Ecuador, Bolivia Call for South American Currency

expatriate says on Dec 10, 2007, 14:32:

I can certainly see Ecuador wanting a different currency than their present US dollar. In a year or two it will be cheaper for them to use dollar bills than to buy toilet paper to get the job done.

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billyb says on Dec 10, 2007, 14:45:

But I would venture to say that any currency based on their economy would be worthless within a year. I would rather have dollars.

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fecherklyn says on Dec 10, 2007, 15:15:

Absolutely pathetic, it really just goes to show how badly equipped these 2 presidents are to govern their countries. It takes more than a few "wouldn't it be nice" ideas to create a common currency. Ask the European Union.

To work, it requires a certain "federation" of economic and financial policies of the countries involved. A "Federated" Central Bank would be required to start which (amongst other things) would have to determine the "bank rates" to be applied to the new currency. Just ask Ireland and Germany what they think about the European Central bank determining the "base rate" of the euro. Their views are diametrically opposed.

So their proposal has no chance....unless Chavez manages to convince Brazil, Chile, and all the rest of S. America to set up a "Common Market & currency". Pigs might fly!

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slguy says on Dec 10, 2007, 15:45:

Evo's got enough problems internally - this is just Chavez talking again, I imagine, except through his puppets this time.

Before you throw me out, make sure I pay my bar tab

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jorgegdiaz says on Dec 10, 2007, 17:27:

so, what would it be?
A meeting of poor people to ask for money?

"To err is human - and to blame it on a computer is even more so."Robert Orben

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miamimike says on Dec 10, 2007, 18:54:

I remember a few short years ago they said the same thing about the Euro--it would never work claimed the Pundits. Now what is the Euro to USD Exchange rate Today around $1.47,,,You never know,,,

"Wait a minute. What did you just say? You're predicting $4-a-gallon gas? That's interesting. I hadn't heard that." -- Feb. 28, 2008 --George W. Bush, Washington, D.C.

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billyb says on Dec 10, 2007, 19:01:

If it looks good to you, buy some Bolivian currency and see how you make out>

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miamimike says on Dec 10, 2007, 19:24:

I have some Euros presently, maybe I'll Buy and Short it(bol&ecuador) if it ever comes about,,,:)

"Wait a minute. What did you just say? You're predicting $4-a-gallon gas? That's interesting. I hadn't heard that." -- Feb. 28, 2008 --George W. Bush, Washington, D.C.

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goin_south says on Dec 11, 2007, 23:16:

bb,,,... better yet: buy some Bolivian Cocaine ... and see how it turns out! jjej

Ciao! Gustav. Bienvenitos, Ike.

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billyb says on Dec 15, 2007, 22:20:

Yes, is this the country youwant to tie your currency to?

Diciembre 15 de 2007

Cuatro regiones de Bolivia declaran su "autonomía de facto"


Foto: AFP
En Santa Cruz planean, entre otras cosas, tener su propia moneda cuando empiece a regir su autonomía.
Información relacionada
Morales celebra proyecto de Constitución boliviana con multitudinario desfile Sin policías ni militares en las calles y en un ambiente de celebración, la rica región de Santa Cruz y otros tres departamentos opositores se declararon "libres del centralismo de La Paz".

Además de Santa Cruz, Tarija, Beni y Pando también firmaron este sábado sus declaraciones autonómicas en rechazo al proyecto de Constitución impulsado por Morales, anticipando así una mayor polarización en este país marcado por el racismo y la lucha política que podría dirimirse el próximo año con varios referendos en camino.

La autonomía cruceña crea un órgano legislativo, reconoce la
figura de un gobernador y da a la región el poder de manejar las
tierras. También crea una fuerza policial propia, competencias de
autogobierno y regulará a los medios, según el texto acordado.

Doña Teresa y sus dos hijos llegaron desde una barriada a vender
camisetas y sombreros con la inscripción "­Santa Cruz, autónomo",
horas antes de una asamblea popular en la que las autoridades
planeaban anunciar el nuevo régimen autónomo que después someterán a referendo entre la población local.

Ella no sabe lo que la eventual autonomía traerá a su familia, pero ha logrado vender las camisetas y juntado un dinero extra para las fiestas de Navidad.

Las autoridades de Santa Cruz apuntalan las autonomías basadas en los resultados de un referendo y el apoyo de un cabildo popular que la respaldó el año pasado, mientras el Gobierno considera ilegal la aprobación del estatuto e inconstitucional una eventual autonomía de facto.

Entretanto, en La Paz, campesinos e indígenas leales al gobierno organizaron cortes de ruta para mostrar su rechazo a los proyectos autonómicos y aislar a los capitalinos.

