Avion Bird Flu Pandemic

BAQ says on Oct 4, 2005, 14:34:

There is a SECOND Medication - I forgot about it It is the pill Tamiflu, which makes symptoms less severe and shortens the duration of the illness, that is in short supply — not its harder-to-use inhaled competitor Relenza.

Semper Fidelis !

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2retirensa says on Oct 4, 2005, 16:11:

Tamiflu What a coincidence. I was just cleaning out the medicine cabinet and found 5 pills I didn't take last year (dose is 1 pill twice a day for 5 days). I had such a bad reaction, I thought the flu was a peice of cake in comparison. I read the literature which said it reduced the symptoms by an average of 1.3 days. I may have to pass on this cure!
Maureen

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BAQ says on Oct 13, 2005, 12:35:

UPDATE Just got off the phone wiht ROACHE S.A. in Bogota (Roache Pharmacutical makes TAMIFLU) and they advised that "We no longer sell / Distribute TAMILFU in Colombia". They advised that they are aware of the supplpy problem and that "If the need arises" ie: Bird Flu in Colomia that they would import the drug for distribution.

That being said ** HORSE SHIT !!! There is already a shortage of the drug world wide so DO NOT EXPECT to be able to purchase it here.

If ya want this medicine, you will need to look OUTSIDE OF COLOMBIA to get it.

Hope the info helps.

Semper Fidelis !

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CaryGrant says on Oct 13, 2005, 17:48:

Ahh, Georgie. When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

As a veghead, I'm not too happy with you carni/omnivores for creating this disease. I have no doubt that there will one day be another Black Plague-type epidemic, and this may be it, or a precursor. That said, I'm not popping any pills until I absolutely have to - but I do think BAQ is wise for stocking up. Because when you need the pills...they'll all be spoken for.

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BAQ says on Oct 14, 2005, 09:29:

Well my concern Yea, I understand that Tamiflu is not the "Magic Pill", but look at the stats. The pandemic of 1918 killed millions of people and the mortality rate was only FIVE %.

This new bug, CURRENTLY, has a FIFTY PERCENT mortality rate. What everyone is HOPING is that "IF" this virus mutates, it will weaken in strength but if it mutates and remains as strong as it is now, a 50% mortality rate is POSSIBLE.

I am not trying to panic anyone, I am only presenting the facts as thay stand today. I am not a Doctor or a Chemist or a pathologist ect., so by no means do I hold myself out to be an expert, however these numbers, as they stand today, are scary as hell when you look at the possible implications if this gug were to go global.

Semper Fidelis !

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2retirensa says on Oct 14, 2005, 09:41:

yes, my reactiion was bad but that doesn't mean everyone will have the same experience. I would try it again if I thought I had the "bird flu"; it may have a different reaction. For me, it made the vomitting and head ache worse.
Lets not forget, as GIB points out, at this time there is no bird to person or person to person transmission of this. They are looking at IF there is. By then, any Tamiflu you have now will probably long be expired and of little to no use.
Maureen

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calipro says on Oct 14, 2005, 10:05:

Tinto Quit making fun of the irrational fears of some of our board members.


You won't need the gun. Just carry two wallets with you. hehehe !!!

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BAQ says on Oct 14, 2005, 11:57:

Tinto TINTO, You crack me up, just too funny - hahahaha. Good idea thought. Hell, if this thing were to get bad, I just might take my chances in the mountians dealing with the FARC, hahahahah

Calipro, not trying to be irrational, but I do believe in survival and I have ALWAYS lived under the concept of "Tis better to have and not need than need and not have" and it has served me very well. Do I have lots of bottled water, canned food ect in my home, you bet ya. All I can say is look at Katrina and the recent earthquake in Asia. EVERYONE (Govt's) say "We are on the way, don;t worry" but look at the reality, thousands die needlessly because they were "Under prepared". I just believe that the only person I can guarantee will take care of me is me. There are never any guarantee's for life. I could get hit by a taxi crossing the street tomorrow but if taking a few extra measures of caution give me a bit of an edge, I'll gladly take those few extra % points.

Just a thought.

