Colombian Peso Up

christobeldawg says on Jan 11, 2008, 22:25:

The dollar seems to decline in direct correlation to when I am traveling there.

admittedly, arriving can feel great too

miamimike says on Jan 12, 2008, 00:01:

So Colombia really is getting Shortchanged on the Millions of US Dollars sent for Plan Colombia! Considering the Drastic change from almost 3000 CP a couple years ago and what it is now, looks like a 40% loss(or close to it) in buying Power in Colombia.

"Wait a minute. What did you just say? You're predicting $4-a-gallon gas? ... That's interesting. I hadn't heard that." -- Feb. 28, 2008 --George W. Bush, Washington, D.C.,

scotty says on Jan 12, 2008, 00:23:

gee...wa the dollar ever at 3000? i have been traveling to Cali since 1997 and i think the best i ever saw it was about 2600, and most of the trips it was in the 2100-2300 range, so maybe 1968 isnt really all that bad especially since the dollar is indeed declining.
i start whining when it hits 1500 or less.

Get Rhythm, when you got the blues. Johnny Cash

miamimike says on Jan 12, 2008, 01:40:

I believe it was pretty close to 3000, like 2900 and change! I still consider it a bargain at today's exchange considering my first trip in the mid 90s it was around 600.

"Wait a minute. What did you just say? You're predicting $4-a-gallon gas? ... That's interesting. I hadn't heard that." -- Feb. 28, 2008 --George W. Bush, Washington, D.C.,

Waterdawg says on Jan 12, 2008, 03:56:

I don't think Colombian economy could stand 1500 .. Destroy any improvement in exports !

Ctg Bound says on Jan 12, 2008, 04:08:

miamimike, I don't think it matters mostly what the peso exchange rate is with Plan Colombia.

Most of the money goes to buy US products or services and never gets exchanged to pesos.

Ctg Bound says on Jan 12, 2008, 04:10:

john_stark, the latest prediction from PBH curreny expert is that it is heading for 4,000 pesos to the dollar not 3,000.

panthdave says on Jan 12, 2008, 04:39:

Its averaging at 2000 Pesos...alittle below and then alittle above.....I showing 1976 5PM yesterday....today probably 2001 or 2002...One day in between Christmas and New Years went to 1987 but the next day over 2000..

Whatever old story it is what it is...Peso strengthens I will live move economical..like the Colombians which I am starting to do anyways...

panthdave Miami

aztec says on Jan 12, 2008, 05:10:

I still consider it a bargain at today's exchange considering my first trip in the mid 90s it was around 600. miamimike


Have to agree with you. I have been traveling back and forth since 1990. Can remember the rate at 750 and thought that was a bargain!

expatriate says on Jan 12, 2008, 06:18:

john_stark says on Jan 12, 2008, 07:42:

One of the drivers is interest rates. The US Fed is going to lower rates while in Colombia they are going to raise rates. Lower interest rates makes a currency less attractive.

tejasmarcos says on Jan 12, 2008, 07:46:

as panthdave states, it has been tetering right around 2000 for a while, plus or minus 50.

my glass is getting shorter on whiskey, ice and water...

Ctg Bound says on Jan 12, 2008, 07:46:

expatriate, that is on thing that affects the exchange rate of a currency but there are way more than that.

joetexan says on Jan 12, 2008, 10:30:

When I first visited Colombia in 1973, it was 25 pesos to the dollar. When I lived here from 85-87, it was about 175 pesos to the dollar. As a gingo living in Colombia, I would like to exchange rate to be higher, but I know that is bad for Colombia so I hold my tongue.

Everytime there is a big devaluation of the dollar, the American media explains to the American people why that is good for us. American products are cheaper, foreign imports more expensive. We gain market share. During the Cold War, in order to help the Europeans, when the dollar devalued the U.S. government bought 10's of billions of dollars and forced the value up. We no longer feel a need to help the Euros. It's sink or swim in the Global economy.