''Ellos (los líderes opositores) son soberbios, no estamos de
acuerdo (en) cómo manejan las cosas y no pasarán de aquí'', dijo a una emisora local Mirian Núñez, dirigente campesina de San Julián, una región agrícola leal al Gobierno.

Los líderes cruceños aseguran que su estatuto no es divisionista. ''No se trata de federalismo, es una autonomía radical'', dijo el abogado Juan Carlos Urenda, uno de los ideólogos de la autonomía.

Pero ni Urenda ni otros líderes opositores saben cómo ensamblar
su proyecto con el estado y la Carta Magna aprobada por una
Constituyente y que pende de ratificarse en una consulta popular.

''Esperamos que se dé un pacto con el Estado'', apuntó.

Gabriel Paz, un funcionario de la prefectura (gobernación), aseguró que la autonomía traerá ''más modernidad a Santa Cruz'' frente a la ''Constitución excluyente de Morales''.

El vicepresidente �lvaro García afirmó el jueves que el estatuto
autonómico es ilegal y separatista y calificó como una ''aberración
jurídica'' las regulaciones migratorias internas que propone.

Aseguró que la tierra ''es de todos y debe ser normada por el
Estado''.

El proyecto constitucional del gobierno propone llevar a un
referendo los latifundios de los que hay muchos en esta región
agroexportadora, que también reúne a las principales petroleras que operan en el país.

Antes de declararse autonóma, Santa Cruz había levantado previamente una huelga de hambre que mantenían alrededor de 700 personas en la plaza de armas de la ciudad.

De otro lado, un explosivo estalló hoy en uno de los pisos de la Corte de Justicia de la ciudad boliviana de Santa Cruz y causó destrozos en una de sus salas para audiencias, informaron varios canales de la televisión local.

El explosivo detonó, al parecer, en el quinto o sexto piso de la
Corte hasta donde llegaron varias unidades policiales y de bomberos para investigar lo sucedido.

Según testimonios recogidos por los medios, podría tratarse de
una bomba molotov, cuya explosión provocó un enorme susto en el
personal de la Corte de Justicia, que fue desalojada.

Los agentes de la policía ocuparon las instalaciones para realizar sus investigaciones aunque todavía no han dado un informe oficial al respecto.

SANTA CRUZ
AFP- AP -

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billyb says on Dec 15, 2007, 23:35:

Sat Dec 15, 2:47 PM ET



SANTA CRUZ (AFP) - Bolivian President Evo Morales met European diplomats about possibly mediating a crisis between the government and autonomy-seeking provinces amid fears of civil unrest.

Morales spoke with ambassadors from the European Union late Friday in La Paz, his spokesman Alex Contreras said Saturday, as the country's four wealthiest provinces prepared to announce plans to break away from central government control.

"There was an exchange of views and (discussion of) the possibility that they could be monitors of a possible dialogue with the provinces and President Evo Morales," Contreras told local press of the meeting.

The European ambassadors passed on to Morales views of the leaders of the rebel provinces, and Morales told them his government was willing to launch a dialogue, according to Contreras.

"It was a positive meeting," he said, adding it was crucial to establish a dialogue that could reach a compromise to ease the mounting crisis.

The army was placed on alert and extra police deployed before pro-autonomy demonstrations scheduled for Saturday in the eastern states of Santa Cruz, Tarija, Beni and Pando, in which the governors were to formally declare greater self-rule.

The regional protests coincide with a rally in the main square in La Paz, in the president's Andean stronghold, where members of the Constitutional Assembly will ceremonially deliver the new constitution to Morales. The document would still need to be approved in a referendum to enter into effect.

The pro-Morales majority approved the new constitution last weekend over a boycott of opposition legislators after moving the meeting to the Andean city of Oruro, another Morales stronghold, to avoid street protests.

The new constitution is recognized by neither the regional governments nor the right-wing opposition to Morales' leftist government.

Morales said the autonomy statutes were illegal, and that the army would guarantee Bolivia's territorial integrity.

The regional leaders are also protesting Morales's moves to redistribute much of the eastern provinces' wealth to the poor Andean highlands.

"The armed forces, and the Bolivian people, are here to make sure that the country never disintegrates," Morales said Thursday.

"The autonomy plans seek to divide Bolivia, but the unity of the country is not up for debate."

Defense Minister Walker San Miguel has ordered the army to be ready to protect public buildings if necessary, and 400 extra police have been sent to Santa Cruz -- the country's economic heartland and opposition bastion with a population of 1.5 million. He has ruled out a state of emergency, however.

The four rebel provinces -- out of the nine that make up Bolivia -- account for around two-thirds of the total gross domestic product and are home to a more than a third of the country's 8.5 million people.

Many of their inhabitants are mixed-race descendants of Spanish colonials, in contrast to the indigenous population that forms the majority in the poorer mountain regions.