Semper Fidelis !

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kat1 (Moderator) says on Oct 14, 2005, 12:13:

this Avia flu pandemic, remind me when the sars pandemic and all the panic and at the end hardly people were kill, they said is only you get it if you are in contact with a sick animal, it won't pass from human to human and the chance of a human get it and then mutate that is very slim, we just looking at the worst case scenario. this remind me the mad cows day too. From now on no more kentuchy fried chicken jejeje

♥

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BAQ says on Oct 14, 2005, 12:59:

Nope No, what the "Experts" are worried about is the following:

1. We are heading into the "Regular" flu season" and at the same time bird's are beginning to migrate.
2. Someone who is infected with the "Normal" flu becomes infected at the same time with the "Bird Flu" (Someone who was been working with, raises birds ect)
3. When BOTH strains of flu are in the "Host", both viruses WILL merge together and exchange their "Genetic makeup", thus creating a new strain that "Would in all probability" (W.H.O.'s quote, not mine) result in a strain of bird flu that is easily passed from person to person.
4. The BIG QUESTION is "Will the new strain be as strong as the origional"

I am just passing on this info from what is being posted on the W.H.O.'s, CDC's and other medical web sites.

Again, I am NOT saying this thing is going to mutate and go global, all I am saying is that there is a a higher than usual probability that it will, but at what strength is anybody's guess.

So, that is all I am gunna say about it. I guess if ya want further information, do some research on the subject.

Semper Fidelis !

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aztec says on Oct 14, 2005, 13:02:

I can remember... ...my grandfather talking about the 1918 flu epidemic. He said bodies of young and old were everywhere. People were frightened and could do nothing about the disease. Apparently one has to go back to the plague to find anything similar.

If this thing takes a run at mankind again it will be much worse.

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Desideria (Moderator) says on Oct 14, 2005, 15:31:

the avian flu has reached Europe now. There's an outbreak in Rumania and all fowl imports are stopped. No more chicken on my table!
Cheers,
Desi

A fronte praecipitium a tergo lupi

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DonkeyDust says on Oct 14, 2005, 17:25:

""Again, I am NOT saying this thing is going to mutate and go global, but at what strength is anybody's guess.""

Well it could mutate 100 times... if one hundred people had the flue and each got infected from a bird...

My cousin just showed us a little pack of a few tablets of tamiflu that he just got for $60 CDN.

I told a buddy about that and he got excited and asked his doctor...the doctor knew nothing about the tamiflu pills.

So my buddy went on the internet this morning and found info that leads him to believe that the tamiflue drug will be probably useless.

Now I know that goes against comtemporary thinking but ... there are two sides to this coin apparently.

I was thinking at first that it would be my responibilty to get enough for at least my immediate family. $260 lotto ticket I guess.

Latitudes, graditudes, attitudes & platitudes.

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DonkeyDust says on Oct 14, 2005, 17:52:

Don't read this if you can't think outa the box. Garlic, lemon or lime and honey.

I have used this for 6 or 7 years with fantastic results against "colds".
I get the flue shot so I don't get the flue anyway.
Since I have been taking my potion I have had 2 colds. Both sever. One lasted 10 days the other 3. This year I won't count as when I went to Mexico last winter I got outof sync with the daily ritual and had trouble getting back into it.

crush the garlic and chop one clove. some doctor, in a report, said let it sit for 20 minutes to let the two active chemicals react in it. Then drink it like a pill. double up with one at night also if you feel sypmtoms coming on.

I use about 1 part lime juice to 3 or 4 parts water and 2 or 3 teaspoons of honey (or splenda), for a total of about 600 mililiters /day.
Time honered remedy for the Gripe in Latin America.
Add multi vitamin, +zinc supplement 50 milgrm (toxic so dont use unless your coming down with it)