When the pesos gains too much on the dollar, Gringos buy coffee, flowers, and bananas from other countries - the three principal exports of Colombia.

rpcv says on Jan 12, 2008, 11:14:

Piense en esto. In 1964-1966 it was $1 USA = 16 pesos colombianos. A filet mignon dinner in a very good Medellin restuarant (Salvatores) was 16 pesos. And sit on the rooftop under the stars sipping an Aguila that cost 1.5 pesos! I think the plato del dia at the Versailles was 5 pesos. Sigh.

aposantos says on Jan 12, 2008, 11:17:

I have been in Europe for a year and the dollar is worthless. Our great country is deep in debt and being financed now by the Middle East and Asian countries. The fed keeps lowering the interset rates to bail out the crooks on Wall Street, and the average American is financing the bums with high gas prices etc etc. The same Wall street people of today who have been running the country now for 7 years with the Feds hand off, are of the same character of the ones that caused the crash of 1929, just the same greedy bottom line people. These crooks want a world based on economics (the cheapest labor) and want nothing to do with nationalistic countries.
China is booming only because we have given away all our manufacturing and expertise.

Wait and in 5 years Colombia's textile industry will move to China. Wake up Colombia

Ctg Bound says on Jan 12, 2008, 11:17:

joetexan, most of the things Colombia exports, the countries that Colombia is competing with also have currencies apprecating against the dollar, of the three things you mention, flowers & bananas are not large exports for Colombia, coffee is, but you will find that other coffee exporting Countries currencies have increased in value, the largest exporter of cofffee in the world Brazil, the Real went up by approx 22% to Colombias 11% increase last year.

joetexan says on Jan 12, 2008, 11:22:

Ctg Bound,

Thanks for your reply. I read in a Colombian elementary school social studies book of the child of a friend of mine that the three biggest exports of Colombia were coffee, flowers, and bananas. I know that all the flowers sold in the supermarket were I shop in Austin are imported from Colombia. The biggest competitor is Guatemala and I have no idea if the Quetzal is up or down.

aposantos says on Jan 12, 2008, 11:29:

The Global economy is a way way economy bankrupting the U.S

When Toyota comes to the States to build a factory, it is with American workers, to build cars by American workers mainly for the Americans. This is Globalization

When Nike shoes has a factory making shoes for 5 dollars with cheap labor in Asia, then ships the shoes to the States and sells them for 100 dollars, that is not Globalization, but nothing more than making a few people rich in the stock market. For every person making money in the stock market a hundred more lose.

There are already more educated people in the world than jobs available. The average "American Joe" wants a good paying skilled labor job, and not a PHD. The ony way any Country can sustain a middle class is with industry and manufacturing. The wonder of it all why China is growing at 9% GDP, because we are giving them all our manufacturing.

Waterdawg says on Jan 12, 2008, 11:30:

Aposantos : I am in the leather Biz here in Colombia & I can tell you first hand what a tough time we have competing " Now " .. Will be at the Mens Moda in Chicago the first week of Feb; And I already know what I'm going to here .. Love the style , designs , Quality .... Whats the price ??? Caio

Ctg Bound says on Jan 12, 2008, 11:32:

joetexan,

Maybe the book was just talking about agricuture exports...?

Here is the rough order I think that Colombia exports in value:

petroleum, coffee, coal, nickel, emeralds, apparel, bananas, cut flowers

I can't remember the values, but the average monthly export value of petroleum, is 10 times the value of the coal exports for example I seem to recall, cut flowers monthly exports are very small part of the total if I remember correctly.

Ctg Bound says on Jan 12, 2008, 11:39:

aposantos,

It doesn't cost much to make a pair of Nike shoes in a developed Country either, certainly more than a developing one, but no where near $100, a lot of people along the chain, where ever the product is produced are making money. As to people on the stockmarket making money, most companies in the world are not listed on stockmarkets, even those that are, so what, its not a zero sum game.

"The ony way any Country can sustain a middle class is with industry and manufacturing" ...thats something along the lines what the ludites said when more automated machines were being used in England at the beginning of the industrial revolution.

aposantos says on Jan 12, 2008, 11:43:

The Colombian export flower business is off I recall about 20% or more from just 4 years ago.

