Economist Warns Latin America;Prepare For Day When the Boom Goes Bust

tomtom33 says on Apr 5, 2008, 05:07:

What booms, busts. And Colombia has been booming.

Of course the corollary is what busts, recovers.

goin_south says on Apr 5, 2008, 06:03:

I think it's gonna be awhile, before any bust, with all that money goin into the panama canal remodeling/explosion... and with so many gringos..... goin________south

why can't the freakin Chung King Chinese just LEAVE THE FREAKN DOLLY LLAMA and Tibet ... ALONE!

miamimike says on Apr 5, 2008, 06:12:

TT--true but if Colombia had a Bad Bear Stern Type meltdown like we had a few weeks ago that could have led to a Cascading effect to other banks, what Happens? What kind of bailout could be expected? We saw what happened to Argentina less then a decade ago with their meltdown and only by stiffing many international investors were they able to recover, if can call it a true recovery. Sam e true when Mexico had its meltdown in 1994; http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1272/is_n2600_v123/ai_16885391

Argentina's Peso crisis: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/1721061.stm

Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we." GW Bush

tomtom33 says on Apr 5, 2008, 06:21:

I am not saying that things could not get very bad for awhile. They could.

miamimike says on Apr 5, 2008, 06:27:

True,,,

Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we." GW Bush

tomtom33 says on Apr 5, 2008, 06:56:

Yes, there is poverty. But what do you call a doubling of the Colombian stock market in 2005 and another doubling in 2006? That is my definition of a boom.

miamimike says on Apr 5, 2008, 06:58:

american says on Saturday April 5th, 2008 6:48:

like normail MM does not know what he is talkin about...colombia has never had a boom 40% of people in colombia live in poverty..get real

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LOL--London Male, if I were you I would pay more attention to your Spelling or is NORMAIL part of your everyday vocabulary? Please enlighten us,,,

Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we." GW Bush

miamimike says on Apr 5, 2008, 07:13:

London male--please go back to bed AND GET SOME NEEDED SLEEP! Your questions do not merit a response,,,

Entertain us please by telling us some more stories on how your wife's sister and mother are hitting on you,,,LOL

Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we." GW Bush

MaFe says on Apr 5, 2008, 07:38:

goin_south says on Saturday April 5th, 2008 6:03:

"I think it's gonna be awhile, before any bust, with all that money goin into the panama canal remodeling/explosion... and with so many gringos..... goin________south"

And they just keep goingh south!

"No comment" is a splendid expression. I am using it again and again." -Winston Churchill

tomtom33 says on Apr 5, 2008, 07:59:

I realize that I probably shouldn't bother. However,...

Wages are going up all the time, and 100% employment is not desirable. Full employment is defined as 95%. That is where the US is now. And the chicken littles are frothing at the mouth.

gringoloid says on Apr 5, 2008, 07:59:

pow wow and mike..............your're both right and i see your points. pw, your're doing a macro thing, and mike is doing a micro thing. no need for a disagreement on this issue.

it's almost shocking how much real estate costs here in BTA compared to MDE or other parts of colombia. for little slivers of the population like stock holders and real estate developers i'm sure it has been a boom.

and mike, i hope your link is correct and we have a drop is some real estate prices here in BTA. I'm hoping things will be a whole lot different in june of 2009. I think a used car will be cheaper at that time also.

tejasmarcos says on Apr 5, 2008, 08:01:

i am busy preparing guys......

