Chavez seeks Colombia's backing (ie: DMZ) to meet rebel chief

fecherklyn says on Sep 15, 2007, 15:24:

Anyone remember Oliver and Hardy and their catchphrase...."Now look what a mess you have got me into?".

Can you imagine the four of them (Uribe, Chavez, Sarkozy FARC representative) squatting around a jungle campfire making polite conversation?

No, I think Uribe has got himself into a tight corner from which it will be difficult for him to emerge without a lot of mud-slinging his way. This must be god-send to the FARC, sitting in a reunion like an equal with other government heads. Not bad for someone who has no formal electoral support.

Want to bet that Chavez has not already mapped out how he is going to blame Uribe when everything comes to nothing?

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imdarkangel says on Sep 15, 2007, 19:44:

fecherklyn i think ure right

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goin_south says on Sep 15, 2007, 20:20:

So, you two are betting that Uribe will not participate?
Or, that he will, but nothing will come of the meeting?
Which?

Juancegomez, I can't believe you posted this without comment.
But,...I know you will. And, I'm anxious to hear what you have to say about it.

Boba-ma: " i AM the president "

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juancegomez says on Sep 15, 2007, 20:36:

Seems Uribe basically responded by strongly implying "I already said no". See below.

goin_south:

I don't always comment when posting news, but this time I made a bit of an ironic statement up there. Think of it as my first impression.

But if you want something more elaborate, I can sum things up like this: in order to pull off anything like this, Chavez or anyone else really needs Uribe's permission, and he's not going to get that "ipso facto", if at all.

Such permission has not been given thus far. And I think it's a fairly reasonable thing, because right now this is only a generic, populist proposal, not a concrete one. We need clear conditions, not televised speeches about good intentions and what not.

A ton of questions about how this new "zone" would work immediately pop up and remain in the air. Chavez makes it sound like it's just a matter of saying "I want to demilitarize X area" and leaving everything at that, magically resolving everything out of sight.

Even if Uribe was satisfied by just that, dealing with the thornier details behind closed doors, the public probably wouldn't. We've already been through this before.

Pastrana got a lot of deserved heat for bowing to most of FARC's demands and arbitrary actions without much resistance or even tact, at least as far as most Colombians could understand at the time. That hurt not only his own image but that of the entire process itself, not to mention all the other consequences inherent to its general mismanagement and improvisation.

Unless a much more comprehensive game plan comes up, in order to fully evaluate its merits and its flaws, this is just posturing and hot air.

--------------
Colombia rejects Venezuela's hostage swap request

By Hugh Bronstein
2 hours, 25 minutes ago

BOGOTA (Reuters) - Colombia on Saturday refused to pull back troops to create a safe zone for talks aimed at freeing rebel hostages including former presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt, rejecting a proposal from Venezuela.

Venezuela's leftist President Hugo Chavez asked his conservative Colombian counterpart, Alvaro Uribe, to order troops away from the southern town of San Vicente del Caguan to let Marxist guerrillas enter and negotiate a swap of their kidnap victims for rebels held in government jails.

Uribe, who won the presidency by fiercely criticizing peace talks held in the same town under the previous president, reiterated his refusal to create a neutral zone in Colombia.

"I don't have to repeat what I have already said," Uribe told reporters asking for a response to Chavez's proposal.

Earlier this month Uribe asked Chavez to facilitate the talks.

Chavez, who says socialism can unite South America against what he calls U.S. "imperialism," said Colombian rebel leader Manuel Marulanda told him he cannot travel to Venezuela as had been planned.

"Marulanda suggested that we meet in Caguan," Chavez said in a television appearance. "All you (Uribe) have to do is pull the military back a few kilometers and assure us that there will be no incursions for a few days."

"Mr. President," Chavez continued. "You asked me for help and I want to help. Now, help me. I formally ask you in front of the world to allow me to talk with Marulanda in Colombia."

Betancourt, a French-Colombian national, was kidnapped during her 2002 presidential campaign. She and dozens of other high-profile captives including three American defense contractors taken in 2003 are being held in secret jungle camps by rebels fighting a four-decades-old insurgency.

San Vicente del Caguan was the site of a peace initiative under which Colombia's former President Andres Pastrana ceded a Switzerland-sized piece of territory to FARC rebels.

The talks broke down in 2002, the year that Uribe was first elected. He won a second term in 2006 after cutting crime and sparking economic growth with his tough security policies.