Not so time honored is my own sprAy...that would take too long to explain how I came onto it but I am pretty sure it will work so I have some in the fridge now and I am practicing with it.
Premis: Apparently virus' incubate in the sinus cavities (colds do...I don't know about the flue).
concoction: 50 MLS of water, maybe 1/6 tspn salt for lubrication and a couple of seriously crushed garlic cloves. Soak the cloves in the saline solution for a few minutes and remove all traces of material.
Then if any symptom of sore throat etc come at the very least sniff it deep into your sinu cavity. Or go extreme and lay on the floor, put the squeeze container to your nose and slowy fill up your sinus then the other while you plug the one to create a vacum and stopit from running down your throat.
then get up and walk around for a few minutes folowed by a purging into a sink. This is not for the weak of heart but it certianly can be done. I did it after a nose operation in which my doctor directed me to clean my sinus' regularly until i was healed. Very successful operation and I could breathe normally for the first time in 40 years.
I dont believe in ecanasia (sp??) or ginsing but must check backnotes for other possible helpers.

The bad part...my kids will never do it . And thats pretty fn crazy when you think...it might work... and the alternative is possibly death.

Latitudes, graditudes, attitudes & platitudes.

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Bigfish says on Oct 15, 2005, 12:32:

Thinking out of my box This reminds me a little of the measures employed against the black death in Europe in the middle ages and the "Pocket full of posies..." approach. Folks then thought that the bubonic plague was spread by some sort of nasal miasma and that blocking up the sinuses would somehow keep it at bay. It's an interesting concept, and not an illogical jump...since the stench of the corruption of death might well have been itself the harbinger of other deadly agents. Enfin. There are worse ways to spend the terminal days than sniffing up fragrant concoctions, but this planet, and nature itself, is a great leveller. Like the words of the nursery rhyme....atichoo...atichoo...We will, I'm afraid....all fall down...
Enjoy what you can while you can.
Yours in death
Bigfish

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BAQ says on Oct 22, 2005, 12:44:

Wonder if South American would follow suit. China to shut borders if bird flu mutates
Reuters - Sat Oct 22,12:20 PM ET
HONG KONG - China will close its borders if it finds a single case of human-to-human transmission of bird flu there, a Hong Kong newspaper reported on Saturday, while a defiant Taiwan said it would copy a patented antiviral drug. Saving lives would be Beijing's top priority in efforts to contain a possible outbreak of bird flu, even if it meant slowing the economy, Huang Jiefu, a vice minister of health, was quoted as saying by the South China Morning Post.

Semper Fidelis !

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Colombiche says on Oct 22, 2005, 23:42:

What?????

No me den trago extranjero, que es caro y no sabe a bueno.... (Rafael Godoy)

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platano says on Oct 23, 2005, 00:46:

...considering using the military...to enforce the quarantine... ...considering using the military... to enforce the quarantine...

If he does that, it will be my patriotic duty to follow the crowd into the stadiums.

He is the President and knows what is best for us.

plátano

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BAQ says on Oct 24, 2005, 13:05:

Cayenne Pepper !!!!! Umm, if the flu don;t kill ya, a good strong dose of Cayenne Pepper should do it hahahahha, OR, it will stangle that old flu.

For ONCE in my life, I agree with the Commie Chineese, SCREW THE PATENT HOLDERS and the drug companies. When only ONE COMPANY wants to hold onto a vaccine patent and places $$$ before saving lives, screw em. My reply would be SUE ME !!!!

Semper Fidelis !

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Hunter says on Oct 24, 2005, 13:24:

BAQ First of all there is no vaccine, there can never be a vaccine, until they have something to vaccinate against, which even if the problem appeared tommorow, it could take 6 months plus to develop a vaccine.

Roche paid for the research, so they should reap the profits, if everybody worked on the premisise "sue me", who would bother to develop any drugs.

As to there being a mass epidemic, I ALWAYS ignore the media, they love to scaremonger, in the 20th Century, there were three bird flu related epidemics, the two in the 50s and 60s, killed approx a million people each, the one after the first world war killed many more as the media keep telling us.

At the end of the WW1, there were a lot of soldiers and refuges living in confined conditions, moving in bulk to differant Countries and shortgaes of food, all the perfect breeding ground for spreading flu and other medical problems, I would tend to take examples of the 50s and 60s as examples of what could happen, but reduce the percentage of deaths greatly, because of more modern economies.