"Wages are going up all the time, and 100% employment is not desirable. Full employment is defined as 95%. That is where the US is now"

- i am afraid to know the true unemployment stats right now and throughout this year.

god is in your head

tomtom33 says on Apr 5, 2008, 08:06:

Yup, they are getting worse. Should I be stocking up on MREs?

gringoloid says on Apr 5, 2008, 08:20:

i'm telling you guys that this is a great moneymaking time if you play it right.

you could wind up 5 years from now with 30-40 times the money you have now.

i don't know enough about the futures market to be able to play this properly, but if you're on the right side of things, this will be a real blessing.

tejasmarcos says on Apr 5, 2008, 08:22:

tell us more gl.....

god is in your head

gringoloid says on Apr 5, 2008, 08:47:

marc............i give my opinions, but nobody believes me, including GIB. Him and I are far, far apart.

this credit bubble hasn't even begun to burst yet; credit cards are next.

oil prices are in a permanent upwards spiral, (my opinion). U.S. Dept of Energy says a barrel will be $25 in 2010. (We'll see who is right on this; the govt or the conspiracy theorist)

all recessions since 1973 have cost of oil as their root cause.

look at people around the world already rioting because of food shortages. Raay could be right about Brazil and all of their soybean exports. I've been studying this for the past couple days.

to me, the Fed's moves of recent times are like a final stage drug addict shooting up. they're pouring money into the system which caused all this trouble in the first place.

the beliefs here are that 'what goes down, goes back up", i don't thing it is going to be that easy this time. it will, but i will be near death in my 70s when that happens.

gringoloid says on Apr 5, 2008, 08:49:

but if you're on the wrong side of this, you're going to get creamed like almost everyone did in the 70s.

miamimike says on Apr 5, 2008, 11:21:

U.S. Dept of Energy says a barrel will be $25 in 2010--------------With world demand for Oil in countries such as China and India having their Industries cranked up full blast with an insatiable demand for Petro as they now do, I don't see how prices could drop to $25 in a few years. And these two countries will demand much more Oil as their consumers move up the Ladder and buy Cars and more cars.

Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we." GW Bush

mranderson says on Apr 5, 2008, 11:31:

what if I'm already broke? Is there anyway I can get on the right side?

gringoloid says on Apr 5, 2008, 12:35:

A conspiracy theorist is born: Miami Mike!!!

All that a CTer is is someone who does not take the official explanation for an event.

You're darn right oil won't be at that level............more like $150 a barrel just around the corner.

miamimike says on Apr 5, 2008, 12:41:

A conspiracy theorist is born: Miami Mike!!!
---------------------------------------------------------------

JIJI-My true calling realized,,,

Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we." GW Bush

aztec says on Apr 5, 2008, 13:25:

american, have you ever had an economics course? If not you should take one because you are woefully lacking in knowledge of what makes free markets work.

tomtom33 says on Apr 5, 2008, 14:56:

Where did anyone in the US Dept. of Energy ever project that oil would be $25 per barrel in 2010? Can anyone provide a source for this?

tomtom33 says on Apr 5, 2008, 15:04:

I just did a little browsing on the DOE site. There is a projection of $74.03 per barrel in 2010 in 2006 dollars per barrel at http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/forecasting.html.

No where did I see $25 per barrel.

tomtom33 says on Apr 5, 2008, 15:24:

The unemployment stats show 5.1% in March: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm. My guess is that it will be worse in April. 5.2%??

Of course the government lies and these figures are not correct, some say. Hey some. Show me some better numbers, and explain the methodology behind their collection. Those BLS statisticians are some pretty sharp people.

robi666 says on Apr 5, 2008, 15:35:

The article do not tell anything. And the good luck part... very professional.

Every few months there is someone who predicts an imminent burst.
One day in 30 years, someone will be right. Or maybe in three months.
The guys that were telling real estate prices were too high two years ago or even one year ago, they are not here to tell "I was wrong".

Colombia economy did not go up 4%. Almost double that.
Colombia is doing well, inflation is a normal part of the story. I think the Central Bank should lower the interest rate, but minimum salary is going up more than inflation and employment figures are getting better.

The economist can say what they want. It is like playing lotto. Here is my ticket. The same of several months ago.

Price of finca raiz will double in the next five years (Medellin).
Net income for the owner from rent will be 3% (down from 7%) in 5 years.
Yearly inflation in Colombia will be between 4% and 8% in the next five years.
Salario minimo will increase more than inflation every year.
GDP growth rate in between 4% and 9%.
Peroni beer price will follow Euro inflation and Euro exchange toward pesos: it will cost 250 pesos more than Club Colombia in 5 years.

