Chavez- Is there reason for the paranoia?

romy says on May 9, 2008, 09:41:

Now Chavez can definitely be described as paranoid (I don't agree with the many insults that many people resort to though). But is there reason for this. Would Colombia not be involved in some capacity if there was a direct attack to Chavez?
For the record, before people start implying things... If a declaration of war is made by Colombia, that is my country and who I will support. But until this declaration is done (if it ever does), I'd like for these processes to become as clear as possible. And allegations to be confirmed not just assumed.

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miamimike says on May 9, 2008, 10:48:

Just looked at the Stock Market 5 minutes ago and already these Rumors are affecting Spot Oil Prices. And who is taking it in the Pocketbook but the already burdened US Consumer,,,Nice weekend going home present, higher gas prices to look at,,,

"Wait a minute. What did you just say? You're predicting $4-a-gallon gas? That's interesting. I hadn't heard that." -- Feb. 28, 2008 --George W. Bush, Washington, D.C.

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Wastelandlive says on May 9, 2008, 12:02:

This whole thing is risable.

Ya... the US army is coming apart at the seems as we struggle to keep a lid on Afghanistan and Iraq... but we're going to invade... Venezuela!

And Uribe is making real progress against the guerilla, but they are still unwilling to negotiate. So this is a perfect time to attack a wealthier, more powerful neighbor in a naked war of aggression! Ya! Let's just turn the FARC into an official ally of Chavez, open the taps, and let the weapons pour in... that'll work!

How can anybody read Venezuela Analysis with any seriousness? It's not even up to the level of National Enquirer. It's especially sweet how these boneheads hamfistedly try to smear any credible political opposition that Chavez has left. Next he'll be issuing a warrant to arrest Governor Rosales.

Geeze.

Wasteland

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CatGirl says on May 9, 2008, 13:07:

Romy - very well put :))

Love and Time: the only two things that cannot be bought, but only spent

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juancegomez says on May 9, 2008, 17:40:

Venezuela has been barking about U.S.-led invasions and other plans for so long, none of which has actually materialized, that I would be surprised if this one was actually true. Unless events prove otherwise, I would be extremely cautious.

First off, I'd like to read the entire document myself.

Second, Isaías Rodríguez is a former Attorney General. He no longer has any position in the Venezuelan government.

When and how exactly did he compile this document that is now being mysteriously presented as part of the Danilo Anderson case? A case in which Mr. Rodriguez has lately been feeling a lot of pressure, due to certain irregularities related to the star witness of the case, while he was acting as a prosecutor. See here:

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Witness Says He Was Paid in Venezuela

By IAN JAMES – Apr 9, 2008

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — A man once considered the star witness in the case of an assassinated prosecutor has recanted testimony that helped convict three men and implicated opponents of President Hugo Chavez.

Giovanny Vasquez said in an interview televised Wednesday that he believes the former attorney general, Isaias Rodriguez, was fooled by prosecutors working under him.

Vasquez's lawyer, Morly Uzcategui, said Tuesday night that his client knows nothing about the case but testified against suspects after receiving $500,000 in cash from a government official.

In Vasquez's interview, which was taped Tuesday and shown on the opposition-leaning channel Globovision, he said the former attorney general was apparently unaware. "I have good faith he didn't have anything to do with it," Vasquez was quoted as saying on Globovision's Web site.

Rodriguez responded that the case is being manipulated as part of a U.S.-backed media campaign against Chavez's government, the state-run Bolivarian News Agency reported. Rodriguez said he expects disinformation about the case will be part of a "script" with political aims.

Rodriguez once called Vasquez his key witness in the murder of prosecutor Danilo Anderson, who was killed in a 2004 car bombing.

Based in part on Vasquez's testimony, a judge convicted three former police officers in 2005 and sent them to prison. The men denied involvement in the killing.