On the subject of deaths, there is little point in saying that it has a 50% survival rate, because there may have been many other people infected, who didn't show any simptons, or only minor ones, only the most sever would have gone to the doctor/hospital.

My 2 cents.

Hunter

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cochopechocho says on Oct 24, 2005, 13:34:

Excuss me, but...... Until the avian virus mutates there really isn't much to worry about. And it may never mutate.

Some of you guys give new meaning to the saying "prepare for the worst and hope for the best".

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BAQ says on Oct 24, 2005, 15:05:

You are correct Yep, "prepare for the worst and hope for the best". Thats what I live by. "Tis better to have and not need than need and not have".

Military teaches it, law enforcement teaches it, both of which I served for many years. Guess I take a different view of things, maybe because I have seen the consequences of being "Ill prepared".

Not making any judgements on anyone if they choose not to, but for me, it works.

HUNTER - You are correct, there is no vaccine, I mis spoke. I was refering to the Tamiflu. What frosts my ass about that is ROACHE knows they can;t make enough to supply the whole world and it takes 10 months to make that drug.yet the patent seems more important than supplying the drug.

Maybe ONE good thing to come out of this is that companies are now looking at synthasized vaccines. They have the technology but have been using the chick egg route for years. Also, it appears the Govt is going to shield the drug companies from lawsuits for making these new strain flu vacines, so maybe there is some hope.

Just a thought

Semper Fidelis !

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cochopechocho says on Oct 24, 2005, 17:14:

BAQ I hardly know you and you're starting to scare me.

Are you one of those guys with a stock pile of guns ammo and food waiting for the end of the world?

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BAQ says on Oct 24, 2005, 17:55:

Nope No, I guess I just see life through a different set of life experiences.

Semper Fidelis !

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cochopechocho says on Oct 24, 2005, 18:49:

Something tragic must have happened. You know no matter how much you prepare, bad shit can still happen and it isn't your fault.

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Gator says on Oct 24, 2005, 20:01:

It's... hard to know someone, cochopechocho, when you have been a member for 1 day 8 hours.

"Bene, cum Latine nescias, nolo manus meas in te maculare" .

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Tinto (Moderator) says on Oct 24, 2005, 21:11:

Good point We might all be chimpanzees with typing skills and internet access.

I wanted access to health care, housing and education, but, no, I get potholes, trash and silicone tits instead. -Desi.

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Miguel says on Oct 24, 2005, 22:49:

Another view From Stratfor Special Report: The Bird Flu and You
Stratfor subscribers have been sending us a steady river of requests for our opinion on the bird flu situation. Although we are not medical experts, among our sources are those who are. And here is what we have been able to conclude based on their input and our broader analysis of the bird flu threat:

Calm down.

Now let us qualify that: Since December 2003, the H5N1 bird flu virus -- which has caused all the ruckus -- has been responsible for the documented infection of 121 people, 91 one of whom caught the virus in Vietnam. In all cases where information on the chain of infection has been confirmed, the virus was transmitted either by repeated close contact with fowl or via the ingestion of insufficiently cooked chicken products. In not a single case has human-to-human communicability been confirmed. So long as that remains the case, there is no bird flu threat to the human population of places such as Vietnam at large, much less the United States.





The Politics of Genetics

An uncomfortable but undeniable fact is that there are a great many people and institutions in this world that have a vested interest in feeding the bird flu scare. Much like the "Y2K" bug that commanded public attention in 1999, bird flu is all you hear about. Comparisons to the 1918 Spanish influenza have produced death toll projections in excess of 360 million, evoking images of chaos in the streets.

One does not qualify for funding -- whether for academic research, medical development or contingency studies -- by postulating about best-case scenarios. The strategy is to show up front how bad things could get, and to scare your targeted benefactors into having you study the problem and manufacture solutions.

This hardly means that these people are evil, greedy or irresponsible (although, in the case of Y2K or when a health threat shuts down agricultural trade for years, one really tends to wonder). It simply means that fear is an effective way to spark interest and action.