Uribe, whose father was killed in a botched FARC kidnapping more than 20 years ago, remains popular despite a scandal in which some of his closest political allies are accused of helping right-wing death squads.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070916/wl_nm/colombia_hostages_dc_1

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goin_south says on Sep 15, 2007, 20:55:

You think these 'jungle camps' are all that 'secret'?
I have a hard time believing Uribe doesn't know where they are at.

And, it appears the ""scandal in which some of his closest political allies are accused of helping right-wing death squads'''" is dying down and Uribe has about two more years now, to create more progress with the major issues of Colombia, before he must then begin focusing once again on another constitutional change to allow for a third consecutive term.

Remember how easy you all claimed it turned out to be?
If the talk of the scandals continues to dull, and he 'creates' some more positive change or 'perception of progress', then... I can't imagine it will be so difficult to change so AU can run for yet another term.

Afterall... he is a president of precedence.

Boba-ma: " i AM the president "

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juancegomez says on Sep 15, 2007, 21:49:

goin_south:

"You think these 'jungle camps' are all that 'secret'?
I have a hard time believing Uribe doesn't know where they are at."

I believe he may have a general idea of where they are, more or less but you have to consider a couple of things:

-Many of them are just temporary camps that can be abandoned or replaced when necessary.
-They've had 40 years to figure out how to best optimize their defensive actions and logistics.
-The geography and vegetation involved are horrible. In many places you can't see anything from the air, let alone from the ground, unless you know exactly where and when to look.

"And, it appears the ""scandal in which some of his closest political allies are accused of helping right-wing death squads'''" is dying down..."

"Dying down" in the limited sense that the legal process is taking a while, but more and more people keep getting involved in it. It's hardly out of the public eye, or the public's mind for that matter.

"...and Uribe has about two more years now, to create more progress with the major issues of Colombia, before he must then begin focusing once again on another constitutional change to allow for a third consecutive term."

I consider that unlikely. Not impossible, just unlikely.

He's been recently making several statements that would directly indicate that he isn't intending to do so. I can't be bothered to go quote hunting right now, but they're out there. He's even mentioned Agriculture Minister Arias as one of his potential successors, pretty much.

Not to mention that a lot of other people in his own camp want to run in 2010 too. They're not going to just sit down without a fight.

We also have the example of Chavez next door...which serves as a form of warning/vaccine for some people, as far as tinkering way too much with reelection goes.

In spite of all this, Uribe probably could get a third term if he really tried, but I don't think the above circumstances currently benefit such a course of action, even if it remains a possibility.

"Afterall... he is a president of precedence."

Doesn't necessarily mean he's going to do *everything* just because it's possible though.

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goin_south says on Sep 15, 2007, 23:00:

I always appreciate your analyses, juancegomez.

But, I also am always amazed at how 'things in this world are changing' so much, so fast, against all odds, and expectations, and against the course of history.

History might repeat itself. But, that is a limited observation and application of observation.
Every day in the 'Brave New World', we see firsts happening. Just like his 'first, second term'.

Boba-ma: " i AM the president "

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Miguel says on Sep 16, 2007, 00:05:

"Juancegomez, I can't believe you posted this without comment."

He did.

"Let's all go to the Caguán again!

No details, no discussion, no nothing...let's just drop in and everything will be all right! I promise!"

"There is nothing lower than the human race...except for the French." - Mark Twain 1878-79

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goin_south says on Sep 16, 2007, 12:30:

This could be a significant item... either way.
Whichever way AU responds.
It's significant.

Boba-ma: " i AM the president "

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Miguel says on Sep 16, 2007, 19:46:

Thank you MODS !

"There is nothing lower than the human race...except for the French." - Mark Twain 1878-79

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goin_south says on Sep 16, 2007, 22:06:

Miguel ......: on Sunday September 16th, 2007 0:05:

"Juancegomez, I can't believe you posted this without comment."
He did.
"Let's all go to the Caguán again!
No details, no discussion, no nothing...let's just drop in and everything will be all right! I promise!"


No shit, miguel.
But, usually, juancegomez is a man of many words.
Many, many more than this.
And he is without a doubt one of the more respected 'colombian men of many words' on pbh.
If there's one man's opinion about politics in Colombia that I respect and enjoy/appreciate reading... it's the words and thoughts of juancegomez.

Boba-ma: " i AM the president "

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gold digger says on Sep 16, 2007, 22:51:

Did you hear that Chavez is opening a factory to make AK-103 assault rifles? That is all South America needs.

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