Vasquez's testimony also was originally cited as key to cases against other suspects, including banker Nelson Mezerhane, retired Gen. Eugenio Anez Nunez, former police officer Fernando Jesus Moreno Palmar, Cuban-born Salvador Romani and journalist Patricia Poleo, a prominent Chavez critic.

In late 2006, authorities froze criminal proceedings against most of the suspects, citing a lack of evidence. No others have been charged in the killing of Anderson, who had been investigating the roles of government opponents in a failed 2002 coup against Chavez.

Vasquez presented his new testimony to prosecutors Tuesday. Uzcategui, his lawyer, was quoted by the newspaper El Universal as saying his client "provided evidence showing the (first) investigation... was a montage."

The Colombian-born witness went along with it "due to money issues and later due to pressures against him, his relatives and his life," Uzcategui said, according to El Universal. "They delivered $500,000 in cash to Vasquez for having lent his help for this."

The source of the alleged payment was unclear, though the lawyer said it came from a Justice Ministry official.

Vasquez said he has received threats, and his face was blurred to prevent easy identification in the interview, which Globovision said was taped by Somos, a smaller regional station.

In an earlier interview taped in 2006 and released this week, Vasquez mentioned the $500,000 payment, saying he later handed over $200,000 under an agreement with a prosecutor who was taken off the case.

Vasquez said he didn't know the main suspects. He also said he was once flown to Venezuela's La Orchila island by the military intelligence agency. His lawyer said Vasquez was there a month "to prepare him" for testifying.

While there, Vasquez said he met Chavez, who thanked him personally.

"He told me, 'Thank you for helping justice. ... We're here to support you,'" Vasquez said in that interview, according to a summary on Globovision's Web site.

Uzcategui said the 2006 interview was among evidence presented to prosecutors. It is unclear why it was not made public previously.

Associated Press writers Jorge Rueda and Christopher Toothaker contributed to this report.


http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5imI3nBmrQsExJWqbT-dPIe9rLnXgD8VUMI1...

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But admittedly, the specifics of the above case aren't relevant. In fact, the Danilo Anderson case would have very little to do with this alleged recent invasion plan. So why bring it up now?

Simply citing unknown "(presumably infiltrated or paid off) sources within the DAS", who did not even attend this assumed meeting, is not credible enough to sustain such important accusations.

In other words, this story wants us to believe that a former Venezuelan government official, who is now a common citizen, has access to an existing spy apparatus that allowed him to learn of this recent meeting.

Why would an Attorney General, let alone a former one, have to deal with spies at all?

If this information was real, I would expect to see it being presented by current Venezuelan intelligence or police officials, at the very least, not by a common man as part of an unrelated court case.

Finally, to address romy's point...I do not believe that is clear, but I don't see why it should be automatically assumed that Colombia would want to get involved in such a mess.

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OneHappyBoy says on May 9, 2008, 19:17:

and yes, there was a second gunman on the grassy knoll the day JFK was shot in Dallas!
Chavez is crazy! and a wonderful weaver of conspiracy theories! He has predicted a US invasion for years! It keeps his bumbling butt in power.......The US will no more invade Venesuela, as it will anyother country at present.. Bushy has us in a mess in the middle east, and at best, Chavez is as annoying as a two year old kid thats hyperactive.

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huskie says on May 10, 2008, 01:43:

at Biafra, you could not have said it more elocuently. I agree Chavez is a pawn and for that he is digging his own grave, cant wait!

Iran isn’t an energy-independent country. Iran produces more than 4 million barrels of oil per day, the fourth-highest production in the world. And with the near-constant reporting about Iranian crude reserves during the past six months, I find it difficult to believe that anyone could be unaware that Iran has 132 billion barrels in proven reserves--or, at least, they claim to.

But what’s often ignored is that we don't consume crude oil. You don't fill your car's tank with crude, nor is it used to power jet aircrafts, cruise ships or railway locomotives. Crude oil, in its natural state, often isn’t even that flammable; one of the first uses of crude oil was as an alternative to whale blubber in oil lamps.

