Dollar hits new low against Colombian peso and Brazilian Real, wonderful!!!!

badboy says on Jun 18, 2008, 14:14:

you guys need to try mexico if you want a stable exchange. just avoid border towns and you'll be safe. the women and food are great.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

chester says on Jun 18, 2008, 14:18:

how much is`a gallon of gas now, in pesos?

0 funny, 0 helpful.

badboy says on Jun 18, 2008, 14:30:

world: guadalajara year round. i go to mazatlan in the winter to escape these brutally cold california temps. lol mazatlan is 80-90 then. summer way too hot and humid. if chester was referring to mexico gas is roughly $8 pesos per liter or $3.00 per gallon. mexico just froze the price of 150 food items for 6 months!

0 funny, 0 helpful.

SanDiegoSurf says on Jun 18, 2008, 14:49:

With the massive number of IOU's (ie treasuries) held by Chinese, there is no incentive to strengthen the dollar. We now have no choice but to inflate by increasing the money supply (effectively devaluing the dollar) to meet out of our current debt obligations.

Yes mexico does subsidize many consumer staples including manteca (lard) and tortillas. Just wish the girls didn't eat so much.. Mazatlan brings back fond memories though and nice having direct flights from Artic LAX and Tijuana during spring break/semana santa.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Simon says on Jun 18, 2008, 15:32:

Way to go Peso!!

HERE'S SIMON!!!!

0 funny, 0 helpful.

morphus says on Jun 18, 2008, 15:36:

"Way to go Peso!!"

Simon, you earn dollars too, don't you?

0 funny, 0 helpful.

GregYohn says on Jun 18, 2008, 15:40:

Thank you GEORGE W!

12VOIP.com gives free calls to Colombia.Greg

0 funny, 0 helpful.

SanDiegoSurf says on Jun 18, 2008, 15:50:

re mexico many gorditas in the north. they are cuter and skinnier in the south: yucatan / veracruz. weather is good in guadalajara and tapatias are nice, it is a cosmopolitan city but air pollution is a problem, think mex city - DF only smaller/friendlier.

All currencies will lose value, but countries with poor commodity base relative to GNP (like USA) will fare worse. Colombia looks like a reasonable bet since they have healthy mining, coal, crude, and agricultural production. They produce most of the essential staples, that are always in demand in good times and bad.

So I am guessing but I think the forex will flatline at the end of the year in the 1500 to 1530 range. Also keep in mind historically the peso was quite a bit stronger in the past trading at 1520 almost 10 yrs ago, sept 1998. And thoughout 96 it was trading in the 1000 to 1100 range. So low 1500's par for the course given the current environment. It is only within the past six yrs the peso took a hit.

In a nutshell, the long term the cycle usually reverts to the mean which means more peso strength going forward. I would not recommend playing the currency market but rather keeping your money in hard assets as they will appreciate, or at least hold there value, in an inflammatory environment.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Joel y Luza says on Jun 18, 2008, 15:55:

You're right Greg!! Thanks W!!! I am going to go out on a limb, and say that the lack of his all star team's response to Katrina is a perfect parallel to his response to our current economic woes.....NOT A DAMNED THING DONE but make sure his buddy's pockets get lined with cash.

I loved it when housing was running up.. he was the biggest cheerleader of the "creative financing" "I want to create an ownership society where every American can own his own home"....Now.. no substantive comment or plan from his mouth..If the man had not made such large tax cuts, and was a bit more responsible with this country's resources, (including commiting our military to over 5 years of war), we would be a lot better off...

0 funny, 0 helpful.

SanDiegoSurf says on Jun 18, 2008, 16:07:

invest in no money down real estate and you are helping people live the american dream.. invest in oil exploration and you are an evil speculator manipulating the market.

The fed hates it when people invest in commodities because the rapid appreciation clearly shows how quickly they are debasing our currency.