Morales is the country's first indigenous leader and has promised to reapportion the country's wealth to better benefit the people of the uplands whose support brought him to power.

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slguy says on Dec 16, 2007, 07:16:

Bolivia has a long history of presidents leaving office before their term ends. I'm thinking Evo is just another in this tradition.

Before you throw me out, make sure I pay my bar tab

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billyb says on Dec 16, 2007, 10:45:

slguy, what is the make up of the Bolivian army and its officer corps, do you have an idea?

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john_stark says on Dec 16, 2007, 11:29:

The whole thing clearly depends on the army and whether they will step up for Evo Knievil. I thought there was a PBH poster with property in Bolivia? What do they think of the situation?

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slguy says on Dec 16, 2007, 12:25:

I have no idea about the officer corps. I did a quick check- it seems that their army is about 25,000 strong. Fascinating factoid- since voluntary service usually falls short, they have conscription. One number I saw (as of 2005, I believe) says that 40% of their army is under 18 years old- and 50% of these are under 16. Looks like an army of kids, if these numbers are anywhere near accurate.

Interestingly- they have a navy. Interesting in that Bolivia is, of course, landlocked. Their navy patrols Lake Titicaca.

Before you throw me out, make sure I pay my bar tab

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john_stark says on Dec 16, 2007, 13:10:

I guess their navy dreams of future glory when Bolivia has a Pacific coast again.

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slguy says on Dec 16, 2007, 14:46:

apparently.

Before you throw me out, make sure I pay my bar tab

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billyb says on Dec 27, 2007, 15:06:

Bolivia: The Military Angle


Stratfor
Infosearch:
José Cadenas
Analyst
Bureau Chief
USA
Research Dept.
La Nueva Cuba
December 25, 2007


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Summary

A declaration of autonomy by four of Bolivia's lowland departments Dec. 15 does not appear to have particularly strong military footing.

Analysis

Four of Bolivia's wealthy lowland departments -- Santa Cruz, Tarija, Beni and Pando -- declared autonomy from La Paz and President Evo Morales' government Dec. 15. At this point, it appears that the military balance is strongly in favor of La Paz.

Though small and composed largely of conscripts (of 34,800 active duty soldiers, 25,000 are conscripted), the Bolivian army includes some contingents trained under U.S. supervision to conduct counternarcotics operations. Morales, in other words, does command some capable and operationally experienced military units. Meanwhile, there has been increasing cooperation with the Venezuelan military in terms of training and support.

And while, at first glance ,Bolivia's continued military use of horse cavalry might seem humorous, that supply of horses could actually prove useful not only in the terrain of the lowland foothills but also as a tool for riot control in the lowland cities. La Paz also has reserves it can call up. Although it is not clear how well-drilled these reserves are, their sheer numbers would be useful should Morales choose to make a show of force in lowland streets.

Even more important than the Bolivian military's operational capability is its loyalty. Morales seems to enjoy the loyalty of most of the Bolivian military -- even in the secessionist lowlands. This is not insignificant, since half the country's 10 army divisions are headquartered in the secessionist departments. Thus, it currently appears that La Paz has the capability to physically prevent the lowlands from doing more than making unenforceable unilateral declarations (though concerted armed resistance in the lowlands could become a significant challenge for La Paz).

Meanwhile, there is also the outside possibility that a fellow Bolivarian, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, will provide military assistance to Morales. In fact, its quite possible that Chavez has had vivid fantasies of such a demonstration of Bolivarian unity, and some in Bolivia are already saying that Venezuela is "on stand-by."



Even if the Bolivian air force were in the hands of the lowlanders, it is not clear that they could actually control the airspace in any meaningful way. Morales no doubt controls runways that could accommodate Venezuela's C-130s and civilian airliners. Venezuelan troops could quickly arrive in Bolivia, especially if they could rely on the Bolivian military for support, transportation and supplies. However, there is no way Venezuelan planes could get to Bolivia without the acquiescence of any number of countries -- countries, for the most part, unlikely to be particularly inclined to assist Chavez in this regard. (Being denied permission to fly over Brazil alone, for example, would nearly double the distance Venezuela's pilots would have to cover.)

Nevertheless, should enough countries accede to such a request from Caracas, Venezuelan forces would be a significant addition to Morales' already favorable military position. It would also be a political coup for both La Paz and Caracas. Any meaningful alteration of that dynamic will likely have to come from the intervention of other Latin American neighbors.

Meanwhile, Morales has explicitly stated he will not employ the armed forces, and he currently appears focused on a negotiated settlement (especially so long as no violence breaks out in the secessionist departments). No doubt the Bolivian military is already planning for other contingencies, no matter how committed Morales is to that negotiated settlement. And should push come to shove, La Paz appears to hold the upper hand.

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