Current medical technology lacks the ability to cure -- or even reliably vaccinate against -- highly mutable viral infections; the best available medicines can only treat symptoms -- like Roche's Tamiflu, which is becoming as scarce as the oftentimes legendary red mercury -- or slow a virus' reproduction rate. Is more research needed? Certainly. But are we on the brink of a cataclysmic outbreak? Certainly not.

A bird flu pandemic among the human population is broadly in the same category as a meteor strike. Of course it will happen sooner or later -- and when it does, watch out! But there is no -- absolutely no -- particular reason to fear a global flu pandemic this flu season.

This does not mean the laws of nature have changed since 1918; it simply means there is no way to predict when an animal virus will break into the human population in any particular year -- or even if it will at all. Yes, H5N1 does show a propensity to mutate; and, yes, sooner or later another domesticated animal disease will cross over into the human population (most common human diseases have such origins). But there is no scientifically plausible reason to expect such a crossover to be imminent.

But if you are trying to find something to worry about, you should at least worry about the right thing.

A virus can mutate in any host, and pound for pound, the mutations that are of most interest to humanity are obviously those that occur within a human host. That means that each person who catches H5N1 due to a close encounter of the bird kind in effect becomes a sort of laboratory that could foster a mutation and that could have characteristics that would allow H5N1 to be communicable to other humans. Without such a specific mutation, bird flu is a problem for turkeys, but not for the non-turkey farmers among us.

But we are talking about a grand total of 115 people catching the bug over the course of the past three years. That does not exactly produce great odds for a virus -- no matter how genetically mutable -- to evolve successfully into a human-communicable strain. And bear in mind that the first-ever human case of H5N1 was not in 2003 but in 1997. There is not anything fundamentally new in this year's bird flu scare.

A more likely vector, therefore, would be for H5N1 to leap into a species of animal that bears similarities to human immunology yet lives in quarters close enough to encourage viral spread -- and lacks the capacity to complete detailed questionnaires about family health history.

The most likely candidate is the pig. On many farms, birds and pigs regularly intermingle, allowing for cross-infection, and similar pig-human biology means that pigs serving in the role as mutation incubator are statistically more likely than the odd Vietnamese raw-chicken eater to generate a pandemic virus.

And once the virus mutates into a form that is pig-pig transferable, a human pandemic is only one short mutation away. Put another way, a bird flu pandemic among birds is manageable. A bird flu pandemic among pigs is not, and is nearly guaranteed to become a human pandemic.

Pandemics: Past and Future

What precisely is a pandemic? The short version is that it is an epidemic that is everywhere. Epidemics affect large numbers of people in a relatively contained region. Pandemics are in effect the same, but without the geographic limitations. In 1854 a cholera epidemic struck London. The European settling of the Americas brought disease pandemics to the Native Americans that nearly eliminated them as an ethnic classification.

In 1918 the influenza outbreak spread in two waves. The first hit in March, and was only marginally more dangerous than the flu outbreaks of the previous six years. But in the trenches of war-torn France, the virus mutated into a new, more virulent strain that swept back across the world, ultimately killing anywhere from 20 million to 100 million people. Some one in four Americans became infected -- nearly all in one horrid month in October, and some 550,000 -- about 0.5 percent of the total population -- succumbed. Playing that figure forward to today's population, theoretically 1.6 million Americans would die. Suddenly the fear makes a bit more sense, right?




Wrong.

There are four major differences between the 1918 scenario and any new flu pandemic development:


First -- and this one could actually make the death toll higher -- is the virus itself.

No one knows how lethal H5N1 (or any animal pathogen) would be if it adapted to human hosts. Not knowing that makes it impossible to reliably predict the as-yet-unmutated virus' mortality rate.

At this point, the mortality rate among infected humans is running right at about 50 percent, but that hardly means that is what it would look like if the virus became human-to-human communicable. Remember, the virus needs to mutate before it is a threat to humanity -- there is no reason to expect it to mutate just once. Also, in general, the more communicable a disease becomes the lower its mortality rate tends to be. A virus -- like all life forms -- has a vested interest in not wiping out its host population.