"I am a citizen of the most beautiful nation on earth. A nation whose laws are harsh yet simple, a nation that never cheats, which is immense and without borders, where life is lived in the present."

tejasmarcos says on Apr 5, 2008, 15:46:

tomtom - they collect that data based on the number of people who file for unemployment, thus the collectable data.

those figures do not count the people who never file for unemployment nor does it count the informal income sector. the service sector right now is taking a beating due to people spending less $$.

i bet the official unemployment figure is in the low double digits. 12-14% would be my guess.

15-18% by year's end.

god is in your head

gringoloid says on Apr 5, 2008, 15:54:

everything you need to know about the 'real numbers' can be found here. CPI, GDP, unemployment, commodity prices, etc

here you can see how Vice President Dick Cheney, ("deficits don't matter"), along with all of the Bush elites, in violation of the Patriot Act, sent their own personal dough to Europe over the last few years and invested in euros and gold bullion. Cheney alone sent $25 million.

http://www.shadowstats.com/

gringoloid says on Apr 5, 2008, 16:00:

robi, the only disagreement we have is that i'm speaking of the usa and you're speaking strictly of colombia. you have no money in dollars where i have 95% of mine in dollars. but soon to change.

i'm not going to think about buying real estate in colombia until the end of 2009.

if you are correct, then i'm going to be out of a lot of money.

tejasmarcos says on Apr 5, 2008, 16:01:

"here you can see how Vice President Dick Cheney, ("deficits don't matter"), along with all of the Bush elites, in violation of the Patriot Act, sent their own personal dough to Europe over the last few years and invested in euros and gold bullion. Cheney alone sent $25 million"

- can you post that info? it seems you have to have $175 membership to view that tidbit.

god is in your head

gringoloid says on Apr 5, 2008, 16:06:

yea, i'll see if i can find it elsewhere..............i know it is all over the internet.

tejasmarcos says on Apr 5, 2008, 16:08:

that is pretty damaging info if true.

god is in your head

gringoloid says on Apr 5, 2008, 16:11:

you can do a search on Kiplingers Magazine and that is very detailed in all of his investments................and i want to tell you, he is betting seriously against the dollar.

here is another link:
http://www.worldproutassembly.org/archives/2006/07/the_veeps_curio.htm...

this is a man that is not putting his money where his mouth is.

tejasmarcos says on Apr 5, 2008, 16:17:

that's pretty good info gl.

someone needs to put the crosshairs on that bunch. and i'm not trying to be funny.

god is in your head

gringoloid says on Apr 5, 2008, 16:22:

the problem is that if you or i were to do this, we would be arrested under the Patriot Act.

same thing happened in the 30s in Germany and Japan..............the elites put all their money into gold in Switzerland, and then after the war bought everything up for pennies.

robi666 says on Apr 5, 2008, 16:54:

"robi, the only disagreement we have is that i'm speaking of the usa and you're speaking strictly of colombia."

Well, I was speaking about the article which this thread was about.

"I am a citizen of the most beautiful nation on earth. A nation whose laws are harsh yet simple, a nation that never cheats, which is immense and without borders, where life is lived in the present."

cali373 says on Apr 5, 2008, 18:01:

Sorry folks, "american" is correct. Colombia GDP has been growing but booming, PLEASE. Ireland has been booming, Colombia just has a spurt of investment.

However full employement is considered 95%. It may be economic technobabble but it makes sense if you study it.

tomtom33, it could also be a bubble. But I do not think it is. A booming stock market does not equate to a booming economy . Contrary to the current world economic system a stock market is not needed so that an economy can grow. Investment, education and capital are needed, and all that can be attained without a stock market.

Also there are wages but in economics there are "real wages". and real wages per capita have actually gone down in the US. In Colombia well, I cannot imagine it is better but I honestly do not know.

I AM ALSO BETTING AGAINST THE DOLLAR, hey it is not personal , you wanted globalization, well now live with it.