The real global source of energy is refined products: gasoline (petrol), diesel and jet fuel. Crude oil is nothing more than a raw material--the feedstock used to produce these refined products.

Here's where Iran's energy equation doesn't add up. The Iranian parliament set a date for the introduction of gasoline rationing; it also announced a roughly 25 percent hike in gasoline prices. That's because the country is literally running out of gas.

The Iranian government has elected the self-destructive practice of subsidizing petrol by pegging the price at 9 cents a liter (34.6 cents per gallon) for the past three years, despite the rapid rise in gasoline prices almost everywhere else around the world.

As with any good, artificially low price, it leads to excess demand and waste encouragement. Because gasoline is so cheap, consumers will use more petrol and won't take steps to conserve.

Second is the far-more-obstinate problem of refining capacity. Refiners literally convert raw crude oil into these usable refined products such as gasoline. They're the key middlemen between crude oil and actual, usable products. This crucial step in the crude oil supply chain is often ignored by the financial media.

Assuming the refineries are working properly, the total throughput of Iranian refineries is less than 1.5 million barrels of crude oil per day. And that's a big assumption; as I've stressed before, Iran has massively underinvested in the upkeep of its energy infrastructure. If refinery accidents and shut-ins are relatively common in countries like the US and the UK, you can imagine the potential if a country isn't investing sufficient cash in maintenance.

At any rate, Iran's refining capacity is no better than 38 percent of its oil production; the country can't even refine half the oil it produces. Nor, for that matter, can Iran even refine close to what it consumes.

The bottom line: Iran actually imports some 40 percent of the oil consumed domestically. Somewhat akin to Coleridge's ancient mariner, Iran is surrounded by crude oil but totally incapable of using that oil domestically.

Importing all that petrol is expensive. Iran's parliament is sensibly concerned with its domestic subsidy program and wants to limit the annual subsidy to $2.5 billion. Price hikes isn't going to fix that problem or curb Iran's dependence on foreign refining capacity.

And this isn't a problem just for Iran. with the global energy puzzle, the picture changes dramatically. As part of Chavez's "Socialist Revolution," he's implicitly and/or explicitly threatened to cut off US oil supplies; Venezuela exports roughly 1.5 million barrels of oil per day to the US, including both raw crude and oil products. That puts Venezuela behind only Canada and Mexico as a source of petroleum for the American market. In the context of the current tight global crude market, this would seem to be a significant potential problem.

Chavez has, of course, followed up this rhetoric with stunts like offering subsidized heating oil to poor in the US and even getting Joe Kennedy to front that effort. He's also talked with China and the left-leaning mayor of London about ways for Venezuela to divert. But we shall see what happens next

Cheers

"Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds-"

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OneHappyBoy says on May 10, 2008, 04:02:

Well said guys.. I just don't think, with GW Bushy so bogged down in the middle east, that the US will invade Venesuela, or do it through  Colombian involvment. What I do see, like you guys pointed out, and  didn't enter Iran and Hezbollah into my arguement, (good job), that Chavez, as crazy as he is, will stir the pot in Latin America anyway he can by inviting foriegn fighters into the mix.

What sucks about that is alot of countries, Colombia included, has really worked hard to find peace since the 1970s and 1980s, and a coexistence that seems to really help the economies of suda america...

One issue I see, with him shutting off the oil to the US, is he would be shooting himself in the foot, since Venezuelan crude isn't easily marketable world wide, due to its grading?

You are right about IRAN, from what I understand, their infrastructure is rotting from the inside out, due to lack of investment. This includes its pumping and refining systems. I have read in the past, that in 20 years, oil will trickle out of IRAN due to lack of infrastructure capacity to move oil.