One of the features that made the 1918 panic so unnerving is the "W" nature of the mortality curve. For reasons unknown, the virus proved more effective than most at killing people in the prime of their lives -- those in the 15- to 44-year-old age brackets. While there is no reason to expect the next pandemic virus to not have such a feature, similarly there is no reason to expect the next pandemic virus to share that feature.


Second, 1918 was not exactly a "typical" year.

World War I, while coming to a close, was still raging. The war was unique in that it was fought largely in trenches, among the least sanitary of human habitats. Soldiers not only faced degrading health from their "quarters" in wartime, but even when they were not fighting at the front they were living in barracks. Such conditions ensured that they were: a) not in the best of health, and b) constantly exposed to whatever airborne diseases afflicted the rest of their unit.

As such, the military circumstances and style of the war ensured that soldiers were not only extraordinarily susceptible to catching the flu, but also extraordinarily susceptible to dying of it. Over half of U.S. war dead in World War I -- some 65,000 men -- were the result not of combat but of the flu pandemic.

And it should be no surprise that in 1918, circulation of military personnel was the leading vector for infecting civilian populations the world over. Nevertheless, while the United States is obviously involved in a war in 2005, it is not involved in anything close to trench warfare, and the total percentage of the U.S. population involved in Iraq and Afghanistan -- 0.005 percent -- is middling compared to the 2.0 percent involvement in World War I.


Third, health and nutrition levels have radically changed in the past 87 years. Though fears of obesity and insufficient school lunch nutrition are all the rage in the media, no one would seriously postulate that overall American health today is in worse shape than it was in 1918. The healthier a person is going into a sickness, the better his or her chances are of emerging from it. Sometimes it really is just that simple.

Indeed, a huge consideration in any modern-day pandemic is availability of and access to medical care. Poorer people tend to live in closer quarters and are more likely to have occupations (military, services, construction, etc.) in which they regularly encounter large numbers of people. According to a 1931 study of the 1918 flu pandemic by the U.S. Public Health Service, the poor were about 20 percent to 30 percent more likely to contract the flu, and overall mortality rates of the "well-to-do" were less than half that of the "poor" and "very poor."


But the fourth factor, which will pull some of the strength out of any new pandemic, is even more basic than starting health: antibiotics. The 1918 pandemic virus was similar to the more standard influenza virus in that the majority of those who perished died not from the primary attack of the flu but from secondary infections -- typically bacteria or fungal -- that triggered pneumonia. While antibiotics are hardly a silver bullet and they are useless against viruses, they raise the simple possibility of treatment for bacterial or fungal illnesses. Penicillin -- the first commercialized antibiotic -- was not discovered until 1929, 11 years too late to help when panic gripped the world in 1918.

"There is nothing lower than the human race...except for the French." - Mark Twain 1878-79

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BAQ says on Oct 25, 2005, 11:55:

MIGUEL GIGUEL, THANKS for the post - VERY GOOD INFO

Semper Fidelis !

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Hunter says on Oct 26, 2005, 08:29:

Drug research Interesting article from the Financial Times, regarding non-pharmaceutical companies drug research, related to parts of this thread, so I thought I would post it:

The Wellcome Trust, the medical charity, has donated £8m to Dundee University for a pioneering initiative to conduct drug development work normally undertaken only by pharmaceutical companies.

Dundee's School of Life Science will use one of the largest single grants provided by Wellcome to bridge the gap with academia by creating a commercial-style unit with 16 scientists hired from industry.

They will work alongside its researchers to develop new treatments for three of the developing world's most "neglected" diseases: African sleeping sickness, Chagas' disease and leishmaniasis.

The aim is to recruit specialists from within industry, offering them comparable salaries above academic rates, combined with the pension and other fringe benefits of the university. In exchange, they will provide skills that could be useful to academics and which will help to accelerate new drug development.

Alan Fairlamb, professor of biochemistry at the university, said: "We will make use of the best industry skills and combine them with academic know-how, creating a team of the sort of size that might exist in a small biotechnology company. I think there is cause for optimism."

The action comes after several decades during which pharmaceutical companies have withdrawn from research into neglected diseases because the potential profits are not judged worth the risks, and both business and academia have become more firm about intellectual property controls at the expense of sharing ideas.