Waterdawg,
In London in the stores one sees quite a bit of Chinese leather goods, coats etc. I have not seen Colombian leather goods over here, and i travel all over Europe. Of course the Italians have very good leather.

Ctg Bound says on Jan 12, 2008, 11:48:

aposantos,

Yes I read the flower business has shrunk, it was expectecd as new competitors have been coming along, plus many of the present competitors have not had to attend with apreciating currencies.

aposantos says on Jan 12, 2008, 12:05:

Well our Country is losing its middle class, and China is developing its middle class.

Now ask oneself why China is developing its middle class? The "only reason" is because they are developing their manufacturing and industry. The reason all 3rd world Countries have almost no middle classes is because they have little manufacturing and industrial capability.

Yes machines automated, however the machines stayed in England and benefited the English, just as American machinery stayed in the States and benefited the Americans.

Now the machinery is moving to China and benefiting the Chinese. For the time being the market place is us, and our money is going to them. However as we continue to lose our middlle class they are developing theirs, and it will eventually be expensive for the average american to buy even in Walmart.

The other issue is the "Red Chinese Communists" are building an ultra modern military and we are paying for it. Something every American should think about.

Ctg Bound says on Jan 12, 2008, 14:07:

aposantos,

Agricultaral economy to manufacturing economy to service economy to whatever.

The world moves on, there will still be plenty of manufacturing jobs in the US, when the manufacturing jobs start moving from China to the next Country.

aposantos says on Jan 12, 2008, 14:44:

Because of political correctness, equal opportunity laws, government intervention in the workplace in the last 30 years, is one of the main reasons U. S Corporations moved overseas. Before this time U S. Corporations worst enemies were the unions in the workplace. After all the political laws were put in place even they lost control of there own members.

Most enities, manufacturing i.e. U.S. Corporations that have, had the money, have moved their operartions overseas as to circumnavigate labor laws, health, etc etc. tort laws, EEOC laws, etc. Those that could not, can not afford to do that, rely on cheap illegal mexican, south american labor, which is why small business (i.e. American Chamber of Commerce) in the States are for illegal open border immigration.

Most third world countries have in place agricultural economies, which is why they are all still 3rd world. Only manufacturing and industry can create and maintain a middle class

Service economies do not require the skill and expertise of manufacturing economies, and can not substain a middle classs. If that was the case the U.S. middle class would be doing better today than previously when a predominantly manufacturing economy.

China is becoming the first world power, and manufacturing is going nowhere, as there is
nowhere else for it to go. India has the population but not the political power, besides no transportation infrastructure. No other country is capable of the manufacturing output of the U.S. other than China.

john_stark says on Jan 12, 2008, 14:58:

You're forgetting Germany of course, the world's largest exporter.

Ctg Bound says on Jan 12, 2008, 15:01:

aposantos , service industries overall require far more expertiese than manufacturing, hence why more manufacturing is moving overseas, compared with services.

diabloblas says on Jan 12, 2008, 15:17:

do you want fries with that order?

...takes a lot expertise to break into that part of the service industry

aposantos says on Jan 12, 2008, 22:39:

Yes Germany is the largest exporter. They have the capacity to take care of their own people with a good standard of living, and with excellent exports. They do not have the manufacturing capacity to compete to fill the needs of the populations of China or the U.S. (which is why they and the Japanese lost WW2.) They are the largest European country wirth 80 million people. They are and have always been a very intelligent industrious people manufacturing very high quality products that much of the world demands. They are centrally located for Europe consumers and Middle East Country consumers. They also have the ability to do business accordingly without the legal restraints as U.S. Corporations They also since WW2 as the Japanese, directed their efforts on their industries, while the rest of the west has financed their defense mechanisms. Germany has managed to do economically what Hilter could not do militarily, consolidate Europe which is why they were and are the forefront for the European Union. They also are not bound by the business restraints that American Corporartions are in political correctness.laws. Though they have an immigration problem, they are still much more of a closed society than the rest of Europe as are the Japanese.