Smile if you are a thinker!

cali373 says on Apr 5, 2008, 18:21:

robi666

There is no other ruler besides the sea, huh

Smile if you are a thinker!

robi666 says on Apr 5, 2008, 18:25:

True :) Did you read any of his books?

"I am a citizen of the most beautiful nation on earth. A nation whose laws are harsh yet simple, a nation that never cheats, which is immense and without borders, where life is lived in the present."

cali373 says on Apr 5, 2008, 18:57:

No, but I wish. unfortunately I do not have the time.

Smile if you are a thinker!

Rubito says on Apr 5, 2008, 19:29:

They don't have wages in Colombia they have salaries, and they are growing quite a bit faster than inflation.

---Violence is the price of freedom.---

robi666 says on Apr 5, 2008, 20:56:

Salario minimo went always faster than inflation during Uribe era.

"I am a citizen of the most beautiful nation on earth. A nation whose laws are harsh yet simple, a nation that never cheats, which is immense and without borders, where life is lived in the present."

miamimike says on Apr 5, 2008, 22:13:

TT-If that was the same Bush DOE Gang forecasting $74 per barrel Oil in a few years I don't know if I would have much faith in that gang! Weren't they the same crew who said in 2004 "Iraq's Oil" will be paying for the Cost of the War in short time so it won't cost us much" so what happened there? Seems we are still spending $12 Billion Monthly approximately 4 years later with NO end in sight,,,,


The Residual costs of a Lifetime of care for our many Injured Vets in the VA will add Billions not yet factored into the overall cost of the war,,,Many of these Young Vets suffer Severe head trauma as well as spinal cord injuries and this is some of the most expensive care known to man,,,if its done correctly and nothing less then the Best will suffice for our Veterans,,,

Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we." GW Bush

christobeldawg says on Apr 6, 2008, 00:19:

RASCIST

admittedly, arriving can feel great too

gringoloid says on Apr 6, 2008, 01:46:

markantony..................me a leftist? where in the hell would you get an idea like that?

Frank Rizzo says on Apr 6, 2008, 09:10:

Markanthony...I have to agree with you on most the....white men from the USA, makes me sick.......the state of affairs in the US.

miamimike says on Apr 6, 2008, 19:25:

Brainwashed and illiterate. The ole double whammy.
=================================================================

That's the Infirmity that whammed GW Bush,,,LOL

Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we." GW Bush

tomtom33 says on Apr 7, 2008, 00:19:

Hey Mike, that's no way to talk about your hero.

miamimike says on Apr 7, 2008, 01:51:

TT--Oh Boo Hoo Boo Hoo Hoo---LOL

Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we." GW Bush

tomtom33 says on Apr 7, 2008, 04:40:

God, you are nuts!

morphus says on Apr 7, 2008, 07:41:

I don't think so. Many countries have to sell their products to the U.S. Although, there was a small country that was boycotted, I forget the name that sustained itself without any trade/aid from other countries.

gringoloid says on Apr 7, 2008, 09:40:

you're darn right pow wow, that is capitalism in practice..................nothing would make a capitalist happier than to quit footing the bill in the amount of billions for bottomless 'humanitarian' pork barrel projects abroad.

gringoloid says on Apr 7, 2008, 10:16:

In fact pw, you have no further to look than out the window of the bus you drive around london all day.

people wrongly blame jews, illuminati, jesuits, vatican, freemasons, bilderbergs, council on foreign relations, etc., for the worlds problems.

The real villains are the royal households of dynastic european families who own the Bank of England, the US Federal Reserve, World Bank, the Intl Monetary Fund, and all their associations, and most of the worlds intelligence agencies.

England is in fact a financial oligarchy run by the "Crown" which refers to the "City of London" not the Queen. The City of London is run by the Bank of England, a private corporation.

The City of London is a sovereign state located in the heart of greater London. As the "Vatican of the financial world," the City is not subject to British law. In fact, the bankers dictate to the British Parliament.

morphus says on Apr 7, 2008, 10:21:

I say we go back to living in caves.