Colombia June Exports +75% on Year

Ctg Bound says on Aug 14, 2008, 06:33:

Looks like mostly if not nearly all down to the increase in oil.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

gorgonabob says on Aug 14, 2008, 06:50:

on the six months its

a 5.7 billion increase with 3.4 billion of that due to oil.... Coal is up big time as well.. and exports like tourism will be increasing a lot but not recognised there.. tourism should be colombias number two foreign exchange earner reasonably soon. also exports to venezuela are booming as they cant do much on there own...and colombias starting to export more and more energy, hydroelectricity.. the story is althogether pretty good i think

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Ctg Bound says on Aug 14, 2008, 06:55:

gorgonabob,

The coal % increase is large, but not much in value compared with oil, also the other numbers are small in value terms compared with oil.

Plus non commodity exports are just holding their own or slightly down overall.

"the story is althogether pretty good i think"

I wouldn't disagree with that though.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

romy says on Aug 14, 2008, 08:25:

too bad Uribe sold off ecopetrol... otherwise the people would have benefited

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Ctg Bound says on Aug 14, 2008, 08:40:

romy,

The government have only sold off 20% of Ecopetrol.

The worst place to have any company is with the government generally.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

jonas says on Aug 14, 2008, 08:58:

and this shows us once again why the peso has gained so much strength over the past year.

Mi alma se la dejo al diablo

0 funny, 0 helpful.

pedro says on Aug 14, 2008, 09:14:

Romy, too bad you haven't understood the issues and even if you did, would only look to the negative side of things.

The government has only corporatised Ecopetrol and floated 10% of its equity in the market.

The benefits have been:
- increased the capital of Ecopetrol to make it able to pursue new projects.
- corporatising it has removed old restrictions, allowing the company to compete on the international stage and go out and make more money.
- more exploration and project investment within Colombia, creating jobs and increased profits. 90% of these increased profits still benefit the government and hence the Colombian people.
- the initial 10% issue of Ecopetrol only went to Colombian individuals, in a highly democratic fashion. Each of these individuals is showing a 71% profit on their investment. Creating a nation of shareholders is an excellent way to improve the wealth of the nation. I have seen this happen in Australia over the last 20 years or so.

The people *have* undeniably benefitted from the initiatives in Ecopetrol during Uribe's administration.

que nota!

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Ctg Bound says on Aug 14, 2008, 09:21:

pedro,

10% less than I thought.

There is no way I am going to get in a discussion with Romy, but you have laid out for me.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

romy says on Aug 14, 2008, 09:41:

explain how the people have benefited? or are we somhow able to feed the hungry with these daily clippings or perhaps build homes for the displaced, perhaps build weapons for the colored folk to defend themselves. I don't get how the people have benefited... perhaps the few that are just in the country for holidays or live in estrato 5-6.

btw, I'll admit I hadn't bothered to read what the deal was entirely comprised of. Soft sciences are just a hobby of mine

0 funny, 0 helpful.

pedro says on Aug 14, 2008, 10:32:

Isn't it obvious?

If the government has assets that increase in value and throw off income and corporate tax, it can free up money to spend in other areas, or reduce taxes.

Those pension liabilities and salaries for government workers, for example, have to be funded with government assets and income streams... or failing that, new taxes.

Ecopetrol is a rapidly increasing asset, under the new corporate structure. Ecopetrol is providing income to the government to fund its commitments in all its essential works.

More jobs in some regions.

The new Barrancabermeja refinery upgrade is going to reduce pollutants.

The Ecopetrol offer was publicised to the people at large on the streets, in the media, in every Exito, Carrefour... They even went as far as to offer a cuotas plan for folks to buy shares upfront and pay it off over 12 monthly quotas. I've never seen that in any other country. If that's not egalitarian, what exactly do you want?

Have you noticed the rapidly improving peso exchange rate? Don't you think that helps the Colombian people to afford a better standard of living? Isn't that due in no small part to oil exports (cf beginning of this thread), as well as stability under the Uribe administration?

Have you noticed the strides being made by Brazil, largely on the back of explosive earnings growth from Vale (CVRD) and Petrobras, both corporatised?

que nota!

0 funny, 0 helpful.

tasco66 says on Aug 14, 2008, 10:40:

"Romy, too bad you haven't understood the issues and even if you did, would only look to the negative side of things."

No surprise here...nothing new...

Not being bound to swear to the dogmas of any master

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Ctg Bound says on Aug 14, 2008, 10:55:

tasco66,

Hence why I don't bother to get in discussions with him/her.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

romy says on Aug 14, 2008, 11:38:

CTg Bound you're just scared, that's fine... Tasco resorts to insult because he can't make an argument, that's sadly all he can manage I don't judge. I'm happy to say that I never scooped to his misguided level, the guy is not even coherent other than Uribe=God and everything else=Devil.