Inflation is a hidden tax, they will try play down as much as possible, at least until Nov. But remember the next time you fill up at the gas station, oil isn't more expensive, rather the dollar is worth less the last time you filled up.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

someguy says on Jun 18, 2008, 16:54:

This dollar dive really bites. And I was all set to go off to Colombia, but can't swing it financially now. It sounds godawful expensive anyway, especially for lodging.. Weird, but I had ruled out Mexico because I heard it was too expensive and packed with US and Canadian snowbirds

Hey, badboy, tell us more about Mexico as a place to go see and spend some time. I live in northern California & it damn sure would be cheaper to get there.

Cheers all.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

badboy says on Jun 18, 2008, 17:14:

mexico v. colombia: this is probably heading for the dumpster but here goes: can't speak very authoritatively on colombianas. been there twice for roughly 60 days total. most guys think on average they are much better than mexican women. they do seem to try very hard to look good. this obsession with appearance serves them well. mexicanas aren't so concerned with their appearance. guadalajara, mazatlan, etc. have quite a few women with european blood-this gives them higher cheekbones, a more angular face that most white guys are used to. in many parts of mexico the women are far more indian with rounder facial features and more compact bodies. mexico has far more women who caucasians would find beautiful simply because they have a far larger population. educated mexican women are usually repulsed by machista men, mexican or gringo.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

morphus says on Jun 19, 2008, 05:15:

WorldEditor, of course! Thats what I was asking Simon.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

b bruce says on Jun 19, 2008, 13:10:

Joel y Luza! The Katrina bitching has all but been worn out. Look at the devestation going on with the flooding in the mid west. Do you see those people just sitting there waiting for some one to carry them to safety? Do you see them looting stores for tennis shoes and murdering each other? No. A little bit of pride goes a long way.It works from the bottom up, not the top down. That is why we have city and state governments! The city of New Orleans (MOST CORRUPT IN THE NATION) did very little to help it's own people. Mayor Ray Nagan should have been put in jail for neglegence. You had half of a city that has been on the federal dole for so long they didn't know how to help themselves. Never had to, Uncle Suger provided them with food stamps and welfare. I wouldn't worry about the value of the dollar for very much longer. The Bushman has called for the drilling of our own oil and natural gas resources. The congressmen and senators are getting bitch slapped by those who vote for them. So now as the American people are getting more angry and more organized against the high prices of fuel and food something will give. The liberal dems and environmentalists are painted in to a corner. We will begin to drill our own oil and natural gas, mine our own coal, and build new refineries and nuclear power plants. Unfortunately it took $5.00 gallon of gas to wake the sleeping giant. Common sense will win the day.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

sloopskipper says on Jun 20, 2008, 11:24:

Those cheering "Go Peso" should read http://colombiareports.com/2008/06/20/sinking-dollar-is-causing-hunger...

0 funny, 0 helpful.

morphus says on Jun 21, 2008, 10:09:

Or maybe Colombia should get the printing press running again.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

sloopskipper says on Jun 21, 2008, 19:18:

Rubito says on Jun 20, 2008, 19:15: flag

"That's called not being able to see the forest for the trees.

Bottom line, a currency getting stronger has a downside but its a GOOD THING in more ways than not for a nation. It means they are finally growing up. :P"

And what are the good (tangible) things for the Colombian people?

0 funny, 0 helpful.

podborski says on Jun 22, 2008, 05:47:

a strong currency is generally associated with reduced inflation, and that is a great benefit to people on fixed incomes such as pensioners and wage earners with little bargaining power.

Inflation (devaluing a currency) benefits those that have a lot of hard assets (land, buildings, businesses), especially if they have big loans tied to those assets.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

rocinante says on Jun 22, 2008, 06:43:

"We will begin to drill our own oil and natural gas, mine our own coal, and build new refineries and nuclear power plants. Unfortunately it took $5.00 gallon of gas to wake the sleeping giant. Common sense will win the day." b bruce

I'm all for it - but please educate me as to how this will lower US fuel prices?

I get tired of the bandwagon screamers who hear something and parrot it again and again.

Anyone can address this not just Bruce. How will doing our own drilling accomplish anything more than just reducing our dependency on a foreign supplier of a globally priced commodity?

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

0 funny, 0 helpful.

rocinante says on Jun 22, 2008, 06:43:

Katrina:

Handouts - for WHAT? 3000 NYers got murdered on 9/11. Their families all got millions. For WHAT? Why is anyone's murder, flood, termite situation different than anyone else’s?

