2008, 16:02:

Pastrana???

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Sr Tertius says on Jan 24, 2008, 16:16:

"I'm sure Uribe will accept your compliment, left handed as it is."

I doubt it. He doesn't read my letters.

"Pastrana???"

Pastrana, like him or not (and I don't like him a bit), is the Colombian master of diplomacy. That's why Uribe kept his team in Washington, and eventually even named Pastrana himself to that embassy. Half of the team in La Hague, dealing with the Nicaraguan situation, are from Pastrana. Pastrana has particularly strong connections with the EU, and very strong ones with the Spaniards. He was a critical figure in Grupo Prisa buying El Tiempo. I don't think it was a coincidence that after Uribe got into a fight with Pastrana, we saw the diplomatic blunders of the end of 07. And does anybody really believe that Fernando Araujo knows anything about foreign relations? That ministry is managed by Pastranistas--when Uribe allows. Pastrana, as much as I despise him, is none of the idiot that some people think he is.

The other possibility is that, right after making the worst diplomatic decisions in the history of Colombia, Uribe and his team suddenly figured out exactly what strings to pull... all by themselves... I really don't think so.

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

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podborski says on Jan 24, 2008, 17:22:

saw a headline on bloomberg tv here that said Uribe's popularity has surpassed 80%.

I was thinking exactly like you billyb, that's got to disappoint some of his obsessive detractors here, you know, the ones who always jump on any positive news about Uribe and try to spin it into something negative.

not that they dislike him or anything, jajaja

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Sr Tertius says on Jan 24, 2008, 18:44:

Plop!

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

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minina says on Jan 24, 2008, 19:05:

The people that dislike him in here, don't realize that if it wasn't for Uribe's government policies,the chances of them ever visiting Colombia would be very slim (security reasons).

Tanto que se quejan pero si no fuera por la politica del gobierno de Uribe. Colombia estaria igual que Irak. Yo note el cambio cuando fue en el 2006. Se respira un aire de mas tranquilidad, de mas prosperidad, y eso me alegra mucho.

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Sr Tertius says on Jan 24, 2008, 19:07:

¿Por qué piensas que estaría igual que Irak?

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

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billyb says on Jan 24, 2008, 20:14:

I think the salient point of the article is the complete turnaround of Spain under Zapatero from when he first came to power. Back then he wouldn't give Uribe the time of day and was cosying up to Chavez and offering to sell him military aircraft and frigates. fastfoward to now and you have them signing a strategic alliance with Colombia. I wonder if this will rescusitate that ill fated tank sale? They might come in handy in this new military enviroment vis-a-vis Venezuela.

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juancegomez says on Jan 25, 2008, 08:20:

Sr Tertius: I don't really know if Pastrana is behind all of this, but he did recently call on Uribe to "use him", so...I wouldn't be surprised if he's pulled a few strings or at least provided a road map of sorts.

Little nitpick: EL TIEMPO was purchased by Planeta (linked to the PP), not Prisa (which owns Caracol Radio and is linked to the PSOE).

As for Fernando Araujo, I agree...he's just there as a symbol and in order to carry around an aura of sympathy for his plight as a victim of kidnapping, not because he's otherwise the man most suitable for the job.

minina: "Colombia estaria igual que Irak."

Lo dudo mucho. Son dos países muy diferentes, sus historias no tienen demasiado en común.

billyb: I guess he figured out that Chavez is a bit too hot to handle, so to speak...but I wouldn't really expect the tanks (as old and in need of repair as they were, so much so that apparently other branches of the military wanted to modify the potential deal) to come back to the table.

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billyb says on Jan 25, 2008, 08:26:

Yes, they were pretty decrepit, but would serve nicely as mobile artillery platforms against an incursion.

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Rob77 says on Jan 25, 2008, 10:55:

The timing of the statement from Spain about helping to protect the broder is very curious. Right after Chavez orders troops to be statoned along the border. There may be a message in there especially for Chavez.

BOYCOTT CITGO - CHAVEZ SUCKS!!!

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Sr Tertius says on Jan 25, 2008, 11:43:

Thanks for the correction Juance.

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

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vladimiro says on Jan 26, 2008, 20:57:

I wonder what Spain means by "defend" colombia. Maybe they were just trying to sell weapons to Colombia.

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billyb says on Jan 26, 2008, 21:04:

The thing is that when Zapatero came to power, he cancelled the tank sale to Colombia and approved frigate and military aircraft sales to Chavvie, but now I think there has been a 180 degree turnabout and i don't believe it has anything to do with commercial interests, but rather a realization by Spain, and indeed the whole of europe and the rest of the world for that matter, that Chavvie is out of control.