Pedro- Reports out of Uribe's office suggest that Taxes are not going down, if anything they will be increased. Explain the trucker strike in times of economic prosperity? There's less jobs, why would almost all Colombian's want to get out of the country otherwise. I mean if there's work they would stay, so many Colombians are miserable abroad making minimum wage and the nostalgia of these individuals is abundant even on this board. sadly, your theories die in the economics textbook as Colombia does not meet the criteria for these strategies to be successful. Inequality is of foremost importance and that isn't being challenged.

0 funny, 0 helpful.

pedro says on Aug 14, 2008, 12:13:

Romy, I've always seen you as a smart and insightful guy.. but now I'm beginning to doubt myself?

I explained exactly how the people have benefitted. Now, since presumably you've got no comeback on that, you twist it around as if I was claiming that the Ecopetrol changes have solved all of Colombia's social problems in one fell swoop. I never claimed that, and you should know it. I just said that the people have benefitted because of that one change viewed in isolation, and I demonstrated how.

Why don't you try that response again? How about re-reading what I wrote and responding only to that?

Your comment about taxes going up is not relevant to what I wrote or what you originally claimed... please reassure me that you're capable of understanding the cause and effect here. I would like to think you're knowingly responding like you did only in order to obfuscate the issue and move the discussion on to points where you actually have a basis in fact.

que nota!

0 funny, 0 helpful.

romy says on Aug 14, 2008, 13:38:

Pedro- I gave your points more of a fair reading... I hope you can empathize that I don't deal with comprehensive arguments like yours most of the time and usually with a skim I can refute most of their arguments. Anyways I apologize for not giving your thoughts better consideration.
However, I still disagree that the people (at least by how I define the concept) have benefited. And now I'm wondering if the 'improvements' in Ecopetrol are the result of corporisation or merely the higher price of crude.

I commented on each of your points...

“If the government has assets that increase in value and throw off income and corporate tax, it can free up money to spend in other areas, or reduce taxes."

Not happening now, and sadly no indications of change. Perhaps just lower corporate tax...


“Those pension liabilities and salaries for government workers, for example, have to be funded with government assets and income streams... or failing that, new taxes."

Obviously revenue is good for government


“Ecopetrol is a rapidly increasing asset, under the new corporate structure. Ecopetrol is providing income to the government to fund its commitments in all its essential works. “

Ok, you probably know ecopetrol better than me to tell. But how can we be sure of what caused change. Privatization of PetroCanada wasn't so hot at the time... I wonder why?


“More jobs in some regions. “

sure, though incomplete (as we know the story for other regions)


“The new Barrancabermeja refinery upgrade is going to reduce pollutants."

Great for.... the world


“The Ecopetrol offer was publicised to the people at large on the streets, in the media, in every Exito, Carrefour... They even went as far as to offer a cuotas plan for folks to buy shares upfront and pay it off over 12 monthly quotas. I've never seen that in any other country. If that's not egalitarian, what exactly do you want?"

are you serious? That makes any difference? The uneducated masses have little concept of finances to understand a worthy investment that this would have been. These people don't have money to risk... they require a government to make decisions for them and get them to a level when they can decide for themselves.


“Have you noticed the rapidly improving peso exchange rate? Don't you think that helps the Colombian people to afford a better standard of living? Isn't that due in no small part to oil exports (cf beginning of this thread), as well as stability under the Uribe administration? “

Oil exports probably had a lot to do. But, have you noticed inflation rates? The people that benefit are... I guess people like me that live on Colombian pesos abroad and travel the world on these too. Doesn't seem just.


“Have you noticed the strides being made by Brazil, largely on the back of explosive earnings growth from Vale (CVRD) and Petrobras, both corporatised? “

I'm personally very happy with PetroBras' performance... not familiar with the living conditions in Brazil to be able to tell if there's been a change...

0 funny, 0 helpful.

Monpirri says on Aug 14, 2008, 14:15:

pedro says on Aug 14 (today): flag

"Romy, too bad you haven't understood the issues and even if you did, would only look to the negative side of things."
No kidding! It's in Romy's DNA.

The life spam of a taste bud is ten days

0 funny, 0 helpful.

pedro says on Aug 14, 2008, 16:34:

Romy,

OK cool. Well, a rising tide floats all boats. And the oil price is certainly bringing windfall revenues around the world.

For example, if Venezuela's export income and hydrocarbon reserves have shot up to new levels (I'm sure they have)... I would be the first to argue that it wouldn't be entirely due to Chavez's management. Who's to say what would have been possible under the old PDVSA?

Whether you believe Ecopetrol has gotten better under Uribe's changes is probably an article of faith more than anything. We definitely saw Petrobras hit the stratosphere after it passed away from being a government entity.

I'm satisfied enough with the analysis of Ecopetrol I did last year duing the public offer, to say that I think Uribe's reform has been very positive. Also what I've seen since (press stories about the enormous new investment by the company over the coming years.

If you wanted to get closer to a definitive answer, we'd have to chase up some stats about wells drilled, production figures, employee counts etc, which I doubt either of us could be bothered to do at this time.

que nota!

0 funny, 0 helpful.