"Thanks George W"? I feel sorry for the guys who think that A: The US President actually runs the US and B: tyhat the President is the US Federal Reserve.

Even if Bush could tie his own shoes PBH'ers have no clue as to what a US president is able to do or not do.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

0 funny, 0 helpful.

rocinante says on Jun 22, 2008, 06:43:

To add to Pod.... A strongER currency means prosperity. In Colombia's case it means increased global confidence, increased safety, increased political structure, increased economy. Why is this so hard for the "Change two entire countries because I'm getting screwed at the ATM" guys to understand?

Uribe is getting ready to AID these exporters. WHY? Because the peso is going to 1000 in the next few years and he KNOWS it. He’s the President and he went to Harvard. Colombia could do a good deal to “Peg" the COP. But why? Why? Why, oh you empty complainers who never back up anything you say? Why do you think (2 months ago) that the dollar is going to fetch north of 2000 one day? You never say why.

Why should Colombia take action to weaken the peso against the USD? For you?

Sloopie I don't direct this at you… but you guys, all of you citing the 12,000 exporters who lost their job, citing old ladies at the market in Lowell's town mulling over the mangos complaining about how the exchange rate is screwing Colombia... Yeah right.

You all make me sick. Colombia costs more vs the US dollar because it is no longer some dangerous backwater wild west country. Colombia is beginning to compete in the word financial markets. When foreign investment starts coming on the equity side you will see Colombia one day competing with India’s service industry.

You want good exchange and cheap everything for your dollar and for that to last 20 years? Come to Colombia when the FARC and Escobar were running the streets, when the exchange rate was high and you were afraid. There was no Parque Lleras as it is today.

It's too late now and you cannot reverse an entire country's growth because it interferes with the cost of your vacation. Find another country or get a bigger wallet.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

0 funny, 0 helpful.

tejasmarcos says on Jun 22, 2008, 07:19:

Rocinante for Colombian Tourism Secretary, 2009.

trying to walk a straight line on sour mash and cheap wine...

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Lowell says on Jun 22, 2008, 07:36:

rocinante, please do not use me in you posts unless you info is correct. don't know where you got the idea i said that. i'm still living well. to bad others aren't like they used to. petty crime is up in cartago. why? because there's many common people who can't afford the increase in the price of COMMON goods. If need be and honest man may steal just to feed his family.

Alfred E. Newman. "What. Me Worry?"

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Lowell says on Jun 22, 2008, 07:40:

Oh yea, Less dangerous? NO! More dangerous now than 5 years before when the Mafia didn't allow the little gutter slimeballs to conduct themselves in the manner that they do now.

Alfred E. Newman. "What. Me Worry?"

0 funny, 0 helpful.

rocinante says on Jun 22, 2008, 08:00:

"rocinante, please do not use me in you posts unless you info is correct. don't know where you got the idea i said that. ..." lowell


In a thread about the COP vs the USD (http://poorbuthappy.com/colombia/post/100-usd--189900-cop/), as usual we had people bitching about the rising of the Colombian economy, namely the peso. Here, in this "COP is gaining and USD is dropping" if one reads the entire thread they will see more clearly than just this quote that you attribute strong Peso/Weak dollar to inflation and the people who are benefiting from a strong peso. You speculate that it is the rich and not the country as a whole.

"In my barrio and when I talk to people around town, they're becoming very unsettled about the rise in the price of goods, the problem with the peso and the knowledge that the wealthy are getting more wealthy. Maybe if things get bad enough there'll be a revolution against the very peope who are gaining at this time." Lowell


I responded then, "The only ones starting a revolution are those getting paid in USD living in Colombia (heavily invested in the US) and the sex tourist who has to alter vacation plans back to Costa Rica.... I highly doubt 2 ladies standing over the chicharon in your barrio are attributing inflation with the rate of the USD to the COP. Probably because they are both financial wizards and understand that in Colombia the current exchange rate with the USD has little to do with Inlfation of thigs they buy every day.... I would venture to guess that EVERY person, in every corner of the globe for the past 50 years would say prices are getting high and the wealthy are getting wealthier. It's just a basic conversation."