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billyb says on Jan 26, 2008, 22:03:

Escaramuzas verbales
Andy Webb-Vidal*, corresponsal en Venezuela de la más prestigiosa revista de estrategia militar del mundo, analiza para SEMANA la actitud agresiva del presidente Hugo Chávez.
Fecha: 01/26/2008 -1343
Al presidente Hugo Chávez le encanta usar refranes en su programa televisado Reality revolucionario, Aló, Presidente, y entre sus predilectos están algunas joyas: "A cada cochino le llega su sábado" y "Guerra avisada no mata soldado". No sería descabellado tomar estas frases en cuenta al intentar el destino de las relaciones bilaterales.

En cosa de semanas, el inquilino del Palacio de Miraflores no sólo ha cortado la línea de comunicación oficial con Colombia, sino que a la vez se ha convertido en un aliado de las Farc, el enemigo interno. Esto representa un reto sin precedentes para Colombia.

Uno de los errores que siempre se repite al analizar el comportamiento del 'caballero bolivariano' de Caracas es su descalificación como un ruidoso vecino del barrio, el que habla mucho pero que nunca va más allá de una retórica cargada de disparates tropicales.

La inversión militar en Venezuela hasta el año 2010 llega a 30.000 millones de pesos. Incluye 24 cazabombarderos, siete helicópteros de ataque, nueve submarinos y 600 vehículos blindados, entro otros
PUBLICIDAD
No es así. Chávez es un zorro, con una habilidad -afilada después de nueve años en el poder- para el uso de la provocación como táctica para desequilibrar a sus enemigos. Otra cosa es cierta: Chávez ha tenido a Colombia en la mira desde hace años, pero siempre la ubicaba en segundo plano debido a lo difícil que representa enfrentar a un gobernante popular, como es el presidente �lvaro Uribe, y la tentadora existencia de otros blancos más fáciles de captar, como fueron Bolivia, Ecuador y Nicaragua.

Pero ahora le toca a Colombia, le llegó su 'sábado' metafórico. Para este reto, la receta de Chávez es buscar debilitar al país económicamente, y a Uribe políticamente, para que de aquí a 2010 surja un ambiente propicio para un candidato afín a Caracas.

Chávez ha anunciado el "cierre" del comercio bilateral. Porque el comercio favorece a las exportaciones colombianas, este cierre sería un factor muy negativo para la economía de Colombia en los próximos meses. Añadiendo a esto una ya muy probable recesión en Estados Unidos, el futuro económico de Colombia en el mediano plazo luce difícil.

Por otra parte, la dependencia de Venezuela a importaciones colombianas, especialmente de alimentos, es de tal magnitud que un cierre abrupto del comercio sería más desestabilizador para el propio Chávez que para Colombia. En Venezuela, la escasez de productos básicos se torna cada vez más grave, minando la popularidad del gobierno.

Chávez sabe eso muy bien y, para compensar, está buscando reemplazar en el mediano plazo el suministro de estos bienes de Colombia por importaciones de países como Brasil. Todo esto es parte de una muy clara 'guerra avisada' a Colombia.

Sin embargo, la situación es más compleja. Una desaceleración de la economía de Estados Unidos y de la economía global también representaría un peligro para la estabilidad política de Chávez, inclusive en mayor grado de lo que significaría para Colombia. Hoy en día, el petróleo es la fuente de nada menos que el 90 por ciento de los ingresos de divisas a Venezuela.

La posibilidad de que, con un desplome de los precios del crudo, a Chávez se le acabe su chequera bolivariana se aproxima inexorablemente y, mientras tanto, aumenta exponencialmente el riesgo de que su gobierno, de corte esencialmente militar, busque el clásico enemigo externo para tapar a los cada vez más inmanejables problemas internos.

La historia muestra que esa estrategia suele terminar mal para quien la emplea. Un choque bélico tipo Islas Malvinas / Falklands Islands, hipotéticamente trasladado a La Guajira, presentaría riesgos militares mucho más elevados para Chávez que, por ejemplo, un ensayo de cruce de disparos durante tres días en un lugar remoto de la Sierra del Perijá.

La moraleja de la guerra que en 1982 llevó a la caída de la junta militar argentina es clara: gobierno militar que no sirva para ganar una guerra no sirve para nada.

El escenario de una guerra todavía luce bastante improbable. Sin embargo, una aventura armada de Venezuela hacia Colombia, aun de pequeña escala, y a diferencia de un cese de relaciones comerciales, ya no será una de las 'guerras avisadas' de Chávez.

*Consultor privado, corresponsal de Jane's, Intelligence Review y corresponsal del Financial Times en Venezuela de 2000 hasta 2007

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