Another thought that is almost scarey, is Chavez using his anti american rhetoric as justification to pre-emptively invade another country, Colombia, to further his "Socialist Revolution"

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rocinante says on May 10, 2008, 05:35:

What are the chances that if this information were to be true that it would be public? I think the original article is fabricated. But at least the OP posted the link and didn't try to pass it off as his own reporting/opinion.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

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Tinto (Moderator) says on May 10, 2008, 06:10:

A US ambassador using a phrase like "Long live the element of surprise" -- I don't think so.

and

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"Brownfield calmed Uribe, saying “don´t worry, everything is already prepared, we’ve been in Venezuela creating the conditions in Zulia for years, now the only thing left is to tie up the loose strings from Colombia and sew together the operation to produce the Venezuelan May."

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The Venezuelan May as in the month of May? This sure sounds like a reference to the Paris Spring aka the French May (of 1968). If so, the article is pure basura, a wet dream written by a university student.

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romy says on May 10, 2008, 06:47:

docwilliam- would the US not be tempted to invade if it were able to link Venezuela to the terrorists?

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romy says on May 10, 2008, 06:55:

Regardless of what the article at the top says or who says it. Fact is the process of naming Venezuela a sponsor of terror is moving along very fast (considering they're taking the time to provide evidence and there has been no obvious direct terrorist involvement). so, I truly have a slight fear for what it could mean in terms of possible Colombian involvement or side-effects of war that will naturally come as being a neighbor country ie.refugees, radiation, etc.
And my biggest concern is for the people of Venezuela who would be the ones that suffer the most from this pissing contest.

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tomtom33 says on May 10, 2008, 07:38:

The people of VZ are already suffering greatly. Given recent history, it would take a whole lot more than links to terrorism to trigger any kind of invasion.

VZ is about as important as Cuba in the grand scheme of things.

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romy says on May 10, 2008, 07:41:

"VZ is about as important as Cuba in the grand scheme of things"
yeeahh...NO.

See size, resources, and sphere of influence of those two countries

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tomtom33 says on May 10, 2008, 07:52:

Okay, make that one very small notch above Cuba. Happy now?

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romy says on May 10, 2008, 08:00:

no... but I'm not here to convince anybody of anything, I just want to learn. I would say you can try to make an argument if you actually want to discuss OR read into this closer OR continue to patronize. It's all up to you big guy.

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tomtom33 says on May 10, 2008, 08:11:

There is absolutely no reason for his paranoia other than his coca chewing. That is my argument.

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juancegomez says on May 10, 2008, 10:01:

Chavez does have reasons to be worried about the U.S., but I do not believe he has reason to be worried about any imminent invasion, beyond his usual rhetorics, even if he somehow ended up on the terror list (which isn't certain, press headlines aside...). At most, I think he would then fear sanctions, and even those would be limited, considering Venezuela's importance as an oil exporter, because I don't think the U.S. wants to piss off Chavez that much. Again, later events may be more complicated than that, but for now I don't think that a war is imminent, so I am only theoretically worried about its consequences.

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aztec says on May 12, 2008, 07:38:

Documents indicate that Chavez helped Colombia rebels

Documents that Colombia says it recovered from a slain guerrilla leader give the clearest indication yet that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez sought to arm and finance insurgents across the border.
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The documents — more than a dozen internal rebel messages — detail several years of close cooperation between top officials in Venezuela's government and military and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, including the construction of rebel training facilities on Venezuelan soil.

They also suggest Venezuela was preparing to loan the rebels at least US$250 million (euro190 million), provide them with Russian weapons and possibly even help them obtain surface-to-air missiles for use against Colombian military aircraft.

Most importantly, they outline a joint strategic project between Venezuela and the Colombian rebels, with Venezuela even seeking rebel training in "asymmetrical warfare" in preparation for a feared U.S. invasion.

The documents were shown to The Associated Press on Friday, days before Interpol is to issue a report that Colombia's conservative government hopes will dispel any doubts about the documents' authenticity.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080511/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/colombia_chavez_...

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