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

0 funny, 0 helpful.

rocinante says on Jun 22, 2008, 08:05:

"Oh yea, Less dangerous? NO! More dangerous now than 5 years before when the Mafia didn't allow the little gutter slimeballs to conduct themselves in the manner that they do now." Lowell

I'm not getting into a pissing contest and I almost think I am reading that you think Colombia is more dangerous today than it was 5 years ago? I was talking about the Pablo days - more than 5 years ago but uh...

I still stand by my quote you are addressing "Colombia costs more vs the US dollar because it is no longer some dangerous backwater wild west country. Colombia is beginning to compete in the word financial markets. When foreign investment starts coming on the equity side you will see Colombia one day competing with India’s service industry. "


EDIT: Reading between the lines I'll guess you are talking about just your barrio.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

0 funny, 0 helpful.

sloopskipper says on Jun 22, 2008, 08:09:

Roci, don't worry my friend, I can afford to pay for my vacations. I visited Colombia only one time so far, but it is not a vacation destination for me, and that was not the purpose of my trip.

I never studied economics, but if you consider:

Trade: Exports (2006)--$24.3 billion: petroleum, coal, coffee, flowers, textiles and garments, ferronickel, bananas, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, gold, sugar, cardboard containers, printed material, cement, plastic resins and manufactures, emeralds.

it would seem to me that that more than an 18% increase in the COP/$ (or other currencies) is going to affect more than a couple old ladies trying to sell their mangos, even if they can now buy cheaper toasters.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

rocinante says on Jun 22, 2008, 08:41:

Slopp - numbers don't lie and yes you are correct.

BUT

This reminds me of a thread where a respected poster thought that a US recession would create a mini recession in Colombia - I am not looking up his post and the debate that followed. Although your argument here is strictly cost of Colombian goods to the US consumer, driven higher by exchange rates, the argument on my side is the same: if the price increases, people in the US will always eat bananas and drink coffee...non cyclical staple comodities are pretty much the majority of what Colombia exports to the US. Why do you think this is the most stable and hottest market now and for years to come?

The COP has been gaining steadily on the dollar for 5 years. I post the 3 month chart from February because I am too lazy to go find a 5 year chart - but trust me - it slants in the same direction.



Net result over these 5 years? 12,000 exporters lost their job, stock market is up 1300% unemployment dropped from 20% to 11% inflation is now 4.7% down from 16%, it's a safer country, more jobs.... do I have to go on?

I'm focusing on the big picture and not one industry or one barrio or a few tourists or retirees on a fixed income who didn't do their homework like you did.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

0 funny, 0 helpful.

sloopskipper says on Jun 22, 2008, 10:24:

I don’t dispute anything you say, Roci. Looking at the total picture over the 5 year period you see a stunning success.

But, it all depends on your perspective, needs, and desires. The situation is quite different for someone already invested and living there, compared to someone considering a substantial investment or some clown coming for a week of cheap sex.

Selfish? Maybe, but sometimes ya gotta also look out for #1. Although, even an investment with the current exchange might be prudent. But seeing an effective 18% cost increase in a few months is enough to make one pause to reconsider.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

gringoloid says on Jun 24, 2008, 20:04:

I had access to the internet for only a few minutes a day this past week, so i'm just reading this now. roci, you mention a 4.7% inflation rate, but the updated rate was 5.7% through April.

Now here is where it gets interesting: the CPI in Col for May rose by 0.93% and that is three times higher than May of 2007, probably as a result of surging food prices.

Now this is only one month and certainly not a trend just yet, so it means nothing and it doesn't effect Colombia too much.

But it is ominous if this were to continue into a trend. What does he do to fight inflation? Raise interest rates and make the peso stronger?

I have no answers here, just questions, as I really don't know what is going to happen this time. You may be right when you say things are different this time, ....I dunno, we'll just have to wait and see.

But with the US being the largest export partner, the largest source of foreign direct investment (25%), largest source of remittances, etc...there may be some effect on Colombia but it is too early to tell.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

BillBigD says on Jun 24, 2008, 20:16:

Rubito-When did start going to Colombia?

0 funny, 0 helpful.