Academics have also traditionally proved reluctant or unable to work successfully on drug development, with an incentive structure geared to peer-reviewed publication of pure research.

Prof Fairlamb queried the estimates made by the pharmaceutical industry of the $800m (£452m) cost of developing a new drug. "One could argue they over-inflate the numbers in order to justify their profits," he said.

"Our approach could be-come a new paradigm. People will be watching very closely and we are acutely aware we need to make this work or we will get our fingers whacked by the pharmaceutical industry as proof academics can't make drugs."

Once new drugs were ready for clinical trials, some pharmaceutical companies, such as those in India and China, might be more willing to produce them.

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treeshark2 says on Oct 26, 2005, 12:31:

Correct dosage of Tamiflu for H5N1 Twice a day for 8 days. eight days not five so you need to buy two packs of Tamiflu.
Since medicine is an interest of mine; I have been watching this one since Hong Kong destroyed all their chickens a few years back. I had always thought that it was more a question of when rather then if; however I am no longer so sure of that.
Wikipedia has an excellent entry about it all. see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H5N1

this is from wikipedia and Miguel perhaps underplayed this aspect a bit. Excellent info and writng Miguel by the way.

Pig cases

In February 2004, avian influenza virus was detected in pigs in Vietnam, increasing fears of the emergence of new variant strains. In May 2005, the occurrence of Avian influenza in pigs in Indonesia was reported ("swine flu"). Along with the continuing pattern of virus circulation in poultry, the occurrence in swine raises the level of concern about the possible evolution of the virus into a strain capable of causing a global human influenza pandemic. Health experts say pigs can carry human influenza viruses, which can combine (i.e. exchange homologous genome sub-units by genetic reassortment.) with the avian virus, swap genes and mutate into a form which can pass easily among humans.

Personally I will try to keep up with reports about "swine flu" right now.

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Hunter says on Oct 27, 2005, 11:26:

FT again Taiwan use of bird flu drug raises legal fears

Taiwan’s preparations to develop a generic version of a patented bird flu drug have given rise to speculation that the island could use fear of a pandemic as an opportunity to strengthen its pharmaceutical industry.

Taipei stepped up efforts this week to prepare for local production of oseltamivir, which Roche markets under the name Tamiflu. It is considered to be the most effective treatment for bird flu.


The health department has said it will apply for approval with the patent office for compulsory licensing of oseltamivir, while two local companies said they had made small amounts of the drug under a government programme.


Su Ih-jen, head of the clinical research department at the National Health Research Institute, one of two government-run bodies running the oseltamivir programme, argues that as long as the companies stop short of making the final product, no patents are being violated.


But that view is contested.


“This is government- sponsored theft in a way,” said Jeffrey Harris, managing director of Orient Commercial Enquiries, who has been investigating patent infringements in Taiwan for decades. “Nobody can make the Roche drug without Roche. There are design patents, copyrights on ingredients and patents on formulations, so you inevitably touch upon some.”


Pharmaceuticals companies have long complained that their intellectual property rights are at risk in Taiwan because the proprietary information they must submit to register a drug locally is not protected from referral to or use by others.


“We have a unique situation with regard to drug registration in most Asian countries, but Taiwan is unique among the unique,” said Mr Harris. “On top of that, you have a government that is increasingly advocating generic and local manufacturing.”


Taiwan’s small home market and its companies’ limited research capabilities have restrained the sector’s development.


“The government institutions running the oseltamivir programme also regularly do contract research work for local companies. That means the government’s pandemic prevention effort and industrial policy are overlapping,” said a foreign pharmaceutical executive.

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treeshark2 says on Oct 27, 2005, 18:31:

Star Anise Decided to do bit of reading on various flu subjects. Decided to follow GringoDeLouis idea on ways to strengthen immune system.

see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star_anise

However I also found this from the article.
Although it is produced in most autotrophic organisms, star anise is the industrial source of shikimic acid, a primary ingredient used to create the anti-flu drug Tamiflu. Tamiflu is regarded as the most promising drug to mitigate the severity of bird flu (H5N1); however, reports indicate that some forms of the virus has already adapted to Tamiflu.