Manufacturing takes more intelligence than service industries. .Service industries only exist to service products manufactured by others who were smart enough to make something. Manufacturing is moving overseas for reasons previously mentioned. Service industries are required to service what was manufactured. To say that it takes more intelligence to service what someone else invented and manufactured, is basically the same thinking of most lawyers and accountants, who think they are more important than the fellow who made it, always forgetting they make their livelyhood off of the very same people they live off of and condemm in the legal system.

Any traveled person can see the results of fries, just look at the kids anywhere in the world which has a MacDonalds. Their experetise is in marketing, not in making fries with less saturated fats.

john_stark says on Jan 13, 2008, 02:31:

I'd have to agree with you, Aposantos, making things is primary. I've never understood how we can have a first class economy serving each other food and doing each other's laundry.

Waterdawg says on Jan 13, 2008, 07:14:

aposantos :
Waterdawg,
In London in the stores one sees quite a bit of Chinese leather goods, coats etc. I have not seen Colombian leather goods over here, and i travel all over Europe. Of course the Italians have very good leather.

I should not knock another persons product , but comparing what the china makes ( leather ) to our Colombian lamb is like night and day .. I will ( at this time ) but our Lambskin jakkets up against the Italian or Spanish.. Problem is cost .. Now for folks looking for a kick high end jacket , we be there..

England should be a good market for us ..

Another problem we have ( mentioned in another tread ) is shipping .. We get it right up the you know what here in Latin America,..

SamGompers says on Jan 13, 2008, 08:11:

Unions were NOT the great enemy of the automakers in post-WW II United States. In fact, both labor leaders and management looked to unionization and the contract as ways to stabilize wage and work relations. Union contracts in the auto industry gave carmakers a level of predictability, order, and control on the shopfloor. (Remember the turbulent 1930s - - when wildcat and sitdown strikes were the bane of car making. Unions gained great power when they persuaded manufacturers that they, the unions could effectively discipline workers.) The symbiosis between unions and management underwrote three decades of high profitability, prosperity, and a "middle-class" way of life in places like Detroit, Flint, Youngstown, etc.

Healthy unions and activist states are responsible for expanding middle classes. Say what you want but the "European model" - - close cooperation between State and unions - - still manages to sustain higher qualities of life. The U.S. is sinking backward into a more "developing nation" arrangement - - less fettered capitalism, more of a "risk" society for workers, weaker state. This always favors the cultivation of economic elites rather than the broad distribution of security and prosperity.

Now that we're locked into a "Walmart" economy - - dependent on low wages, low prices, import commodities - - don't expect the dollar to ever achieve the strength it once had. Or rather, the only way the dollar will achieve former strength is if the other major economic players - - Japan, China, Europe - - decide to shift to the "Walmart" style of economics, something that doesn't look likely.

diabloblas says on Jan 13, 2008, 08:52:

i don't know if i agree with your prognosis based on the below statement samgompers...but other countries are following suit with walmat economies....even china

the only way the dollar will achieve former strength is if the other major economic players - - Japan, China, Europe - - decide to shift to the "Walmart" style of economics, something that doesn't look likely.

tomtom33 says on Jan 13, 2008, 09:24:

Unions were fine in the 50's. They are not so fine today. And they are paying the price for their excesses.

diabloblas says on Jan 13, 2008, 11:35:

tomtom...what do you think of the writer's union?

lpdiver says on Jan 13, 2008, 13:43:

CHina is doing so well because industrial labor costs .02 cents per hour. Packaging the product cost many times more than manufacturing it in many cases.

t

"cook some rice!"

tomtom33 says on Jan 13, 2008, 13:55:

I know very little of the writer's union. I hope they are better than the Teamsters.

diabloblas says on Jan 13, 2008, 14:45:

lpdiver...where did you come up with that figure for china?

...pure bullshit.

Ctg Bound says on Jan 13, 2008, 15:21:

diabloblas,

"do you want fries with that order?...takes a lot expertise to break into that part of the service industry"

That part of the service industry won't be replaced by another Country, you are not going to fly from the US to Chbna or wherever to go and buy a meal on its own, or visit a shop etc.

Service Industry is also accounting, lawyers, computer programers etc.

diabloblas says on Jan 13, 2008, 17:04:

my statement stands ctg boung.

...wait til you're sober... read the whole statement

..or get rikito to read it for you & give a 5 paragraph analysis

SamGompers says on Jan 13, 2008, 19:43:

Capitalism lives off the profit margin between labor costs and market price. In manufacturing, labor costs are usually kept down via what some economists call the "capital for labor" substitution - - i.e. automation and machinery replacing labor. When you can't squeeze more value out of labor via technology, you start searching for cheaper wages. And then the race around the world is on . . .

Economists thought for a long time that the service economy worked differently. You couldn't buy a milkshake in Korea and have it shipped to Kenosha. However, capital is always smarter than its theorists. Even the service economy can be off-shored, once you've trained people to read, write, and speak English. Call centers, tutoring, customer support, web services are all being off-shored to cheaper labor spots like India and (formerly) Ireland. According to some lawyer friends of mine, even legal briefs are now being prepared by para-legalists in Mumbai. The U.S. even imports its nurses and doctors, not to mention janitors and shelf stockers, from developing countries nowadays. I.e. globalization isn't just about finding sweated labor in underdeveloped countries. It's about importing and exporting expertise as well.

Looking objectively at the U.S. - - I'd say that the only international economic powerhouse we have left is the higher education system, which still manages to crank out more knowledge than most of the rest of the world combined. (Interesting, that this is something the Cubans latched onto a couple of decades ago after they had been beaten up for so long in the sugar market - - i.e. developing their scientific and technical knowledge capital and exporting it around latin america.)

I don't expect the dollar to strengthen significantly until after all the recently created fictitious capital (i.e. mortgage loan industry and associated instruments) has been flushed out of the system.

john_stark says on Jan 13, 2008, 21:09:

Question for you, Sam. What do you think about trucking? I had long thought that this couldn't be outsourced but it looks like they're trying to let Mexican truckers into the US so maybe I was wrong. What do you think? Is there any outsource-proof area?

Ctg Bound says on Jan 17, 2008, 20:43:

joetexan, Below liosts some monthly numbers in regards the main exports of Colombia...

UPDATE: Colombia Oct Trade Deficit At $390.5M Vs $16M Surplus

BOGOTA (Dow Jones)--Colombia posted a trade deficit of $390.5 million in October, swinging from a $16 million surplus in the same month in 2006, as imports rose faster than exports, the national statistics department, known as DANE, said Thursday.

DANE said exports in October advanced 15% to $2.59 billion.

In December, DANE said that October imports, including freight and insurance costs, rose 33% to $3.19 billion.

In the first 10 months of the year, the country posted a trade deficit of $1.52 billion compared with a surplus of $187 million in the same period in 2006.

Exports of oil, coal, coffee and nickel fell 5% in October from the same month in 2006 to $1.06 billion, while other exports saw a 34% rise to $1.53 billion.

Exports of oil products rose 42% to $678 million, boosted by higher prices, even as the country's oil companies shipped 7.9% less tons of oil and processed products. Coal exports fell 55% to $156 million in value, and were down 59% to 2.81 million metric tons in volume.

In October, nickel exports fell 42% to $94 million, while coffee exports rose 2.5% to $137 million.

The largest trade deficit registered by Colombia in the first 10 months of the year was with Mexico at $2.04 billion, followed by China at $1.76 billion and Brazil $1.54 billion.

The trade gap with those countries was partly offset by surpluses of $2.69 billion with Venezuela and $1.84 billion with the U.S.

The appreciation of the Colombian peso, which gained 11% last year, made exports less competitive, while encouraging Colombians to buy more imported goods and services.

LINK: http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=31d129a2-...

docwilliam says on Jan 18, 2008, 15:28:

Amen GIB

"There's no time to panic"