A shortage of star anise is one of the key reasons why there is a worldwide shortage of Tamiflu (as at 2005). Star anise is grown in four provinces in China and harvested between March and May. The shikimic acid is extracted from the seeds in a ten-stage manufacturing process which takes a year. 90% of the harvest is already used by the Swiss pharmaceutical manufacturer Roche in making Tamiflu

By the way this type of problem occurs quite often in the production of medicines in the Pharmaceutical industry.

At least you now know what the problem with Tamiflu production really is. For the want of a nail a shoe is lost,,,,,,,,,,,,,

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poco says on Oct 27, 2005, 19:49:

Hunger is around the corner People will starve in Colombia if something happens to the chickens.

I have a guard for mine.

Colombian Chickens are crowing about the new President of the U.S. who will assure that From each according to their ability to each according to their need.

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treeshark2 says on Oct 28, 2005, 18:21:

If you live in Colombia, keep calm Sorry that I am not very good writng. Have been doing mucho reading. Miguel's Stratfor article is very close.
However it is fair to say that the real truth of what is going on is not really coming out. Mainland China is "covering up" what is going on there. Perhaps between one or two hundred people have died. But at least the government is trying to contain the problem.
Indonesia. Wow.Health experts say the Indonesian epidemic started in commercial poultry farms, spread among the tens of millions of free-range chickens raised in back yards across the country and then finally infected people. But it started over two years ago. Indonesian officials covered up and then neglected a spreading bird flu epidemic for two years.
No one knows how many people have had the H5N1 bird flu. Governments have a very keen interest in keeping the numbers low. quarantine of a country would have very adverse effects on economies. There are problems with tests to determine if a person even has H5N1.
It does appear that both bird to human and human to human transmission is occuring. It seems that over a hundred people caught H5N1 from visiting a zoo in Indonesia.
But at this time I would not worry about H5N1. If I was a bird in Asia or a chicken farmer in Indonesia, I would worry like hell. Even though H5N1 has been raging in the Indonesia chicken population, it took over 2 years for large numbers of people to contact the flu. And truthfully the death toll has been very low.

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BAQ says on Oct 31, 2005, 10:50:

Now in NORTH AMERICA Just an update, CNN just announced that the bird flu has been found in birds in Canada.

I realize this is bird to bird and has not mutated, but thought it was interesting that this thing is apparently now spreading quicker. Jumped from the UK to Canada in a matter of weeks.

I hope this thing never mutates.

Semper Fidelis !

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Hunter says on Nov 1, 2005, 03:20:

BAQ They are migrating birds, some of them could have had the avian flu in previouse years, but nobody wen out and checked before, not the same strain apparently either:

Canada finds flu in ducks, H5N1 strain unlikely
OTTAWA, Oct 31 (Reuters)

Canada has discovered a strain of H5 avian flu in 33 wild migratory ducks but it is unlikely to be the killer H5N1 strain which has spread from Southeast Asia to Europe, a top health official said on Monday.


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Jim Clark of the Canadian Food Inspection Agency said a recent survey of 4,800 wild birds had found the H5 virus in 28 birds in the eastern province of Quebec and five in the central province of Manitoba.

“These findings do not indicate that we are dealing with a virus strain capable of causing significant illness,” Clark told a news conference.

“The evidence we have observed strongly indicates that these healthy birds were not infected with the same virus that is currently present in Asia,” he said.

The final tests on the bird samples will be ready in about a week. There are nine known N strains of the H5 virus.

Questioned on why he was announcing the discovery of a nonlethal strain of bird flu, Clark said, “I can’t categorically state that what we’re dealing with here isn’t H5N1. It’s highly unlikely.”

The H5N1 strain was transmitted from Asia to Europe by migratory birds and some experts say it is likely to spread to the rest of the world. Experts fear that H5N1 will mutate just enough to allow it to pass easily from person to person, potentially causing a catastrophic pandemic as humans lack immunity to it.

At least 62 people have died from bird flu in an outbreak which started in Southeast Asia in late 2003.

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